Restricted by the national industrial policy, the total output of liquor industry began to decline after experiencing rapid development in the 1980s. The situation of large-scale and small-scale liquor enterprises still exists, which leads to problems such as insufficient innovation and chaotic marketing. The protection of local enterprises in various places is an important reason for the disorder of liquor industry, market segmentation and failure to truly realize the survival of the fittest. The government, especially the central government, regulates and strengthens law enforcement, which is an important guarantee for purifying the business environment and achieving fair and orderly competition. At present, due to the steady consumer demand, the overall goal of the industry is basically limited in place, so the development of the industry will remain basically stable.
Problem research
There are many reasons why the present situation of liquor industry is not optimistic, mainly production problems, marketing problems and local protection problems.
Production problems. Insufficient product innovation The problems in liquor production are mainly exposed after the adjustment of consumption tax. In this tax adjustment, the state canceled the deduction policy that enterprises that produce wine by blending imported wine can deduct the consumption tax paid by their wine purchases, which made some liquor companies complain bitterly. What is the reason for its blending is understandable as a liquor production process. In fact, it has been recognized by experts that liquid liquor has the advantages of reducing cost and saving grain by blending with liquid fermentation. However, because pure grain brewing wine is still the mainstream of current consumption, many enterprises use blending to produce liquor. It can be said that the essential problem exposed by blending is that China liquor enterprises lack investment in product research and development and product innovation. China liquor has a long history and rich flavor types, including sauce flavor, strong flavor, faint flavor, rice flavor, phoenix flavor, black bean flavor, sesame flavor and mixed flavor. However, due to the pursuit of output, many enterprises blindly adopt industrial means, which makes the production technology of various wines more and more similar. Some enterprises blindly follow suit, imitating rather than strict product development procedures. This problem exists in both small and medium-sized enterprises and large backbone liquor enterprises. As long as a product sells well, it will be copied immediately, no matter the product, packaging or even the name, it is almost identical. Results After more than 20 years, the flavor of liquor became less and less, and now it has almost become Luzhou-flavor liquor. However, market economy, especially modern market economy, needs personalized and diversified products to meet personalized and diversified needs. Enterprises can't just use their brains in marketing. In fact, the building of any product or brand is a systematic project, and it is impossible to create essential product differences just by working hard on marketing.
Marketing confusion. The confusion of liquor industry mainly comes from the marketing confusion of terminal. In order to create differences and realize sales, advertising war, promotion war and price war have become common means for liquor enterprises, which leads to higher and higher threshold for liquor terminal links. At present, unfair competition to seize the market by giving waiters "bottle opening fees" is widespread, which greatly increases the burden on enterprises. In particular, some enterprises once became the target of CCTV in order to occupy the market in a short period of time, or take the practice of constantly giving profits to dealers, or take the advertisement of "indiscriminate bombing". And their influence makes liquor enterprises fall into a new promotion war, just like putting on "red dancing shoes" and constantly spinning. At present, in order to promote sales, many liquor enterprises have adopted the practice of violating integrity. The phenomenon of "making ancestors" is a typical one. A "cellar" today and a "pool" tomorrow make it difficult for people to know the truth. And this kind of old wine blossoming everywhere is actually misleading consumers. Pan, vice president of China Food Industry Association, pointed out that the longer liquor is stored, the better. After five years, the taste of ordinary aromatic liquor will become weaker and weaker, and the aroma will also weaken. Maotai-flavor aged liquor is a good wine, but whether Luzhou-flavor liquor stored for many years is a good wine is still controversial among experts. Professional production enterprises are ignorant in this respect, but in order to make selling points, enterprises use some immature consumer psychology of consumers, which damages the reputation of liquor to some extent and makes the competition between enterprises fall into a strange circle.
Partial overprotection. Local protection is one of the important reasons why the liquor industry is out of order and cannot really realize the survival of the fittest. Since the 1980s, liquor enterprises have been the financial pillar of some places, and in some places there is even a saying that "to be a good county magistrate, start a winery first". Driven by the interests of "small investment, quick results", some places continue to build and expand liquor projects, resulting in a large number of wineries but small scale, and the supply of products exceeds demand. In some places, in order to ensure the sales of local wines, they even restrict the entry of foreign products or charge foreign varieties; In some places, in order to improve the competitiveness of local wines, consumption tax is refunded. All these practices have seriously hindered the formation of the national market and caused serious unfairness in the business environment.
investment strategy
Well-known companies can pay attention. At present, there are 13 liquor listed companies in the two cities, and their performance has been the best over the years. However, in 5438+0 in 2006, the average earnings per share of liquor listed companies was only 0.2847 yuan, down 39.68% year-on-year, and losses occurred for the first time-Changxing Industrial's earnings per share was -0.207 yuan, and Ningcheng Laojiao's earnings per share was -0.
Judging from the operation of liquor listed companies last year, there are the following problems:
First, the main income declined. Due to the disorder of industry order and poor business environment, it is more difficult for enterprises to operate. Seven of the listed companies in 13 saw their main business income decline, among which Huangtai Liquor Industry and Ningcheng Laojiao both fell by more than 20%.
Second, the gross profit margin declined. After the implementation of the new consumption tax in May, 20001year, the gross profit margin of listed companies decreased by 3.02%, while that of Gujinggong, Tuopai Qujiu and Wuliangye all decreased by more than 10%.
Third, the three expenses have increased substantially. The three expenses of liquor listed companies increased by an average of 15.33% year-on-year, among which the three expenses of Huangtai Liquor Industry and Ningcheng Laojiao increased by more than 50%.
Fourth, solvency, especially short-term solvency, has weakened. Among them, the current ratio and quick ratio decreased by 65,438+03.88% and 65,438+03.46% respectively, and the operating cash flow decreased by 65,438+06%, among which the operating cash flow per share of Huangtai Liquor, Ningcheng Laojiao and Changxing Industry was negative.
These problems of liquor listed companies are basically consistent with the current situation of liquor industry, and it is difficult to change in the short term.
Judging from the situation in the first half of this year. Competition in the industry has become more intense, and the benefits of many liquor companies have declined. In the first quarter, except Kweichow Moutai, the net profit of liquor listed companies declined to varying degrees, led by Xiang Jiugui Liquor, Huangtai Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu. Most companies' net profit dropped by more than 10%. Lanling Sean has predicted that the interim report will lose money. According to this trend, it is estimated that the average income of the liquor industry in the interim report will be reduced by more than 35% compared with the same period last year. In this case, listed companies investing in liquor should pay attention to the following points: from the perspective of growth, companies that produce high-grade liquor are better than those that produce low-grade liquor. Because the consumers' brand loyalty of middle and high-grade liquor is relatively high, its market competition is relatively standardized. At the same time, due to the relatively high price, the proportion of specific tax borne by middle and high-grade wines in their main income will be smaller, and the reduced profits will be smaller. In particular, middle and high-grade liquor companies with excellent main business will maintain a certain growth, and well-known liquor production enterprises based on brand reputation and customer loyalty such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai are still expected to maintain excellent performance. From the perspective of policy impact, the impact of consumption tax this year is relatively more obvious. The adjustment of liquor consumption tax of 200 1 began in May, which mainly affected the performance in the second half of the year, so this year's consumption tax will reduce the profits of liquor listed companies more obviously. In particular, the cancellation of income tax concessions for listed companies will directly reduce the net profit of most liquor listed companies, but it will certainly not affect companies such as Kweichow Moutai that have not enjoyed income tax concessions.
Judging from the development trend. Beware of diversity trap. Although almost every liquor listed company has cross-industry projects, the investment industries are different. For example, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. not only invests in tonics and biological products, but also invests in expressways. However, from the 200 1 annual report, few companies have made significant gains. Even Quanxing shares with relatively successful pharmaceutical business only account for about 16% of the operating profit of the whole company. Therefore, the diversification of liquor listed companies is more of a conceptual effect, and there is still a long way to go to achieve practical results.
From the perspective of restructuring opportunities. Listed companies that may lose money may take the lead in restructuring. Its restructuring may basically be carried out across industries. Of course, restructuring may not necessarily help enterprises get out of the quagmire of losses. Take "Dalongquan" as an example. Although the main business was changed and renamed as "Changxing Industry", 200 1 still suffered a loss of 0.207 yuan per share and continued to suffer losses in the first quarter of 2002. Lanling Sean, which reported a loss this year, also plans to reorganize with Zhongke Software Group, and signed a letter of intent for equity transfer on June 29th last year, but no substantial progress has been made so far. Policy background
The development of the industry is limited. Brewing industry is an industry that consumes a lot of food. From 1950s to 1970s, the state strictly restricted the production and sale of liquor. In 1980s, with the increase of grain supply, liquor production was gradually liberalized, and liquor production increased rapidly from 2 1.5 million tons in 1.980 to 801.00 million tons in 1.996. According to the grain consumption of 3 Jin per Jin of liquor, the grain consumption of liquor industry in 1996 was 24 million tons, equivalent to the grain consumption of China people for nearly three months. For this reason, coupled with the pollution problem of liquor enterprises and the harm of high alcohol to health, the state has listed liquor as an industry that restricts its development.
Since 1990s, the overall planning of China liquor industry has been "restricting the development of high-alcohol liquor, encouraging the development of fermented liquor and low-alcohol liquor, and supporting the development of fruit liquor and non-food raw liquor", with the guiding ideology of "controlling the total amount, adjusting the structure, making technological progress, improving the quality, controlling pollution and increasing the benefits". Under the guidance of this policy, since 1996, the State Council has stipulated that ministries and commissions are strictly forbidden to use liquor for banquets in official activities; 1February, 1998, the relevant state departments jointly issued a document, demanding that liquor enterprises be cleaned up and rectified, and decided to implement the production license system for liquor enterprises; Strictly control the import of liquor, and no longer arrange any liquor enterprises to expand production scale.
The Tenth Five-Year Plan of China Liquor Industry clearly states that during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the liquor industry will take the adjustment of liquor product structure as the main line, the reform and opening-up and scientific and technological progress as the driving force, and the basic starting point is to meet people's needs for liquor products, and develop in the direction of high quality, low degree, multiple varieties, low consumption, high efficiency and no pollution. According to the industrial policy, the Brewing Association has formulated the industry development goals of the main liquor varieties, and liquor has become the only liquor with the goal of reducing production.
The above-mentioned policies of the state can be implemented through taxation. State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China/KLOC-0 issued a document at the end of 1993, stipulating that consumption tax will be levied on liquor from New Year's Day of 1994. Regarding the purpose of levying consumption tax on liquor, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China explained: "Levying consumption tax on liquor is an international common practice. Drinking more liquor is bad for people's health and consumes a lot of food. The consumption tax on liquor embodies the regulatory functions of guiding consumer demand, macro-controlling the industrial structure of liquor industry and protecting resources. " On this basis, starting from 1994, the consumption tax on liquor is different, which is 25% for grain liquor and 15% for potato liquor. And wine is 10%, and yellow wine and beer are even lower.
In addition, in March of 1998, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Notice on Pre-tax Deduction of Grain Liquor Advertisements, stipulating that from 1999 onwards, there should be no more than four liquor advertisements in prime time of TV stations. At the beginning of 200 1, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the document "Implementation Measures for Pre-tax Deduction of Enterprise Income Tax", which stipulated that the advertising of liquor enterprises should not exceed 2% of sales, and the excess should not be deducted before income tax.
In 200 1 year, the state further stipulated that 0.5 yuan specific tax should be levied on every catty of liquor, and the current deduction policy that enterprises can deduct the consumption tax paid by purchasing liquor by blending imported liquor was cancelled, which had a great impact on the liquor industry and led to a decrease in profits of the whole industry. For example, 200 1, the total profit of liquor in China was 4.039 billion yuan, down 6.6% from the previous year.
While increasing the tax burden of liquor, the tax collection and management work is increasingly strict. State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China decided to conduct special tax inspection on liquor industry from June 17 to July 19, 2002. The focus of the inspection is to crack down on tax-related violations in the liquor industry, rectify and standardize the tax order, strengthen tax collection management, plug loopholes, ensure the implementation of various tax policies in the liquor industry, and ensure the collection of various taxes according to law.
Industry status
Production shrinks and profits decrease. With the enhancement of people's health awareness, people's consumption concept has changed greatly, and high-alcohol is no longer as popular as it used to be. This is reflected in the consumption structure that the proportion of beer and wine is increasing, while the proportion of liquor is decreasing. In terms of output, the output of liquor dropped from the peak of180 10000 tons in 1996 to 4.2 million tons in 200 1 year. This year, the output of liquor dropped by 8.52% year-on-year, hitting a new low. In terms of output structure, 1995 accounted for 30.5% of the total output of liquor industry, while 200 1 year was only about 15%. However, at 200 1, the sales revenue of the whole liquor industry did not decrease because of the decrease in output, but increased by 0.4% year-on-year to 49.9 billion yuan. Due to the increase of tax burden, the total profit and tax of the industry was 654.38+0.29 billion yuan, an increase of 2.654.38+0% over 2000. However, the total annual profit of the industry is only more than 4 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and the loss of the whole industry is over 40%, and it has a growing trend. Of course, overall, 62.5% of the total profit of the liquor industry still comes from liquor.
Industry concentration is low. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 37,000 liquor enterprises in China, among which 33 enterprises have an output of more than 20,000 tons (200 1), accounting for 30% of the total output of the industry. There are 20 companies whose profits and taxes exceed 100 million yuan, accounting for 6 1.8% of the industry profits and taxes. The data shows that the industry is currently dominated by decentralized production.
Polarization is increasing. In the existing market, the position of traditional famous wines is increasingly consolidated, and famous wines are constantly introducing middle and low-grade wines to seize the market. For example, Wuliangye series has everything from 400 yuan to 10 yuan, and Jiannanchun has Jiannan Daqu and Mianzhu Daqu, which squeezes the market share of small and medium-sized wineries and intensifies the polarization of the industry. A survey in large and medium-sized cities in 12 in early June, 2002 found that in the off-season, the national liquor price rose slightly, and the price of high-grade liquor rose by about 5%.
The tax loss is more serious. According to the national liquor consumption tax collection method of 1994, relevant experts calculated that the national liquor output of 1996 should be taxed about 40 billion yuan, but actually only received 9.7 billion yuan. This means that about 75% of the tax revenue has been lost. Taking 200 1 as an example, the output of 4.2 million tons should increase by 4.2 billion yuan after the specific tax is added, but in fact, the tax of 200 1 has only increased by less than 654.38 billion yuan. The serious loss of tax revenue not only makes the state finance suffer losses, but also shows that the actual tax revenue of liquor enterprises is very different, and the living environment of enterprises is actually seriously unfair.
countermeasure analysis
Take a multi-pronged approach to purify the environment and strengthen government supervision. In view of the fact that local protection will not disappear automatically, tax evasion needs to be rectified, and cheating consumers is unfair competition, it is still very important for the government, especially the central government, to purify the business environment of liquor.
First, we must strengthen the regulation of the number of enterprises. 1998 the state required liquor enterprises to implement the production license system, but it did not achieve the expected results. In order to standardize the industry, in 2002, the state reiterated that liquor enterprises registered after 1 September, 19991according to the first batch of Catalogue to Stop Repeated Construction in Industrial and Commercial Investment Fields of the State Economic and Trade Commission would not accept the application for production license. If this regulation can be strictly implemented, it will play a better role in the current fragmented and chaotic industry order of liquor industry.
The second is to strengthen the whole process supervision. In addition to the production license, in February this year, the State Economic and Trade Commission and other six ministries and commissions also discussed the establishment of the "three certificates" system for industry access and the "production and marketing business voucher system". This opinion is now reported to the State Council in the form of economic and trade commission documents, and will be implemented after being approved by the State Council, which will play a good role in purifying the circulation of liquor.
The third is to strengthen tax collection and management. The tax policy formulated by the state should treat all enterprises equally, but now the enterprises that pay taxes strictly are usually large and medium-sized state-owned backbone enterprises, and some small and medium-sized enterprises tend to evade taxes. If the supervision and management of tax collection are not strengthened, the new consumption tax policy formulated to promote the survival of the fittest and accelerate the concentration of liquor production to advantageous enterprises will be difficult to really play its role. While strengthening law enforcement, we should also speed up the formulation of sub-industry standards, guide enterprise behavior, promote the standardization of liquor production, and improve the product quality of the whole industry; At the same time, it also provides a basis for consumers to buy goods and safeguard their rights and interests. For example, the standard of aging is only yellow wine, not white wine. Now many enterprises in the market are selling aged liquor, but there is no clear standard for the proportion of aged liquor contained in a bottle of wine.
Make a fuss about market segments. At present, the competition of liquor is very fierce. For enterprises and industries, it is very important to find market gaps and develop new markets. Using the method of market segmentation can open a new window for enterprises and avoid the minefield of blind competition. Taking the wedding banquet as an example, from the traditional wedding customs, consumption composition and consumption psychology, the custom of drinking wedding wine at the wedding can be said to be enduring. According to estimates by authoritative organizations, the total annual wedding spending in China amounts to hundreds of billions of yuan. If the wedding consumption only accounts for 5% of the total annual wedding consumption in China, it can also share the market share of tens of billions of yuan in the wedding market. Jiangsu Gaogou Winery, once on the verge of bankruptcy, developed "Jin Shiyuan Wine" in 1996, and made a big fuss about the word "fate" to plan a series of large-scale wedding activities. It took only one year to recover the lost land in Jiangsu, and then built plate markets in many large and medium-sized cities in China, such as Wuhan and Beijing. The wedding banquet market itself can also be subdivided, such as urban market, rural market, coastal areas and other factors such as consumption habits and consumption psychology will be different. For example, Gu Feng Group in Sichuan, according to the demand of rural wedding consumption, made counterpart development and specially produced "Gu Feng Double Happiness Wine", which opened the rural wedding wine market. Sports is also a business opportunity for liquor industry. For example, Jinliufu, a subsidiary of Wuliangye Group, seized the theme that China football team reached the top 32 in the World Cup and launched the World Cup wine collection, which was snapped up. In fact, being good at market segmentation can often bring better development space for enterprises and industries.
Shaping brand competitiveness. At present, the competition of liquor mainly stays at the level of promotion, advertising and price war, but from the fact that famous liquor is becoming more and more popular in the market, it can be seen that "brand" is the most powerful weapon for liquor enterprises to win in the competition. The reason why "brand" is so powerful is that brand is the external expression of enterprise's core competitiveness, and it is a unique competitive advantage built by an enterprise in its technology, cost control, management level, marketing, organizational structure and corporate culture. An enterprise can maintain its competitive advantage under the ever-changing competitive situation. When enterprises build their competitiveness on the basis of brands, they can get out of the vicious circle of liquor promotion wars and gain market advantages. For example, "Qixiang Guizhou Alcohol", on the basis of China's traditional liquor-making technology, blended with foreign liquor-making technology, implemented product innovation, made a breakthrough in liquor flavor, and created the international taste of China liquor. Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai are the most prominent core competitiveness of China liquor industry.
Of course, brand building cannot be achieved overnight, but a long-term project; Building a brand is not just a matter for the marketing department, but a systematic project, which runs through the whole process of enterprise management. When building a brand, an enterprise should not only integrate all existing enterprise capital, product structure, organizational structure and other resources, but also absorb external technology, capital or brand output, including establishing joint ventures, technology transfer and transferee, expanding investment location, broadening financing channels, etc., so as to extend the expansion of product varieties and industrial fields, realize the integration of external resources, and finally greatly improve business ability, enhance competitiveness and achieve long-term development. When the competition in liquor industry is based on brand, the industry will form a benign competitive pattern of survival of the fittest, which will bring vitality and vitality to the whole industry.
Prospect: Survival of the fittest is the main theme, and consumer demand is stabilizing. In recent years, people's consumption of beer and wine has been increasing, and the concept that excessive drinking of liquor is harmful to health has been recognized by more and more people, and the consumption of liquor has been decreasing year by year. However, at the end of 20001,a market survey conducted by relevant institutions on urban and suburban residents in 30 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu showed that liquor is still an irreplaceable consumer product in the life of urban residents in China. The overall penetration rate of liquor in 30 cities reached 3 1.4%, which was higher than that of wine, and the penetration rate of liquor tended to be stable in recent three years, especially in northern cities. 200 1 national consumption survey of large and medium-sized shopping malls also draws the conclusion that liquor consumption tends to be stable.
After five years of continuous production reduction, the proportion of liquor in the whole industry is about 15%, which is close to the level of distilled liquor in developed countries and also reaches the output target set by the Liquor Industry Association in 2005. Considering the tradition of our country and the vast rural population, the production and sales of liquor in China will remain basically stable if the policy remains unchanged.
Accession to the WTO has little impact. From the import point of view, liquor is a traditional industry in China, which has little connection with the world liquor, so the liquor market with China characteristics will not be greatly affected after China's entry into WTO. However, the current tariff of liquor is 65%, and it will be lowered to 10% in 2005, which will greatly increase the price competitiveness of foreign liquor and may occupy some domestic liquor market share. Most of the internationally popular liquors are around 40 degrees, and the drinking method is flexible, so you can add ice and carbonated water. Moreover, the sanitary quality is relatively high, which is attractive to the younger generation in China and consumers who value brands, and will have a certain impact on middle and high-grade liquor.
Go out through the exit. Liquor is a traditional export variety of China liquor industry, but its export volume fluctuates in recent years. After China's entry into WTO, if we don't pay attention to the quality standards and flavor of liquor products, more favorable terms of trade will not necessarily lead to export growth.
The impact of new forces outside the industry. Just as liquor companies are sighing hard, non-industry capital keeps pouring into this industry. Baoguang Pharmaceutical and Hope Group, the largest private enterprise in China, are fighting for "drinking Langjiu". Previously, Changsha Haida Company, which mainly engaged in real estate and building materials, bought out Wuliangye Group's "Jinliufu" wine, and in two or three years, it was shaped into a famous wine that was popular all over the country, which made many enterprises eager to try. Subsequently, the famous Seven Wolves, Dahongying, chongqing lifan Group and Red Bean Garment also entered the liquor industry one after another.
There are two reasons for the influx of new troops from outside the industry into the liquor industry: First, although the profit margin is declining, compared with other industries, liquor is still a high-profit industry with relatively low entry threshold, so some enterprises continue to enter the liquor industry. Second, there is some confusion in the liquor industry at present, and the supply exceeds demand. However, there are not many enterprises that really have the ability to do the national market, and there are even fewer national brands in the true sense. Even Wuliangye's market share is only 10%, and its concentration is very low, which increases the chances of new entrants' success. The influx of these non-industry funds will not only impact the existing liquor enterprises, but also bring new vitality, accelerate the pace of capital and resource integration in the liquor industry, and make the liquor industry gradually move towards standardization and order in its adjustment.
Low-alcohol and multi-flavor become bright spots. With the continuous improvement of people's living standards and the enhancement of health care awareness, low-alcohol liquor is becoming more and more obvious. According to the alcohol content, liquor is divided into high-alcohol liquor, low-alcohol liquor and low-alcohol liquor. The alcohol content of high-alcohol liquor is above 50 degrees, that of low-alcohol liquor is 40-50 degrees, and that of low-alcohol liquor is below 40 degrees. According to statistics, during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period, the alcohol content of Chinese liquor decreased by 10% on average, the proportion of low-alcohol liquor and degraded liquor increased to over 80%, and the proportion of high-alcohol liquor was less than 20%. At present, the clean and refreshing liquor with low acid, low ester, low methanol and low fusel oil and the new style and taste of fruit fermented distilled liquor developed with apples, hawthorn and other fruits as raw materials to meet the requirements of agricultural industrialization have become the growth points of liquor industry. These new varieties meet the consumption demand of consumers, and also conform to the development trend of world liquor, and have certain market development prospects.
The concentration gradually increased. The liquor industry is still dominated by decentralized management, and the market competition is close to complete competition, but the concentration is constantly improving. For example, 1998, the total output of the top 20 enterprises accounts for 19.9% of the total output of liquor, and the total profits and taxes of the top 20 enterprises account for 45% of the total profits and taxes of liquor; In 200 1 year, the total output of the top 20 enterprises accounted for about 23% of the total output of liquor, and the total profit and tax of the top 20 enterprises accounted for 6 1.8% of the total profit and tax of liquor. The remarkable improvement of industry profit concentration will help outstanding enterprises maintain their development potential and accelerate the survival of the fittest in the industry. If the liquor production license policy and tax policy are strictly implemented, the profit and output of liquor industry will be concentrated in about 10 large enterprises in the next 15 years.
2/ Direction:
As early as 1987, the national "three ministries" put forward the development direction of high quality, low alcohol content, multiple varieties and "four transformations" for China liquor, that is, from high alcohol content to low alcohol content, from distilled liquor to fermented liquor, from grain liquor to fruit wine, and from ordinary liquor to high quality liquor. It should be said that this development direction actually puts forward the basic concept of modern liquor. Over the past 20 years, with the joint efforts of everyone, this basic concept has been widely recognized and thoroughly implemented. The development of modern liquor has entered a new period.
However, the old inertia, the disorder of the development order of the industry, especially the rise of new lifestyles and consumption patterns have made the liquor industry in China in a period of adjustment and adaptation. The output of liquor decreased year by year, from 8 million tons in 1996 to about 4 million tons now. The market order is worrying, fake wine is repeatedly banned, management is rigid, efficiency is poor, and taxes are heavy. The most serious thing is that many consumers have a low overall evaluation of the liquor industry and lack confidence. At the same time, red wine, beer, wine, etc. Quickly occupy the beach, internal and external troubles emerge one after another. In this chaotic season, it is very important to correctly grasp the situation and recognize the development trend of China liquor industry. First of all, China Liquor, as the concentration and accumulation of the country's 5,000-year-old culture and the medium of interpersonal communication, still plays an irreplaceable role in people's real life. China culture will not die, and China liquor will not die. On the other hand, China's culture is advancing with the times, people's lifestyles and consumption patterns are constantly adjusting, and their demands are increasingly diversified, especially the pursuit of leisure, health and individuality, which is becoming more and more urgent with the acceleration of the pace of life. These new market demands urgently require the revival of China liquor and the modernization of traditional industries. So the people who drink have changed, and the wine itself has to change. The basic idea is: on the basis of enriching and developing the connotation of traditional liquor, combine the traditional skills of China liquor with modern technology, especially modern biotechnology, and actively embark on a road of modernization of China liquor.