This paper deeply studies the reasons, methods and results of the World Bank's adjustment of China's GDP data, systematically expounds the great progress made in the reform of China's statistical system and price system since the early 1990s, analyzes the adjustment methods of the World Bank item by item based on facts, reveals its existing problems, and clarifies the basic viewpoint that this adjustment method is no longer in line with China's current actual situation, and the World Bank should not adjust China's GDP data.
This article was published in Economic Research 1999, No.6).
In the early 1990s, after the World Bank sent a delegation to inspect China's statistical system, it published a survey report on China's statistical system in transition. According to the report, despite the in-depth reform of China's statistical system, there are still great defects in its basic concepts, survey scope and survey methods: the basic concepts are still deeply rooted in the traditional material product balance sheet system (MPS), the survey scope is still mainly limited to the field of material production, and the survey methods are still mainly based on the traditional comprehensive administrative statements; Although China's price system has undergone many major reforms, it still retains many essential features of the traditional price system, and the prices of many products are still controlled by the government. These conditions lead to the official gross domestic product (GDP) data of China being underestimated and the speed being overestimated. 1994, the World Bank published a special report: GNP per capita in China. Based on the above survey report, it greatly increased China's official GDP data from 65,438 to 0,992. The world bank's per capita GNP data of China 1993- 1997 is calculated based on its adjusted GDP data of China 1992 and the official economic growth rate data of China. Therefore, China's per capita GNP data 1992- 1997 published by the World Bank is much larger than China's official per capita GNP in US dollars. This paper expounds the adjustment of China's official GDP data 1992 by the World Bank and its existing problems.
First, the World Bank's adjustment of China's official GDP data.
The World Bank's adjustment of China's official GDP data includes consistency adjustment, scope adjustment and valuation adjustment, and the comprehensive adjustment ratio is 34.3%. Among them, consistency adjustment and scope adjustment are about the imperfection of statistical system, and valuation adjustment is about the influence of price system.
The World Bank's adjustment to China's official GDP data is briefly summarized in table 1:
Table 1: adjustment of official GDP data of China by the World Bank.
Impact of adjustment range of adjustment projects on GDP (%)
Self-produced and self-used grain is raised by 20% +0.8.
Inventory increase or decrease 1/3-1.6.
Welfare services 10% of the labor force of enterprises engaged in welfare services+1.6
Loss subsidy is regarded as the final expenditure of the government +0.8.
Total consistency adjustment+1.6
Grain output increased 10% +0.9.
The vegetable yield increased by 30% +2.3.
The output value of rural industries increased by 10- 15% +0.6.
The output value of rural service industry will increase by 50-60% +6.5.
Expenditure on housing services increased by 40%+1.5.
The total range is adjusted to 1 1.7.
Housing services 179.8%
All other industries-12.1%-43.0%16.6
Total evaluation adjustment 18.3%.
Total 34.3
Note: 1. Rural industries include rural coal mining, textile, consumer goods manufacturing and other industries.
2. Rural service industry includes humanities service industry, raw material service industry and other service industries.
3. All other industries include grain crop cultivation, other crop cultivation, coal mining, textiles, consumer goods manufacturing, other industries, humanities services, raw material supply and other services.
Consistency adjustment
As can be seen from the table 1, the World Bank's consistency adjustment to China's official GDP data 1992 includes the following aspects:
1, grain produced and used by farmers
According to the World Bank, China's statistical system evaluates the grain produced and consumed by farmers at below-market prices. It assumes that the consistent valuation of this part of grain will increase its value by 20%, and this adjustment will increase GDP by 0.8%.
2. Inventory increase
The World Bank believes that there is a serious inconsistency in China's calculation of the increase in output inventory that cannot be sold or sold at the price used to calculate output. Generally speaking, if these inventories are carried forward to the next year and eventually abandoned or sold at a greatly discounted price, China has not adjusted the inventory increment in GDP accordingly. Therefore, the increase in inventory is greater than the value that should be used for consistent valuation. Therefore, the World Bank lowered the inventory growth rate in China by 1/3, resulting in a decrease in GDP by 1.6%.
3. Welfare services
The World Bank believes that one of the most important components of enterprise reform in China is the marketization of welfare services such as housing and medical care provided by enterprises to employees. The result of this reform will lead to the growth of GDP. The World Bank assumes that 65,438+00% of the labor force is engaged in corresponding services, and assumes that these services turn to the market. Through input-output calculation, this assumption makes GDP increase 1.6%.
4, enterprise loss subsidies
According to China's statistics, enterprise loss subsidy is a negative item of GDP. The World Bank believes that in many cases, corporate losses are the result of government price policies. From an economic point of view, this subsidy is compensation for providing goods and services at preferential prices. Statistically, it should deal with the government's purchase of goods and services and the government's allocation of corresponding recipients, that is, it should not be regarded as a negative item of GDP, but as a positive item of the government's final expenditure. The World Bank adjusted this approach, resulting in an increase of 7% in government expenditure and 0.8% in GDP.
Based on the above results, the World Bank raised the official GDP data of China from 1.992 to 1.6%.
(2) scope adjustment
As can be seen from the table 1, the World Bank's adjustment to China's official GDP data 1992 includes the following aspects:
1, grain
The World Bank believes that the cultivated land area in China is underestimated by one tenth to one third (compared with the cultivated land area measured by satellites); At the same time, sample output may be overestimated. Considering two factors, China's grain output will increase by 10% and GDP will increase by 0.9%.
Step 2: vegetables
The World Bank believes that the calculation of vegetable output value in China does not reflect the change of vegetable output per unit area with time and harvest cycle, and the fact that market forces are encouraging vegetable production in off-season (when the price is higher). At the same time, the calculation of vegetable planting area is not accurate. Considering the above factors, the World Bank increased the vegetable output value of China by 30%, resulting in a GDP growth of 2.3%.
3. Township industry
The World Bank believes that because the corresponding enterprises usually do not have a complete financial statement and statistical investigation system that is not directly managed by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of villages and industries below villages is underestimated. The rapid development of rural industries and a certain degree of tax evasion have affected the underestimation of output. In some fast-growing rural industries, such as building materials industry, high prices and high profits encourage underestimation of output. Industries with low profits, such as coal mining, also have the motivation to fail to report, because the free market price of coal is higher. In addition, the World Bank also pointed out that in order to exaggerate the achievements of local officials, rural industries also overestimated output. Based on the above factors, the World Bank raised the rural industrial output of China by 10- 15%, resulting in a GDP growth of 0.6%.
4. Rural service industry
According to the World Bank, rural service industries, such as rural truck and tractor transport services, have developed very rapidly, but there is no systematic calculation scheme in China. The statistics of rural service industry basically do not include the service activities of rural population who temporarily live and work in cities, such as a large number of repairmen, vendors, restaurant owners, hairdressers and domestic servants in individual repair shops and so on. Considering the above factors, the World Bank increased the output of rural service industry by 50%-60%, resulting in a GDP growth of 6.5%.
5. Residential housing services
According to the World Bank, China residents' housing services are underestimated in scope and price. From the scope, the statistics of urban and rural housing services are incomplete. The value of housing service in China is calculated by the data of housing area, cost and depreciation rate, but the data of housing area is incomplete, and the survey data of urban housing area does not include the housing area of rural residents living in cities, so the incompleteness of the survey scope of rural housing area is more prominent. The World Bank assumed that the national statistical survey network covered two-thirds to three-quarters of all houses in China, and then increased the value of housing services in China by 40%, resulting in an increase of 1.5% in GDP.
Based on the above results, the World Bank raised the official GDP data of China from 1992 to 1 1.7%.
(III) Valuation adjustment
According to the data of the World Bank, due to the distorted price system and productivity differences, the rate of return on land and capital of China's industries is much higher than that of other industries, among which the rate of return on consumer goods manufacturing is the highest, the rate of return on service industry and coal industry is the lowest, and the rate of return on agriculture is even lower. Further price reform in China will change the profitability of various industries. The World Bank tries to adjust the rate of return on land and capital of various industries to the national average. Because the textile industry is very important in China's foreign trade, the World Bank kept the price of this industry unchanged, raised the prices of housing and other real estate industries, and lowered the prices of consumer manufacturing industries except textiles. The World Bank used the input-output table of 1987 to adjust GDP, and as a result, GDP increased by 18.3%.
Based on the above three adjustment results, the World Bank raised the official GDP data of China from 65,438 to 0,992, with an increase rate of 34.3%.
Second, the adjustment of China's GDP data by the World Bank
The World Bank's adjustment of China's GDP data is based on its understanding and judgment of China's statistical system and price system in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since the early 1990s, great progress has been made in the reform of China's statistical system and price system. As far as the statistical system is concerned, with the reform of the national economic accounting system, the basic concepts and frameworks have been basically transformed into the latest international standard of national economic accounting-UN1993 SNA; The scope of statistical investigation has expanded from the traditional material production field to the intangible production field; The statistical investigation method of comprehensive administrative statements has been replaced by the investigation method system with general survey and sampling survey as the main body; Some surveys were conducted, including agricultural surveys, industrial surveys, tertiary industry surveys, and basic unit surveys. Many professional statistics use sampling survey methods, such as agricultural product output survey, rural and urban household survey, price survey and so on. This series of statistical reforms has continuously improved China's statistical system. As far as the price system is concerned, China has carried out extensive and in-depth reforms. At present, the market price has become the main body of China's price system.
Specifically, the World Bank's adjustment of China's GDP data has at least the following problems:
(A) Consistency adjustment problem
1, identification of grain produced by farmers for their own use
According to China's agricultural statistics, the value of grain produced by farmers for their own use is calculated according to the comprehensive average price of the combination of national purchase price and market price. In recent years, China has had a continuous bumper harvest of grain. In order to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, the national grain purchase price has been higher than, not lower than, the market price. Therefore, the above comprehensive average price will not be lower than the market price. The World Bank's judgment that China's statistical system evaluates farmers' self-produced food at a price lower than the market price is no longer in line with the actual situation in China.
2. Inventory increase
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, influenced by the traditional planned economy system, a considerable number of enterprises only considered production, regardless of market demand and profitability. Some products produced by these enterprises may not be sold and can only be discarded or greatly discounted. Therefore, as far as the situation at that time is concerned, it may not be too much for the World Bank to reduce the inventory increment in China by one third. However, great changes have taken place since the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China set the reform goal of China's economic system as a market economy system, and market demand and profitability have gradually become the main considerations for enterprises' production decisions. Therefore, the situation that the products produced by enterprises are abandoned or discounted is obviously reduced. Therefore, the adjustment ratio of the World Bank is no longer suitable for the actual situation of inventory product sales in China.
3. Welfare services
In recent years, a series of enterprise system reforms in China are promoting the marketization of enterprise welfare services, and the proportion of employees engaged in welfare services in enterprises is gradually decreasing. Therefore, at least for the current situation of enterprises in China, the World Bank assumes that 65,438+00% of the labor force is engaged in welfare services, and the corresponding GDP adjustment ratio is not appropriate.
(b) adjustment of scope.
1, grain
The official statistics of China's cultivated land area is indeed lower than that measured by satellite, but the cultivated land area measured by satellite includes sloping fields, floodplains, leisure areas, ditches and field roads above 25 degrees. These lands cannot be regarded as normal cultivated land. Therefore, the gap between the official data of cultivated land area in China and the actual cultivated land area is not as big as that estimated by the World Bank. In addition, in addition to agricultural statistics including grain output survey, rural household survey also compiled rural household agricultural production table and rural household grain balance table, which respectively reflected rural household grain production and grain balance at the beginning of the year and grain income, grain expenditure and grain balance at the end of the year. These different types of surveys can play a proofreading role in grain yield statistics. According to the above situation, China's grain output data should be more in line with the actual situation, and the World Bank's upward adjustment of 10% will inevitably lead to an overestimation of GDP data.
2. Animal husbandry
The World Bank concluded that China's statistics underestimated agricultural output. In fact, the conventional agricultural statistics in China are still overestimated. The results of the national agricultural census show that the meat production in the annual report of 1996 is overestimated by 22%, and the number of pigs, cattle and sheep is overestimated by 20.7%, 2 1. 1% and 2 1.8% respectively. Therefore, the total agricultural output and agricultural added value are overestimated. In view of this situation, GDP should be adjusted downward accordingly. This was unexpected by the World Bank.
3. Township industry
The results of the third national industrial census show that the total output value of rural industries calculated by the Township Enterprise Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture is overestimated by 654.38+0.8 trillion yuan (654.38+0.995), accounting for 40% of the total output value of rural industries. Obviously, contrary to the judgment of the World Bank, rural industrial output should be adjusted downward, not upward.
4. Rural service industry
The World Bank's judgment and data adjustment on the imperfect statistics of rural service industry in China are not excessive for the statistics of China in the late 1980s and early 1990s. However, China conducted the first general survey of the tertiary industry from 1993 to 1995, and conducted a comprehensive survey of all service industries, including rural service industries. At the same time, according to the census data, the historical data of GDP has been adjusted to a great extent:
Table 2: Adjustment ratio of added value of service industry and GDP data in the tertiary industry census (%)
Annual gross domestic product, tertiary industry, transportation, post and telecommunications, commercial intangible service industry
1978 1.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 9.3
1980 1. 1 5.2 0.0 0.0 9.6
1985 5. 1 20.6 0.0 52.2 1 1.9
1986 5.3 2 1.2 0.0 58. 1 12.4
1987 5.8 23.0 0.0 62.3 13.2
1988 6. 1 23.4 0.0 65. 1 10.7
1989 5.7 20.3 0.0 66.7 8.8
1990 4.8 17.2 2.7 67.6 8.5
199 1 7. 1 24.7 10.4 67.6 13.9
1992 9.3 33. 1 9.5 88.7 2 1.7
1993 10.0 32.0 1 1.7 73.4 24.8
Note: This table is calculated according to China Statistical Yearbook 1994 and China Statistical Yearbook 1995.
In fact, this adjustment has greatly exceeded the adjustment of the rural service industry by the World Bank. For example, the World Bank's adjustment of rural service data led to a 6.5% increase in GDP data of 1992, while China's GDP data of that year increased by 9.3% after the census of the tertiary industry. Therefore, the World Bank's judgment and data adjustment of China's rural service statistics are no longer suitable for the current actual situation in China.
Valuation adjustment problem
Since the early 1990s, China has established the target model of establishing a socialist market price system, made a breakthrough in price reform, and significantly improved the severely distorted price structure. For example, from 1990 to 1997, the World Bank believes that the prices of service industry and coal industry, which have the lowest returns on land and capital, have increased by 222% and 206% respectively, while the prices of food industry and textile industry, which belong to the consumer goods manufacturing industry with the highest returns on land and capital, have only increased by 96.8% and 60.3% respectively. More importantly, at present, the market mechanism has played a leading role in the formation of commodity and service prices in China. The price of commodities is basically determined by the market. Except for some service industries, such as residents' welfare housing service industry, the prices of most service industries are also determined by the market. Even those services that deviate from the market price are rapidly transitioning to the market price. For example, with the reform of the housing system, housing services will face the market, and welfare housing services will soon cease to exist.
In addition, when comparing the prices of 33 representative commodities at home and abroad, the relevant departments found that in 1998 1 1 month, 22 kinds of domestic prices were higher than the international prices, accounting for 69%, including agricultural products such as wheat, corn, soybeans and soybean oil, chemical products such as sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid and urea, and energy sources such as gasoline and diesel.
In short, in the case of great changes in China's price formation mechanism, price scale and price structure, if the World Bank still adjusts the prices of various industries according to the input-output table of 1987, the GDP data will inevitably be overestimated.
Note 1: Because there is little difference between China's official GDP and GNP data, the World Bank calculates China's official GNP per capita based on China's official GDP data, not GNP data. For the same reason, this paper does not distinguish between GDP and GNP.
Note 2: The official per capita GNP of China is calculated in RMB.
References—
1. Document of World Bank 13580-CHA: GNP per capita in China,1February 15, 1994.
2. World Bank document: China's statistical system in transition, translated by the National Bureau of Statistics.
3. The national statistical report system was formulated by the National Bureau of Statistics in 1998.
4. National Bureau of Statistics 1998: Rural household survey plan.
5. National Bureau of Statistics: China Statistical Yearbook (1994, 1995, 1997, 1998), China Statistics Publishing House (1994, 1995,/.
6. Xu Xianchun: Reform and Development of National Economic Accounting System in China, Economic Science Press, 1997.
7. Price Monitoring and Analysis No.22 1998