How much money Russia has left to survive after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is Russia's most important secret. It is difficult for outsiders to get the information of 1 hand. We can only analyze it from several relatively transparent angles, such as Russia's annual GDP and military spending. After the outbreak of the war, judging from the Russian economic situation, it is possible for the Russian economy to decline by 5%. In addition, the inflation rate in Russia has reached 17%. However, according to the analysis of the Russian authorities, the Russian economy will stop declining before 2023.
Judging from this situation, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy is probably not higher than 20%. Judging from the GDP of Russia10.7 trillion US dollars, the maximum loss does not exceed 300 billion US dollars. On the other hand, Biden's aid to Ukraine does not exceed $70 billion. And the first 30 billion has been spent, and the last 40 billion may have spent some of it. It's hard to last more than six months. As for other European countries, assistance to Ukraine is very limited.
If Zelensky wants to maintain the war again, it will be very difficult. It really seems like a year has passed. Moreover, with the passage of time, Russia has gained the upper hand in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, and Ukraine has become weaker and weaker. In addition, Donetsk, Lugansk, Hellson and Zaporoge in eastern Ukraine went to Russia. This is the most important industrial zone in Ukraine with a population of over 8 million. After these resources are enriched in Russia, in fact, Russia not only has not lost much, but also has a high income.
In this case, it should be no problem for Russia to fight a protracted war, and it can last for a long time. The main reason is that this war is a local war. Although Ukraine occasionally strikes back at Russia, it is rare. Most of the fighting is still confined to Ukraine. Therefore, the impact on the normal operation of the Russian economy and Russia's own economy is very limited.
On the other hand, although the United States, NATO, the European Union and other western countries have imposed so-called bottomless sanctions on Russia. Russia's foreign exchange reserves of more than $300 billion, as well as the property of many Russian overseas citizens, have been frozen or confiscated. However, because many Russian overseas citizens can choose to join foreign nationality. You can choose to condemn Russia. In this way, their wealth can be thawed, but they are not closely related to Russia.
If Russia has more than 300 billion foreign exchange reserves, except Americans, other countries dare to spend all their more than 30 billion dollars. European countries generally dare not use other currencies. For example, this includes 75 billion euros held by Germany, just as the new Sunak government in Britain now shows that Russia has gradually begun to thaw. As for France, Italy and other countries, they have already quietly liberalized Russian capital. Switzerland even said no from the beginning, Russians serve, which means that Russian capital can flee Switzerland as soon as possible.
Moreover, if Russia adopts the policy of economic trend, in fact, the lack of some euro foreign exchange reserves has very limited impact on the operation of its entire economy, and with the passage of years, the role of these sanctions is getting smaller and smaller.
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Hemingway, the author of The Old Man and the Sea, only one-eighth of his creative pursuit is expressed in words, and the remaining seven-eighths are hidden in