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Finance and a Better Society
The author of Finance and a Better Society is robert shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 20 13 years. He has written many famous works, such as Irrational Prosperity and Animal Spirit.

There is a role in the financial market called investment manager, also called trader and fund manager. Ordinary people will find these professionals as traders and engage in investment and financial management, and they will draw from them. Occupy Wall Street was a sensation. At that time, some fund companies were entrusted by the government to manage the national social security fund and used the money to invest. As a result, the money created a big bubble in the stock market. In 2008, the bubble burst and many financial institutions went bankrupt. The government used financial money to save these financial institutions. This made people dissatisfied and the Occupy Wall Street movement broke out. If a group's salary is particularly high or it is particularly easy to make money, this matter has no mass base in any society, and most people will come out to oppose it.

Fund companies usually collect money from people by selling their own fund products. If it is a stock fund, it will use the money to invest in various stocks, which provides a lot of space for the fund manager who manages the money. For example, using this huge sum of money to buy a stock will raise the stock price, so the fund manager can use his own money to buy in advance, and then use the fund's money to raise the stock price, buy low and sell high. This is a serious violation of professional ethics. According to the regulations of the CSRC, this is insider trading. Although it seems that fund managers use information symmetry to make profits, it is ordinary investors who operate the pit in this way. Raising the stock price with the fund's money means that everyone's money is on high alert. After the fund manager arbitrage, all the risks are passed on to ordinary investors. I was fooled when I bought the fund, but in most years, I lost money when I bought the fund. But even so, many people still feel that they just haven't met a good fund manager or selected a good product from a good fund company. If you are cautious, you will still make a lot of money by buying more products from star fund companies.

Passive management strategy-put the money raised by the fund into the stock market as widely as possible, and buy a little of all stocks. If it is an index fund, buy some index stocks such as S&P 500 and CSI 300. The advantage of this is that you won't put all your eggs in one basket. After all, betting on a few stocks is risky. Diversified investment, the east does not shine, and other performance is good as a whole. In essence, the bet is the trend of the market. As long as a country's economy develops upward, its stock market will generally develop upward. These two things are positively related, but they avoid the chance of plunging and have no chance of making huge profits.

Active management strategy-This operation method especially trusts the judgment of traders, and specially buys stocks that they are optimistic about, such as blockchain and other concept stocks, because they think that investing in such technology stocks in the hot season will outperform the market and gain excess returns. In recent decades, the research conclusions of experts and professors who study finance are basically the same, and they all think that the annualized rate of return of passive management strategy is much better than that of active management. 20 1 1 Two economic studies in Sweden found that all funds adopting active management strategies in Sweden not only failed to outperform the market, but even ordinary retail investors may not be able to outperform the market. Usually when I analyze the macro economy or comment on a listed company, I will make a clear statement. When it comes to trading, I operate like a tiger and the result is 250. How can I say that I am particularly professional? 20 15, a large number of actively managed funds outperformed the market, and there are indeed many funds that can outperform the market in the super bull market. But this kind of fund is characterized by bull market and bear market. In a long-term comprehensive view, there are very few active management funds that can really outperform the market, whether in China or the United States. So, for example, in recent years, many snow experts have advised retail investors not to buy actively managed funds, but to buy index funds, so that the market will rise a little and the market will fall a little. In the long run, although the income of index funds fluctuates, as long as the economy develops, the overall income is still relatively stable. If the funds are actively managed, they will seize the opportunity wisely.

Is the income ranking of famous fund companies reliable?

We will find it amazing to look at the lists of various statistical fund companies' returns, but there is a problem. It counts the fund companies that are still alive, the poor returns and the half-dead ones are directly excluded from the statistical sample, and the rest are better companies. Of course, the rewards are amazing. China's marketization time is still relatively short, so it is not easy to see that financial freedom is particularly free like that of the United States. In developed countries, the mortality rate of fund companies is extremely high. A financial information agency in the United States conducted a survey of more than 5,000 Public Offering of Fund in the United States, and found that about 46% of the funds were closed or merged during the period from 197 to 20 1 1 year, so the survivor bias is still very serious. Traders have high wages and great moral hazard. From a professional point of view, they can't really help investors get profits outside the market, but intelligence can help investors get a very regular income. So, what is their existence value?

The business world emphasizes that existence is reasonable, and the model that can stand in a market-oriented environment must have vitality. For example, the scalper party is really unreasonable from a moral point of view, but it is only because of the imbalance between supply and demand in the market that it is so vital. They sell scarce tickets to people in need, which is to create value for customers, which is the foundation for them to settle down. Traders in financial institutions play a vital role in stock prices. Stock traders usually rely on a huge institution behind them, part of which is capital, which is the profit-seeking of the stock market, and affects the stock market fluctuation every minute, so their basic judgment on the price of a stock reflects the market price of this stock and has the function of trading discovery. "Market maker" is mainly adopted by European and American financial markets, and China's New Third Board has also adopted the market maker system. In fact, it is a middleman. When buying and selling stocks, it is not necessarily that someone sells them at this moment, we just buy them. Sometimes we buy stocks sold by market makers.

Companies such as market makers don't buy stocks at low prices and then sell them at high prices to earn the difference, but basically sell them at the original price. Because the significance of the existence of market makers is to solve the liquidity problem of the market, if only many individuals and institutions buy and sell stocks in insomnia, then theoretically there is a possibility that when someone wants to buy a stock, no one sells it, and the transaction cannot be reached. China's New Third Board market has been criticized for its poor liquidity. Because the risk is relatively high, the state restricts the entry of retail investors, and the threshold is relatively high. Without many retail investors, the stock liquidity in the New Third Board market will not be too great, and there will not be so many transactions. In this case, market makers will buy and sell themselves, so that everyone will not be trapped. Market maker pricing is very important, and that's what market maker traders do. These people keep buying and selling stocks, and they must have a very accurate judgment on what price to set. If the price is set high, it will cause stock price fluctuations, and it is also possible to trap yourself. If the price is set low, the chips will be sucked away by retail investors and the liquidity will not come up. Traders of market makers will make a lot of reference when pricing, such as company financial reports, related news, macroeconomics, industry development trends and so on. They will judge the value of the stock by summarizing this information. So what these traders do is typical price discovery. Without them, there would be no smooth formation mechanism of stock market prices.

People engaged in finance are closely related to the rich. About14 of the top 400 American rich people in Forbes list come from investment, hedge funds, leveraged buyouts, insurance and so on. No matter which industry these rich people start from, they will eventually have some connection with the financial industry. The financial industry has helped these rich people enlarge the speed of wealth appreciation, and the wages of employees in the financial industry are also particularly high. The compensation industry in the Internet industry can only rank second after the financial industry. Because many times, the financial industry plays the role of a channel, neither producing machinery and equipment nor making software and hardware, but collecting money through various means and then investing it in the right place. The average income level of the financial industry has indeed reached a relatively high level in recent decades, but it has not always been at a high point. Historically, this wage level has been fluctuating, starting from the highest point 1930 during the Great Depression, and has been declining for the next half century. Economists have found that the income level of employees in the financial industry is closely related to the average education level of employees. In the last two or three decades, the income level of the whole financial industry has risen again, mainly because the academic qualifications of financial institutions are getting higher and higher. Now entering this industry, the quality level of talents has reached an unprecedented height, and wages naturally rise.

Robert Schiller, the author of this book, thinks that the most essential attribute of the financial industry is to match market transactions and connect resources in different fields when explaining the value of the financial industry. It promotes the writing of the whole society and the operation efficiency of the whole organization, so it can make a lot of profits.

Chen Zhiwu, a famous economist, said in an interview that he thought the gap between the rich and the poor would widen, not narrow. He quoted a paper published in the journal Nature. Through the study of 63 archaeological sites around the world, scientists found that every scientific and technological innovation has widened the gap of human wealth from more than 10,000 yuan to the late agricultural society and then to the industrial society, which is the general trend of human history. Why does technological innovation widen the gap between the rich and the poor?

First, everyone has different levels of mastery of new technologies, and smarter people will definitely stand out and use technology to widen the wealth gap with others.

Second, technological innovation will increase the income of capital investment. As long as we can outrun the growth rate of labor income, the gap between the rich and the poor will definitely increase.

When these two factors are superimposed, it will be impossible to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and the wealth of the future society will be more and more concentrated in the hands of a few people. "Super Rich" said that the world operates according to power law distribution or Matthew effect, so it is a fundamental law that the richer the rich, the poorer the poor. However, we should try our best to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. On the one hand, human beings have humanistic spirit and natural sympathy for vulnerable groups. On the other hand, if the gap between the rich and the poor is left unchecked, it will easily lead to revolution and war, which will cost a lot and may cause a lot of deaths.