How to do economic work in the second half of the year? The main leaders of central ministries and commissions such as the Central Bank, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Commerce have made intensive speeches recently.
On August 9th, Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, made the latest statement on the trend of monetary policy in the second half of the year. In an interview with the media, he said that the monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and accurate, and the policies that have been introduced to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment should be effectively implemented.
Not only in Yi Gang, according to the first financial statistics, in recent days, the main leaders of the central ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Commerce have also voiced their voices intensively. This is an important signal that the main leaders of the central ministries and commissions made a centralized voice on the specific work deployment after the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting set the tone for economic work in late last month.
According to the information disclosed by ministers, in the specific work in the second half of the year, relevant ministries and commissions will grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and promote the domestic and international double cycle. Smart retail, online education, and automobile appliances will become important areas to boost consumption in the second half of the year, and developing county consumption is the focus and potential of expanding domestic demand this time. Promoting the fields of "two new and one heavy", public health, transportation and energy is an important focus for stabilizing investment, and promoting the rebound of private investment has become an important starting point for stabilizing investment in the second half of the year.
How to proceed with fiscal and monetary policies in the second half of the year?
The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on July 30th pointed out that to do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, we should adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability and firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to ensure that macro policies are effective. Fiscal policy should be more active and pragmatic. Monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and precise.
Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, said in an interview with the media on August 6 that as of July 29, of the directly managed10.7 trillion yuan, the provincial financial departments have refined10.5 trillion yuan, and the municipal and county financial departments have refined to10.29 trillion yuan. In order to do a good job in the "six guarantees" work, implement the "six guarantees" task, and implement tax reduction and fee reduction, by July 30, 1 trillion yuan of special epidemic prevention treasury bonds had all been issued.
In order to make the newly-increased financial funds take the "through train" to the grassroots level in cities and counties, benefiting enterprises and people, the Ministry of Finance has established a special transfer payment mechanism, built an institutional system covering the whole process of fund allocation, disbursement, use and supervision, and developed a direct reporting monitoring system for all levels of finance in China Unicom to realize the whole chain and whole process monitoring.
He said that in the next step, fiscal policy will focus on the implementation of the "six guarantees" task. Among them, to ensure the employment of residents is to comprehensively strengthen the employment priority policy and support the employment of key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers and retired military personnel. To ensure the basic livelihood, that is, to do a good job in the construction of inclusive, basic and comprehensive livelihood, to do a good job in key protection for unemployed people, college graduates, people in difficulty and retirees, and to resolutely win the battle against poverty. Protect market players, that is, focus on supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and industries that have been hit hard by the epidemic, and implement various tax reduction and fee reduction policies and measures to help enterprises maintain their stocks, capital chains and jobs.
Ensuring food and energy security means building and improving the policy system and institutional mechanism of financial support for the implementation of rural revitalization strategy, and fully ensuring the supply of food and important agricultural products. To ensure the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, that is, to give full play to the structural control advantages of fiscal and taxation policies, support the opening of "blocking points" and "breaking points" of the industrial chain supply chain, accelerate the promotion of enterprises to resume production and market, stabilize the foreign trade and foreign capital base, and ensure the manufacturing of Chinese enterprises. To ensure grass-roots operation, that is, to increase support for local financial resources, alleviate the pressure of fiscal expenditure brought about by the slowdown of local income growth, and firmly grasp the bottom line of "three guarantees".
In an interview on August 9th, Yi Gang said that a variety of monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale to be significantly higher than last year. At the same time, we should pay attention to grasp the rhythm, optimize the structure, and promote the reasonable growth of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans and medium and long-term loans in manufacturing.
This is the third time in a week that the central bank has expressed its position on monetary policy.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, in order to cope with the impact of the epidemic, the central bank has adopted a financial policy of "expanding the total volume, ensuring supply, promoting growth, lowering interest rates, adjusting the structure and ensuring the main body" and achieved remarkable results.
At present, China's economy has recovered for the first time in the world. In the second quarter, China's GDP rebounded strongly, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, making it the only major economy with positive growth in the world. Yi Gang said: "On the whole, China's characteristics of great economic potential and sufficient resilience have not changed. China's economic growth will continue to recover in the second half of the year, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. "
With the sustained recovery of economic growth, the loose monetary policy in the previous period will be adjusted. Yi Gang said that in the second half of the year, the central bank will maintain a moderate and reasonable growth in the total financial volume, focus on stabilizing enterprises' employment, prevent and resolve major financial risks, accelerate the deepening of financial reform and opening up, and promote healthy economic and financial development.
Ming Ming, chief analyst of fixed income of CITIC Securities, told reporters: "In terms of total amount, moderate monetary policy should be relaxed rather than flooded. In fact, this is the continuation of the monetary policy operation since the second quarter, that is, the liquidity has decreased and the open market operating interest rate has remained stable. According to this tone, the stable currency will run through the second half of the year. "
Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, also told CBN: "Monetary policy depends on the trend of economic operation. With the gradual improvement of the national economy and the gradual easing of deflation, the policy trend in June and July will continue, and the monetary policy will not be too loose, but will remain stable. The probability of RRR reduction and interest rate cut in August is low. "
Relevant data show that as of July 27th, 1 trillion refinancing and rediscount policy have supported local corporate banks to issue preferential interest rate loans totaling 457.3 billion yuan. "At present, there is still a rediscount quota of 542.7 billion yuan for refinancing, and monetary policy tools directly invested in the real economy will also play a role one after another. Relatively speaking, the probability of a targeted reduction in the deposit reserve ratio is very small. " Clearly said.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that based on the analysis of the monetary policy implementation report in the second quarter, the possibility of the central bank lowering the MLF tender interest rate, the 7-day reverse repo rate and other policy interest rates will be reduced in the second half of the year, but the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises, including the general loan interest rate of enterprises, will still maintain a rapid downward trend.
Stabilize foreign investment and foreign trade and expand domestic demand.
When judging the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said recently that "the main task in the second half of the year is to stabilize the basic market of foreign trade and foreign capital, promote the development of domestic consumption, and promote the domestic and international double cycle."
In the second half of the year, China's foreign trade faced a more complicated and severe situation. The impact of the world economic downturn on demand will be further manifested, the supply chain of the industrial chain will be blocked, and the survival pressure of foreign trade enterprises will still be great. Efforts should be made to stabilize the main body of foreign trade, the industrial chain and supply chain, and the status of a global trading power.
"The Ministry of Commerce will increase policy support and promote the introduction and implementation of a series of stable poverty alleviation policies such as export tax rebate, foreign trade credit, export credit insurance, and export to domestic sales, so that policies can benefit more foreign trade enterprises, encourage enterprises to innovate and develop, and stimulate their vitality." Zhong Shan said.
"China has a huge market with a population of 654.38+0.4 billion and a perfect industrial supporting system, and the business environment is constantly improving. I believe that smart foreign businessmen will never give up the China market. " Zhong Shan said that in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on three aspects, focusing on stabilizing the stock of foreign capital, expanding the increment of foreign capital, and maintaining the status of a big country in utilizing foreign capital.
In the second half of the year, we will strive to expand domestic demand. Zhongshan said that efforts should be made to innovate circulation and promote consumption, including promoting urban consumption, expanding rural consumption and developing service consumption.
How to promote the strategy of expanding domestic demand? Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China has a population of 654.38+0.4 billion, with a middle-income group of over 400 million, and the domestic market is vast. We should actively expand consumer demand, implement consumption policies, guide consumption direction, improve consumption environment and improve consumption capacity.
To expand domestic demand, we should give full play to the basic role of consumption in economic growth. Zhe said that in the second half of the year, China will accelerate the high-quality development of new consumption such as smart retail and online education, promote the transformation and upgrading of automobile and household appliances consumption, encourage cities with restricted purchases to appropriately increase the purchase quota of automobiles, relax the purchase restriction of new energy vehicles, and give appropriate subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles.
The sudden epidemic has made consumption move from offline to online, and new consumption such as online education, telecommuting, live broadcast with goods and door-to-door delivery has become popular, which not only effectively matches the supply and demand sides, stimulates consumption compensation, but also profoundly affects industrial form, people's livelihood security and other aspects.
According to industry analysis, new consumption is a new breakthrough in the field of consumption, which will be a great weapon to stimulate consumption recovery, expand domestic demand and promote a more stable domestic cycle. The function of new consumption is to let consumers get more consumption services by reducing transaction costs, improving consumption experience and speeding up consumption under the condition of constant consumer income, which is manifested in the phenomenon of increased consumption and upgrading consumption in total.
For example, smart retail requires retail to fundamentally improve efficiency and reduce costs, behind which is the joint promotion and in-depth cooperation in the fields of logistics, Internet, science and technology. Once the smart retail develops rapidly, it means the reduction of transaction costs in the process of consumption, which in turn stimulates consumption growth.
The transformation and upgrading of automobile and home appliance consumption will also inject vitality into boosting consumption. In the first half of the year, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have played a supporting policy "combination boxing". For example, the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption" proposes to gradually relax or cancel the purchase restriction of automobiles; The Notice on Several Measures to Stabilize and Expand Automobile Consumption clearly extends the subsidy policy for purchasing new energy vehicles until the end of 2022. Policies and measures to loosen restrictions on purchases in various places have also been introduced. Since August 1 day, Beijing has issued 20,000 new energy minibus indicators for "car-free families" at one time.
"One more thing, the development of county consumption gathering areas is the focus of expanding domestic demand this time, and it is also a place with great potential for consumption development. For example, the renovation of the pedestrian street in the county requires loan support, and some corporate bonds can be issued to support this renovation, so that China's consumption is not only in big cities, but also in medium-sized cities and counties. " Ning Zhen Ji said.
On July 30th, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference pointed out that new urbanization should be used to drive investment and consumption demand, and the innovation of system and mechanism for the integrated development of urban agglomeration and metropolitan area should be promoted.
Feng Kui, a researcher at China City and Small Town Reform and Development Center, believes that from the perspective of demand, the promotion of urbanization will expand domestic demand, increase investment, and tap the maximum potential of China's long-term growth. In the long run, we must firmly take the road of urbanization, absorb and train new citizens, and continue to expand the scale of middle-income groups.
Attract private capital into new fields such as "two new and one heavy"
In terms of investment, Zhe said that it is necessary to effectively expand investment demand, promote "two innovations and one highlight" (that is, new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major projects), intensify efforts to fill shortcomings in public health, emergency material reserves, transportation, energy and other fields, implement urban renewal, and accelerate the transformation of old urban communities.
Zhe stressed that investment in the national budget, local special bonds and special anti-epidemic treasury bonds should be invested in projects, directly to enterprises and projects, and funds should follow the projects.
Private investment accounts for nearly 60% of the total social investment, which is an important force for stabilizing investment and an important starting point for doing a good job in stabilizing investment in the second half of the year.
In the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, steady investment, including steady private investment, made positive progress. The decline of private investment in the second quarter was narrower than that in the first quarter 18.6 percentage points. Hunan, Zhejiang and other provinces 1 1 have achieved positive growth in private investment, and the growth rate of private investment in five provinces such as Shanxi and Yunnan has exceeded 8%. However, compared with the whole investment, the growth of private investment is still relatively lagging behind, and more targeted measures must be taken to promote the development of private investment.
Opening major investment fields to private enterprises is an important link to stimulate the vitality of enterprises and tap the potential of private investment. Recently, a series of policies and measures have been intensively introduced from ministries to local governments to attract private capital to enter the field of "two new and one heavy". Zhe stressed that in the second half of the year, China will further improve the private investment environment and increase policy support. Support private investment to enter new fields and encourage private capital to increase investment in areas such as "two new and one heavy".
Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told CBN that the recent frequent landing of private investment stimulus policies is an important measure for us to improve the market-oriented investment and financing mechanism and encourage private capital to participate in social construction, marking the spring of private investment. Among them, "two new and one heavy" is one of the breakthroughs, and it will also become a key area for private investment to show its talents in the future.
Pan Helin said that from the objective conditions, with the gradual promotion of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the government's financial burden has increased, and it is imperative to share part of the burden of government investment with private investment. From the perspective of investment effect, private investment is often less affected by objective factors such as administration, and the investment efficiency will be higher than that of government investment, which will stimulate the economy better.