Phelps got a perfect reward for subverting Phillips.
The prediction of the Nobel Prize in Economics is called "a highly inaccurate scientific work", but some of the smartest people are always willing to speculate on various possibilities. Of the 1 8 candidates listed by Thomson Science Foundation in the past four years, only two finally won the Nobel Prize. In the past two years, only one of Harvard's three most optimistic people has won the prize every year. Phelps won this honor, which many people didn't expect. The University of Chicago has nine Nobel laureates in economics, four in Harvard University and three in Massachusetts Institute of Technology. After Phelps won the top spot this year, Columbia University also has three Nobel laureates in economics.
Our reporter Wang Huiqing is from Shanghai.
The Royal Swedish Academy said at the award ceremony that Edmund Phelps' research work has helped us deepen our understanding of the relationship between the short-term and long-term effects of economic policies. His contribution had a decisive influence on economic research and policy.
Zheng Song, an associate professor of economics at Fudan University, said: "Phelps is the best economist after Keynes. He did a lot of work, provided a micro-foundation for Keynesianism and became a representative of new Keynesianism. " In fact, Phelps' contribution to economic theory is diverse and outstanding, and many research achievements in the 1960s and 1970s are still frequently cited.
Explain the mystery of Keynes
Throughout the late 1960s, Phelps tried to bridge the gap between macroeconomics and microeconomics.
In the late 1960s, Phelps introduced microeconomics based on expectations into the dynamics of employment and wage determination. Keynes's Keynesian theory, which was developed in 1930s, left two unsolved mysteries: first, why involuntary unemployment still exists in a good economic situation; Second, why does the reduction of "effective demand" lead to the increase of unemployment rate, that is, why can't money wages and prices fall immediately to prevent the reduction of employment? The challenge is how to explain these problems under the framework of traditional economics.
In phelps's "micro-macro" model, achieving market equilibrium (that is, the expectations of market participants are consistent with their actions) cannot eliminate unemployment, or even involuntary unemployment. In his paper 1968, he established a labor force conversion model (t h e l a b o r t u r n o v e r m o d e l), emphasizing the losses brought by labor force conversion to enterprises, so the salary must be an "efficient salary" that can reduce the frequency of employees' job conversion and work hard, which is higher than the salary at equilibrium, thus explaining the existence of involuntary unemployment. In the paper of 1969, phelps established the "island model", explaining that even if the workers are not satisfied with the salary level of their "island", they are still unemployed in the process of leaving their own island for the "island" with higher salary.
The important discovery of these models is the existence of disequilibrium and its influence on economic activities. Wrong expectations of wages and prices will affect the unemployment rate. For example, in the "island model", if the expected average wage of workers is lower than the actual average wage, then some workers may accept jobs that are lower than the actual average wage and stop looking for these jobs, so the unemployment rate will drop.
An explanation for Keynes's dilemma gradually surfaced: the undetected increase in "effective demand" pushed up the monetary wage level and price level, but enterprises did not expect this increase, so employment would decrease. In other words, if the real price and wage level rise beyond the expected level, then the increase of "effective demand" will increase the unemployment rate. This actually involves a world with incomplete and imperfect information. 1On the weekend of June, 969, Phelps convened an informal meeting in Pennsylvania to discuss this field that was being explored at risk. Economists attending the meeting had a full exchange, and the collection of essays on the Micro-basis of Unemployment and Inflation Theory published after the meeting set off the first round of research on this new branch of macroeconomics.
Modified Phillips curve
These models also contain another deviation from traditional economics. These models usually assume that the equilibrium of unemployment rate depends only on non-monetary factors, so it has nothing to do with inflation rate. Being "neutral" about currency and inflation greatly simplifies economic analysis. This means that once expectations change with changes in economic policies, the central bank's inflation target cannot affect the unemployment rate. Therefore, inflation will not affect the long-term unemployment rate.
This is not unusual in logical reasoning, but it challenges Keynesianism and Phillips curve. In 1950s and 1960s, people thought that there was a stable trade-off relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate, which was the so-called "Phillips curve". According to this theory, reducing the unemployment rate will pay the price of rising inflation.
Phelps first became interested in Phillips curve in theory in the summer of 1966, and in the first few months after he entered the University of Pennsylvania in the autumn of the same year. The criticism and development of Phillips curve is also Phelps' most famous academic contribution. Phelps gave policy suggestions by establishing a series of models and constantly revising them: today's low inflation leads to the expectation of low inflation in the future, so it is helpful for future decision-making.
For most of the 1970s, Phelps studied how to prove theoretically that if every economic person can make rational expectations, then the deviation from equilibrium can only be monetary. He believes that if the decisions of wages and prices are asynchronous, it will take some time for the deviation from equilibrium to disappear even under rational expectations. This study promoted the rise of so-called "neo-Keynesian macroeconomics".
In 1980s, phelps further developed the disequilibrium analysis, and proposed that if each economic participant did not adopt the same model and method to form the expectation of economic variables such as employment and price, the existence time of disequilibrium would be further prolonged.
grow up
Phelps was born in Evanston, Illinois in the summer of 1933. At that time, the United States was at the bottom of the Great Depression and both parents were unemployed. At that time, it was also the period of the formation of Keynesianism, and the policy meaning of Keynesianism: saving the economic depression through government intervention became the most popular practice.
Phelps 195 1 entered Amherst College. In the first year of college, he fell in love with Plato, Hume and others, and became interested in philosophy. However, under the influence of my father who studied economics and my mother who studied housekeeping, I began to contact economics courses in the second year. In the study of economics in the university, Phelps gradually showed his unique intelligence.
As a beginner, he keenly felt the gap between macroeconomics and microeconomics, and became interested in how to communicate with each other. It was this interest that prompted him to introduce microeconomics into macroeconomics founded by Keynes and become the leader of new Keynesianism.
Because Yale University was rising in the field of economic research at that time and could offer attractive scholarships, Phelps chose it. There, Phelps studied under his long-admired James Tobin.
During this period, Tobin, thomas schelling, Artruoqun and other famous scholars benefited a lot from their outstanding wisdom and tireless teaching. Some central European economists also had an impact on Phelps, and he was deeply impressed by the expectations that these economists attached importance to.
After receiving a doctorate in literature and philosophy from Yale University, Phelps came to Los Angeles in June 1959 and started his first job at RANDCorporation. But Phelps soon felt that the environment there did not meet his desire to study. At this time, the Cowles Foundation of Yale University offered a very rare academic position, so Phelps returned to Yale at 1960.
During this period, he put forward the "golden section law" of economic growth, which is regarded as an important progress in the research of growth path initiated by robert solow. During this period, as a reward for his research work, Phelps was invited by MIT1962 ~1963 to visit him. In just a few years, Phelps has become an economist with international prestige.
Phelps 1966 left Yale University and went to the University of Pennsylvania, turning a new page in his academic career. At the end of 1960s, his academic achievements were fruitful. According to Phelps' memory, in the first few years of his career, he was like a container full of thoughts.
It was during this period that Phelps established and developed a series of models and criticized and developed Phillips curve. Phelps first became interested in Phillips curve in theory in the summer of 1966, and in the first few months after he entered the University of Pennsylvania in the autumn of the same year. His famous paper "Phillips Curve, Inflation Expectation and Optimal Employment with Time" was completed in the winter of that year and published the following year, which attracted wide attention.
With the breakdown of his first marriage and the constant interference of his personal life, his academic career has also entered a trough. 197 1 autumn, Phelps entered the economics department of Columbia University, which was the third time in his life to start a new stage through reform work. He stayed there for eight years.
There, he met his second wife Viviana Montedo and got married in 1974. After his personal life settled down again, Phelps began to enter a period of high academic yield.
During this period, he made extensive research on economic fairness, structural rigidity of labor market, monetary policy under rational expectation, inconsistent wage or price setting, implicit contract under asymmetric information and rational expectation itself.
In 1980s, Phelps began to want to use an introductory textbook to record the major economic issues he was thinking about. 1in the spring of 985, his textbook "Political Economy: Introduction" was published. From 65438 to 0990, phelps sorted out his accumulated understanding of the current situation and progress of macroeconomic research, and published the book Seven Schools of Macroeconomic Thought, which was also regarded as a summary of his academic research achievements.
At the age of 60, Phelps wrote an autobiography and made a liquidation and review of his work. Looking back on his past achievements makes him happy, and seeing that these achievements can have an impact on others makes him more satisfied. He felt that his affairs had entered a calm stage.
In his view, academic influence is not the main part of his personal achievements, but the reward from other aspects, especially from the work itself, is the most important criterion. Knowing this, he can choose his own research topic according to his hobbies, not from the outside world.
Zheng Song said: "Since Lucas 1995 won the Nobel Prize, Phelps has been the most popular candidate for the Nobel Prize in Economics. Although not many people know him, his academic achievements far exceed those of well-known economists such as Man Kun. "
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Looking for "China Curve"
Our reporter Song Lei from Beijing "It is generally believed that Phelps won the Nobel Prize in Economics. Economists who won the Nobel Prize in 2004 also studied macroeconomics. " Zhang Haiyu, director of the Financial Center of the Institute of Economic System and Management of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that macroeconomics is a hot topic in world economics research. Due to the increasingly complex situation of micro-subjects, pioneering research is urgently needed in the macroeconomic field. Phelps won the title of "Founder of Modern Macroeconomics" for his pioneering research in this field.
Evaluating Phillips' macroeconomic research, Zhang Haiyu thinks that, first of all, his research has a wide range of tentacles, including employment, inflation and deflation, savings, public debt, taxation, intergenerational equity, prices, wages, micro-subject behavior, capital formation, fiscal and monetary policies, and his most successful field-economic growth. In addition, Phelps' thinking can go beyond the "macro" itself and combine the micro-subject behavior with the impact on the macro-economy. "This has broken through the thinking mode of previous macroeconomic research." Zhang Haiyu said.
However, this research method is lacking in the current macroeconomic research in China. Zhang Haiyu believes that at present, China's macroeconomic research still stays on data analysis and economic forecasting, and there is no in-depth research, which will lead to a lack of foundation for macroeconomic decision-making and a lack of systematic explanation from basic economic facts to macroeconomic policy choices.
In the form of social and economic changes, China needs pioneering macroeconomic research. We can learn from phelps's theory and mode of thinking, establish a model to study China's macro-economy, including wage curve, consumption curve and even China's economic growth cycle curve. We can not only predict whether the economic growth is too fast or too slow, but also study the stage of the economy and find out the reasons and laws of the linkage between "micro" and "macro".
In 2002, Phelps gave a speech at Renmin University. Zhang Haiyu's perceptual impression of him is that he is very lively, and his description of economic phenomena is vivid and simple.
Edmund Phelps
● 1933 was born in Evanston, Illinois, when the United States was at the bottom of the Great Depression.
● 1955, with a Bachelor of Arts degree from Amherst College, USA.
● 1959, received a doctorate in economics from Yale University, and studied under Professor james tobin, the Nobel Prize winner.
● I have taught at Yale University and University of Pennsylvania.
Since1971,he has been a professor of economics at Columbia University. At the same time, he is also an academician of the American Academy of Sciences, an expert at the Federal Reserve Academic Conference, and an adviser to the US Treasury and the Senate Finance Committee.
● Known as "the founder of modern macroeconomics" and "one of the most important figures influencing the process of economics"
● The most important contribution lies in the theory of economic growth. After robert solow, the dynamic optimization path of economic growth was analyzed, and the famous "Huang Jinlv of economic growth" was put forward, thus the theory of economic growth was formally established.
Respondents: Huahai 0 10- scholar level 310-10: 49.
In 2006, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Edmund Phelps, a famous representative of employment and growth theory, in recognition of his research achievements in the field of intertemporal macroeconomic decision-making. "Looking at the characteristics of recent Nobel Prizes in Economics, we can conclude five award-winning fields: general equilibrium theory, macroeconomics, microeconomics, interdisciplinary research and new methods of economic analysis.
Among them, most of the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to macroeconomics. This time is no exception. At the same time when the award results were announced, Professor Chen Xiaohong, a domestic economic expert, dean of the Business School of Central South University and doctoral supervisor, got the news at the official website of the Nobel Prize Committee.
The contribution lies in a curve and a model
In short, Phelps' economic growth Huang Jinlv answered people's questions about how to match labor and capital. This is undoubtedly useful for economic forecasting under the background of current domestic labor-intensive and large-scale foreign investment. "Professor Chen Xiaohong commented that Phelps' most important contribution to macroeconomic theory is that together with Friedman, the Nobel laureate in economics, he independently put forward the theory of modifying Phillips curve, which is called Friedman-Phelps theory. In macroeconomics, Phillips curve represents an important macroeconomic relationship, that is, it describes the relationship between monetary wage growth and long-term stability of unemployment rate.
Phillips believes that there is an alternating relationship between the growth rate of monetary wages and the unemployment rate, which is the Phillips curve linking the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate. But Phillips curve can't explain the future price adjustment well. If the expected factors of price adjustment are added to the Phillips curve, when the expected inflation rises, the Phillips curve will move up, thus forming a Phillips curve with additional expectations. This established phelps's outstanding position in macroeconomic theory. Another theoretical contribution of phelps is to establish a non-cooperative model of wage and price pricing to study the natural unemployment rate, implicit wage contract, lag effect and unemployment.
Phelps' theoretical contribution is also his famous "Huang Jinlv". Robert solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, once put forward the theory of balanced growth. Phelps put forward "Huang Jinlv of economic growth" by using this theory, and further discussed the labor-capital relationship. In fact, "Huang Jinlv" usually refers to the optimal allocation of labor and capital in the path of balanced growth, that is, the labor-capital ratio is regarded as the most important economic relationship, and a predictable economic growth can be determined by adjusting the labor-capital ratio.
Chen Xiaohong believes that phelps's theory has important reference value for China today, because China's economy cannot avoid unemployment, inflation and improve investment efficiency. For example, will overheated investment have an impact on employment in China? Will it have a medium-term impact on China's employment and economic growth? How do structural factors affect employment and growth in China? What is the impact of foreign economic prosperity on China's economy? The current economic overheating and investment overheating and so on. This is also one of the important reasons why she pays attention to Phelps' award.
The economics prize can stand the test of time best.
Unlike the Nobel Prize in Physics and Chemistry, which focus on the latest scientific frontiers, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics should not only reach the highest professional level, but also stand the test of time. This is also the reason why candidates for the economics prize are generally known to the industry. Professor Chen Xiaohong said that in the past, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded 10~ 15 years later or even later than the achievement prize. For example, Mandre, the winner of 1999, won the Nobel Prize in Economics, which actually existed as early as the early 1960s and was finally verified by two major events: one was the Asian financial crisis that broke out in 1997; The other is 1999, when the euro was officially launched. This also means that as a social science, the value of economic theory needs time to test, which can also reflect the seriousness of the Nobel Prize in Economics.
"At present, domestic economists are still in the stage of learning and explaining western economic theory. In the immature stage of market economy countries, China economists need to create economics more. " Chen Xiaohong said that the Nobel Prize complex of China people has never been so heavy as it is today. However, for China's economics, it is a pity that 57 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, it failed to knock on the door of the Nobel Prize Hall. As Mundell, the father of the euro, said, whoever can study and solve a series of problems in China's economic development will win more than one Nobel Prize in Economics.
She believes that the western market economy system is quite mature, and when it only needs long-term repair and improvement, there is no practical premise for major innovations and breakthroughs in economic theory. China is not. The reform and reconstruction of the economic system, which is hard to push forward, is an unprecedented great practice in human history. Its "volume" is so large, its content is so rich, and its old and emerging new economic forms are so full of "China characteristics". It stands to reason that this place should be a unique "fertile ground" for cultivating China Nobel Prize winners in economics.
In modern western economics, the main object of Nobel Prize is in the mainstream position in China, and it is still in the stage of introduction, introduction and preliminary research. Therefore, we should face up to this huge gap between the development and maturity of Chinese and foreign economics. As long as we are brave in practice and exploration, and build up confidence, there is great hope that China scholars will win the Nobel Prize in Economics in the future.
Responder: fat dead ant-trainee magician level 310-1010: 51.
Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Economics
Edmund Phelps
Edmund Phelps
● 1933 was born in Evanston, Illinois, when the United States was at the bottom of the Great Depression.
1955, with a bachelor of arts degree from Amherst College, USA.
● 1959, received a doctorate in economics from Yale University, and studied under Professor james tobin, the Nobel Prize winner.
● I have taught at Yale University and University of Pennsylvania.
Since1971,he has been a professor of economics at Columbia University. At the same time, he is also an academician of the American Academy of Sciences, an expert at the Federal Reserve Academic Conference, and an adviser to the US Treasury and the Senate Finance Committee.
● Known as "the founder of modern macroeconomics" and "one of the most important figures influencing the process of economics"
● The most important contribution lies in the theory of economic growth. After robert solow, the dynamic optimization path of economic growth was analyzed, and the famous "Huang Jinlv of economic growth" was put forward, thus the theory of economic growth was formally established.