The evaluation of a thing often involves multiple factors or indicators. The specific process is to regard the evaluation target as a fuzzy set composed of many factors (called factor set X), and then set the evaluation grades that these factors can choose to form an evaluation fuzzy set (called evaluation set Y), and respectively calculate the degree of attribution of each single factor to each evaluation grade (called fuzzy matrix). Then, according to the weight distribution of each factor in the evaluation target, the quantitative solution of the evaluation is obtained by calculation (called fuzzy matrix synthesis). The above process is fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
General evaluation problems often involve many factors, especially in economic work, there is a general fuzzy relationship between the factors of the object. Therefore, when people grasp the object in their thinking, they should always fully consider various factors and their influence on the category and behavior of things themselves, and make a comprehensive evaluation in the overall balance, which is the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Taking commercial housing as an example, whether a house is liked by customers often involves many factors, such as location, style, floor, price and comfort. How to evaluate the housing quality is a problem of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The following takes a commercial house as an example to illustrate the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.
Let X= housing lot (x 1), style structure (x2), price (x3), Y= welcome (y 1), welcome (y2), unwelcome (y3), unwelcome (y4) and do single factor evaluation first. If we only consider the housing lots and ask some professionals to comment, 50% people think it is very welcome, 40% people think it is relatively welcome, and 10% people think it is not very welcome, then the evaluation of the housing lots is: (0.5, 0.4, 0. 1.0).
It is also assumed that for the style structure, the evaluation is: (0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0. 1).
The evaluation of the price is: (0,0.1,0.3, 0.6)
This constitutes a fuzzy matrix of single factor evaluation, which is expressed by R.
Because of different occupations, genders, ages, hobbies and economic conditions, different customers give different weights to the three factors of commercial housing, and a weight coefficient must be added for comprehensive evaluation. If there is a class of customers who want to buy commercial housing, the main requirements are that the housing lot is good, but the style and structure are poor, and the price is relatively cheap. There are:
A = ( 0.5，0.2，0.3)
These are the three weight distributions of clothing evaluation of this kind of customers, namely, the weight of housing lots is 0.5, the weight of style structure is 0.2, and the weight of price is 0.3. According to the comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation results of this kind of customers on commercial housing are as follows:
B = AR (0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3) (note: AR represents the synthesis operation of two fuzzy sets, and the specific algorithm is omitted).
Normalization, that is, dividing each term by 1.5, gives: (0.33, 0.27, 0.20, 0.20).
This result shows that 33% people think this commercial house is very popular, 27% people think it is more popular, 20% people think it is not very popular, and 20% people think it is very unpopular. In other words, on the whole, more than half of the people are very welcome or relatively welcome to the design of this commercial house, so the design of this commercial house is relatively successful.
From the above examples, it can be explained that the comprehensive evaluation of human cognition is a dialectical movement process of fuzzy analysis of a single factor and fuzzy synthesis of all factors, which embodies the interdependence and mutual transformation of fuzzy analysis and fuzzy synthesis, and also reflects the three-dimensional thinking investigation of things from multiple angles, multiple sides, multiple factors, multiple values and multiple scales. Therefore, studying the theory, method and application of fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis is not only of great theoretical significance to the development of management science, technical and economic theory and application, but also of great practical significance to solving many complicated practical decision-making problems.
In the past 10 years, the rapid economic growth of China and India is changing the pattern of the world economy, which has attracted great attention from all countries in the world. China and India, two ancient civilizations, have achieved economic growth again after a long period of stagnation, which proves the role of marketization in economic development, provides impetus for the growth of the world economy, and is conducive to the elimination of poverty and population control in the world, thus having various world significance.
In this case, the economic growth models of China and India have been widely concerned. Similar principles and many different external factors have changed the economic development models of the two countries and brought different markets and futures to the two countries.
Keywords: China's economic growth model, India's economic growth model, economic growth rate When we look at the economic map of Asia in recent years, the economic growth of China and India is undoubtedly one of the bright colors. China and India are both neighbors and populous countries in the world. There are many similarities between the national conditions of the two countries, and there are also many similarities and differences in economic growth modes.
In the past 10 years, China and India have experienced rapid economic growth, and now they are the two countries with the fastest economic growth in the world. Such rapid growth is changing the pattern of the world economy, which has attracted great attention from all countries in the world, thus causing China and Indian fever.
If the rise of India is due to natural and liberal reform policies, then China's economic growth has benefited from the government's thoughtful results.
I. World Significance of the Rise of China and India Asia, where China and India are located, was once a very rich place. Until the19th century, China was stronger than any other country in Europe or Asia. 1820, China's GDP is nearly 30% higher than the sum of western Europe and its derivative countries. Before the colonial expansion of western countries, India was the only exporter of industrial products among western colonial countries. Even after Britain colonized India, India's industrial scale was still larger than that of any other European colony. However, with the colonization of India and the infiltration of the West into China, the economy of China and India, which was already at a standstill, has undergone a historic reversal. In the following 100 year, China and India, as well as Asia where these two big countries are located, quickly became the poorest regions in the world, and most of the poor people happened to be concentrated in China and India, two countries with extremely large populations. The revival of Asia began in the 1950s, but it was not China and India that took the first step in Asian economic revival, but Japan. This is because China and India, after striving for national independence and liberation, chose the "planned economic system" which proved to be inefficient, and as a result, they failed to achieve effective economic growth, thus failing to effectively solve the poverty problem accumulated for centuries. However, when Japan successfully caught up with Europe in the 1970s, and the subsequent economic take-off of the "four little dragons" in East Asia, it gave China a huge impact. After careful consideration, China resolutely embarked on the road of transition to a market economy after 1979, thus creating the economic miracle of China that shocked the world. Facing China's economic miracle, India finally began to transform into a market economy at 1992. As a result, in the 10 years after the transition, there has also been unprecedented economic growth in Indian history. The rise of China and India provides new hope for solving the problem of world poverty. Only economic growth can effectively reduce and eliminate poverty, that is, creating wealth is the key factor to solve the poverty problem, while distribution can only solve the problem of fairness at most, but it will never solve the poverty problem. Since the reform and opening up from 65438 to 0979, China has lifted about 400 million poor people out of poverty. At the beginning of India's reform, poor people accounted for 36% of the country's total population. Only eight years after the reform, the proportion of poor people in the total population of China has dropped by 8 percentage points, with an average annual decrease of 1 percentage point. The rise of China and India will help to reduce and eliminate world poverty and bring new growth impetus to the world economy. Countries with "young populations" can bring huge dividends to the world; They have strong low-cost manufacturing capabilities, which can enable the world to achieve rapid economic growth without inflation; In the long run, they will create an unprecedented huge emerging market for the world.
Second, China and India have similar but different development models: 1, China model: When China's economy took off at lightning speed in the 1980s and became a global economic power, the world gradually changed from initial distrust of China to sincere admiration. China's GDP is mainly driven by manufacturing. After reaching 65,438+065,438+0% in 2006, the growth rate increased to 65,438+02% in 2007. China relies on huge domestic reserve funds to vigorously carry out infrastructure construction, and at the same time attracts a large number of foreign capital to set up factories in China and introduce the required foreign expertise. China's economic development model for nearly 30 years after the reform and opening up is an economic model designed and arranged on the basis of denying the disadvantages of planned economy, taking market economy as the value orientation and relying on market regulation to spontaneously optimize resource allocation. It is an economic model with market economy as its value orientation, decentralization as its administrative operation, starting with rural land distribution and privatization of public economy, so that some people can get rich first. Generally speaking, this is a market economy model, because it has the universal superiority of the market economy system, thus bringing vitality to China's economy. 2. Indian model: I remember my family went to India for business, and I was deeply impressed by the "backwardness" there when I came back. Simple infrastructure, traffic jams, streets full of low-grade domestic cars, slums in big cities, beggars everywhere, Dobihart open-air laundry as a scene of Mumbai ... all give people a strong impression of "backcountry", which is dwarfed by the booming municipal construction in coastal cities of China. However, people often fail to see the development potential of India and the sustainability of its growth model. IT companies are everywhere, and the rapidly developing service industry ... 1980. From 2002, India's economic growth rate remained at 6%, and from 2002 to 2006, the growth rate rose steadily to 7.5%. The economic growth rate after 2006 exceeded 8%. In the past 20 years, the size of the middle class has quadrupled to 250 million. Indian economy started about 10 years later than China, and its rise is remarkable not because it is a new phenomenon, but because its development model is very special. Its rise mainly depends on the regional transfer of jobs in the west. At the same time, India has rapidly created a number of world-class knowledge-intensive enterprises and high-tech-led service industries, including software industry, IT industry and pharmaceutical industry. These industries rarely receive government funding in the process of development, but they have effectively promoted economic development. India's strategy is different from other Asian countries. Instead of exporting labor-intensive and low-priced industrial products, it relies more on domestic demand to stimulate consumption. They emphasize consumption rather than investment, service rather than manufacturing, high-tech industries rather than low-tech industries, and bottom-up market-led economic operation. This means that the Indian economy can largely avoid the impact of global economic weakness, thus showing strong resilience. The consumption-oriented development model is conducive to the general improvement of people's lives, and the gap between the rich and the poor in India is smaller than that in other developing countries. Moreover, 30% to 40% of the gross national product comes from the growth of productivity, not the increase of capital or labor. 3. China's economic growth rate and Indian economic growth rate (Figure) 4. Comparison of economic growth models between China and India: If there is one country in the world that can be compared with China, it is India, because many endowments of the two countries are similar. Due to the different institutional environment and initial conditions, the development models of China and India are also different, which are manifested in the differences in marketization path, opening mode and growth path. China and India have different paths of marketization. There are great differences between China and India because of their different national conditions. Before the reform and opening up, China implemented a planned economy with public ownership as the basic system, while before the reform and opening up, India implemented a planned economy with private ownership as the basic system. This fundamental difference in system leads to the need for these two countries to choose different reform paths when transforming into market economy. For China, to complete the transformation from planned economy to market economy, the first task is to reform ownership. For India, the road to marketization is to relax government control and vigorously promote economic liberalization and trade liberalization. However, no matter how different the methods adopted by China and India in the process of marketization are, the reforms of China and India are very similar, that is, both countries have carefully adopted a gradual reform method, thus avoiding the social turmoil in the transformation process of the former Soviet Union and the planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as the economic recession caused by social turmoil. China and India have different opening models, and there are considerable differences between the two countries. As far as China is concerned, the main ways of opening to the outside world are export-oriented and introducing foreign capital, while Indian opening to the outside world adopts foreign investment and free trade. China and India have different economic growth paths. China develops step by step from agriculture to manufacturing and then to service industry, while India adopts the latter economic growth path and pays more attention to the development of service industry.
Three. The Future and Challenges of Economic Growth in China and India In order to achieve sustainable economic development, both China and India are facing challenges. The common problem between the two countries is to persist in eliminating poverty by creating wealth rather than egalitarianism. China also needs to deepen the property rights reform focusing on farmers' land ownership, state-owned enterprise ownership and private property ownership, while India needs to reform its caste system that restricts social mobility, suppresses economic vitality and weakens human capital investment. Compared with China, India's advantages in economic growth are: much higher openness than China, better relations with major countries in the world, less external pressure, and effective elite education. The overall quality of Indian social elites is much higher than that of China. India's disadvantages are: increasingly prominent religious contradictions, social unrest and frequent terrorist incidents, which have dealt a great blow to foreign investment. Due to the excessive opening of the market, it has caused a great impact on its national industries. The economic lifeline of some areas is in the hands of foreign capitalists, and some infrastructure construction is poor, which seriously restricts India's economic development. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said: "As long as the policy suits the right medicine, economic achievements will continue, thus improving the living standards of Asian people, which means that the quality of life of nearly half of the world's population has been improved." Singh also pointed out that the biggest challenge facing the global economy at present is still how to recover. Even if Asian countries are not dragged down by bad securities, countries in this region rely on global trade to support their economies, and the economy is deteriorating, and the demand is greatly reduced, which affects export trade. "For countries such as China, India and Indonesia, where domestic demand is dominant, the external economic environment is sluggish, which will not have a great impact on them, but it will have a great impact on export-dependent economies." However, Singh added: "Now, the Asia-Pacific economy is gradually improving. By the end of last year, the exports of most Asian countries had recovered to the level before the economic crisis, including those most affected. " According to the growth rate in the first quarter of 20 10, the economic development trend of China and India will accelerate in the short term.
How many journals can publish economic papers in China? Hundreds, even thousands? Anyway, it is a dime a dozen. China Academy of Social Sciences, local Academy of Social Sciences, many universities' schools of economics, some state organs, financial institutions and so on all have their own publications, not counting newspapers that also publish theoretical articles. It should be said that in the last 20 years, China's economics and economics journals have made great progress, but we should also see that there are still many problems:
(1) There are too many comprehensive journals and too few professional journals. In foreign countries, except for a few comprehensive economic journals, there are mainly various professional journals with international reputation, such as Finance magazine and Comparative Economics magazine. There is no clear professional division of labor in domestic economic journals, and the contents overlap, so it is difficult for readers to understand the latest progress in a certain field.
(2) periodical evaluation lacks scientific standards. At present, the popular classification method of journals is based on the level of the journal sponsors or the evaluation of the relevant administrative units of the state, which makes the evaluation of academic journals lack of scientific standards recognized by the academic community.
There are many academic journals with uneven quality, which is both a good thing and a bad thing for researchers and students to publish papers. It's a good thing because, from the current situation, it's not difficult for a smart graduate student to pick a few publications and publish dozens of papers at will. This is a bad thing, because it is too easy to publish a paper, which can easily ruin the students who just started and make them feel that scientific research is such a common thing. Therefore, my suggestion is that young students must set a goal for themselves when submitting papers, that is, they must not be satisfied with the number of papers published in mediocre magazines, and must be on the "elegant hall" of good economic journals.
So, what is a good economics journal? Papers in academic journals are often full of difficult terms, complicated reasoning and complicated data, which are difficult for ordinary readers to understand, and therefore make laymen feel like "climbing the mountain" and "Chun Xue". In fact, academic journals and mass media have different functions. Mass media is geared to the public. Readers only need to have a secondary education level and a basic understanding, and do not need special training in a certain subject. Authors and readers of academic journals are basically confined to a narrow circle, that is, people who have been trained in a certain subject and are still engaged in research and teaching of that subject. Articles in mass media are for influencing readers, while papers in academic journals are for peer communication. Therefore, if the quality of articles is measured by the amount of information conveyed or the depth of ideas, the quality of articles in academic journals is not necessarily higher than that in mass media. For example, The Economist and Businessweek both received high honors from professional economists. Many first-class economists admit that they often find inspiration from these magazines. In the field of international relations, Diplomatic magazine is no less than any of the best academic journals, but these magazines cannot be called academic journals. Publishing articles in The Economist or Diplomacy can improve the author's popularity, but it is not helpful for him to evaluate his professional titles in universities. The standard for measuring academic journals is not content, but form.
The journals that publish economic papers mainly include (in no particular order) Managing the World, Technology and Economic Research of Quantitative Economy, Regional Research and Development Reform, Economic Theory and Management, Development Research, Shanghai Economic Research, Macroeconomic Research, Resources and Environment in the Yangtze River Basin, Reference Economic Research, Productivity Research and Urban Problems. Industry (renamed resources and industry), China economic problems, southern economy, modern city research, consumption economy, ecological economy, economic mathematics, China circular economy, open herald, special zone economy, modern economic discussion, macroeconomic management, operation and management, reform and strategy, technical economy and management research. [2]
Economics thesis is a summary of the research results in the field of economics and the result of in-depth analysis of social and economic phenomena.
First, the structural characteristics of the topic
1. Topic selection
The topic should be able to explain the practical activities related to many people's interests, such as studying China's agricultural problems with incentive theory. Explaining too narrow a topic is of little significance, but it can be used as an essay, such as studying the occupation of Tsinghua Peking University.
2. Content
Express your views with simple and profound economic models and prove your views with analysis.
The quality of the content mainly depends on: (1) analyzing problems with normative economic methods commonly used by peers; (2) The language clearly and accurately expresses the meaning to be expressed; (3) The explanatory ability of the model to reality.
3. Writing form
Only when the form is standardized can the content be standardized. If there must be a theoretical review, it is necessary to know the current research progress in this field. If there must be model assumptions, meaningful assumptions must be designed. There must be a standardized empirical test. You can't just list some data. You must find evidence that can really support your argument.
Second, the writing way of thinking
Everything is analyzed from the perspective of maximizing interests, and the income function and constraints of the real subject are constructed by maximizing interpretation.
Third, theoretical model analysis.
1. Basic theory, including theoretical overview and practical significance.
Such as delving into a particular field.
2. Model, including hypothesis, defining function, solving equilibrium solution and popularizing the model.
For example: advanced microeconomics, advanced macroeconomics, game theory.
3. Empirical analysis, such as econometrics. [3]