The economic rise of China depends on the emergence of historic opportunities and the ability to seize them, both of which are indispensable. In the face of the financial crisis and economic recession in the United States, a major historical opportunity may be coming quietly. Today, China is more capable of seizing this opportunity than any other country at any time. We should keep a clear understanding of this.
First, it is an opportunity, not a disaster.
1, China's monetary system, banking system and capital market system are relatively independent. Looking at the current international economic situation, due to the characteristics of financial integration in developed countries, the crisis in the United States has not spared developed countries such as Europe, Japan and Canada. China is one of the few big countries that have been less affected by the crisis, relatively emerged from the US financial crisis, and can take the initiative in this crisis.
Because China is relatively independent in the monetary system, capital market system and commercial banking system, and has no direct connection with the developed countries represented by the United States, China's commercial banks and capital markets have not been excessively affected by the US subprime mortgage and financial crisis, thus avoiding the direct impact of the "financial tsunami", which is incomparable to other countries.
2. The macroeconomic and microeconomic fundamentals of China are still good. China's economy has been growing at an average annual rate of 10% since the 30 years of reform and opening up and the financial crisis in the United States, and this growth momentum has not been affected by the economic recession in developed economies such as the United States in recent years. Even under the impact of the American financial crisis, China's macro-economic growth and micro-performance growth of domestic enterprises are still good. Therefore, it is called an oasis in the desert of world economic recession, with strong ability to open up domestic demand market and great potential for economic development.
3. The current financial situation in China is good. Different from the characteristics of major developed countries in the world when they encounter financial crisis: from the perspective of bank assets, the total savings assets of our banks are 46 trillion, of which residents' savings are nearly 18 trillion, and the difference between deposits and loans is about 12 trillion, so the funds are relatively sufficient. Since the beginning of this year, although corporate funds are generally tight, this is due to tight macro-policy decisions. Once a loose policy is adopted to deal with the financial crisis, it will be characterized by sufficient liquidity. At the same time, since the listing of major commercial banks in 2005, the governance structure has also been greatly improved, so the asset quality of banks is also relatively good. From the perspective of foreign exchange reserves, the reserves of $65,438 +0.8 trillion also enable us to have sufficient self-protection and coping ability in the face of this financial crisis. Judging from the national fiscal revenue, the fiscal revenue of 5 1 trillion in 2007 can give us enough ability to protect ourselves in this crisis. Go to www.studyez.com, the self-study exam website.
China has great potential to develop the domestic demand market. It will have a certain impact on China's exports, but China's population of 654.38+0.3 billion and huge domestic demand market are unmatched by any other country in the world. Even in the context of the US financial crisis, although the retrogression of US consumption has limited China's exports to a certain extent, once the loose monetary and fiscal policies have started a huge domestic demand market, the decline in exports can be completely compensated by domestic demand. From the perspective of investment, there are a large number of infrastructure projects in China's huge towns that need funds to boost the economy. There is great potential in both the supply of funds and the selection of projects. Our ability to cope with the US financial crisis is adequate.
It is under this understanding that international public opinion generally regards China as an "oasis in the desert" of the world economic recession. They generally hope that China will take the lead and stand with the United States and other developed countries to deal with this crisis. Some multinational companies and entrepreneurs also regard China as a haven to avoid the financial crisis and the best investment place after comparison. They are optimistic about China and invest in China. At the same time, the global crisis triggered by the American financial crisis will inevitably bring about the adjustment of the global industrial structure and a new division of labor. China will transform from low-end migrant workers in manufacturing to high-end financial and service industries.
Second, we should help each other, not help each other in the same boat.
At present, all countries in the world hope that we can help America. At this time, we should also fulfill the responsibility of a big country, showing that we stand with the major countries in the world to tide over the difficulties together, seize the historical opportunity, and proceed from our own reality to find a win-win model.
Although almost half of China's huge foreign exchange reserves are purchased from US Treasury bonds and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, there are still some people in China and the United States who believe that China should continue to help the United States rescue the market by purchasing US Treasury bonds and "help the United States in the same boat".
With China's existing national strength, financial resources and foreign exchange reserves, it is unrealistic and risky to pull the United States out of the quagmire. I hope that China's mode of "saving the United States from the same boat" by increasing the purchase of US Treasury bonds or directly using sovereign funds such as China Investment Corporation will get us deeper and deeper. If the economic recession in the United States intensifies, we will eventually become peers from "outsiders" and become passive and unable to get out.
Therefore, we should get out of two misunderstandings from a strategic perspective: first, the misunderstanding that "the financial crisis in the United States is a secondary disaster in China, so saving the United States is saving China"; The second is the view that "saving America means buying American creditor's rights and equity".
In the face of this crisis, what we should choose is not to "help each other in the same boat", but to "help each other in the same boat", that is, to find ways to help the United States and the world economy out of the predicament outside the big ship of the United States.
Third, start with revitalizing the stock market and help the outside world settle down first.
First of all, the financial crisis in the United States cannot deny the development trend of the modern financial system dominated by securities finance and based on the capital market. Indirect financing of commercial banks and direct financing of capital market will be two wheels to promote China's future economic development. If the crisis in the United States originated from the blind innovation and excessive development of financial derivatives, then the development of the financial industry, especially the direct financing of the capital market, is far from enough for China today. Therefore, China's financial development stage is completely different from that of the United States, and it must be vigorously developed.
Secondly, the stock market is not only a barometer of a country's economic, social and political situation, but also the most sensitive indicator of a country's social stability. Facing the impact of the US financial crisis, although the opportunities in China far outweigh the disasters, why do China people feel that they are in it? An important reason is that China's stock market plunged for a year, and the rate of decline far exceeded that of the United States. Why is the economic development of China countries an oasis in the desert of world economic recession, while China stock market is the hardest hit area of world stock market decline?
In the long run, this state of the stock market is extremely harmful. First of all, it will support the social financing of commercial banks and repeat the old practice of high bad debt rate and systemic risk in 2005. Second, the stock market downturn will have a negative impact on our real economy, which will also happen in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. If measures are not taken in time to activate the stock market, it may lead to the financial industry and other industries, the virtual economy and the real economy entering a vicious circle and falling into this global economic disaster.
Obviously, whether from the perspective of saving the market from the US financial crisis or from the perspective of China's own need to vigorously develop direct financing in the capital market, we should start with revitalizing the stock market, activating the stock market and inspiring confidence. Starting from the capital market, seize the opportunity. As long as we find the main reasons why China's stock market is different from that of the United States, we can get out of the downturn quickly with half the effort.
Fourth, get out of the misunderstanding that the decline of China stock market is affected by the US financial crisis.
Since June 65438+ 10 last year, the plunge of China stock market coincides with the decline of overseas stock markets caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis. The accidental coincidence of the stock market decline often leads people to link the reason of the stock market decline in China with the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which leads to market panic. Go to www.studyez.com, the self-study exam website.
However, a careful analysis of the reasons for the continuous plunge of China stock market this year is quite different from the decline of American stock market affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. The decline of American capital market is caused by a series of problems such as American economic recession, financial crisis and subprime mortgage crisis. However, the macro-economy of China stock market was good in this period, and the quality and micro-performance of listed companies have been greatly improved after the share-trading reform. In the past two years, the performance has been increasing at a rate of 50%, and there is no fundamental condition for the US stock market to plummet.
At the same time, the China stock market is not directly related to the American stock market system, and its risks cannot be directly linked to the A-share market. Although the decline in the stock markets of the two countries is ostensibly caused by lack of confidence, the lack of confidence of American investors is caused by the laws of the market itself. However, investors' lack of confidence in China is artificially caused by policies. In China, the influence of policy factors on the stock market is far greater than the market itself.
Over the past year, China's stock market not only fell as much as that of the United States, but also fell more than that of the United States. Whether the US stock market goes up or down, the China stock market goes down. So far, the US stock market has fallen by only 30%, while the China stock market has fallen by more than 65%. Therefore, we must get out of the misunderstanding that the decline of China stock market is affected by the US financial crisis. The main reason for the decline of China stock market is not influenced by the United States, but has its own special internal reasons.
Five, the primary factors leading to the stock market decline are "size" and "size limit"
1, "non-size" originated from the share-trading reform in 2005. Historically, listed companies in China indicated in their prospectuses that they would not circulate non-tradable shares for the time being, which led investors to enter the market at high prices. In view of the fact that non-tradable shares will enter the circulation state, which will drive the share price of tradable shares to fall, the share reform is to let non-tradable shares obtain the circulation right through consideration. In this process, the losses that may be brought to tradable shareholders will be compensated by non-tradable shareholders.
In the share reform, because the basic mode is the mode of sending shares from non-tradable shares to tradable shares, for example, 10 sends three shares, that is, non-tradable shareholders send three shares for every tradable shareholder 10. After the tender offer of shares, non-tradable shareholders have the right to circulate. Considering the huge market pressure for non-tradable shareholders to get the circulation right as soon as possible after giving up their shares, the regulatory authorities promulgated the policy of "locking one and crawling two" under the creeping circulation, that is, after 65,438+02 months, 5% of the total share capital of listed companies can be circulated, after 24 months, 65,438+00% can be circulated and after 36 months, 65,438+000% can be circulated. Among them, the non-tradable shareholders who hold more than 5% of the company's total share capital are called "Fei Da" and those who hold less than 5% are called "Xiao Fei" (Xiao Fei 12 months after circulation 100%).
China's share-trading reform began in June 2005, and by the end of 2006, more than 360 listed companies except 1 000 were basically completed. Judging from the overall situation of companies that have undergone share reform, after the shares were sent out, due to the reason of "locking up one and climbing two", non-tradable shares could not be sold immediately. Therefore, the stock market showed an overall rise, even reaching 6000 points. However, with the arrival of the lifting of the ban, "non-size" has gained "freedom" at an accelerated pace, which has caused great pressure on the market.
2. About the "size limit". "Size" means that the shares held by the sponsors of listed companies usually have a three-year lock-up period when they are listed, that is, they can only be circulated after three years from the date of listing. This circulation right to sell shares is called "term". However, shares subscribed by way of capital increase and share expansion within 0/2 months before listing can be circulated one year after listing, and the lock-up period is only one year.
At present, the so-called "non-size" in the market refers to the appearance after the new and old were cut off in May 2006. The so-called dividing line between the old and the new is limited to May 2006 18. After that, all the new listings are tradable shares, and there is no problem of split share structure. In other words, once the one-year or three-year lock-up period ends, these stocks can automatically flow out without sending shares to shareholders through share reform. Therefore, investors should consider this risk when buying such stocks.
For example, under the background of overseas full circulation, the average price-earnings ratio of IPO is between 8- 12 times, and the price is relatively low. However, the average P/E ratio of 298 stocks issued in China stock market is as high as 30 times. The highest P/E ratio of China Ocean Shipping (60 19 19, Share Bar) is even higher than the P/E ratio issued during the period of non-tradable shares. The reason is that we didn't publicize the important moment of "cutting off the old and the new" in a big way, telling investors that the stocks bought from May 18, 2006 have been fully circulated, so we must consider the risk of automatic outflow after one or three years, and don't buy and sell at such a high price in the primary market. However, because this kind of publicity has hardly been carried out, poor shareholders are still unconsciously buying stocks according to the thinking of the split share structure.
3. The reality of "size" and "size limit" and the great pressure in the future. During the share reform in June 2005, there were about 460 billion non-tradable shares in the total share capital of more than 300 listed companies in China/KLOC-0. In May 2006, after the separation of old and new shares, among the 298 newly issued shares, the "non-size" reached 800 billion shares, which was 1.5 1 times of the "non-size". The total amount of "non-size" and "non-size" is as high as 1.26 trillion shares, which is more than twice as much as the more than 600 billion tradable shares formed in 18. These stocks are invested at a cost of about one yuan, which is in sharp contrast with the IPO price of more than ten yuan or even dozens of yuan in the market. Even if the stock market falls to 1000, there is still room for profit.
So far, only110 billion shares have been issued, but only 21300 million shares have actually been sold. Then 1. 1.8 trillion non-tradable shares were lifted. The time for lifting the ban is getting more and more urgent, and the market feels the pressure of "size and size" in the downward trend. The "small limit" also began to flow out, and the expectation that the "big limit" began to flow out in the second half of 2009 brought great pressure to the market. So this is the main reason why the stock market can't hold its head.
Whether this 1. 1.8 trillion restricted shares will flow out in reality or not, this is the thinking of investors when considering investment risks, because there is the possibility of its outflow in reality. If we simply conclude that the more the stock market falls, the less restricted shares will flow out, and think that "size and size" is not the main contradiction of the current stock market decline, then we can't find an effective solution to this problem.
Sixthly, the zero-cost mode that the major shareholders lock themselves to reduce the price to solve the pressure of restricted shares.
If we can come to the conclusion that the main contradiction leading to the stock market decline at present is "non-size" and "non-size", then if we reflect on a series of American-style policies to save the China stock market from falling, we will find that no matter tax reduction, margin financing and securities lending, or capital injection and repurchase, there is no remedy to the case. What China stock market lacks is not the lack of confidence caused by money, but the lack of confidence caused by policies. Therefore, the key to stabilizing the China stock market at present lies in facing up to the problems of "size" and "size".
At present, as long as "non-size" and "non-size" are the main factors leading to the decline of China stock market, we have already taken a crucial step, and it is not far from solving this problem. Because subjectively speaking, all parties concerned in China stock market, whether regulators or investors, whether major shareholders of listed companies or intermediaries such as securities companies, are looking forward to a win-win situation in the stock market. Objectively speaking, both the macro level of China's national economy and the micro level of listed companies' performance have the external environment and internal conditions for the stock market to rise.
The specific way is: through the voluntary locking of the circulation reserve price of restricted shares by major shareholders, from simple time locking to price locking, the problem of restricted shares is completely solved.
1, what is the price self-locking of major shareholders? The so-called voluntary price locking means that the major shareholder of a listed company voluntarily locks the reduction price of its non-tradable shares at the pre-set transferable reserve price. This price refers to the lowest price that can be circulated preset by the major shareholder himself. The shares he holds can only be sold above this price. Below this price, the shares he holds will be automatically locked and will not be sold. This price can be determined by the listed company according to the actual situation of the company and referring to the stock price of the company when the market is between 3000 and 5000. Suppose that the self-locking transferable reserve price of the major shareholder of a company is set to 15 yuan, that is, the shares held can only be sold if they are above 15 yuan. If the stock falls below 15 yuan due to its selling, it will be automatically locked.
2. Procedures for major shareholders to reduce their holdings by self-locking.
(1) The major shareholder proposed a motion of self-locking the transferable reserve price. According to the Company Law, any shareholder holding more than 5% of the shares can propose a motion and vote in accordance with the legal procedures of related party transactions. This proposal is a kind of self-restraint for sponsors, which is in the interests of minority shareholders and the whole company, and there is no legal obstacle without fear of being rejected.
(2) After the proposal is passed, it shall be publicly disclosed in the media, and the transferable reserve price voluntarily locked by major shareholders shall be made public. This proposal, like other proposals at the shareholders' meeting, should be abided by once it is passed. At the same time, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will check the implementation.
(3) If the company sends shares or converts shares in the future, its transferable reserve price will also move down accordingly.
This proposal should be initiated by major shareholders and put forward voluntarily to achieve a win-win situation in the stock market. Among them, the core is the voluntary price locking of major shareholders.
3, the corresponding supporting measures
The specific measures can be: make full use of the monopoly position of listed companies in China, and SASAC can advocate nearly 860 state-owned listed companies to support the self-locking of the circulation reserve price of major shareholders of listed companies. More than 800 private listed companies can be advocated and coordinated by the securities industry association. In this process, China Securities Regulatory Commission only needs to give priority to those listed companies that have passed the proposal of transferable reserve price of major shareholders.
4. Feasibility of major shareholders of listed companies to implement this plan.
At present, China stock market has fallen to the present level, which not only loses its function, but also fails to realize the refinancing function and value-added function of listed companies. This is a lose-lose situation. Judging from the contact between the author and the major shareholders of more than a dozen listed companies, they are all willing to give this information to market investors through the self-locking of the negotiable reserve price, so as to dispel the doubts that non-tradable shares can circulate at any time and realize the rise of their share prices. Similarly, many CEOs of listed companies have great confidence in their own companies, but they are powerless in the current market position. So with a little guidance, all parties concerned can reach a consensus on this issue, because it is in the interests of both sides. The negotiable reserve price is achievable. At present, some companies have published similar information, but because there is no group effect and the voice is weak, it has not played a role in the overall decline of the market.
5. This practice is different from share reform.
To promote such reform measures, we need to make two explanations: first, the self-locking of the transferable reserve price of listed companies is by no means a second share reform. First of all, this measure was voluntarily proposed by the major shareholders, and there is no problem of compulsory execution by relevant government departments. Secondly, the determination of the transferable reserve price is made voluntarily by the major shareholders of listed companies between 3000 and 5000 according to their own conditions, and there is no unified price control imposed by the outside. If the negotiable reserve price is set low, its share price will be low; If the negotiable reserve price is set high, its share price will be high. Because less than that point, investors have no doubt about the reduction of the company's major shareholders. Second, the self-locking of the transferable reserve price of major shareholders is a price constraint, not a time constraint like "locking one and climbing two", and the risk is lagging behind.
The author believes that if this voluntary locking proposal is a group behavior, not just an individual behavior, it can resolve the systemic risk of restricted shares and stimulate market confidence.
6. The timing of this measure is the key.
Although the negative effects of the year-long stock market decline have begun to appear in listed companies, we can still play a role by adjusting and implementing the self-locking measures of the transferable reserve price of major shareholders because the macro-economic and micro-performance of listed companies in China have not deteriorated as a whole. If it is put off until next year, once the market and listed companies enter a vicious circle, even if there are good measures, there is nothing they can do. Therefore, the fourth quarter of this year is the key for us to reverse the continued downturn in the stock market through policy measures.
Seven, different ships help each other, the first choice is to fight in Hong Kong.
We should fulfill our responsibility as a big country and promise to tide over the difficulties with developed countries. An innovative idea is to find a favorable bright spot in the process of the general decline of the world capital market. Let it shoulder the mission of capital market recovery. And this, as far as China is concerned, the first choice and the most suitable place is Hongkong.
60% of listed companies in the Hong Kong market are H-share companies and red-chip companies from the Mainland, and Hong Kong's economy is mainly supported by the Mainland. However, in terms of financial system and monetary system, the monetary and financial systems of Hong Kong and the United States are completely integrated. If the subprime mortgage crisis still has a great negative impact under the background of relatively independent mainland market, it is mainly transmitted from Hong Kong. Therefore, invigorating Hong Kong as a pawn can boost the capital markets of the United States and other countries externally, and generate positive interaction with A-shares internally, instead of transferring overseas risks to China through this channel.
Specific measures can enable CIC to shift its strategic focus from the United States to Hong Kong, hold the forefront of Hong Kong, and absorb Hong Kong H shares with excessive foreign exchange reserves, thus encircling Wei and saving Zhao. Now, as long as China can invest in any part of the international capital market, it will have the Buffett effect, and the hand of China can inspire the confidence of the world. By occupying the bridgehead of Hong Kong, it not only assumed the responsibility of a big country, but also promised the mutual assistance of the United States, achieving the goal of killing two birds with one stone:
First, buy H shares to reduce the risk of excessive foreign exchange reserves.
Second, at this time, buying H shares with great investment value, selling US dollars and repurchasing the equity of domestic basic industries can preserve and increase the value.
Third, the Hong Kong market will go to the United States and connect with the mainland of China. We invest in Hong Kong, and promoting Hong Kong is tantamount to helping the United States from outside. Fourth, H shares in Hong Kong have a positive pulling effect on A shares. By holding this bridgehead, the panic channel for the external financial crisis to spread to the mainland of China will be blocked, which will lead to a loss of confidence.
Buying H shares is a measure for Hong Kong capital market to help overseas capital market. Externally, it can stimulate the recovery of other overseas markets. After all, there is a place in the sinking capital market all over the world-Hong Kong, a promising place. Internally, not only is the negative impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis no longer transmitted to the A-share market, but the recovery of H-shares can also drive the rise of A-shares. Fighting the Hong Kong campaign well has taken an important step to revitalize the overall situation.
In short, the key to seize this great opportunity to make China rise historically is to activate the mainland A-share market and buy back H-shares in the bridgehead of Hong Kong.
It is predicted that in the next three years, China's macro-economy will change from the accelerated growth period from 2002 to 2007 to the stable growth period: first, the GDP growth rate will fall back, but it will still maintain a relatively fast growth rate; Second, the proportion of domestic demand in the demand structure will further increase, especially the contribution of consumption to economic growth will be significantly enhanced; Third, the pace of economic and financial structural transformation is accelerated, the financing structure is further optimized, and the proportion of direct financing will be significantly increased; Fourth, the intensity of industrial upgrading and independent innovation will continue to increase.
In the next three years, China's economic growth will be slightly slower, domestic demand will gradually become the main driving force for China's economy, financial reform will be accelerated, and industrial upgrading will be intensified. Therefore, buying stocks requires domestic demand stocks, financial stocks that can flexibly cooperate with financial reform, and manufacturing stocks that have the ability to innovate and expand the market.
2009-20 1 1, the overall social mobility remained abundant, and m 2 maintained a high growth rate, but the possibility of staged liquidity tension increased. In the next three years, liquidity in the banking system is generally abundant, but the frequency of phased capital shortage has increased significantly;
The pressure of short-term overseas capital input has generally increased, but the possibility of "phased capital outflow" is rising rapidly, which will become an important exogenous variable affecting the stable operation of China's economy and finance in the next three years.
There will be a large outflow of funds next year. Pay attention to the term "phased capital outflow", that is, hot money or sudden outflow will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. Don't laugh at the analysis report that the RMB can depreciate. Grandpa has warned you, but when this "stage" will appear, only the owner of the hot money knows. If grandpa still doesn't stimulate the economy in the next six months, the external economy will improve. The author believes that in the first half of 2009, he will meet with the "big money".
In the next three years, asset prices may rise gradually in fluctuations. Among them, house prices are expected to show a slight steady increase after a sharp slowdown, but there is a greater possibility of a general decline in the short term; In 2009, the stock market will still face greater uncertainty, and the shock may intensify. 20 10 and 20 1 1 are expected to maintain a gradual upward trend in a small shock.
Is it expected that the period from 20 10 to 20 1 1 will be particularly good in recent years? However, if governments can stimulate the economy as early as they wish, a new president of the United States will be born immediately after taking office. When the number of contracts to reset interest rates in the United States is small around April 2009, the expectations of the American economy can be changed to mid-2009 and 2009-2060.
Supervision orientation and structural reform forecast;
(1) Steadily accelerate the reform of the resource price system.
The general principle of resource price system reform is to gradually establish a market-oriented price formation mechanism that can reflect the scarcity of resources, market supply and demand, environmental costs and other factors under the condition of fully considering the affordability of all sectors of society.
First, continue to speed up the reform of refined oil and natural gas prices and reduce administrative control of refined oil and natural gas prices;
Second, continue to strengthen coal-electricity linkage, promote electricity price reform, and gradually realize that power generation and sales prices are formed by market competition, and transmission and distribution prices are supervised by the government;
The third is to speed up the price reform process of public resources such as heating and water supply;
The fourth is to improve the system of paid use of mineral resources such as coal.
By 20 1 1, the price of mainland resources is expected to be basically in line with the international price. If the resource price in China is basically in line with international standards by 20 1 1, I wonder if Buffett, an American stock god, will buy PetroChina again and then buy resource stocks such as Jiangxi Copper and China Coal Collective by extension.
(2) The interest rate marketization reform has entered a substantive stage.
First of all, gradually cultivate Shibor and national debt yield as the benchmark interest rates in China's short-term and medium-and long-term financial markets, and dredge the interest rate transmission channels in the money market, bond market and credit market;
Secondly, the floating range of deposit and loan interest rates of commercial banks will be further relaxed, and the upper and lower limits of deposit and loan will gradually move closer to the Shibor interest rate in the same period;
Third, after derivative transactions such as interest rate swap, forward interest rate agreement and interest rate swap are launched, interest rate futures, interest rate options and other products are expected to be launched; Finally, with the deepening of interest rate marketization reform, relevant measures will be followed up steadily to ensure the stable development of the banking system. Among them, it is expected that the deposit insurance system will be formally established at the end of 2008 or early 2009 at the earliest.