Reading and thinking, today is fast and slow.

Daniel Camanni.

? Where is Hu? Li Aimin? Translate to Meng Ying.

Part two: Heuristic method and prejudice.

Chapter 16: Causality is more convincing than statistical information.

First, the causal relationship between basic ratio and mentality.

1. mindset.

Thinking mode means that people will (at least temporarily) extend their views on a group to every member of the group. For example, people in China know Kung Fu, while foreigners think that people in China know Kung Fu. This is a state of mind.

Thinking mode is our view of different kinds of things. We will store one or more "normative" typical images related to all these categories of things or people in our memory. When these categories are social, these typical images will be called thinking patterns.

The mindset holds that every individual in a group has a certain tendency, which is in line with causality.

2. Statistical radix ratio and causal radix ratio.

How do we judge the probability of taxi accidents under the following circumstances? Some witnesses recognized that the taxi was blue, and the police confirmed that the probability that the witnesses could correctly recognize these two colors at that time was 80%, and the probability of making a mistake was 20%. Another important data is described in two ways:

Description: Taxis in this city are 85% green and 15% blue.

In this expression, it is difficult to have a causal relationship between the number of two types of taxis in this city and the taxi escape after the accident. Most people will ignore this data when making judgments.

Another description is: among the accidents caused by taxis in this city, green taxis account for 85%.

In this description, we can easily form a mindset. Drivers who drive green taxis are reckless. It is easy for us to associate recklessness with the fact of hit-and-run

1 Description is statistical base ratio, which refers to the total amount of facts of the category to which the event belongs, and has nothing to do with individual events. When people have specific information about an event, it is easy to ignore it.

The second description is the basic ratio of causality, which is regarded as the information of individual events and will change your view of individual events. It is easy for people to combine this ratio with information of other specific events to consider the problem.

In a sensitive social situation, we don't want to draw wrong conclusions about individuals based on the relevant statistical data of a certain group. In other words, we are opposed to using the base ratio of causality.

I want to:

1. We often judge individuals by thinking patterns.

For example, we think that men in Shandong are all burly, so it is hard to believe that a slightly thinner man is from Shandong.

2. It will be biased to judge with a fixed mind.

We should avoid judging individuals by thinking patterns, which often leads to prejudice.

There is a price to pay for breaking the mindset. But it was worth it.