Keywords consumption; Savings; Gift savings
1 the development of China's final savings rate
The first stage: from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, the final savings rate in China rose steadily, increasing by 10 percentage point during 15.
The second stage: In the middle and late 1990s, the final savings rate in China showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.6% in five years.
The third stage: After entering 2 1 century, the final savings rate of China has further increased.
2 savings behavior of prospective residents
China residents can be divided into two categories: forward-looking residents and short-sighted residents. This paper mainly discusses the savings behavior of future residents. Residents' forward-looking savings can be roughly divided into three categories: preventive savings, gift savings and life-cycle savings. Different types of savings have different motives. Therefore, the relationship with current income is different.
2. 1 precautionary savings in forward-looking savings: precautionary savings are used to prevent future uncertainty. The factors leading to precautionary savings can be divided into two categories. The first category: uncertain factors. Under uncertain factors (such as income uncertainty), residents will directly increase their savings, thus preventing the utility from declining due to drastic fluctuations in consumption. This effect is direct, and residents directly adjust their savings under the influence of this uncertainty. In China, the uncertainty of income does not affect the consumption of prospective residents, that is, it will not cause precautionary savings.
The second category: supportability factors. Under low-income factors (such as imperfect social security system or low-income security), far-sighted residents will become very patient and try to save as much as possible, thus reducing current consumption and increasing preventive savings. This kind of influence is indirect, and security factors affect residents' patience, which in turn affects residents' savings. The second kind of factors are essentially variables relative to uncertain factors. Such factors can improve the ability to resist risks. Specifically: the current total income (scale), various social security systems (such as pension insurance system, unemployment insurance system, medical insurance system, etc.). ). Institutional factors will not be discussed for the time being. The influence of current income scale on preventive savings is manifested in two aspects: on the one hand, the larger the current income scale, the stronger its ability to resist risks, the weaker its motivation to carry out preventive savings, and the smaller its marginal propensity to save. Because income fluctuation has little influence on consumption, it will be offset by income scale, and there will be no consumption fluctuation, so there is no need for a large number of preventive savings to prevent consumption fluctuation. On the other hand, the smaller the current income, the weaker the ability to resist risks, the stronger the motivation to carry out preventive savings, and the greater the marginal propensity to save. Because income fluctuation has a great influence on consumption, and the scale of income cannot offset this influence, in order to prevent consumption fluctuation and maximize utility, residents become very patient, thus reducing current consumption and increasing preventive savings to prevent consumption fluctuation. Therefore, the current income scale is inversely proportional to preventive savings.
2.2 Gift savings in forward-looking savings: Gift savings are savings given to others (especially future generations). The factors that determine gift saving include subjective factors and objective factors. Subjective factors are mainly residents' psychological factors, including personal preference for gift savings, not to mention for the time being. There are two objective factors that determine savings, income scale and income distribution.
The influence of income scale and income distribution on gift savings: the income scale is directly proportional to gift savings, and the increase of income scale will lead to the increase of consumption, which will lead to the decrease of marginal utility of consumption, so the increase of income scale will lead to the decrease of marginal utility of consumption; Gift savings will also increase the total utility, and with the increase of income scale, the marginal utility of gift savings will increase. When the marginal utility of consumption is lower than that of gift savings, gift savings will appear. Therefore, the increase of income scale will reduce the marginal utility of consumption and increase the marginal utility of gift savings, thus generating gift savings. The relationship between income distribution and gift savings. Under the condition of constant income scale, the change of income will affect the change of gift savings. The main criterion for measuring income distribution is Gini coefficient. The greater the Gini coefficient of income, it shows that a small number of people occupy a large amount of current income, which shows the degree of social injustice. The more uneven the income distribution, the greater the Gini coefficient, and the larger the income of a few well-known people, so a large number of donated savings will be generated. So the Gini coefficient is directly proportional to the gift savings.
2.3 life-cycle savings in forward-looking savings: modigliani and Bloomberg assume that consumers face the utility function of total consumption now and in the future. Try to allocate my life income between consumption and savings to maximize utility. In the decision-making process, consumers will not only consider the current income, but also consider the future income. But the actor is a shortsighted actor. Because income changes in real life, under the framework of applicability expectation, the income in the early stage is the main index to predict the future income. So consumption will be affected by continuous income. The sustainable income is determined by the current income and the previous income. Consumption is ultimately affected by current income. But whether consumption is affected by current income or not, savings are always related to current income. Only when consumption is affected by current income, the change of income will be partially converted into savings, and the growth of savings will be relatively slow; When the tip is not affected by the current income, the change of income is completely transformed into savings, and the growth of savings is relatively fast.
3. Explanation of the recent development of final savings rate in China.
The first stage: after the far-sighted residents have solved the problem of food and clothing, the gradual increase of income scale leads to the increase of precautionary saving tendency and the rapid growth of precautionary saving. And its growth rate far exceeds the growth rate of consumption, so the final savings rate rose steadily during this period.
The second stage: the income of prospective residents and the total amount of preventive savings reach a certain scale. At the same time, the marginal saving tendency of gift savings is not very strong, so the total saving tendency of urban residents is weakened. Leading to a decline in the final savings rate.
The third stage: the marginal saving tendency of gift savings is getting bigger and bigger, which is caused by the further expansion of the income scale of prospective urban residents and the further improvement of Gini coefficient of urban residents' income.
4. Policy suggestions to improve the savings behavior of urban residents.
The growth of GDP is the main guarantee for the income growth of urban residents. As a country with the greatest development potential, China's GDP will maintain a steady and sustained growth trend in the future, so the income level of urban residents will also increase steadily. In addition, at this stage. The average growth rate of urban residents' income is about 1 1%, and the fluctuation does not exceed 2%, especially in the last two years, which basically remains at the level of 1 1%. Therefore, judging from the current income data and the basic economic situation in China, the income level of urban residents will continue to grow steadily, so the savings will also increase rapidly. The steady growth of savings in China is of great significance to the long-term development of China's economy. The steady growth of residents' savings is the source of funds for China's high economic growth. On the other hand, the rapid growth of savings in China has also brought some disturbing factors to the short-term economic growth in China. As an important part of GDP, consumption is an important pillar of stable economic development. Low consumption will not only lead to insufficient domestic demand, but also highlight the position of investment in the economy, thus increasing the violent fluctuation of the economy.
4. 1 Applicable tax policy. On the one hand, personal income tax, inheritance tax and gift tax can directly narrow the gap between the rich and the poor; On the other hand, the government can also raise enough funds for this, which is conducive to the implementation of other income redistribution policies.
4.2 the use of fiscal expenditure policy. In the short term, the government directly prevents the gap between the rich and the poor from widening by means of transfer payment. In the long run, the government regulates the gap between the rich and the poor caused by the education gap and the knowledge gap through education expenditure.
4.3 Narrow the industry income gap. Adjusting the income gap between monopoly industries and non-monopoly industries is one of the important measures to prevent the gap between the rich and the poor.
refer to
[1] editors. Supporting Economic Growth: A Study of Consumption, Savings and Investment in China, Chinese Publishing House, 200 1. 1.
[2] warehouse. Analysis of residents' assets and consumption choice behavior. Shanghai Sanlian Bookstore. Shanghai People's Publishing House, 200 1.4.
[3] Wang Liping. A summary of consumer behavior research in China during the transitional period. Economic trends,