After the implementation of the 20 13 two-child policy, the effect is not satisfactory. By the end of 20 14, 12, less than10 million single couples had applied for another birth, while the official estimate was that the number would increase by about 2 million every year. At the same time, the Economic Blue Book: Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 20 15 published by China Academy of Social Sciences holds that the current total fertility rate in China is only 1.4, far below the replacement level of 2. 1, and very close to the internationally recognized "low fertility trap" of 1.3.
The country's full liberalization of the second child can increase the fertility rate, but there will be no explosive population growth. After the implementation of the new two-child policy, the birth scale of 20 17 and 20 18 may increase greatly. As for how high the growth is, it depends on the future data. Lu Jiehua, a population expert, said, "This is definitely higher than not letting go. It is normal to have accumulation, and there is a problem without accumulation. Now people are more rational about fertility. After all, there are many subjective and objective influences. "
2. The labor force population in China has been declining for three consecutive years, so the New Deal should deal with the disappearance of the demographic dividend.
As the most populous country in the world, China's population structure has been seriously distorted. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics at the beginning of this year, the working-age population aged 16-59 decreased by 37 1 10,000 last year and by more than 2.44 million in 20 13. The population of this age group decreased for the first time in 20 12, and the population of 15-59 decreased by 3.45 million.
China has gradually entered an aging society, which has brought some adverse effects to the economic development of China. China's full liberalization of two children can effectively solve the problem of labor supply, reduce labor costs and relieve the pressure of traditional labor-intensive industries. Lu Jiehua said that this will also help to provide more resources for the elderly in the future. After all, our country mainly provides for the aged at home, which is also a way to solve the problem of providing for the aged in the future and provide a favorable population environment.
3. Facing the sadness of "losing independence" helps to straighten out the family structure.
Yang Jianhua, director of the Institute of Public Policy of Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences, said that the full liberalization of the second child at this node is of great positive significance in promoting the rationalization of China's population structure from a macro perspective; From the microscopic point of view, it is also helpful to straighten out the population structure of each family, especially to alleviate the pain of families who have lost their independence to a certain extent.
The negative effects of the unreasonable family structure of the only child are prominent, and the pension, children's education and even the personality development of the only child have become problems. From the perspective of social security, the one-child family is essentially a risky family, and the risk lies in its uniqueness. According to relevant statistics, at present, more than one million families have lost their parents, No Country for Old Men. This kind of pain could have been avoided by adjusting the birth policy. Therefore, the full liberalization of the second child has a positive and effective role in optimizing the family structure.