I. Problems and research methods.

The results of the fifth population census show that xx% of the floating population is concentrated in the age group of 15-49, which shows that the population of childbearing age, especially the young population of childbearing age, constitutes the main part of the floating population in China's cities. The floating population in China is very different from the past in group characteristics, urban living environment and institutional environment, and can be called "a new generation of urban and rural floating population". The floating population in urban and rural areas with such a large scale of young people of childbearing age will have a great impact on the fertility rate and growth rate of our population. Therefore, the fertility will and characteristics of the new generation of urban and rural floating population should be our focus.

In this context, we conducted a questionnaire survey and semi-structured case interviews on the new generation of migrant workers. In xx month, 20xx, we conducted a sampling questionnaire survey on fertility willingness of non-local agricultural registered population aged xx-XX who lived and stayed for more than half a year. There are XX valid samples, and the recovery rate is xx%, of which xx% are men and xx% are women. The basic conclusions of the questionnaire survey are as follows:

First, the average fertility will xx. Xx% people want to have one child, xx% people want to have two children, xx% people want to have xx or more children, and about xx% people don't want to have children.

Second, in view of the sexual desire to have children, most floating population has no gender preference for children, xx% people think that they should "let nature take its course" and xx% people want to have both children. Relatively speaking, among the male floating population, boys prefer more than girls; Among the female floating population, girls like it better than boys.

Third, cost constraint, for the sake of children's growth and emotional needs, has become the most important factor leading the fertility will of the new generation of floating population. The above conclusions show that the fertility concept of the new generation of urban and rural floating population presents a rational trend, and a new fertility concept has been formed.

Through the data of the questionnaire, we have a more objective judgment on the fertility will of the new generation floating population in one town and one city. However, due to people's subjective cognition and self-judgment, it is not enough to deeply understand people's real thoughts on fertility and family planning. Therefore, during the period from xx to xx, we conducted semi-structured in-depth case interviews with xx non-local agricultural registered population 18-3 1 year-old who lived in xx and Suzhou for more than half a year, including male xx and female xx. Some are unmarried and some are married.

The purpose of this study is to deeply understand the current situation, main characteristics and expectations of the new generation floating population in one town and one city in China on the number and gender of their children, grasp the degree and way of their fertility will change, and deeply explore the main factors affecting their fertility will and its changes, especially the influence of urban social support system and institutional arrangements on the actual fertility behavior of the floating population. At the same time, this study also tries to verify the degree of realization of the trend of replacing the number of children with the quality of children by adjusting the demand and satisfaction of floating population for their children's human capital investment, and whether the institutional supply and social environment can support the realization of the new concept and willingness of floating population to have children.

Second, the current situation of fertility willingness of the new generation of urban and rural floating population.

Floating population generally want to have several children. Do they still adhere to the provisions of the traditional fertility culture and show obvious preference for sons, or have they changed? What influence does the current urban life and social environment have on their fertility will? What is the basis for the realization of the floating population's fertility will? Is there a gap between fertility willingness and actual fertility behavior? This paper will judge and analyze the fertility will of the new generation of migrant workers from four aspects: fertility quantity will, fertility gender will, the influence of migrant workers on fertility will and the realization basis of fertility will.

(-) Want to have many children

Through interviews, we found that most respondents' choice of the number of children depends on their current economic situation. No matter whether there are restrictions on the national family planning policy or not, when asked about the expectation of the number of children, most people will take economic burden and pressure as the primary consideration. Therefore, many interviewees said that under the current living environment, they hope to have only one child. With the social transformation, economic development and the change of living environment, the living pressure of floating population has greatly increased, including the cost of raising children (economic cost, psychological cost and opportunity cost) and the cost of living in cities (housing, food, daily necessities, education, etc.). ) are the two most prominent aspects. Therefore, under the constraint of low income, many interviewees believe that if only one child is born, educational resources, material resources and time resources can be concentrated on one child, which is not only beneficial to the growth, education and future development of the child, but also reduces their own economic pressure and burden. We can clearly feel this cognitive tendency from the following interviews.

1, just one, just one, the economic burden is too heavy. (Respondent: SMUC 1, male, 2 1 year old, unmarried)

Just want one child. Nowadays, the economic conditions and social reality make it difficult to raise and educate a child.

2, the economic expenditure is very large, and the investment in education is very large. If there are two, it will be more troublesome. (Interviewee: SMMI, male, 24 years old, married and childless)

Although asked whether the number of children will change if the family planning policy is liberalized, some respondents hope to increase it to two, but economic pressure is still their primary concern, so in the actual process of fertility behavior, they will still make fertility decisions according to their own economic situation:

3, regardless of family planning, don't want it, the burden is too great, no energy and no money. (Interviewee: TMMCC 1, male, 26 years old, married, with one son)

If I am rich, I will have two children; If I am poor, I will only have one child. (Interviewee: SFMCO5, female, 29 years old, married with one daughter)

Some respondents believe that energy input is also an important factor in determining the number of children, especially female respondents believe that raising children requires a lot of energy input, which leads them to have no time to take care of more children.

5, one is enough, too tired to care. Too many children, too busy. If you don't take good care of them, it will also affect your work. (Interviewee: SFMCI5, female, 27 years old, married and pregnant)

There are also a few respondents who will clearly choose career priority when faced with the choice of having children or career development opportunities. This shows that the floating population living in cities is influenced by urban social conditions and culture, and gradually presents the characteristics of urban residents. Not only does the opportunity cost of childbearing increase with the change of economic conditions, but they also pay more attention to their own subjectivity and their own space and development.

6. If I have the opportunity to develop, I will develop first and not have children. For example, if there is an opportunity in front of me, I will definitely develop and not choose children (interviewee: TMUC4, male, 19 years old, unmarried).

Based on the above respondents' expectations for the number of children, we find that the quality of children has become the primary choice for the floating population under the constraints of the increasing cost of raising children and the cost of living in cities. This shows that the fertility will of urban floating population has shown a trend of replacing the number of children with the quality of children, and the family planning policy is no longer the main constraint to determine the fertility decision of floating population. At the same time, the increase of time cost and opportunity cost and the need of self-development have also become important factors for many floating population to consider in their fertility decision-making, which reflects that under the influence of urban social environment, floating population pays more attention to self-development and has higher expectations for quality of life than before.

(2) Sexual desire to have children.

The floating population's gender expectations for their children are diversified. The interview results show that there is no gender preference, boy preference, girl preference or all children preference. However, the results of interviews and surveys on gender preference show that the preference for girls among the floating population has greatly increased, which is obviously different from the general preference for boys in the traditional rural fertility culture.

1, no gender preference.

A few interviewees said that they have no special preference for gender, and there is no difference in the value evaluation of girls and boys.

Now in the countryside, some boys are unfilial and many girls are filial. In fact, if a boy is unfilial, he can't keep up with women. It doesn't matter whether I want a boy or a girl. (Respondent: SMUI 1, male, 2 1 year old, unmarried)

2. The children are all intact.

Many interviewees want to have both children, and get benefits (economic benefits and psychological benefits) from both boys and girls to meet the different needs of their families and themselves, which is in line with the psychological characteristics that China people generally want to have the best of both worlds.

Two at most, one male and one female is the best, and both children can have them. (Interviewee: TMMS, male, 25 years old, married and childless)

3. Boys' preference.

Some interviewees believe that the traditional concept of son preference in rural areas still has a deep-rooted influence on themselves. Although they live in urban communities, this gender preference still exists among the floating population working in cities because of their inextricably linked with rural communities. But on the whole, the influence scope and degree of boys' preference concept decreased obviously.

This is the case in the countryside. If you are all girls, others will look down on you. (Interviewee: TMUS 1, male, 23 years old, unmarried)

I like boys. When a girl grows up, she gets married and takes care of her parents-in-law. There's no hope. (Interviewee: TMMC, male, 24 years old, married and childless)

4. Girls' preference.

Many interviewees expressed their willingness to have girls, mainly based on the following two starting points: First, compared with boys, the economic cost of raising girls is lower, for example, it is more worry-free to raise girls without having to prepare a house for them; Secondly, in some aspects, girls earn more than boys, such as being more filial and considerate, and finding jobs more easily for girls. Among the respondents who are unmarried, married and childless, and married and fertile, some people have obvious preference for girls.

I want a girl. A girl doesn't have to buy her a house. If I want to have a boy, I have to prepare a house for him. (Interviewee: SFU02, female, 19 years old, unmarried)

Want a girl. The girl is cute, and the girl is a little worried. The boy is too naughty. (Interviewee: SFUI3, female, 25 years old, unmarried)

The interview results show that there is no explicit determinant of fertility gender preference compared with the fact that the number of births is obviously affected by economic conditions. In other words, the factors that affect the reproductive gender cognitive orientation and behavioral outcome of floating population are very complex and multidimensional. On the one hand, the traditional preference for boys over girls, on the other hand, with the social transformation, the general promotion of girls' value, especially the obvious increase of ways to realize girls' value in urban society, and other factors, * * * act on the cognitive and decision-making process of floating population, making it show complex and diverse characteristics in reproductive sex selection. In short, although the multiple influences of various factors lead to the diversification of gender preference combination, we found in the interview that the fertility will of urban floating population showed a more rational side, and their value judgments (capital gains and psychological gains) on girls became more objective and rational.

(3) The influence of working experience on fertility will.

The interview results show that although the floating population still retains the traditional reproductive cultural characteristics, compared with those rural residents who have not gone to work in cities, we find that the experience of going out to work has had a substantial impact on the floating population's reproductive concept and behavior. Modern fertility culture is gradually changing the cognitive and reproductive behavior patterns of floating population. They no longer simply pursue the number of children, they just want to have boys. Instead, they tend to combine their economic income and development more rationally, objectively compare boys and girls in human capital investment, value realization and realization methods, and make fertility decisions.

My hometown still pays more attention to boys. I feel that my thoughts have changed, and my work experience has changed some concepts. If you hadn't looked outside, you would have listened to the arrangement at home and gave birth to a boy. But when you come out and take a closer look, you will change some ideas. (Respondent: SMUC 1, male, 2 1 year old, unmarried)

At the same time, compared with rural communities, the contact between people in urban communities is looser, the personal living space is relatively expanded, and the right to privacy can be respected to a certain extent. These factors * * * isomorphism has become the realistic basis for alleviating the fertility pressure of floating population (such as families with boys). It is precisely because of the characteristics of urban community living environment that floating population can pay more attention to the economic situation rather than the constraints of fertility culture when making fertility decisions.

It must be better to have a boy in my hometown. Having a boy there will make me feel better. Having a girl seems like a joke, so it doesn't matter if I live here in the city. (Interviewee: SFMCO8, female, 29 years old, married with one son)

In a word, urban life has affected the fertility will of floating population to some extent. The process of urban integration not only improves their material living standards, but also changes their traditional fertility culture, creating a good supporting environment for the change of fertility will.

(4) The realistic basis for the realization of fertility wish.

Fertility decision-making is influenced by a series of direct factors (fertility cost, children's education cost, parents' opportunity cost, etc.). ) and indirect factors (urban living expenses include housing and medical care, etc. Therefore, if the floating population's urban social integration is not high, the lack of system supply or the absence of government role will directly affect these factors, making it difficult for the floating population to realize their quality-oriented fertility wishes. This paper analyzes the realistic basis of the floating population's fertility will from the following three aspects.

1. Rural communities still have a great influence on the floating population.

Although the floating population lives in the city, it is still inextricably linked with the rural communities where they moved out, and the pressure of rural traditional fertility culture on the floating population still exists. We find that many disciplines are under the dual influence of two different fertility cultures, urban society and rural society. Sometimes, they have to choose between two cultures. The following interview records can accurately reflect this dilemma.

I don't really want boys myself. But anyway, I want boys 60% or 70%, mainly considering my husband's family, and I want to carry on the family line ... mainly because of the pressure of the elderly. (Interviewee: SFMCO8, female, 29 years old, married with one son)

Through the above interviews, we can infer that due to the influence of external factors such as elders and various contacts with rural communities, the unmarried and married childless floating population with modern fertility concepts may have great differences in their current fertility wishes and actual fertility decisions and behaviors in the future.

2. It is difficult to meet children's human capital investment needs.

For children's growth and education, most respondents hope that their children can stay in the city for education and hope that their children can develop in the city in the future. It has become the common sense of floating population that the education system, environment, resources and opportunities in cities are far superior to those in rural areas.

Bringing children here and raising them in the city, I have more hope for their future. (Interviewee: SMMCS 1' Male, married, pregnant)

In addition to considering the educational environment and system, many interviewees realized that if children were left at home, there would be many disadvantages in intergenerational education and some psychological problems for children. This shows that the new generation of floating population not only pays attention to children's learning, but also gradually realizes that children should use appropriate educational methods in the process of education and growth, and begin to pay attention to children's mental health and establish a harmonious parent-child relationship. This shows that the floating population has some advanced educational ideas and attaches importance to the all-round development of children's body and mind.

It's not good for old people to take care of children. Our parents, their cultural level is lower than ours. If they take care of children, sometimes they are not so civilized. (Interviewee: SMMCI 1, male, 27 years old, married with one son)

Although most interviewees want their children to go to school in cities for education, they generally think that the education cost of urban children is very high, which is far beyond their affordability. At the same time, being busy with work and having no time to take care of children is another important factor for floating population to leave their children in cities.

It costs a lot of money for children to study for a month. Sometimes it is useful to buy clothes for dinner, and everything else adds up. 800- 1000 a month (interviewee: SFMO 1, female. 30 years old, married, with one son)

In short, although the floating population has a strong demand for children's human capital investment, due to the high cost of education and support, the fertility desire of replacing the number of children with the quality of children lacks a realistic basis. On the one hand, the floating population is eager to leave their children in the city for education; On the other hand, the reality of excessive pressure on education costs makes it difficult for them to do so.

3. The social support for the realization of fertility will is weak.

The cost of raising and education is a direct factor that affects the fertility desire of floating population, but the realistic basis of fertility desire depends not only on these two aspects, but also on the living conditions of floating population in cities. Because, for the floating population, their living environment in the city, their satisfaction with available resources and the main difficulties they encounter will directly or indirectly affect their fertility wishes and actual fertility decisions. At the same time, these factors largely determine their integration into urban life, which in turn affects their acceptance of urban fertility culture.

Due to the shortage of system supply and the absence of government role, the floating population from rural areas to cities often have to bear great survival pressure and face many development difficulties. They will encounter various difficulties in employment, housing, medical treatment and daily necessities. At the same time, floating population will be discriminated by urban residents in the process of social integration of urban life, and social exclusion and discrimination will further worsen the living difficulties of floating population. Therefore, the objective presentation of the living conditions and difficulties faced by the floating population can further explore the social mechanism of the formation of their fertility will and the realization of their actual fertility behavior in the future. For the government's support to the floating population, many floating population are unwilling to evaluate the government. As far as the respondents who made the evaluation are concerned, they generally believe that the government is absent from the social support network of the floating population, and the floating population lacks institutional supply and social support from the government.

The government, I feel that the government seems to be quite far away from me. (Respondent: SMUS2, male, 2 1 year old, unmarried)

I have never heard that the government has preferential policies for us. The policies issued by the government are all aimed at local hukou, which is impossible in other places. Never heard of it, never enjoyed it. I have never heard that the government is helpful to migrant workers, unless it is particularly difficult. (Interviewee: SFMCR3, female, 24 years old, married with one son)

In a word, the pull and pressure of city life act on the floating population, which puts the floating population in a dilemma. On the one hand, the living environment, lifestyle, living content, income and education of the city attract floating population to the city; On the other hand, the pressure of urban living expenses, the lack of institutional supply and the existence of social discrimination make the floating population at the bottom of urban life, making it difficult to achieve a dignified life. This dilemma will also have an important impact on the floating population's fertility concept, making their fertility will and actual fertility behavior expectations unstable and uncertain. Therefore, due to the lack of social support system for the floating population's fertility will, there is still a big gap between the rational fertility will and the actual fertility behavior of the floating population.

Third, conclusion and reflection.

Through interviews, it is found that with the change of living area and lifestyle, the fertility will of floating population presents some new characteristics. Mainly can be summarized as the following aspects:

First, the trend of replacing quantity with quality has been formed. At present, the cost of raising children has become the primary factor for floating population to consider when making fertility decisions. When economic conditions permit and nursing resources are sufficient, floating population is more inclined to raise children in cities with better educational environment. Therefore, compared with rural areas, the cost of education in cities has risen sharply, which makes many respondents think that the current economic income is difficult to support the decision-making of two children, so as to ensure that children get enough resources and opportunities during their growth. This reflects that among the floating population, there has been a trend of replacing quantity with quality. However, due to the substantial increase in the cost of living and education in cities, the floating population's willingness to choose quality rather than quantity is reduced, and there is a big gap between the demand and supply of children's quality.

Second, gender selection presents a rational side. Although some respondents still have obvious preference for boys, most floating population has begun to reflect on the practical benefits of this preference more rationally. Through direct experience or indirect experience, many interviewees can rationally realize that compared with boys, girls have lower cost (no need to prepare a house for their daughters) and higher income (girls are more likely to find a job and their daughters will be more filial). Therefore, girls' preference for childbearing or their desire to have children without gender preference is gradually increasing.

Third, the opportunity cost and time cost of personal development have gradually become important factors in fertility decision-making. Some interviewees will consider their career development, or personal energy input and time cost when making birth expectations. Although this is not a common phenomenon, it can be seen that the floating population's life concept and demand for self-living space are more in line with the urban community culture. Compared with the cost of raising children, individual opportunity cost and development cost are not the primary factors affecting the formation of fertility will, but their importance has already appeared.

Fourth, the duality of the floating population's fertility will is very obvious. On the one hand, the change of working and living environment makes them deeply influenced by urban fertility culture and far away from the customs and cultures inherited by rural communities, especially the traditional fertility culture; On the other hand, they still keep close contact with rural communities and are restricted by the deep-rooted rural fertility culture. This duality makes the floating population show marginal characteristics. They accept the modern concept of urban fertility and are still influenced by the traditional concept of rural fertility. It can be inferred that whether the floating population can integrate well into the urban society and judge whether the future expectation focuses on the city will directly determine the difference between their fertility will and the actual fertility decision. Therefore, the uncertainty of future life expectancy may lead to the actual fertility behavior deviating from the fertility will to some extent.

Fifth, the floating population's quality-oriented fertility will lacks the corresponding realistic basis. In the social support system of floating population's reproductive behavior, the lack of system supply and government role not only aggravated the difficulty of floating population's integration into urban society, but also delayed the realistic transformation of floating population's reproductive concept from traditional to modern. Fertility decision-making is influenced by a series of direct and indirect factors, and the lack of institutional supply and the absence of government role will directly affect these factors, making the floating population's quality-oriented fertility desire lack of realistic basis for realization.

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