Lianhe Zaobao: The Franco-German Marriage under the European Economic Crisis 20 1 0 July 16 08:20 Print on the new website * * * Comments1.

BEIJING, July 15-The French-German Marriage under the European Economic Crisis was published in June 15 by Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao. According to the article, the "Franco-German marriage", the leader of European peaceful reunification and political and economic integration, is becoming increasingly disharmonious. However, after all, the EU has not yet reached the "deadline", and the Franco-German marriage has accumulated a lot of common interests, and "couples in distress" will not "fly separately" in the foreseeable future. However, Franco-German strange bedfellows is undoubtedly a major setback in the process of European unification.

The article is excerpted as follows:

The sovereign debt crisis of the Greek government directly threatened the sustainability of the euro as a unified European currency and became the biggest economic crisis in the history of the European Union. From all indications, this nightmare is far from over. For example, the credit rating of Portugal's national debt has just been downgraded by Moody's on Wall Street, further deepening the severe challenges facing the euro.

What is even more disturbing is that in this crisis, there have been more and more discordant voices between France and Germany, the leaders of post-war European peaceful reunification and economic and political integration, and even rumors of "breaking up", which quite fulfilled the meaning of the old China sentence that "husband and wife are birds in the same forest, and they will fly separately when disaster strikes".

In a recent editorial in Le Monde, France, the first sentence was "The relationship between France and Germany is getting increasingly tense". le figaro interviewed former French Prime Minister raffarin and went straight to the question "Did France pay too high a price to save the necessity of the Franco-German marriage?" ? The German newspaper Le Monde also pointed out that the differences between Germany and France on the debt crisis and EU policies "have reached a level not seen for many years".

This situation is also manifested in the personal relationship between leaders. There is not much friendship between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In recent years, the European debt crisis has increased their differences, leading to an increasingly cold personal relationship. Especially at the beginning of last month, a summit between Sarkozy and Merkel was suddenly cancelled after the French journalists who made a special trip to interview arrived at Berlin airport, which highlighted the deterioration of summit relations.

German media said that Merkel cancelled the summit at the last minute, aiming to retaliate against Sarkozy's earlier "collusion" with southern European countries. At the expense of the Franco-German axis, she forced Berlin to agree to rescue the sovereign debts of the "four pigs" with German-supported EU public funds through surprise attacks and political blackmail, thus helping French banks holding a large number of these national debts.

Economic Effects of Cultural Differences between France and Germany

The tension between France and Germany has deep-seated reasons of political and economic interests. The biggest "structural motivation" of the differences between the two countries is that, for a long time, France's economic development is similar to that of the "pig four countries" in southwest Europe, mainly driven by consumption growth, which leads to out-of-control government expenditure and debt; Germany's economic development mainly depends on manufacturing exports, and both the ruling and opposition parties are known for their diligence and thrift. The fact here is that after more than half a century of economic integration between France and Germany, there are still significant social and cultural differences between the populations of the two countries.

Cultural and interest differences lead to major differences between the two countries on the future direction of the EU. Sarkozy advocates deepening the integration of EU 15 core countries as a long-term strategy to prevent and rescue the euro crisis. After all, he has the intention of further dragging Germany, a big donor country, into the "equality between the rich and the poor". Merkel did not agree, but emphasized the establishment and strengthening of "fiscal discipline" that European countries must abide by, so as to prevent German taxpayers from continuing to be the big spender for the EU.

The clarification of the differences between France and Germany also has the historical "generation gap" factor of the elite. The political leaders of the two countries, who first established the Franco-German coal and steel joint venture and started the process of European integration, have personally experienced the heavy injury caused by the centuries-old feud between France and Germany. Since then, the leaders of the two countries who have continued to promote European reunification still remember the consequences of this struggle. Moreover, before the reunification of Germany and Germany, the ruling and opposition parties in West Germany bore a heavy historical responsibility for World War II and always attached importance to the common interests of Europe in the marriage between France and Germany.

The unification of Germany and the withdrawal of the older generation of leaders from the political arena have significantly changed the above situation. Germany has not only become the undisputed European economic leader, but also a political power. In particular, the return of most parts of East Germany, which was originally Prussia, has significantly changed the religious culture in which Catholicism is the majority in West Germany. Merkel herself is a Protestant East German, which deepens the cultural differences in "work ethics" between France and Germany.

There are examples in which Germany gradually emerged from the shadow of World War II and exerted its influence as a big country. There are also examples in which Berlin publicly complained this spring that Ashton, the British foreign secretary of the European Union, appointed too many nationals without representing "the interests of Europe with the same interests".

Looking back on the term of office of left-of-center President Mitterrand and right-of-center Chancellor Kohl, as well as right-of-center President Chirac and left-of-center Chancellor Schroeder, France and Germany have always maintained close government cooperation and personal friendship at the leadership level, and the cold relationship between President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel, both of whom are right-of-center, is even more remarkable.

This situation was also stimulated by the internal crisis of the leaders of the two countries: President Sarkozy faced the impact of the political donation scandal, while the German ruling Coalition continued to lose in local elections, and Chancellor Angela Merkel was regarded by many as "the omen of Beijing on the fifth day".

Returning to the metaphor of "husband and wife are like birds in a forest", although the euro is facing a looming "survival crisis", the EU has not yet reached the "deadline" (or "catastrophe"), and the huge convergence of interests accumulated since the French-German marriage for half a century will not cause "couples in trouble to fly separately" in the foreseeable future. However, strange bedfellows between France and Germany is undoubtedly a major setback in the process of European unification. According to (Yu)

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Zhu Wenhui: Don't worry too much about the slowdown of China's economic growth by 20 1 July1June1:32 Phoenix Satellite TV * * * Comments1.

Jiang Shengyang: Let's continue the news hotline. Let's pay attention to the economic trend of China. The National Bureau of Statistics of China issued a communique today, saying that China's GDP increased by 1 1. 1% in the first half of the year, and CPI increased by 2.6. Let's watch the news first.

Commentary: According to the preliminary calculation of the Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first half of the year was17284 billion yuan, which increased by11%year-on-year at comparable prices, and increased by 10.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, which was lower than the performance in the first quarter, indicating that the economic growth rate has declined. A spokesman for the Bureau of Statistics said that this is in line with the expectations of macro-control and is conducive to preventing the economy from turning from rapid to overheating. Compared with last year's growth target of 8%, the strong performance in the first half of the year made the outside world expect that the central government might tighten macro-policies in the second half of the year. However, officials of the Bureau of Statistics said that they would continue to use proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy to resist external growth and internal uncertainty.

Sheng (spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics): It is necessary to maintain the stability and continuity of policies, enhance the pertinence, flexibility and predictability of policies according to new situations and new problems, and grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of macro-control.

Reporter: Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, of which it rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, but it dropped from the previous month. As for the rise in prices that many people feel, such as the rise in food prices and the rise in house prices, it is obviously unexpected.

Commentary: Sheng said that more than half of the increase in CPI was affected by price hikes last year, and the new price increase factor this year was only 1.2%, indicating that prices were stable and moderate, responding to external inflation concerns. In the once crazy real estate industry, the investment growth in the first half of the year was relatively fast, reaching 38%. The influence of Sheng's real estate regulation theory on economic growth has not yet appeared.

Jiang Shengyang: Regarding related topics, we ask Mr. Zhu to continue to analyze them for us. Mr. Zhu, just now, we saw in the news clips that the GDP increased by 1 1. 1% in the first half of the year, and increased by 10.3% in the second quarter, indicating that the economic growth rate dropped and the CPI increased by 2.6%, which eased inflation. Is this the role of macro-control, or is it the influence of external factors and weak European and American markets?

We should not worry too much about the slowdown of China's economic growth.

Zhu Wenhui: I think it is obvious that macro-control has played a certain role in this slowdown, because throughout the second quarter, we can see that the figures in May and June are very strong, and China's exports are very strong. Another possibility is the influence of market psychology. For example, if the market psychology is not optimistic about the market outlook, it will adjust the inventory, and there are other measures to reduce investment or slow down production.

In fact, the central point I want to make today is not to worry too much about the economic slowdown in China. Why do you say it? Because in the past two weeks, including these two days, I have been analyzing and talking with China economists of some famous big investment banks. I feel that there is a feeling that China's economy is going down in the market. Even in September and June, 10, with the 4 trillion stimulus plan coming to an end, China will face enormous unemployment pressure. In the first half of the year, including the past year, we found that the situation of labor shortage in various places was relatively large, and of course there were a lot of data to support their pessimistic views.

For example, the data released today is very powerful. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size only increased by 13.7% year-on-year, which was 2.8% lower than that in May. In the first half of the year, it was 17.6%, which was equivalent to 13.7% minus 3.9%. In addition, there is electricity. Last year, it was said that China's economy could stabilize. At the height of the financial tsunami, everyone said that there was something wrong with the data of the China government. Because the data of your electricity consumption is not reflected, this time, we saw the growth rate of electricity consumption, and its acceleration went down. I think it is the same, including industrial added value.

So from these two people, we are more worried. What worries us more is whether many investments, especially those of private enterprises, will stop as the real estate prices begin to fall. I think the prevailing sentiment in the market is that many people think that China's economy is dying. Therefore, we can also see that last week, including the weekend, some people asked whether macro-control should be relaxed, especially for certain industries, especially the real estate industry. There are also some industries, such as industries that consume a lot of electricity. But my overall judgment is, don't worry too much. First of all, back to China, what kind of growth rate is in line with the actual situation of China's economy? I think it should be 9%.

If it is from 1 1.9% in the first quarter to 10.3% now, it is still obviously high in the first half of the year. Sure, you can ask a question. You said the year-on-year was good, but the month-on-month decline was better, and the second was the first. But I think overall, no matter how it falls, it is still above this range. I think 9% is more appropriate, and the other one depends on the decision maker, because he has tools, monetary policy and fiscal policy. Especially when you look at the financial revenue and expenditure announced today, you find that there is a surplus of about 1 trillion, spending less and taking more. He has tools. Which index he thinks is better is the better control range in his mind.

Therefore, I think that if the decision-making level also regards 9% as an interval, he should feel more gratified and say that regulation is moving towards his expected goal. Because what is the biggest difference between the present situation and a year ago, a year ago, it was still in the process of crisis recovery, so what you have to do is not to stop or slow down the recovery, but to maintain this momentum and let market forces continue to stimulate the government. Just like a patient, you operate on him and treat him, but he has a long recovery process and slowly recuperates. At present, the economy has basically recovered, and there are no major problems, including those in the United States. We will talk about Europe later, and there may be some problems, which means that it can affect the whole world in a short time.

So if you make such a judgment, many people think it is wrong to compare with this time last year, because the external environment has changed greatly and the momentum of the whole economic development is completely different. Why are these people so worried? I think it may be affected by two factors. One is the China stock market, which is always unable to get up, including heavy stocks such as Agricultural Bank of China. At least it's a little flat. It's going to be flat for a while. In addition, the real estate is becoming more and more knowledgeable, and the price may be reduced. So from these two industries, we have many analysts who are very close to these two industries. They want to analyze the trends of these two industries, so they get a pessimistic result. Therefore, my comprehensive judgment is that if we think that 9% is good and policy makers also think that 9% is good, then don't worry about relaxing or tightening now, further tightening or relaxing, but wait, because looking at inflation now, the pressure is great. Although the output of agricultural products in summer grain has declined to a certain extent, the overall problem can be controlled, because international food prices and China just have a complementary role, which offset each other.

So on the whole, it should be these months. Because of the rapid changes, we expect it to remain so in July, August and September. Of course, you may arrive at 10 in the third quarter. If the economy is really slowing down, you should relax a little macroscopically, for example, the exchange rate policy will be looser, on the other hand, it will not be ruled out, because if there is pressure on grain at that time and the interest rate is seriously upside down, it will be more comprehensive at this time, but at least it may be a big move after 10. At least in my opinion, this data is good data, not very bad data, which is also the difference between me and my friends in the investment community.

Jiang Shengyang: So you don't think China's economy should be worried for the time being. We have to wait and see, but whether Europe's economy needs our worry, please ask Mr. Zhu to analyze it for us later. Ladies and gentlemen, let's take a break and go back to the news line.

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Hong Kong Wen Wei Po: If competitiveness cannot be improved, Hong Kong must have a sense of crisis. July 20 10, June 16, 08: 19, Zhongxin.com, print * * * with 0 comments.

BEIJING, July 15-Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po published an editorial on June 15, "If competitiveness does not advance, it will retreat, and Hong Kong will have a sense of crisis." According to the editorial, the China Academy of Social Sciences released a report on global urban competitiveness. Although Hong Kong ranked 1 place higher than the last report, its competitive advantage is shrinking, and its development speed lags behind that of many cities, which sounded the alarm for Hong Kong's competitiveness.

The article is excerpted as follows:

China Academy of Social Sciences released a report on global urban competitiveness yesterday. Although Hong Kong's ranking has risen by 1 to 10, its competitive advantage is shrinking. This time, Hong Kong ranked 10, mainly relying on laurels, but its development speed lagged behind many cities, which sounded the alarm of Hong Kong's competitiveness. Competitiveness is like sailing against the current. On the other hand, the competitiveness of Singapore's economic growth has been greatly improved, and Shanghai's comprehensive competitiveness has been rapidly improved. Hong Kong should maintain a high sense of crisis, make good use of its advantages in the regional economic development of the Greater Pearl River Delta and the economic integration of the four places on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, make full efforts to plan development, change the situation of "the race between the tortoise and the hare" and avoid being eliminated in the fierce competition.

In this survey, Shanghai and Beijing both ranked nine places higher than the previous year, while the mainland occupied nine seats among the top ten cities with global economic growth. The Blue Book of China's Urban Competitiveness published by China Academy of Social Sciences last year shows that Hong Kong has the lowest growth competitiveness, ranking 288th in the country. The seriousness of the problem lies in the fact that Hong Kong's comprehensive competitiveness is constantly being chased or surpassed by other cities. For a long time, Hong Kong has failed to solve the problems of economic simplification and industrial hollowing out, and the economic transformation has not achieved remarkable results. With the rapid development of mainland cities, Shanghai has planned to develop into an international financial and logistics center in 2020, when Hong Kong's competitive advantage will face severe challenges.

At present, the biggest problem in Hong Kong is the lack of new economic growth points. Therefore, although the economy rebounded after the financial tsunami, it was mainly caused by the soaring stock market and property market. Moreover, Hong Kong's financial-oriented industrial structure lacks toughness, so that Hong Kong's economy often fluctuates greatly.

The competitiveness of Singapore, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea and other surrounding areas recovered and improved rapidly after the financial tsunami, mainly due to the development of diversified industries. Singapore has developed biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries on a large scale, and its GDP will increase by 13% to 15% this year. South Korea and Taiwan Province Province also have advantages in high value-added manufacturing, providing strong economic growth. Comparatively speaking, the governments in these areas have long-term economic development plans.

Faced with the weakening of competitiveness, which is a major issue related to Hong Kong's future and destiny, Hong Kong lacks in-depth research and countermeasures. Hong Kong has long been constrained by the policy of positive non-intervention and failed to play the role of government-led economic transformation. As a result, emerging industries have been unable to take root for a long time, economic transformation has been ineffective, scientific research and development have stagnated, and Hong Kong's long-term competitiveness has been weakened.

In fact, Hong Kong has the advantages of being backed by the Mainland and having a sound financial and legal system. These advantages are beyond the reach of other regions. The key is that Hong Kong must make good use of them. The authorities should seize the favorable opportunity of the current political dispute fading out, concentrate on economic development, implement specific measures to support the development of six advantageous industries, accelerate the integration of Guangdong and Hong Kong, and expand the economic hinterland of Hong Kong. At the same time, we should also consolidate the advantages of pillar industries such as finance, expand RMB business in Hong Kong, become stronger and better, and maintain Hong Kong's leading position.

I hope I can give you some reference, thank you for your adoption!