A lot of empirical evidence shows that education, as the main way of human capital accumulation, plays an important role in the process of economic growth. On the one hand, as mentioned above, human capital is an important factor affecting the steady-state value of economic growth. Higher education level and higher human capital accumulation level can improve a country's steady-state income level (without affecting the economic growth rate itself). On the other hand, the accumulation of human capital (or education) can also affect the economic growth rate itself and promote economic growth through the following ways: (1) promoting technological progress, (2) improving the ability of the labor force to adopt and adapt to new technologies, and (3) promoting technological innovation and diffusion with positive externalities and increasing social benefits.
By calculating the rate of return on education, especially the social rate of return on education, we can measure the promotion of education to economic growth to a certain extent. In addition, Uzawa-Lucas model can also be used to explain the role of education in economic growth, especially the important role of human capital accumulated through education in promoting technological progress. The model holds that the human capital that reflects the skills of workers is endogenous, and individuals can maximize their wealth by sacrificing current consumption and investing in education and training. In the case of steady-state equilibrium, the stock of human capital must grow at the same speed as that of material capital in order to ensure the sustained economic growth.
Another important model to explain the effect of human capital on economic growth is Becker, Murphy and Tian Cun's BMT model, which theoretically explains the reasons for the imbalance of economic growth levels in different countries in the real world, showing a variety of economic growth models and convergence paths. They believe that there are multiple steady-state economic growth, including high-level growth equilibrium and low-level growth trap, and the level of human capital is the key to determine the steady-state level. In the real world, poor countries are often in a "low steady state" because of their low level of human capital accumulation, which is difficult to break through, just like falling into a "poverty trap". Therefore, developing education and accelerating the accumulation of human capital are the key to jump out of the trap of low-level growth.
Third, the impact of educational development on the sustainability of China's economic growth.
According to the economic development history of other economies, mainly western developed countries, we can find that they have experienced long-term economic growth. A developing country with a low growth level can only achieve the prosperity of the whole economy through long-term sustained growth. Generally speaking, there are two sources of economic growth: one is a lasting source of growth, such as long-term accumulated human capital stock and institutional forms conducive to economic growth; The other is the source of growth that changes with time and place, which is related to the resource endowment of a country at a specific stage of development, such as factors, technology and environment. The sustained growth of a country's economy depends on the sustained growth sources, namely system and human capital. Then, in China, how will education, as the most important way of human capital investment, affect the sustainability of economic growth? The coexistence of absolute differences and conditional convergence in China's economic growth will affect the sustainability of China's economic growth in the future.
It is beneficial to observe other economies that have experienced rapid growth, and then to judge and analyze China's past economic growth. From 1966 to 1990, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province and Singapore Alwyn Young Kong all experienced the golden age of rapid economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 10.3%, 9. 1%, 8.5%,% and 7.3% respectively. However, through the analysis of growth accounting, Yang found that the economic growth of the "four little dragons" in Asia was too dependent on the quantity and quality of capital. Total factor productivity has no significant effect on economic growth; Moreover, there is a big difference between per capita GDP growth and per capita GDP growth, which shows that its growth depends too much on the input of labor force and the improvement of labor participation rate, while the input of capital and labor force cannot be increased indefinitely. Therefore, he questioned the sustainability of the economic growth of the "four little dragons" in Asia. But in fact, the accumulation of human capital of the "four little dragons" in Asia is also very remarkable, and because their human capital model is different from that of the United States, there may be problems in measuring Young.
Looking back on China's economic growth in the past 20 years, the system reform has brought about remarkable improvement in technical efficiency and allocation efficiency, promoted the display of China's comparative advantages, and promoted the sustained and rapid economic growth. During this period, the accumulation of human capital in China has also been greatly improved, which has played a positive role in economic growth. At present, China is still in the period of economic transition, and the system reform is far from over. There is still a long way to go to a more perfect and integrated market economy, and the level of human capital accumulation needs to be further improved. Therefore, institutional reform and human capital will remain the important sources of China's sustained economic growth in the future.
China's economic growth has faced or will face the following problems and challenges:
(1) To continue to increase the stock of human capital, especially for developing countries with very limited resources like ours, it is very important to properly balance physical capital investment and human capital investment.
(2) Inequality has emerged in the process of economic development, including regional inequality, income gap between urban and rural areas, and personal inequality in assets, income and human capital. Inequality is not only a social moral problem, but also affects economic growth. On the one hand, inequality itself is different. The inequality of personal income and assets may have little impact on economic growth, but the inequality of human capital will have a negative impact on future economic growth. On the other hand, inequality does not necessarily directly affect economic growth itself, but it will have an impact on the sustainability of economic growth; For example, income inequality will lead to the widening gap of human capital stock, which is not conducive to sustained economic growth. In this case, it is very important to promote educational equity.
(3) The pressure of the total population and the change of population structure and quality. The fact that China has a large population base will exist for a long time and reach its peak in 2030; The proportion of working-age population in the total population in China will tend to decline from 20 10, and will drop sharply after 2022, and there are few days left to enjoy the demographic dividend; However, the decline of child-rearing rate will bring opportunities to the accumulation of human capital. If the huge labor force can not significantly improve the accumulation of human capital, it will be difficult for China to give full play to its potential comparative advantages in human resources.
(4) Sustainable utilization of resources.
To sum up, there are three basic conclusions or suggestions:
(1) Education, as the main channel to accumulate human capital, is a lasting factor to promote economic growth, so it is also the key to promote sustained economic growth in China;
(2) At present, the significance of education to China's economic growth lies not only in promoting economic growth itself, but also in promoting coordinated development among regions;
(3) Inequality in education will damage the speed and equality of economic growth and the lasting source of economic growth. Therefore, promoting education equity will be an important task for China in the future.