abstract

The main contents of this lecture are:

Section 1 Overview of Feasibility Study of Construction Project

Section 2 Forecasting and Decision-making Methods

Important and difficult

1, the purpose and task of the feasibility study of the construction project

2, the stage and content of the feasibility study of the construction project.

3. Prediction method

4, decision-making methods

Outline requirements

(A) Overview of the feasibility study of construction projects

1, understand the purpose and task of the feasibility study;

2, master the four stages of feasibility study and the basic requirements of each stage;

3. Understand the content, steps and basis of the feasibility study;

4, familiar with the characteristics of economic evaluation methods of construction projects, the difference between financial evaluation of construction projects and national economic evaluation;

5. Understand the concepts of shadow price, shadow wage, social discount rate and shadow exchange rate in national economic evaluation;

6, familiar with the characteristics of the feasibility study of civil construction projects and several problems that should be paid attention to in the economic evaluation of construction projects.

(b) Forecasting and decision-making methods

1, familiar with the two classification methods of prediction;

2. Understand the basic methods of qualitative prediction;

3. Familiar with the basic operations of simple average method, moving average method and weighted moving average method;

4. Understand the definition and steps of decision-making;

5. According to the nature of decision-making, grasp the difference between certainty, uncertainty and risk;

6. Master the calculation method of expected value;

7. Be familiar with the decision-making ideas and processes of minimum income value method, income value method and minimum regret value method for uncertain decision-making.

Purpose and Task of Feasibility Study of Construction Project

Section 1 Overview of Feasibility Study of Construction Project

First, the purpose and task of the feasibility study of the construction project

(A) the purpose of the feasibility study

Specifically, it is to conduct in-depth and detailed investigation and research on social, economic and technical aspects related to the project before the project investment decision; Carry out serious technical and economic analysis, comparison and demonstration of various possible construction schemes and technical schemes; Scientific prediction and evaluation of the economic benefits after the completion of the project; On this basis, the advancement and applicability of technology, economic rationality and the possibility and feasibility of construction projects are comprehensively studied. From this, we can determine whether the project should be invested and how to invest, provide scientific and reliable basis for the final decision of the decision-making department, and serve as the basis for the next work.

Example 1. Feasibility study is a comprehensive subject that uses various scientific achievements to demonstrate () before the decision of engineering construction project.

A. Technical economy

B. Technical appraisal

C. Social evaluation

D. Financial evaluation

A: A.

(B) the task of feasibility study

Feasibility study is the first link of engineering construction and the key to determine the fate of investment projects. The feasibility study should generally answer the following seven questions:

(1) Is this project technically feasible?

(2) Is the project economically feasible?

(3) Is the project financially profitable? What's the profit?

(4) How much investment is needed to build this project?

(5) Through what channels are these investments raised?

(6) How long is the construction period?

(7) How much manpower and material resources are needed to build and maintain the survival and development of the project (including the needs during the construction period and after production)?

The above seven problems can be summarized into three categories: technology; Market demand; Financial and economic situation. Among them, market demand is the premise, technology is the means and financial and economic conditions are the core.

Two, the stage and content of the feasibility study of the construction project.

(1) Feasibility study stage

The development process of productive engineering construction projects can be roughly divided into three periods, namely, construction preparation period (planning period, also known as pre-investment period), construction period (also known as investment period or implementation period) and production period. The feasibility study of construction projects can be divided into four stages: opportunity study, preliminary feasibility study, final feasibility study and project evaluation and decision-making. Now described as follows:

1, opportunity research

The main task of this stage is to make suggestions on the investment direction of engineering construction projects, that is, to find the most favorable investment opportunities on the basis of investigating and forecasting the natural resources and markets in some regions and departments.

Opportunity research is divided into general opportunity research and specific project opportunity research. The former is divided into three types: regional research; Sectoral research; Research based on resources. The latter is to select and determine the investment opportunities of the project and turn the project intention into a rough investment proposal.

Chance research is relatively rough, mainly relying on rough estimation, rather than detailed analysis. The accuracy of investment estimation at this stage is 30%, and the required cost accounts for about 0.2% ~ 1.0% of the total investment.

If the opportunity study proves that the investment project is feasible, the next stage of research can be carried out.

2. Preliminary feasibility study

Also called "pre-feasibility study" or "pre-feasibility study" is to further demonstrate and analyze the possibility and potential benefits of project construction on the basis of opportunity study. It mainly solves the following problems:

(1) Analyze the conclusion of the opportunity study and make a decision on whether to invest or not on the basis of detailed information;

(2) Whether a final feasibility study should be conducted;

(3) What are the key issues to be studied?

The so-called auxiliary research is an independent study of one or several important aspects of investment projects, which is the premise of preliminary feasibility study and feasibility study, or used to support these two studies.

The auxiliary research carried out at the same time as the preliminary feasibility study or the feasibility study can ensure that the results of the feasibility study are more reliable.

In the preliminary feasibility study stage, the investment estimation accuracy can reach 20%, and the required cost accounts for about 0.25% ~ 1.5% of the total investment.

3. Final feasibility study

That is the so-called feasibility study, also called detailed feasibility study. It is the basis of investment decision-making of construction projects and the key step of investment after technical, financial and economic feasibility analysis of the projects.

At this stage, the estimation accuracy of construction investment is 10%, and the cost for small-scale projects is about 1.0% ~ 3.0%, and that for large-scale complex projects is about 0.2% ~ 1.0%.

The final feasibility study shall meet the following requirements:

(1) as the basis for investment decision-making and preparation of design task book;

(2) As the basis for applying for loans from banks and other financial institutions:

(3) as the basis for the construction department to apply for a construction permit and sign a contract with relevant departments;

(4) As the basis of the next stage design of the project;

(5) as the basis for adopting new technologies and new equipment plans;

(6) As supplementary information and audit basis of relevant government departments.

The feasibility study shall be completed by the construction unit or the entrusted consulting institution, and the national financial department or bank shall put forward the review opinions.

4. Project evaluation and decision-making.

According to state regulations, large and medium-sized projects above designated size and important small-scale projects must be evaluated and demonstrated by qualified engineering consulting units entrusted by units with the right of examination and approval. Without evaluation, no unit may approve construction projects, let alone organize construction.

The project evaluation is organized or authorized by the investment decision-making department by the Construction Bank, investment bank, engineering consulting company or relevant experts. On behalf of the country, he conducted a comprehensive review and re-evaluation stage of the feasibility study report of the construction project. Its main task is to put forward evaluation opinions on the feasibility study report of the proposed project.

Example 2. The main task of construction project evaluation is (). (Examination questions in 2004)

A. financial evaluation of the proposed project

B. evaluate the national economy of the proposed project

C. make comments on the feasibility study report of the proposed project.

D. put forward evaluation opinions on the project initiation report of the proposed project.

Answer: c

Example 3. The feasibility study of construction projects can be divided into (). (Examination questions in 2005)

A. Opportunity research

B. Preliminary feasibility study

C. Financial analysis and economic analysis

D. Final feasibility study

E. Project evaluation and decision-making

Answer: A B D E

(2) the content of the feasibility study

There are many kinds of construction projects, with different requirements and conditions, and each has its own emphasis. But usually should include the following contents:

(1) universal;

(2) Market demand and planned scale;

(3) Resources, raw materials, fuels and public facilities;

(4) General plan and plant conditions:

(5) Technology, process and design scheme;

(6) Measures such as environmental protection, earthquake prevention and flood control;

(7) enterprise organization, labor ability and personnel training;

(8) Construction progress plan;

(9) Investment estimation and fund raising;

(10) financial and economic benefit evaluation;

(1 1) comprehensive evaluation.

In the feasibility study report, relevant investigation data and documents, agreements, contracts, schedules and drawings shall be used as annexes for future reference.

(3) Steps of feasibility study

The feasibility study is divided into the following five steps:

L, planning and preparation

After the approval of the project proposal, the construction unit (competent department or enterprise) may entrust an engineering consulting company to conduct a feasibility study on the proposed project, and both parties shall sign a contract agreement, clearly stipulating the work scope, target intention, progress, payment method and cooperation mode of the feasibility study. When accepting the entrustment, the undertaking unit shall obtain the project proposal and relevant project background and documents, find out the purpose and requirements of the entrusting party, clarify the research content, formulate the work plan, and collect relevant basic data, basic parameters, indicators, norms and standards.

2. Investigation and study

Mainly from market research and resource survey. Market research should identify and predict the demand, price and competitiveness of products to determine the product scheme and economic scale; The resource survey includes socio-economic surveys on raw materials, energy, building materials, labor, transportation conditions, peripheral infrastructure, environmental protection, organization and management, and personnel training. To provide accurate technical and economic analysis data for selecting construction site, production technology, technical scheme, equipment selection, organization and staffing.

3. Scheme selection and optimization

According to the requirements of the project proposal, combined with market and resource investigation, on the basis of collected information and data, several alternative technical schemes and construction schemes are established, and repeated schemes are demonstrated and compared. Clarify the major principles and optimization criteria of scheme selection with the entrusting department, select a reasonable scheme from multiple schemes, and study and demonstrate the technical feasibility of the project; Further determine the product plan, economic production scale, technological process, equipment selection, workshop composition, organization, staffing and other plans.

4. Financial analysis and economic evaluation

Carry out detailed financial forecast, financial analysis, economic benefit and national economic evaluation on the scheme determined after the above analysis. Analyze the profitability, cost-benefit and uncertainty from the investment, cost and sales income of the project, study and demonstrate the economic rationality and profitability of the project, and put forward further financing suggestions and the overall implementation plan of the project.

5. Prepare the feasibility study report

After the above analysis and evaluation, a detailed feasibility study report can be prepared, and 1 multiple feasible schemes and implementation schemes can be recommended, and conclusive opinions and measures and suggestions can be put forward for the decision-making departments as the basis.

(four) the basis of the feasibility study

In China, the foundation of feasibility study of construction projects mainly includes:

(1) Guidelines, policies and long-term plans for national and regional economic construction;

(2) approved project proposal or documents with the same effect;

(3) Resource report approved by the state, industrial base planning, land development and renovation planning, traffic network planning, river basin planning, etc. ;

(4) Basic information such as nature, geography, meteorology, geology, hydrology, economy and society;

(5) relevant engineering standards, specifications, indicators, requirements and other information;

(six) the economic parameters and indicators stipulated by the state.

(5) Characteristics and economic evaluation methods of construction projects

The feasibility study of construction projects has a wide range of contents, the most important of which is economic evaluation. Economic evaluation is divided into financial evaluation of construction projects and national economic evaluation, and its evaluation methods are characterized by:

1, dynamic analysis is combined with static analysis, and dynamic analysis is the main one.

In the listed evaluation indicators, the time factor is emphasized, and the inflow and outflow of income and expenses in different time periods are converted into the value at the same time point (equivalent value) by using the calculation method of compound interest, which provides the same basis for the economic comparison of different schemes and projects and can reflect the development and changes in the future.

It is emphasized that the calculation of dynamic indicators does not exclude the calculation of static indicators. The static indicators specified in the indicators are generally simple, intuitive and easy to use. In the evaluation process, static indicators can be calculated according to the requirements of working stage and depth, and auxiliary analysis can be carried out.

2. The combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, mainly quantitative analysis.

The essential requirement of economic evaluation is to give a clear and comprehensive quantitative concept of many economic factors in the process of project construction and production through the calculation of benefits and expenses, so as to make economic analysis and comparison. The evaluation indicators used in the evaluation attempt to correctly reflect two aspects of the production process; That is, the relationship between the income (income) and the cost (expense) of the project. However, there are many economic factors involved in a complex construction project, and there are always some factors that cannot be quantified, so it is difficult to directly carry out quantitative analysis. At this time, it is necessary to make a realistic and accurate qualitative description and evaluate it with quantitative analysis, so as to accurately reflect the real situation of the project.

3. The whole process economic benefit analysis is combined with the stage economic benefit analysis, with the whole process analysis as the main one.

The ultimate requirement of economic evaluation is to examine the economic benefits of the project calculation period, that is, the construction period and the whole process of production and operation. The evaluation method emphasizes that the starting point and destination of project evaluation lies in the whole process of economic analysis, and adopts indicators that can reflect the economic benefits of the project during the whole calculation period, such as internal rate of return and net present value. , and use these indicators as the basis for judging project selection.

4. Combining macro-benefit analysis with micro-benefit analysis, paying attention to macro-benefit.

The economic evaluation of the project depends not only on how much benefit the project itself can bring to the enterprise; Whether it has financial viability; It is also necessary to examine how much the construction and operation of projects and projects have contributed to the national economy and how much the national economy needs to pay for it. The economic evaluation of the project is divided into two levels-financial evaluation and national economic evaluation. When the conclusions of financial evaluation and national economic evaluation are feasible projects, they should be adopted; Otherwise, it should be denied. The conclusion of national economic evaluation is infeasible project; Generally, it should be negative; For some projects that are not feasible in financial evaluation and feasible in national economic evaluation, "redesign" can be carried out, and suggestions for taking preferential measures are put forward when necessary to make the projects feasible in financial evaluation.

5. The combination of value analysis and physical analysis, mainly value analysis,

When evaluating a project, it is necessary to set a number of value indicators and physical indicators. The evaluation method emphasizes quantifying material factors, labor factors and time factors into capital value factors. In the evaluation, different projects or schemes are analyzed through comparable value quantities, and whether the projects or schemes are feasible is judged accordingly.