This unprecedented decline, as early as expected, is just curious about how much it will fall.
On March 9th, Passenger Car Association released the sales data of passenger cars in China in February 2020.
In February, the retail volume of passenger cars in narrow sense was 252,000, down 78.5% year-on-year and 85.3% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, car 124649, MPV 1772 1, SUV 109938.
If the figure of 65,438+10 is counted, the total retail sales of passenger cars in a narrow sense is19.68 million, down 4 1.0% year-on-year.
Compared with 2065438+February 2009, it decreased by 78.5% year-on-year, obviously mainly due to the epidemic situation.
In the narrow sense, only FAW-Volkswagen has more than 30,000 vehicles, ranking first with 30 185 vehicles.
There is only one with more than 20,000 vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen, ranking second with 27,770 vehicles;
Geely Automobile ranks third with 1.96 million vehicles (estimated), and there are four independent brand seats in the list, and the other three are Changan Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Chery Automobile.
Mercedes-Benz is the only luxury brand on the list.
From the production situation, in February, the production of passenger cars in narrow sense was 210.5 million, which was 80.6% lower than that in February. During the period of 1-2 months, the cumulative production of 1.607 million vehicles decreased by 47.8% year-on-year.
In February, the inventory of the automobile market was obvious, and the overall inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,000 units. Comparatively speaking, the factory inventory increased by 200,000 units in February at 201July, which is also the end of the Spring Festival.
In the new energy sector, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger cars in February was 1. 1 10,000 vehicles, down 77.7% year-on-year and 70% quarter-on-quarter.
Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 0.2 million, down 84% year-on-year. The wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 9,000, down 76% year-on-year.
The store has a high rate of returning to work, but the terminal market has not recovered.
Because of the epidemic, before February 10, all the dealerships in China were basically closed, and the retail sales of most dealerships were basically zero in the first three weeks of February.
In March, the situation is gradually changing. According to the survey data of 8,233 4S stores released in china automobile dealers association on March 6th, the rate of returning to work of dealer stores has reached 78.4%.
However, because the epidemic is not over yet, most parts of the country still control the flow of people, so even if the dealership resumes work at this stage, the popularity of the store will not be restored for a while.
On March 9- 10, auto business review made a small-scale survey on the sales of dealers in February.
Changchun Jilin Zhonghai Pentium 4S store officially resumed work on February 25th, with 8- 10 customers coming to the store every day, and the intention to buy a car was clear. General manager Yu Lin said that the store sold more than 70 cars in February, 60% of which were sold offline and 40% online. If calculated by the whole month, the sales volume will drop by about 70% year-on-year; According to the official resumption of work on February 25, the year-on-year decline is about 20%.
There are 8 local FAW Pentium dealerships in Changchun, and the sales volume in February was about 190 vehicles. The sales volume of China Shipping Pentium Store obviously exceeds the local average. And among all the dealerships in this survey, this store has the best sales.
Details of other dealers are as follows:
Jiangyin Sheng Da GAC Toyota dealership: About 30 vehicles were sold in February.
Beijing Beiyuan FAW Toyota dealership: More than 0 units were sold 10 in February.
A self-owned brand dealership in Qiqihar: sold 5 cars (3 new cars and 2 used cars) in February (compared with 60 cars in June 5438+ 10), officially resumed work on March 9, and now sold 2 cars (new car 1, used car 1) in March.
FAW-Volkswagen Dealer: In February, it sold 65,438+0 vehicles, compared with almost 65,438+000 vehicles in the same period last year.
Zhengzhou Exhibition Red Flag Experience Center: It didn't open in February and didn't deliver the car. At present, sales growth is slow. The number of people entering the store decreased by 55% compared with 65438+ 10, the number of online clues decreased by 40% compared with 65438+ 10, and the number of orders decreased by 40% compared with 65438+ 10. However, the pre-sale of Hongqi H9 exceeded expectations and 32 orders have been received.
A self-owned brand dealership in Luoyang: It didn't open in February and didn't sell any cars. It resumed its work on March 3.
A joint venture brand dealership in Qiqihar: It didn't open in February, and it is planned to resume work on a small scale on March 20th.
A car dealer group in Nanjing: quit the network of a marginal independent brand, and there are no cars to sell. Now it's stiff.
Generally speaking, the current automobile terminal consumer market is far from recovering.
The Federation's judgment is that retail sales in the first half of March will show some signs of accelerated recovery due to the delayed release of the original demand in February. Because the tertiary industry is greatly affected by the epidemic, the retail recovery may be weak after mid-March, and the rate of resumption of production is estimated to be faster than that of retail recovery.
Judging from the lifting of the epidemic at the end of April, the Federation expects the auto market to return to normal in May.
After the epidemic, it is unlikely that there will be a retaliatory rebound in consumption.
/kloc-SARS hit 0/7 years ago, which made the Shanghai Auto Show end early. After 17, COVID-19 raged, which led to the postponement of the Beijing Auto Show and the cancellation of the Geneva Auto Show.
In 2003, China's automobile sales reached 4.39 million, a year-on-year increase of 34%. In 2020, after the COVID-19 epidemic, will there be a rebound in sales in the auto market and a peak in car buying?
For this problem, the dealers interviewed by auto business review basically don't think there is the possibility of retaliatory rebound of consumers buying cars. At most, as Villi Yan, general manager of Zhengzhou Dazhan Hongqi Experience Center, said, "There will be a small rebound after the epidemic is unsealed."
Zhao Guihuan, an investor in a car dealership in Heilongjiang, said: "In big cities, cars have reached a considerable degree of saturation, and people in fourth-and fifth-tier cities will hold their wallets tight. Although the epidemic is not a big negative for buying a car, it is definitely not good. "
In his view, this plague has intensified the survival of the fittest in the industry, and the original capital chain has suddenly become unbalanced. Both car manufacturers and dealers are faced with life and death choices.
The sales of a head brand dealer in Beijing in February decreased year-on-year, but it was better than the overall market. The dealer believes that the so-called retaliatory rebound is unlikely. "Everyone is not willing to spend money. Through this epidemic, if the country seizes the opportunity and attaches importance to the entity, it will gradually improve, otherwise consumption will be sluggish in the next few years. "
Yu Lin, general manager of Jilin Zhonghai Pentium 4S Store, said that it is expected that the sales volume will not increase significantly after the epidemic. Many other dealers also believe that the final market situation will be "neither too good nor too bad".
Of course, there is another view that "it's hard to say", but basically most dealers think that there will be no car buying peak after the epidemic.
Faced with such a situation, OEMs and dealers are obviously very anxious.
Zhao Guihuan told auto business review, "At the beginning of March, we could feel the urgency of the OEM's demand for quantity. Now everyone is turning to online sales, but many physical stores are not fully prepared in this regard. "
This year, the auto market is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year.
The Federation remains optimistic
However, some professors believe that there will be a high rebound in the auto market after the epidemic. It is estimated that the overall sales volume of the automobile market in 2020 will be basically the same as last year, and it will remain at around 25 million vehicles. "If some advantageous enterprises have effective marketing operations and quality management, it is possible to achieve an increase of more than 10%."
This is different from the general view in the industry, that is, after more than ten years of rapid growth, China auto market has entered the stock market from the incremental market, and the peak of car purchase after SARS can reappear.
Auto business review believes that the epidemic may lead to an increase in demand for first-time car purchases, and local governments may introduce policies to support car consumption, which may lead to a partial rebound, but it will not change the overall downward trend of the market.
Foshan, Guangzhou, Xiangtan and other places have successively introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption and directly subsidize consumers to buy cars. These policies will boost some sales, and the final effect will not be seen in a short time.
Next, if the national automobile consumption support policy is introduced, it may change the trend of the automobile market to a greater extent.
The Federation believes that if there is no strong stimulus policy at the national level, the negative growth rate of the automobile market in 2020 may further increase, and its annual forecast for the automobile market in 2020 will be lowered from the previous year-on-year decline of 5% to the year-on-year decline of 8%.
This is the second time that the Federation has lowered its forecast for the automobile market in 2020. From 20 19 to 165438+ 10, we still maintain the optimistic judgment that the automobile market will grow 1% in 2020. In just over three months, this optimism disappeared.
However, according to auto business review, the Federation's forecast is still too optimistic.
Sun Yong, an expert in china automobile dealers association and president of Novo Automotive Education Research Institute in China, predicted that "the annual automobile sales volume was about 23.2 million, down 10% year-on-year".
Finally, a little tidbit. It is said that in the recent WeChat group of an auto industry person, Jun A and Jun B made a sales bet.
A Jun believes that May Day this year is the turning point of the auto market, and the monthly sales can reach 3 million vehicles. B Jun believes that the monthly sales in the first half of this year will definitely not reach 2 million units, depending on whether there is a chance to return to the level of 2 million units from September.
They couldn't argue, so they made a bet.
A Jun gambles that the monthly sales volume can reach 2 million units in the first half of the year, and if not, he will send a thousand yuan red envelope in the group. Mr. B said that in the first half of the year, by August, if the monthly sales volume can reach 2 million units, a red envelope of 2,000 yuan will be given.
Readers, whose position are you betting on? Still have different opinions?
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.