Iraq-
The withdrawal of American troops is not equal to peace.
On August 3, 2065438, KLOC-0, American combat troops withdrew from Iraq. Although the existence of the pro-American regime in Iraq ensured the strategic interests of the United States in the Middle East, the war left Iraq with division and terror, violence and bloodshed. According to statistics, 2828 Iraqis died in various violent incidents last year. With the withdrawal of American combat troops, various political forces in Iraq are fighting for power and profit. In this case, al-Qaeda and various armed forces took the opportunity to constantly create terrorist violence. In addition, after the withdrawal of US combat troops, Iraqi security forces and police will undertake front-line combat and patrol tasks, and their quality and ability are widely questioned. In fact, since September last year, the security situation in Iraq has not improved substantially, and 6 1 person has died in various violent conflicts, accounting for nearly 23.4% of the deaths last year. With the domestic political struggle in Iraq difficult to settle and the ability of Iraqi security forces difficult to improve rapidly, the Iraqi people will still face and endure continuous violence and death.
Afghanistan-
The surge of American troops does not mean that the Taliban failed.
The withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq is to concentrate anti-terrorism energy and resources on the war in Afghanistan. At the end of 2009, the Obama administration approved a new strategic plan to combat the Taliban, and sent 30,000 more soldiers to this end. The feature of the plan is that it does not emphasize counter-terrorism, but emphasizes counter-insurgency, that is, reducing the actions of tracking Taliban fighters and making greater efforts to provide security for local residents, so as to weaken the Taliban's survival foundation. Over the past year, the Coalition forces stationed in Afghanistan have launched several rounds of encirclement and suppression operations, which have achieved certain results, but their own casualties have also risen sharply. Last year, the death toll of allied forces in Afghanistan was 7 1 1 person, the highest since the outbreak of the 5438+0 Afghanistan war in 2006. In June 65438+February 65438+June last year, the progress report of the United States on the war in Afghanistan held that the Coalition forces had made great progress, but the war was still "very difficult". The Obama administration continues to insist on partially withdrawing troops from July this year, gradually handing over security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces, and finally realizing "Afghans ruling Afghanistan". Although western countries hope to throw away the "hot potato" of Afghanistan as soon as possible, there is still great uncertainty about whether the Afghan government can shoulder the heavy burden alone. Once the Coalition forces begin to withdraw in the middle of this year, the Taliban forces are likely to make a comeback.
Pakistan-
The task of counter-terrorism remains arduous.
Last year, the security situation in Pakistan improved. Government forces killed 5 170 terrorists in the whole year, of which 469 were killed, and the number of civilian deaths was 1796, both of which were significantly lower than in 2009. The Pakistani Taliban is now the number one anti-terrorism target of the Pakistani government. Its strength has risen rapidly in recent years, which has a growing impact on Pakistan's domestic security situation, and even important places such as Baru, naval headquarters and high courts have become its targets. In July last year, the United States announced an aid plan worth 500 million dollars to Pakistan, aiming at helping Pakistan develop its economy and alleviating the anti-American sentiment of the Pakistani people. This puts the Pakistani government in a dilemma: if it severely cracks down on the Taliban, it will arouse opposition at home. Beating the Taliban lightly will be accused by the United States of "taking money but not doing things". This year, terrorist organizations in Pakistan will continue to create many terrorist violence activities, and the Pakistani government's anti-terrorism task is still arduous.
Middle East-
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks are hard to get out of the strange circle
Under the pressure and mediation of the United States, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which were interrupted for 20 months, resumed again in September last year. Although the United States said that the talks would solve the problem within one year, in fact, Palestine and Israel did not have much confidence in the peace talks, but instead blamed each other before the talks. Historical experience shows that the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is very fragile and the whole process is full of too many uncertainties. Any negative factors may bring the peace process back to its original point. The two sides have deep grievances and strong domestic constraints, so it is difficult for both sides to get out of the strange circle of "peace talks-breakdown-conflict-resumption of talks". There is a great possibility of a certain degree of conflict between the two sides this year.
Sudan-
Enter a critical historical moment.
The peace process in Darfur, Sudan has made remarkable progress. On February 23 last year, a special meeting of Darfur peace talks was held in Doha, and the Sudanese government signed a ceasefire agreement with the opposition Justice and Equality Movement. On July 10, leaders of major political parties in northern and southern Sudan officially launched the referendum negotiations in southern Sudan. 14 In July, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, a former anti-government organization in Sudan and the main political party in the southern region, said that it would fully participate in the mediation between the Sudanese government and Darfur rebels.
However, there are still many armed groups fighting each other in Darfur, and there are still variables to achieve lasting peace. On June 9, 65438, Sudan held a referendum on whether the south was independent, and Sudan entered a critical historical moment. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, new armed conflicts may still break out. Referendum will not quickly and completely reverse the security situation in Sudan.
Somalia-
Al-Shabaab is more dangerous than pirates
Somalia is one of the most turbulent countries in Africa today, and the future is likely to be the source of terror in Africa.
In fact, the danger in Somalia comes not from Somali pirates, but from anti-government forces closely linked to Al Qaeda in Somalia. The organization swore allegiance to al-Qaeda and bin Laden. Bin Laden, and advocated the rule of Somalia in strict accordance with Islamic law. The international community is paying more and more attention to the movement of Somali Youth Party.
In recent years, the Somali Youth Party has rapidly expanded its power by taking advantage of civil strife. In 2009, it almost captured the capital Mogadishu, and still controlled most parts of the country after being repelled. Since 20 10, the organization has not only continued to fight against Somali government forces, but also extended its terrorist tentacles to neighboring Uganda, and on June 1 1, it made two explosions in the suburb of Kampala, Uganda. In order to cope with the growing threat of terrorism in Somalia, African countries have established some anti-terrorism mechanisms at different levels, and the United States has also implemented some anti-terrorism regional security plans in Africa, including the trans-Saharan anti-terrorism plan and the East African national plan, but these mechanisms are still unable to effectively deal with the Somali crisis. The Somali Youth Party may grow further this year and compete more fiercely with the government forces.
Korean peninsula-
The security pressure is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is small.
The Korean Peninsula is one of the regions with the highest degree of armed confrontation in the world today, but since the end of the Cold War, there has been no armed conflict between North and South Korea.
On 20 10, the Cheonan incident and the shelling incident on Yeonpyeong Island occurred in succession on the Korean peninsula, which greatly increased the risk of conflict and even war on the peninsula. However, due to the lack of willingness of the opposing sides to restart the war and the strong mediation of the international community, including China, the situation gradually subsided.
Since the United States, South Korea and Japan put forward the preconditions for resuming the direct talks between the DPRK and the ROK and the six-party talks, and the United States is unwilling to make substantive efforts to normalize the relations between the DPRK and the DPRK, it is still possible for the DPRK to make some moves in the future. The security pressure on the peninsula is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is small.
The author of this article comes from
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Institute of World Economics and Politics
Major global armed conflicts are unlikely to occur this year, and the overall situation will not change greatly. The number of armed conflicts may be basically the same as last year, and there is a greater possibility of transnational armed conflicts and domestic armed conflicts involving many countries. The former includes the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the war in Afghanistan, while the latter is mainly concentrated in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. The reasons for the occurrence and persistence of conflicts include separatism, ideology, religious and ethnic contradictions. These are very complicated. Most conflicts have lasted for many years, and it is difficult to change the situation in the short term.
Iraq-
The withdrawal of American troops is not equal to peace.
On August 3, 2065438, KLOC-0, American combat troops withdrew from Iraq. Although the existence of the pro-American regime in Iraq ensured the strategic interests of the United States in the Middle East, the war left Iraq with division and terror, violence and bloodshed. According to statistics, 2828 Iraqis died in various violent incidents last year. With the withdrawal of American combat troops, various political forces in Iraq are fighting for power and profit. In this case, al-Qaeda and various armed forces took the opportunity to constantly create terrorist violence. In addition, after the withdrawal of US combat troops, Iraqi security forces and police will undertake front-line combat and patrol tasks, and their quality and ability are widely questioned. In fact, since September last year, the security situation in Iraq has not improved substantially, and 6 1 person has died in various violent conflicts, accounting for nearly 23.4% of the deaths last year. With the domestic political struggle in Iraq difficult to settle and the ability of Iraqi security forces difficult to improve rapidly, the Iraqi people will still face and endure continuous violence and death.
Afghanistan-
The surge of American troops does not mean that the Taliban failed.
The withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq is to concentrate anti-terrorism energy and resources on the war in Afghanistan. At the end of 2009, the Obama administration approved a new strategic plan to combat the Taliban, and sent 30,000 more soldiers to this end. The feature of the plan is that it does not emphasize counter-terrorism, but emphasizes counter-insurgency, that is, reducing the actions of tracking Taliban fighters and making greater efforts to provide security for local residents, so as to weaken the Taliban's survival foundation. Over the past year, the Coalition forces stationed in Afghanistan have launched several rounds of encirclement and suppression operations, which have achieved certain results, but their own casualties have also risen sharply. Last year, the death toll of allied forces in Afghanistan was 7 1 1 person, the highest since the outbreak of the 5438+0 Afghanistan war in 2006. In June 65438+February 65438+June last year, the progress report of the United States on the war in Afghanistan held that the Coalition forces had made great progress, but the war was still "very difficult". The Obama administration continues to insist on partially withdrawing troops from July this year, gradually handing over security responsibilities to the Afghan security forces, and finally realizing "Afghans ruling Afghanistan". Although western countries hope to throw away the "hot potato" of Afghanistan as soon as possible, there is still great uncertainty about whether the Afghan government can shoulder the heavy burden alone. Once the Coalition forces begin to withdraw in the middle of this year, the Taliban forces are likely to make a comeback.
Pakistan-
The task of counter-terrorism remains arduous.
Last year, the security situation in Pakistan improved. Government forces killed 5 170 terrorists in the whole year, of which 469 were killed, and the number of civilian deaths was 1796, both of which were significantly lower than in 2009. The Pakistani Taliban is now the number one anti-terrorism target of the Pakistani government. Its strength has risen rapidly in recent years, which has a growing impact on Pakistan's domestic security situation, and even important places such as Baru, naval headquarters and high courts have become its targets. In July last year, the United States announced an aid plan worth 500 million dollars to Pakistan, aiming at helping Pakistan develop its economy and alleviating the anti-American sentiment of the Pakistani people. This puts the Pakistani government in a dilemma: if it severely cracks down on the Taliban, it will arouse opposition at home. Beating the Taliban lightly will be accused by the United States of "taking money but not doing things". This year, terrorist organizations in Pakistan will continue to create many terrorist violence activities, and the Pakistani government's anti-terrorism task is still arduous.
Middle East-
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks are hard to get out of the strange circle
Under the pressure and mediation of the United States, the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, which were interrupted for 20 months, resumed again in September last year. Although the United States said that the talks would solve the problem within one year, in fact, Palestine and Israel did not have much confidence in the peace talks, but instead blamed each other before the talks. Historical experience shows that the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is very fragile and the whole process is full of too many uncertainties. Any negative factors may bring the peace process back to its original point. The two sides have deep grievances and strong domestic constraints, so it is difficult for both sides to get out of the strange circle of "peace talks-breakdown-conflict-resumption of talks". There is a great possibility of a certain degree of conflict between the two sides this year.
Sudan-
Enter a critical historical moment.
The peace process in Darfur, Sudan has made remarkable progress. On February 23 last year, a special meeting of Darfur peace talks was held in Doha, and the Sudanese government signed a ceasefire agreement with the opposition Justice and Equality Movement. On July 10, leaders of major political parties in northern and southern Sudan officially launched the referendum negotiations in southern Sudan. 14 In July, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, a former anti-government organization in Sudan and the main political party in the southern region, said that it would fully participate in the mediation between the Sudanese government and Darfur rebels.
However, there are still many armed groups fighting each other in Darfur, and there are still variables to achieve lasting peace. On June 9, 65438, Sudan held a referendum on whether the south was independent, and Sudan entered a critical historical moment. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, new armed conflicts may still break out. Referendum will not quickly and completely reverse the security situation in Sudan.
Somalia-
Al-Shabaab is more dangerous than pirates
Somalia is one of the most turbulent countries in Africa today, and the future is likely to be the source of terror in Africa.
In fact, the danger in Somalia comes not from Somali pirates, but from anti-government forces closely linked to Al Qaeda in Somalia. The organization swore allegiance to al-Qaeda and bin Laden. Bin Laden, and advocated the rule of Somalia in strict accordance with Islamic law. The international community is paying more and more attention to the movement of Somali Youth Party.
In recent years, the Somali Youth Party has rapidly expanded its power by taking advantage of civil strife. In 2009, it almost captured the capital Mogadishu, and still controlled most parts of the country after being repelled. Since 20 10, the organization has not only continued to fight against Somali government forces, but also extended its terrorist tentacles to neighboring Uganda, and on June 1 1, it made two explosions in the suburb of Kampala, Uganda. In order to cope with the growing threat of terrorism in Somalia, African countries have established some anti-terrorism mechanisms at different levels, and the United States has also implemented some anti-terrorism regional security plans in Africa, including the trans-Saharan anti-terrorism plan and the East African national plan, but these mechanisms are still unable to effectively deal with the Somali crisis. The Somali Youth Party may grow further this year and compete more fiercely with the government forces.
Korean peninsula-
The security pressure is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is small.
The Korean Peninsula is one of the regions with the highest degree of armed confrontation in the world today, but since the end of the Cold War, there has been no armed conflict between North and South Korea.
On 20 10, the Cheonan incident and the shelling incident on Yeonpyeong Island occurred in succession on the Korean peninsula, which greatly increased the risk of conflict and even war on the peninsula. However, due to the lack of willingness of the opposing sides to restart the war and the strong mediation of the international community, including China, the situation gradually subsided.
Since the United States, South Korea and Japan put forward the preconditions for resuming the direct talks between the DPRK and the ROK and the six-party talks, and the United States is unwilling to make substantive efforts to normalize the relations between the DPRK and the DPRK, it is still possible for the DPRK to make some moves in the future. The security pressure on the peninsula is high, but the possibility of a large-scale conflict is small.
The author of this article comes from
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences