Implementing the strategy of developing the western region, narrowing the development gap between the east and the west, promoting the coordinated economic development of various regions and realizing social sustainable development are important topics and arduous tasks we are facing in the new century. To implement the strategy of developing the western region, we should use new ideas and methods to "promote great development by opening wider to the outside world". Economic opening is a powerful driving force for economic development, and economic development always starts from the departments and regions where the economy is open. Facing the accelerated development of economic globalization, the development of the western region will be more closely linked with the opening up. However, opening up is inseparable from trade. Foreign trade is the oldest form of foreign economic development in all countries, and it is also the most important and abundant activity in foreign economic opening up so far. In foreign trade, it is the core of foreign trade research to cultivate and give full play to China's comparative advantages and correctly choose foreign trade strategies in order to obtain trade benefits. Therefore, for the western region (including Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Tibet, etc. ), it is undoubtedly of great significance to analyze and study the comparative advantages of this region and choose a foreign trade strategy that is conducive to giving play to this advantage (or potential advantage).

The origin and present situation of foreign trade in western China

The western region, which opened to the outside world earlier, has a long trade tradition. As an ancient "special economic zone" in China, it played a window role in foreign exchanges (especially in Central Asia). The economic and trade cooperation between western China and Central Asia has a history of 100 years. The famous "Silk Road" has made the economic and trade relations between western China and Central Asia very close. Nagasawa Kazutoshi, a professor at Waseda University, once pointed out: "The Silk Road is a rare international trade channel in ancient times, the main artery connecting Eurasia, the main axis of world development, and the mother of modern civilization, which laid the foundation for the development of vast areas in Europe and Asia." Since the Han Dynasty, after the Three Kingdoms, the Jin Dynasty, the Southern and Northern Dynasties and the Sui and Tang Dynasties, the trade between the northwest region and Central Asian countries has reached an unprecedented scale. By the Qing Dynasty, there was a large-scale free trade between northwest China and Central Asia. Only in modern times, the trend of desertification in the western regions and other factors made the "Silk Road" no longer brilliant.

Since the reform and opening up, although China's foreign trade has made remarkable achievements, it has become the tenth largest trading power in the world. However, the foreign trade in the western region was once in a downturn, always hovering at a low level, and the dependence on foreign trade was low for a long time. From 65438 to 0996, the dependence on foreign trade in the whole western region was only 9.4%, while the national average was 35.55% and the eastern region was as high as 48.49%. Its absolute trade volume is only US$ 65.438+0.0975 billion, which is about 654.38+0/654.38+00 of Guangdong Province, accounting for only 3.78% of the total national trade.

From the perspective of the structure and geographical direction of import and export commodities, first of all, from the perspective of import, the western region is in the early stage of the development of energy and mineral resources, and the supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient. Therefore, it mainly imports mechanical and electrical products, steel, chemical raw materials, automobiles and their accessories, fertilizers, pesticides and other materials, and mainly imports from developed countries and regions, such as the United States, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong and so on. Secondly, in terms of exports, the western region mainly exports raw materials, primary products and finished products. In recent years, the proportion of manufactured goods has gradually increased, and the structure of export commodities has initially completed the first step from exporting primary products to exporting industrial products. Take Gansu as an example. From 1998, the export of primary products in this province accounts for 1 1.5%, and industrial products account for 88.5%, of which industrial and mining products account for 78.4%, agricultural and sideline processed products account for 12.6%, and agricultural and sideline primary products account for 9%. Up to now, the western region has exported to more than 70 countries and regions, but exports to Hong Kong, Japan, the United States, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Germany, Italy, Britain, France, Sweden and other countries and regions account for more than 80% of the total exports of the western region. In recent years, the proportion of Central Asia and West Asia in the export trade of the western region has also begun to increase.

Comparative advantage analysis of foreign trade in western China

(A) theoretical and empirical analysis of the comparative advantages of labor productivity and labor costs relative to the eastern region.

The theoretical basis of traditional international trade is Ricardo's comparative advantage theory and Russian forest resource endowment theory. The root of international trade is international division of labor, which enables countries to specialize in producing their own products with the most comparative advantages and exchange them in the international market to form international trade. The theory of comparative advantage means that different products produced by different countries have differences in labor productivity or cost, and each country produces its own products with comparative advantages and obtains the maximum benefits through international trade; The theory of resource endowment means that each country has different resource endowment, that is, the richness of labor, natural resources, capital and other factors. Therefore, every country can get the greatest benefits when it produces products that make use of its most abundant production factors and participates in international trade. These theories are not only the core of all western international trade theories, but also constitute the theoretical basis of a large number of empirical verification.

Through decades of development, the labor productivity of the eastern coastal areas has been greatly improved, but at the same time, its original advantage of low labor cost has been weakened day by day, so that it has gradually lost its comparative advantage in the international market. Then, what is the level of labor productivity and labor cost in the western region compared with that in the eastern region? Table 1 shows the differences in labor productivity and labor costs between the eastern and western regions and the whole country during the period of 1996. Table 2 compares their unit wage output value and unit wage amount in that year.

Table 1 1996 labor productivity and labor costs in western region, eastern region and the whole country

Region, province, domestic production, employed population, average per worker

Gross output value (100 million yuan) (ten thousand people) Annual output value (yuan) Salary (yuan)

Tibet 64.53115.6756118930

Sichuan 4215 6464.9 6519.8 5438+00

Guizhou 719.50000.00000000015

Yunnan1491.622186.2 6823 631

Shaanxi1175.381762.7 56666676.5666766666

Gansu 714.181521.46 556666

Qinghai183.57 247.20 7426 6513

Ningxia193.62 245.36 795438+0 55656

Xinjiang 9 12. 15——5098

8757.7314326.69+012 in the western region.58080.00000000805

Eastern region 37903.23906.338+0154.8 299.9.

National 67795 68850 9846.8 6795+00

Note: (1) This table is compiled according to China Economic Yearbook (1997); (2) Labor costs are replaced by the average wages of employees (regions); (3) Labor productivity = per capita output value of employed population = (regional) GDP/ (regional) employed population

Table 2 1996 Output Value and Amount of Unit Wages in Western, Eastern and National Regions

Regional/Provincial Unit Wage Output Value (Yuan) Unit Wage Output Value (Yuan)

Western region 1.03 0.96

Eastern region 2. 19 0.45

National 1.59 0.63

Note: This table is compiled according to table 1.

It can be seen from the table 1 that the labor productivity in the western region is about 38% lower than the national average and 6 1% lower than that in the eastern region, while the labor cost is only 5.2% lower than the national average and 18.56% lower than that in the eastern region. More specifically, the output value of wages in the west is low. For every 1 yuan salary in the west, only the output value of 1.03 yuan is needed, while the output value of the east needs 2. 1.09 yuan, and the national average needs1.09 yuan. At the same time, wages per unit output value in the west are on the high side. In the west, the output value per 1 yuan can be 0.96 yuan, in the east it is 0.45 yuan, and the national average is 0.63 yuan. It can be seen that although the western region has a certain comparative advantage in labor cost, this advantage is not enough to make up for the disadvantage of low labor productivity in the western region.

(2) Analysis of the realistic comparative advantages of capital and resources in the western region.

1. Capital. Due to the imperfect market, insufficient competition and serious "bottleneck" constraints, investment constraints in developing countries or regions are often particularly tight, and insufficient capital is the common feature of these regions. For the western region, on the one hand, since the reform and opening up, China has implemented an unbalanced regional development strategy, and the state investment has tilted sharply to the eastern region, making the shortage of funds in the western region more prominent. From 198 1 to 1995, the fixed investment of state-owned units in the eastern coastal areas increased from 45.9 1% to 54.27%, and 15 increased by 8.36 percentage points, while that in the western region increased from17.49. On the other hand, from 1985 to 1995, the eastern coastal area accounts for 87.3%, and the western area only accounts for 4.2%. At the same time, under the comprehensive effect of preferential policies and market forces, a considerable part of funds in the central and western regions have flowed to coastal areas through various forms such as bank deposit-loan difference, horizontal investment and stock investment.

2. resources. Among the main production factors such as labor, capital and resources, resources should be said to be the only rich factor and advantage in the western region at present. (1) Energy and other mineral resources. Although the western regions are poor on the ground, they are rich underground. According to the survey, the main minerals in the western region are natural gas, coal, oil, nickel, copper and lead, of which the conservative reserves of coal reach 300.9 billion tons, accounting for about 20% of the national total; The oil reserves are 565,438+1100 million tons, accounting for 23% of the total land reserves in China; Natural gas reserves are 435.4 billion cubic meters, accounting for 58% of the national land reserves; Nearly 62% of nickel and 57% of platinum in China are concentrated in Gansu, and 97% of potassium salt is distributed in Qinghai. (2) Resources such as agriculture and animal husbandry. Due to the special ecological conditions such as illumination, temperature difference, soil quality and water quality, many agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry products in the western region have irreplaceable and incomparable natural monopoly in other regions. The fruits, herbs, furs and other specialties in the west have long enjoyed a good reputation. If we can deeply process and open up the market, it is very likely to become a hope industry in the west. (3) Tourism resources. The western region has a long history and complex and peculiar terrain, forming rich and colorful and unique cultural and natural tourism resources. In terms of human resources, the western region is the birthplace of ancient Chinese civilization, with many cultural sites, ancient capitals of dynasties, tombs, religious sites, grotto walls and so on. In addition, the multi-ethnic areas have outstanding folk customs and characteristics, forming rich cultural tourism resources. In terms of natural resources, natural landscapes such as rivers and lakes, strange peaks and dangerous mountains, plateau basins and Xuefeng glaciers in the western region constitute the unique foundation of tourism resources in the western region.

The above analysis of the labor force in the western region is carried out in comparison with the eastern region. The comparative advantage of relatively low labor cost in the east (although this advantage is weakening) has always played an important role in foreign trade. The low labor cost in the west will make this advantage more prominent in the international market, but its low labor productivity and serious capital constraints will greatly restrict its labor cost advantage. Although the comparative advantage of western resource endowment is obvious, it can only become a potential advantage at present due to various reasons such as capital bottleneck, market constraints and technical conditions, and it is difficult to evolve into a commodity advantage and an industrial advantage. To sum up, according to the theoretical basis of international trade and the current reality, there are deficiencies and defects in the realistic comparative advantage of foreign trade in the western region. Therefore, how to choose the correct trade strategy has become an important topic in the development and opening up of the western region.

Third, the choice of trade strategy in the western development.

It is true that the theory of comparative advantage is a static theory, and the above analysis of comparative advantage in the western region is mainly carried out from a static perspective. However, the comparative advantages of labor, resources and factor endowments are indeed the basic factors that objectively affect the trade strategy of a country and region. Therefore, the above-mentioned static analysis of the comparative advantage of the western region is not limited to the acquisition of static interests, but aims to provide ideas for the choice of trade strategy in the western region through the analysis of this basic factor affecting trade strategy.

(A) the principles and standards for the choice of trade strategy in the western region

Countries and regions have certain principles and standards when choosing trade strategies. These principles or standards have similarities, but also have their own characteristics. The author believes that the western region, as the underdeveloped region of the largest developing country in the world, has its special regional conditions for economic development and the special national conditions of large developing countries, so the following principles and standards should be followed when choosing trade strategies:

1. is conducive to the acquisition of dynamic interests and sustainable development. The western region has been in a state of low development for many years. If we only emphasize the pure static trade interests and ignore the long-term dynamic interests in opening up, we may gain some static trade interests in the short term because of its advantages in resource endowment and labor cost (although it is weakened due to the low level of labor productivity, it still has certain relative advantages), but lose the dynamic interests in promoting industrial evolution, technological progress and institutional innovation through trade in the long term. At the same time, excessive predatory exploitation of resources will destroy the fragile ecological environment in the west. Therefore, the choice of trade strategy in the western region should be conducive to obtaining dynamic benefits, maximizing the linkage effect of the development of superior resources and industries, and realizing sustainable development.

2. It is conducive to the coordination between the east and the west, giving full play to the extensive advantages of the domestic market and building an export-oriented regional economic network. China's regional economic structure is very unreasonable, and the contradiction of dual economy is prominent, while the western and eastern regions should not only support the vast domestic market, but also face the fierce international market. This requires that the western region should avoid conflicts with the development strategies and policies of the eastern region when choosing trade strategies, and cannot transfer the problems of the eastern region to the western region. Instead, we should give full play to regional advantages, promote the coordinated development of the eastern and western economies through division of labor and cooperation and reasonable adjustment of industrial structure, make full use of the vast domestic market, and build an export-oriented regional economic network.

3. It is conducive to fully adapting to and utilizing the international economic environment. Under the trend of economic globalization and the increasing liberalization of the global multilateral trading system, if the western region cannot seize the opportunity and gradually integrate into the international economic cycle, its economic development will be very difficult. Moreover, if the trade strategy it chooses is too protective, it may lead to retaliation or trade conflict from its trading partners, set a gap for China's entry into WTO, or incur sanctions that violate the principles and spirit of WTO after its entry into WTO. Therefore, how to adapt to and make use of the international economic environment is one of the basic issues that should be considered when formulating trade strategies in the western region.

(B) Analysis of the applicability of several trade strategies in the western region

The basic types of trade development strategies mainly include import substitution and export orientation. There are many arguments about which is better or worse in academic circles, but it is unrealistic to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of trade strategy without objective constraints because of the lack of in-depth analysis of the objective basis and conditions of trade strategy choice. It should be said that all kinds of trade development strategies have their effectiveness and limitations, and they all have their advantages and applicability in specific realistic situations. Then, what kind of trade strategy should be adopted for the western backward region with low trade level and level, inconspicuous actual comparative advantage and difficult potential comparative advantage?

1. Import substitution trade strategy.

Import substitution trade strategy refers to the trade strategy of substituting domestic production and protection for imports and domestic sales for exports. Import substitution is one of the strategic ways for developing countries' industrialization development, and its main purpose is to protect the development of their comparative inferior industries and realize industrialization.

Import substitution strategy has obvious policy characteristics: at the tariff level, high tariffs are the basic means to achieve protective development of import substitution. Domestic import substitution occupies a certain market share under the protection of high tariffs, and establishes its own industry and industrial system by protecting the domestic market; In terms of tariff structure, import substitution imposes lower tariffs or even import subsidies on capital products and some inputs to reduce the input cost of domestic production; In terms of foreign exchange and exchange rate, the import substitution strategy generally overestimates the exchange rate to reduce the production cost of imported inputs, and often strictly controls the foreign exchange supply to control the total import volume, the structure and geographical direction of imported goods; In terms of government regulation, import substitution is a typical government regulation and protective trade strategy. The establishment of non-tariff barriers, the provisions of tariffs and exchange rates, and the provision of special preferences are all manifestations of government intervention or control.

There is no doubt that the industrialization process is still the only way for the underdeveloped region in the west, which is rich in natural resources and seriously lags behind in economic and trade level. On the one hand, due to the loose input constraints of various resource elements in establishing capital-intensive industries, on the other hand, because the domestic market of labor-intensive products and capital-intensive products is relatively large, when some resources are used in capital-intensive industries, the rest are used to produce labor-intensive products, so that their products may not be used for export after meeting the domestic market. Therefore, the import substitution in the western region is conducive to giving full play to the broad advantages of the domestic market, and is still conducive to a certain degree of sustainable development at this stage, thus obtaining long-term and dynamic industrial development benefits. However, the policy requirements of import substitution in terms of tariffs and exchange rates are very likely to conflict with the trend of gradual outward-looking and internationalization of the eastern economy, which is not conducive to the establishment of export-oriented regional economic networks. Moreover, ignoring comparative advantages and obvious import substitution protection tendency is not conducive to adapting to and utilizing the international economic environment, and may also lead to trade conflicts and sanctions.

2. Export-oriented strategy.

Export-oriented trade strategy refers to the trade strategy of promoting industrialization and the whole economic development by expanding the export of manufactured goods. It is an important way for South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and many other newly industrialized countries and regions to achieve economic take-off.

The policy characteristics of export-oriented trade strategy are: at the tariff level, the average tariff level required by export-oriented is low, which is conducive to reducing the cost of imported inputs, and at the same time, import substitution cannot be developed under excessive protection; In terms of exchange rate, the export-oriented trade strategy implements a relatively appropriate balanced exchange rate, and sometimes underestimates the exchange rate to promote and encourage exports; In terms of subsidies, the primary policy tool of export orientation is export subsidies, and the main forms of subsidies are export tax rebate, export credit and export credit guarantee. In terms of government regulation, export orientation objectively requires the implementation of a free trade system, and requires the government to relax control and eliminate trade barriers, especially non-tariff barriers.

The export-oriented strategy attaches importance to comparative interests and trade interests, especially the dynamic interests brought by trade, which is helpful to give play to the comparative advantages (or potential comparative advantages) of the western region. Export-oriented is a typical export-oriented economic strategy. If the western region adopts this strategy, it will help to better coordinate the relationship with the east, thus creating an overall export-oriented regional economic network. On the other hand, encouraging and expanding exports provides information exchange channels and sufficient competitive pressure for technological progress and institutional innovation in the western region, which is conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the western region from both supply and demand. Export substitution advocates actively participating in the international division of labor and making full use of the international market and international economic environment. However, too much emphasis on export will lead to dependence on the international market and neglect the vast domestic market, and excessive export will worsen the terms of trade in the western region. Even the potential advantages of immiserizing growth and the western region in resources make them mainly export resource-intensive products, which may lead to predatory exploitation of resources, which is not conducive to sustainable development. In addition, export subsidies emphasized by export substitution may also lead to trade frictions and violate WTO rules.

3. Mixed trade strategy.

In view of the effectiveness and limitations of import substitution and export orientation, it is suggested to combine their advantages, not only to protect the domestic market from independent industrialization through import substitution, but also to use export incentive policies to give play to their respective comparative advantages and promote economic development. This is the so-called "mixed trade strategy". If this effective combination works in theory and practice, it is obviously the most ideal trade strategy for the western region. However, although many countries have not implemented a single and thorough import substitution or export-oriented strategy, the above ideal combination is extremely difficult and feasible. The reason is that the protection policy will be transferred to the export industry through the process of economic integration, which will increase the pressure and burden of export. The statistics of this transfer coefficient are as low as 0.43 and as high as 0.95. Import substitution not only increases the relative prices of imported goods, but also increases the relative prices of non-traded goods, which will increase the prices of imported inputs and domestic inputs, which is equivalent to taxing export products. The implementation of export incentive policy will offset the protective effect of import substitution. In a word, the "anti-export tendency" of protection policy determines that it is impossible to combine export orientation with import substitution strategy. This is especially true for the western region, because most of the goods that need to be imported in the west are capital goods, with high technical content and value content, and the transfer coefficient to export products is higher.

4. Trade strategy of supporting internally and opening to the outside world.

The trade strategy of "supporting internally and opening to the outside world" is a trade strategy of "opening to the outside world in an all-round way based on international comparative advantages, relying on the domestic market, supplemented by moderate protection". (1) This strategy emphasizes giving full play to its own comparative advantages and taking the road of export-oriented development. Although the actual comparative advantage of the western region is not obvious, it still has a certain relative comparative advantage, especially its huge potential comparative advantage. Therefore, under the background of world economy, the sustainable development of trade and economy can be guaranteed by tapping, utilizing and giving full play to the comparative advantages of the western region and establishing its own export industry and leading industry. (2) The trade strategy of "domestic support and opening to the outside world" attaches importance to the role of the domestic market, which supports the development of foreign trade. The vast domestic market is not a reason to refuse foreign trade, but it is the advantage of developing countries after all. At present, although the market in the western region only accounts for a small part of the domestic market, it has great market potential. Some large companies and enterprises along the eastern coast, and even some multinational companies, are now looking to the west. If the potential market in the western region is developed, it will form a deeper and wider domestic market together with the eastern and central regions, providing more support and guarantee for developing economies of scale, supporting industrialization and opening up, and improving international competitiveness. (3) The trade strategy of domestic support and opening to the outside world advocates a free trade policy under the moderate protection of the government. The development of the western region is a long-term and arduous task, which requires the efforts of several generations. In this process, it is inseparable from government actions and the protection of some backward and immature industries, but the whole trade tendency is free and the free trade policy is generally implemented.

Therefore, the trade strategy of domestic support and opening to the outside world belongs to the open trade strategy, which pursues the static and dynamic benefits of trade, treats the domestic market and the international market equally, suits the realistic characteristics and economic development needs of the western region, conforms to the above-mentioned principles and standards of trade strategy selection in the western region in general, and is conducive to giving play to the potential comparative advantages of the western region, obtaining dynamic benefits and realizing sustainable development; Conducive to the coordination between the east and the west, and create an export-oriented regional economic network; It is conducive to observing the basic framework and rules of the WTO, adapting to and utilizing the international economic environment, thus transforming the development potential of the western region into real productive forces, transforming resource advantages into industrial advantages and economic advantages, and providing a broader space and stronger impetus for the development of the national economy.

refer to

[1] Editor-in-Chief Bai Guang. Western development series [M]. Beijing: China Building Materials Industry Press, 2000.

[2] Yang. The Frontier of China's Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Theory [M]. Beijing: Social Science Press, 1999.

[3] Wang Yao is editing. International trade [M]. Changsha: Hunan Publishing House, 1995.

[4] Yin Xiangshuo. Study on the trade development strategy of developing countries [M]. Shanghai: Fudan University Press, 1995.

Chen Feixiang. Open interest theory [M]. Shanghai: Fudan University Press, 1999.