-China's economic trend in the post-crisis era. As China's economy stabilized and improved, other major economies gradually recovered. In 20 10, the global economy and China's economy will enter the post-crisis era. Humans will develop, but history will not simply repeat itself. In the post-crisis era, there will be some major new trends in the global economy and China economy. Only based on these megatrends can we better grasp the development environment and trend of China's economy. In the post-crisis era, the world economic growth mode and development pattern will undergo profound adjustment, China's development will face new major opportunities, and the global economic growth pattern will undergo profound changes. Developed countries are changing the economic growth mode of low savings and high consumption, and emerging economies will gradually increase consumption and reduce savings. The world economic growth pattern of "American consumption, made in China and Russian resources provided in the Middle East" will undergo profound changes, the global structural adjustment is in the ascendant, and the international industrial division of labor, trade mode and capital flow will also undergo major changes. In the next few years, the world economy will maintain low growth. The pattern of world economic development will continue to be adjusted. The financial crisis has shaken the economic hegemony of the United States and accelerated the process of global economic multipolarization. In particular, the BRIC countries of China, Indian, Russian and Pakistani have become an important force for the world economy to resume growth. China's contribution to world economic growth will be in the first place for a long time. G20 has replaced G7 as the main place for international economic coordination, which indicates that the global governance model is also undergoing profound changes, and the status of emerging economies will be further enhanced. The global financial system is facing major changes. The financial crisis has weakened the core position of the US dollar in the international monetary system, while the position of the Euro has risen, which will accelerate the diversification of the international monetary system. In particular, the China government has accelerated the pilot process of RMB bilateral swap and cross-border trade, and the international status of RMB will be accelerated. Countries around the world have also reached a consensus on strengthening global financial supervision and reforming international financial institutions, which will certainly have a major impact on the global financial system. A new round of industrial technology revolution is gaining momentum. The financial crisis and the response to climate change have spawned a new technological revolution represented by low-carbon economy and "Internet of Things". Green economy and smart earth are expected to become new growth points of the global economy. Developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan have promoted emerging industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, Internet of Things, and the next generation Internet to national strategic heights and strongly supported their development. A new round of global industrial upgrading, adjustment and transfer is unstoppable. The gap between China and developed countries in emerging industries is expected to narrow for the first time. Generally speaking, the world economic environment in the post-crisis era is generally beneficial to China. The century-old crisis has also created a once-in-a-century strategic opportunity for China's development, and China's economic development will usher in a healthier, more stable and more dynamic "golden decade". "Promoting development through transformation" is becoming the main line of China's economic development. Although we are faced with rare opportunities for development, external factors depend on internal factors. The key to China's accelerated development lies in itself. For a long time to come, China will be in the stage of accelerated industrialization and urbanization, with good supply conditions of factors and huge potential of domestic demand, and can still maintain the growth rate of 8%-9%. However, China's economic structure is unreasonable, and the income structure, demand structure and industrial structure are unbalanced; The unscientific mode of economic development and excessive dependence on external demand, investment, resources and factor input directly restrict the sustainable development of the economy. Therefore, the core issue of China's accelerated development is not the speed of economic growth, but the adjustment of economic structure and the change of development mode. The report of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made systematic arrangements for changing the development mode. In 2009, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward that "accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic development should be regarded as an important goal and strategic measure to thoroughly implement Scientific Outlook on Development, so as to organically unify maintaining growth and promoting transformation, promote transformation in development and seek development in transformation". It can be seen that "promoting development through transformation" is replacing "promoting development through growth" and becoming the main line of China's economic development. "Stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting transformation" is not only the keynote of 20 10 macroeconomic policy, but also the basic direction of macroeconomic policy in the coming period. The orientation of 20 10 macro policy is mainly in the following aspects. We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy. The scale of fiscal expenditure will continue to grow, but the expenditure structure will be further optimized. The key point is to increase support for people's livelihood and social undertakings, increase support for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, science and technology, education, health, culture, social security, energy conservation and environmental protection, small and medium-sized enterprises, household consumption and underdeveloped areas, and support reforms in key areas. Investment funds will maintain moderate growth, but the key point is to complete projects under construction, and new projects will be strictly controlled. It can be predicted that investment in affordable housing, infrastructure construction in small and medium-sized cities, new energy, energy-saving automobiles, medicine, bioengineering and other strategic emerging industries will all increase substantially. We will continue to implement the structural tax reduction policy, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, service enterprises, high-tech enterprises and wage earners. We will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and make appropriate fine-tuning according to the new situation. The scale of money and credit will be lower than that in 2009, and the rhythm of money and credit will be more stable. The investment structure will undergo great changes, with emphasis on increasing support for weak economic and social links, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", employment, strategic emerging industries, industrial revitalization and industrial transfer, effectively alleviating the financing difficulties of small enterprises, ensuring the loan demand for key construction projects, and strictly controlling loans to industries with high energy consumption and high emissions and industries with overcapacity. Speculative housing credit policy will be significantly tightened. In terms of control measures, the monetary authorities may give priority to conventional quantitative tools such as controlling credit scale and open market operations, followed by adjusting the deposit reserve ratio; If inflationary pressure or expectations are strong, we will consider adjusting interest rates. Interest rate adjustment will also refer to the trend of US monetary policy. With the expectation of RMB appreciation rising rapidly, the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates earlier than the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the central bank and regulatory authorities will also strengthen the regulation of the pace of credit supply to prevent abnormal fluctuations between quarters and at the end of the month. Intensify economic restructuring and improve the quality and efficiency of economic development. Further expand the consumer demand of residents and enhance the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth; Take actively and steadily promoting urbanization as an important starting point for expanding domestic demand and adjusting economic structure; Develop strategic emerging industries and promote industrial restructuring; Promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and eliminate backward production capacity. Further consolidate the development foundation of farmers in agriculture and rural areas, improve the policy of strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers, and consolidate the good situation of developing agriculture and rural areas. Promote the equalization of basic public services, guide the orderly transfer of industries, and promote coordinated regional development. Relevant state departments will issue relevant policies to increase support in income distribution, affordable housing construction, strategic emerging industries and urbanization. Deepen economic restructuring and persist in opening wider to the outside world. The reform of fiscal and taxation system, income distribution system, price formation mechanism of production factors and evaluation mechanism of cadres' political achievements is expected to make substantial progress. In the pilot project of RMB settlement of cross-border trade, the reform of monopoly industry system will continue to deepen. We will continue to implement the national policy of stabilizing external demand, properly deal with international trade frictions, speed up the construction of free trade zones, support enterprises to explore emerging markets, support the export of independent intellectual property rights and brand products, and support the export of service trade. Supporting enterprises to invest abroad and promoting the export of goods and services through investment will become a new bright spot in China's opening up. Focus on safeguarding and improving people's livelihood and fully safeguard social stability. Adhere to a more active employment policy and strive to expand employment; Further improve the social security system and raise the level of social security; Give priority to the development of education and improve the conditions for running schools; Vigorously develop cultural undertakings and cultural industries to meet the growing cultural needs of the people. Increase public expenditure and strengthen public services. As discretionary policy means, fiscal policy and monetary policy will change moderately with the change of economic situation, but policies such as structural adjustment, deepening reform and safeguarding people's livelihood will only be strengthened, not weakened. Generally speaking, the economic development situation of China in 20 10 will be better than that in 2009. It is preliminarily estimated that the annual economic growth rate may reach about 8.5%-9%, and the annual consumer price will increase by about 3%. China's economy will step into the new "golden decade" at a more steady pace. In the post-crisis era, China's economy will accelerate its transformation at a moderate growth rate. From the experience and lessons at home and abroad, "growth" and "transformation" are a pair of contradictions. High growth often means extensive economic development mode; To change the mode of economic development, we must properly control the speed of economic growth. China government regards the transformation of economic development mode as its primary goal and central task, which means that China's economy will maintain moderate growth. Theoretically, the potential economic growth rate of building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society in China is around 9%. China's economy will maintain a moderate growth of about 8.5-9% in 20 10, and the growth rate after 20 10 should not be too fast. I am afraid that the period of maintaining the growth rate of 10% or more for many years like 2003-2007 will not happen again. This is the basic feature of China's economic growth in the post-crisis era. Accompanying this basic feature are the following features. The transformation of economic development mode and structural adjustment will be greatly accelerated. The adjustment idea of "promoting the adjustment of demand structure through the adjustment of income structure, and then promoting the adjustment of industrial structure" will be more clear. Domestic demand, especially consumer demand, will enter a faster growth track, emerging industries, green economy and low-carbon economy will accelerate development, and energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental governance will be greatly strengthened. The urbanization process will be further accelerated. The Central Economic Work Conference regards promoting urbanization as an important means of economic restructuring, which indicates that the process of urbanization in China will be accelerated and the quality will be improved. Urban agglomeration will become the main mode of urbanization development in China, especially the central urban agglomeration such as Wanjiang City Belt will become a new development hotspot. The development of strategic emerging industries will be highly valued. The state will focus on supporting technological research and development and industrialization of new energy, new materials, biomedicine, third-generation mobile communication, Internet of Things and other industries, accelerate the development of low-carbon economy, and strive to occupy the commanding heights of international industrial competition in the post-crisis era. The regional economic layout will be further adjusted. In 2009, the State Council approved nine regional economic development plans to be upgraded to national strategies, and recently approved the implementation of "Wanjiang City Belt Undertaking Industrial Transfer Demonstration Zone Planning", and the development of the central and western regions received more attention. The advantages of low cost and proximity to the market in the central region are more prominent, while the disadvantages of being far away from ports and high logistics costs tend to weaken, and the manufacturing, marketing and other value chain links of coastal enterprises will accelerate the transfer to the central region. The development speed of the central region will be further accelerated. If the accelerated development of China is a major trend of global economy in the post-crisis era, then the basic connotation of China's development will be the accelerated transformation of economic development mode and moderate and steady economic growth, and the accelerated rise of the central region will become a new bright spot of China's development.