Therefore, the economic growth and "one high and two low" economic situation in the United States that has lasted for 10 years will not continue indefinitely, and the deformation of the economic cycle does not mean the disappearance of the economic cycle. In fact, since the second half of 2000, the GDP growth rate of the United States has slowed down. Although there was still an increase of 1.3% in the first quarter of 200/kloc-0, it fell sharply in the second quarter and fell sharply to-1. 1% in the third quarter, which was 1.993 from the first quarter.
Although the American economy is currently facing many contradictions and defects, it is expected to recover after 2002 because it occupies the commanding heights of many high technologies, especially information and network technologies, macro-policy regulation has become more mature since the 1990s, and it has more advantages than other countries in terms of resources, markets, finance and geo-economy, as well as flexible enterprise mechanism and strong ability to transfer crises abroad.
2. Japan's current economic situation and development trend
After World War II, Japan's economy experienced a recovery period and 20 years of rapid growth. By the mid-1980s, the overall competitiveness of Japan's manufacturing industry once surpassed that of the United States, and Japan's gross national product rose from 6% in the early 1950s to 66% in the early 1990s, making it the second largest economy in the world after the United States.
However, Japan's economy reached its peak in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and its economic bubble also reached its peak. The collapse of the bubble economy plunged Japanese banks, which had lent heavily before, into the quagmire of huge bad debts, and made Japan's economy stagnate at a disadvantage of 2 percentage points lower than that of the United States. In the 1990s, this was the worst economic recession in Japan after the war.
The current predicament of Japan's economy is caused by many reasons, not only the direct cause of the tightening international environment and the decline in exports, but also the policy consequences of the ineffective policy of expanding domestic demand and the accumulation of various contradictions in the past 10 years.
Regarding the growth prospect of Japan's economy, the report published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that it will take time for Japan's economy to really get out of the predicament due to the contradiction between "sparing loans" and expanding investment and consumption, the contradiction between huge fiscal deficit and expanding fiscal policy, the contradiction between structural adjustment and rising unemployment rate, and the contradiction between bureaucratic monopoly and improving efficiency.
However, it should be noted that Japan has a solid manufacturing base, the second largest GDP in the world, and the first GDP per capita among the seven western countries. It is the largest trade surplus country, foreign exchange reserve country and creditor country in the world. Although Japan's economy is unlikely to reproduce its previous high-speed growth in the future, its position in the world economy still plays an important role.
3. EU economic status and development trend
The fundamentals of EU economic growth are stable. At present, the EU economy is in good overall condition. Except for the decline in foreign trade, economic indicators such as investment, consumption, inflation rate, employment rate and finance have basically remained at normal levels. In 200 1 year, the economic growth rate of the euro zone reached 2.4%, which is the highest among the three largest economies in the world.
The structural adjustment of EU countries provides a stable framework for economic growth. In recent years, the EU has begun to reform in taxation, welfare, medical care and employment. The extensive tax reform in 2000 contributed to economic growth. At the same time, the reform of pension system in EU countries is also stepping up. According to the forecast of an EU research institute, starting from 200 1, only one tax reduction will boost the EU's economic growth by 0.5 percentage points every year.
The economic and monetary union effect of the euro has played a positive role. Since 200 1, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has been basically stable, and the stabilizing role of the euro economic and monetary union should not be underestimated. The introduction of the euro eliminated the exchange rate risk in the euro zone, increased the price transparency, and facilitated the integration of investment and financial markets, thus protecting and promoting the coordinated economic development of EU member countries.