Xinhuanet Buenos Aires 65438+10.3 (Reporter Song Feng) On the 2nd, the oil price in the US new york market once broke through the 100 dollar mark, causing quite a shock in Latin America. According to media analysis here, after the oil price exceeds 100 USD, the political map of Latin America will be redrawn.

Argentina's Financial News reported that oil producers and exporters such as Venezuela, Mexico and Ecuador have greatly increased their voice in regional affairs, and Brazil, a regional power, is also ambitious to join the ranks of oil exporters. For oil importing countries such as Argentina and Chile, energy issues will become the core of foreign policy.

Santiago Chera, an international strategist at the University of Buenos Aires in Argentina, said that in the international environment of high oil prices, oil-producing countries will have a greater say in Latin American affairs. These countries can use oil export income to buy bonds of other countries, increase investment in other Latin American countries, and also conduct diplomatic actions through oil export.

Chera said that seven South American countries, including Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, initiated the establishment of the South Bank last year to compete with international financial institutions. A background that cannot be ignored is that Venezuela, Ecuador and other oil-producing countries have accumulated a large number of "petrodollars" with the help of high oil prices. Without the support of these "petrodollars", it will be difficult for Latin American countries to establish regional financial institutions by self-financing.

Venezuela is the largest energy country in Latin America, the fifth largest crude oil exporter in the world and the only Latin American country in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Venezuela has benefited greatly from the sharp rise in oil prices in the international market. The Chavez government supported the high oil price policy and actively carried out "oil diplomacy", which greatly increased its influence in Latin American affairs. Venezuela initiated the establishment of the "Caribbean Petroleum Plan" and promised to supply oil and petroleum products to Caribbean countries at preferential prices and terms of trade.

This plan is attractive to Central American and Caribbean countries that lack oil resources. Some analysts believe that Chavez successfully used oil to attract Latin American countries, unite Caribbean and Central American countries, expand his influence in Latin America, and increase the capital to compete with the United States.

For Brazil, a big Latin American country, the lack of oil is the bottleneck that hinders it from becoming a world-class economic power. The two oil crises in the last century dealt a great blow to Brazil's economy, and the lessons were quite painful. The Brazilian government realizes that if it cannot achieve self-sufficiency in oil, Brazil will not only be unable to take the initiative in economic development, but also its influence in regional affairs will be weakened. In recent years, Brazil has strengthened offshore oil exploration and finally achieved exciting results.

Petrobras announced in June, 5438+February last year that a super-large oil field with an estimated reserve of 5 billion to 8 billion barrels, Tupi Oil Field, had been discovered in the deep sea of southeastern Brazil. This is not only the largest oil field discovered in Brazil so far, but also one of the largest oil fields discovered in the world in the past 30 years. According to experts' prediction, the oil reserves in the super-large oil and gas structure of Tupi Oilfield will be as high as 70 billion barrels, and Brazil's oil reserves will also jump from the current 17 th place in the world to the ninth place.

Brazil's Sao Paulo newspaper commented that the discovery of Tupi oil field "greatly shortened the timetable for Brazil to become a world-class economic power". Argentina's "Clarion" analysis believes that the discovery of this super-large oil field has "suddenly enhanced" Brazil's right to speak in Latin American affairs. Brazil can make full use of its potential oil resources and expand its influence and appeal in Latin America. Argentina has been leaning towards Venezuela in energy policy before, but after Brazil announced the discovery of extra-large oil fields, it immediately expressed its hope to jointly exploit offshore oil fields with Brazil. Cristina, the new president of Argentina, also proposed the strategic cooperation between the two countries in the energy field.

For Latin American oil importers such as Chile and Argentina, oil has become one of the core foreign policies of these countries in the international ecological environment of high oil prices. Since last year, energy cooperation among Latin American countries has been in the ascendant, and many large-scale regional energy cooperation projects have surfaced.

Argentine energy expert Silva Ivan Peko said that although it is only a symbol and signal that the oil price exceeds $0/00 per barrel, judging from the current international political and economic situation, high oil prices will persist for a long time, and many countries will adjust their internal affairs and diplomacy around high oil prices, and Latin American countries are no exception. It is worth noting that when the international oil price falls from a high level, the relationship between countries will be subtly adjusted again, and the oil price determines the right to speak of different Latin American countries in regional affairs to a certain extent.

2) Why did the political crisis in Ukraine turn?

The Supreme Court of Ukraine made a final judgment on the 3rd, ruling that the second round of the presidential election held on June165438+1October 2 1 was invalid, and announced that the second round of the presidential election would be held again on the 26th of this month. This move put an end to the struggle between the two campaign camps, and the political crisis in Ukraine triggered by the election results also turned for the better.

165438+1On October 22nd, the preliminary vote count of the second round of the presidential election announced by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine showed that the current Prime Minister Yanukovych defeated opposition candidate Yushchenko with a slight advantage and was elected president. Yushchenko immediately said that he did not accept the result, accused the authorities of serious fraud in the general election, and filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court, demanding that the election result be declared invalid and a second round of voting be held again. Meanwhile, Yushchenko's supporters held various protests all over the country. The largest protest took place in Independence Square in the center of Kiev, the capital. The rally of tens of thousands of people has now entered 13.

Yanukovych initially insisted that the election results were valid, denied cheating in the election and opposed re-voting. In the eastern region where his supporters are concentrated, there are also rallies and demonstrations. He said that he will resolutely defend the election results announced by the Central Election Commission.

With the development of the situation, Ukrainian society is in sharp turmoil, and there is serious opposition between the eastern and western regions, and even signs of ethnic division have appeared. This has aroused strong reaction and concern from Ukrainian political circles and the international community. Under the mediation of the international community, the opposing sides in Ukraine have held two rounds of talks and reached some understandings on easing the domestic situation. However, on the most crucial issue, that is, how to elect a new president when the Supreme Court declared the election results invalid, the two sides held their own words and refused to give way to each other.

Since the election results caused controversy, the opposition has stood firm, uncompromising and pushed forward step by step; Yanukovych, on the other hand, changed his position, sought compromise and lost ground. Yanukovych and his campaign team were tough at first, demanding that the opposition recognize the election results. With the intensification of domestic turmoil and increasing pressure at home and abroad, Yanukovych began to soften his position and tried to reach some kind of compromise with the opposition. For example, he proposed political reform, saying that Yushchenko could become prime minister after being elected president. He particularly emphasized that according to the state system after the political reform, the Prime Minister will actually be the number one figure in the country. But Yushchenko was ungrateful and dismissive. Later, Yanukovych also filed a complaint with the Supreme Court, demanding that the election results be declared invalid, because there were also large-scale frauds in areas that mainly supported Yushchenko. However, Yanukovych called for a new election, not a second round of voting.

The two sides are at loggerheads over how to produce a new president. Yushchenko believes that the other party's request for re-election is to delay the time so that the authorities can launch a new presidential candidate. Yanukovych, on the other hand, believes that since the opposition refused to accept the election results and believed that the Central Election Commission assisted the authorities in cheating, it should hold a new election, because the first round of voting was also conducted under the leadership of the Central Election Commission. According to the logic of the opposition, there should be problems in the first round of elections.

Now, the Supreme Court of Ukraine has made a ruling, and the verdict fully meets the requirements of the opposition. That night, the opposition began to celebrate the victory, and the United States and the European Union also responded quickly and welcomed the ruling of the Supreme Court of Ukraine.

Yanukovych read a statement through his spokesman on the 4th. The statement said that the decision of the Supreme Court was made under great political pressure and violated the Ukrainian Constitution. However, Yanukovych will not give up participating in the presidential election. He had no choice but to run for public office and win.

At present, the dispute about the election results has been settled, the dispute about the presidential election method has also been resolved, and the first stage of the struggle between the opposing sides has ended. Both campaigns indicated that they would participate in the second round of re-voting. From the current point of view, the political situation in Ukraine will stabilize before the re-election on the 26th. Who will win the second round of voting will become the focus of world attention. Public opinion here believes that no matter who wins in the end, he will not lead his opponent too much in the number of votes.

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