Theoretically, at present, there are at least 654.38 billion urban residents in China who should have cars at home. According to the international minimum standard of 30 cars per thousand people, the number of family cars owned by urban residents in China should be no less than 3.6 million at present. In fact, at the end of 2000, the number of passenger cars owned by residents in China was only 3.65 million, of which only 1.8 million was a family car with 50% conversion. The actual quantity is only half of the theoretical value. For another example, the theoretical minimum number of permanent cars in Shanghai should be 420,000, but actually it is less than 40,000.

First, unreasonable understanding.

One of the understandings: "Cars are a kind of treatment for officials" makes it impossible for private people to buy cars with money.

Before 1984, private cars in China were not allowed to be purchased, that is, they were used exclusively by officials. Someone once said: "FAW and Japan started to build cars almost at the same time, but we built cars for officials and Japan built cars for nationals." Internationally, cars are classified according to displacement and wheelbase, while in China, only cars are classified according to administrative levels, such as provincial cars, bureau-level cars, county-level cars and township-level cars.

The second understanding: "cars are means of production" makes it impossible for private people to own cars.

Official vehicles have always been regarded as means of production, but the role of their means of transportation has dropped to the second place. Accordingly, the purchase and sale of automobiles shall be unified purchase and marketing according to the means of production, and materials shall be allocated.

After the reform of the circulation system, the total amount of acquisition (controlled purchase) is adjusted by controlling the purchasing power of the group. Cars can only be allocated to units owned by the whole people, and private people cannot own cars.

The third understanding: "the car is a symbol of status" makes it difficult for cars to enter the homes of ordinary people.

With the lifting of the ban on cars, private people can buy cars, and those who can buy private cars are those who get rich first. They have no ranking to follow, but they can be measured by wealth. People with different wealth will buy cars with corresponding prices according to their own wealth level. Under this understanding, cars are always more advanced and farther away from the lives of ordinary residents. "A car is a monster, and the more expensive it is, the better it sells", a unique phenomenon in China's automobile market, is the direct result of this view.

Second, the price is too high.

According to the standard of per capita GDP, at present, the highest number of cars entering families in China should exceed 500 million, but according to the R value (car price/per capita GDP), there are only more than 40 million people. The reason for the huge contrast is that the price of cars in China is too high, and it is difficult to convert potential demand into real demand, which directly affects the process of cars entering the family.

Performance;

1. Comparison of international and domestic prices of China automobile market.

The international price of 2.8L Audi A6 is less than half of that of domestic imported cars, and only 60% of that of domestic Audi A6. The same is true of the 2.3L Honda Accord. Another example is "Jetta", as long as it is 9,000 ~ 65,438,000+0,000 abroad. The price of "Alto" abroad is only 3,000 US dollars, which is about 25,000 yuan.

It can be seen that the retail price of domestic cars is almost 50% higher than that of similar foreign cars.

At present, the per capita income of urban residents in China is more than 800 US dollars, while the per capita annual income of Americans and Japanese is more than 36,000 US dollars, which is 40 times of ours, but the price of the same model car in China is 2 ~ 3 times higher than that in the above two countries! In other words, the ratio of income to car price is more than 100 times higher than that of developed countries!

2. The expected demand structure of consumers is far from the actual supply structure. In 2000, China Consumers Association and consumer associations in 20 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, jointly conducted a survey on family car consumption. The survey results show that when asked "why not buy a car", the first answer is "the price is too high", accounting for 40.5%; 67.7% of the respondents believe that price is a restrictive factor in car purchase.

Another survey report shows that: 4 1.6% people can afford the price below 50,000 yuan; 35.2% of people can bear the price between 50,000 -654.38+ 10,000 yuan; 14.4% people can afford the price between 1 10,000 yuan and10.5 million yuan; The price that 6.5% people can afford is between 6.5438+0.5 million yuan and 0.2 million yuan; There are also 2.3% people who can bear the price of more than 200 thousand yuan.

The prices of Santana, Jetta and Fukang are all10-15,000 yuan, Audi, Buick, Xiaoqihongqi and Accord are all above 200,000 yuan, the price of Li Xia is 55,438+00,000 yuan, and the cars below 50,000 yuan are Alto and Skylark. From this, we can get the actual supply structure and expected demand structure of Chinese cars.

76.9% residents expect the car price to be below 654.38+10,000 yuan, and only 23.5% residents expect the car price to be below 654.38+10,000 yuan. This phenomenon can be summarized as "80% low-cost demand, only 20% supply; 20% of high-priced demand has 80% of supply. "

cause

1, price control

1979 China began to allow private car ownership, 1984 declared private car purchase legal. However, in 198 1, China began to implement price control on all kinds of cars, including cars, and then gradually liberalized them. Until 200 1, the automobile price control was completely liberalized, and enterprises set their own prices according to market supply and demand.

In China, automobiles have long been regarded as means of production and a kind of rationing treatment for leaders of various units. However, all units have tried their best to buy cars, and the demand for cars has been strong, but the supply is insufficient, which has been in short supply for a long time. Therefore, as a management department, the price of the car is set relatively high, so as to limit the demand for this battery shape.

2, the scale is uneconomical and the cost is too high.

Automobile production is the most obvious industry with economies of scale. With the increase of output, the average cost is decreasing. The authoritative department has counted the relationship between the production scale and cost of Li Xia cars in Tianjin. With the expansion of production scale, the unit cost of Li Xia cars is gradually decreasing: when the production scale is increased from 6,543,800 to 30,000, the unit product cost is reduced by 29.6%; When the production scale increased from 30,000 to 80,000, the unit product cost decreased by 8.3%; When the production scale increased from 80,000 vehicles to 6,543.8+0.5 million vehicles, the unit product cost decreased by 5.654.38+0%; When the production scale increased from 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles to 200,000 vehicles, the unit product cost decreased by 654.38+0.3%. Japanese experts estimate that if the annual output of automobiles in Li Xia reaches 300,000? The riding cost can be reduced to 30,000 yuan.

3. Due to the lack of price elasticity, the market structure dominated by buses and commercial vehicles has maintained a high price.

Compared with market economy countries, it is a unique phenomenon in China car market that buses and commercial vehicles are the mainstay. In 1990, Japanese family car consumption accounted for 79% of the car market, while in 1989, Korean family car consumption accounted for 90% of the car market, while in 1999, the proportion in China was only 35%. Although the sales of family cars in Beijing and other cities have accounted for 60% at present, in the national automobile sales market of 200 1, official cars still account for 34%, family cars account for 37% and taxis account for 29%. From the market point of view, in most areas, "Volkswagen" is still the biggest "buyer" of mid-to high-end cars, accounting for more than 70%.

Whether it is a commercial vehicle or a commercial vehicle, its price elasticity is very small, that is to say, price reduction cannot expand market demand. Therefore, China automobile manufacturers are willing to keep high prices to obtain high profits.

4. Industry administrative monopoly restricts competition, creates high profits and maintains high prices.

Due to the long-term administrative control, the automobile production in China has become the patent of a few automobile manufacturers, forming a situation of administrative monopoly of the industry. Just as Li Rongrong, former deputy director of the State Economic and Trade Commission, summed up the lessons of the development of China's automobile industry during the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, he believed that excessive protection led to insufficient competition, which was one of the biggest mistakes in the development of China's automobile industry.

The access system has seriously weakened market competition.

Over the years, the China government has implemented a strict investment examination and approval system for the automobile industry. Cars, light vehicles and engines are all approved by the state. The original intention is to restrict the blind entry of social capital through administrative examination and approval, and alleviate the situation of "scattered, chaotic and poor" in the automobile industry. However, this measure has seriously weakened market competition and made enterprises lose the motivation and pressure to improve efficiency.

This access system for automobile production and operation is a kind of approval of government behavior. An auto industry veteran commented that the auto industry in China has not grown up for 50 years, and the crux lies in the monopoly of "only allowing me to do it, not allowing you to do it". It is difficult for emerging enterprises to enter, and the automobile industry lacks competition, so it lacks vitality.

Directory management has become a natural barrier to administrative monopoly.

In the automobile catalogue of the State Economic and Trade Commission, a car can be sold without production; On the contrary, if you don't go to the catalogue, you can produce cars and you can't sell them. Directory management has become an unattainable threshold for new entrants and a rent-seeking tool for people on the directory list. Due to the limitation of automobile catalogue, some domestic automobile manufacturers have to find a shortcut to get on the bus, that is, the automobile catalogue, so an approved automobile manufacturer such as Jiangsu Da Yue, Songhua River Bailey, Changhe Big Dipper and Nanqi Yinger has appeared in the society. At the same time, the phenomenon of applying catalogues and buying and selling product certificates in disguise also occurs from time to time, and criminals take the opportunity to profit from it.

In order to be in line with international rules, the relevant parties have drawn up a timetable for the complete abolition of catalogue management and the implementation of type certification system in 2003, and introduced transitional measures to replace catalogues with announcements in 20001year. However, in fact, catalog management has long been a natural barrier for the automobile industry to become an administrative monopoly industry.

Fixed-point production constitutes another industry entry barrier.

From 65438 to 0987, China government planned "three bases and three production points", namely "three big and three small" automobile production bases. This fixed-point production system not only restricts the development of existing automobile products, but also restricts other new entrants, which constitutes another industry entry barrier.

High tariffs lead to unbreakable administrative monopoly. Before 200 1, China's automobile import tariff has been 80%- 100%. Under the protection of such high tariffs, China's automobile market is almost a closed market, and the administrative monopoly of the automobile industry is indestructible for a long time. Due to the monopoly of the administrative industry, the average profit of China car companies has turned into huge profits, which is much higher than the average profit of 3%-5% of foreign cars. As shown in table 10.

In 2000, the profit rate of international automobile giants was between 3% and 5%, and the annual production scale was more than one million vehicles, while the profit rate of domestic middle and high-end cars was much higher than this profit rate. For example, in 2000, the production and sales volume of FAW-Volkswagen was about 1% of that of General Motors, but its profit margin was as high as 16%, which exceeded the profit margin of General Motors by 12 percentage points. The profit rate of FAW cars with a production and sales volume of about 1.5 million vehicles exceeds 8%. Such a small scale, the corresponding cost is not low, but there is such a high profit, is there a reason for low prices?

Third, taxes and fees are too high.

China automobile consumers "enjoy" high car prices and bear high taxes, which is also rare in the world. Relevant data show that China is the country with the largest automobile tax in the world, and the taxes of automobile consumption are: value-added tax, consumption tax, purchase surcharge and vehicle and vessel use tax; In addition, the charging items expressly stipulated by the state include: vehicle inspection fee, urban capacity increase fee, household fee, insurance fee, annual inspection fee, road maintenance fee, traffic control fee, vehicle license fee, toll fee, etc. There are also many irregular departments and local charging items, which are numerous and miscellaneous. According to statistics, there are nearly a thousand charging items based on local interests. According to statistics, the total annual tax revenue of various automobiles in China is as high as 654.38+050 billion yuan, which is far higher than the total profit of the automobile industry.

According to another data, in China, the real car price generally only accounts for 60% of the car purchase cost, and 40% belongs to value-added tax, consumption tax, vehicle purchase tax and various unreasonable expenses in various places. A 6.5438 million yuan car includes about 6.5438 million yuan of value-added tax and consumption tax, and 6.5438 million yuan of purchase tax. If the localization rate reaches 80%, the tariff is about 5,000 yuan, and the local capacity increase fee is about 6,543.8+0.5 million yuan. The car price, purchase tax and local capacity increase fee add up to 6.5438+0.25 million yuan, of which the in-price and out-price taxes and fees are * * 4.5 million yuan, accounting for 32.6% of 6.5438+0.25 million yuan.

In fact, the proportion of taxes and fees is far more than many places. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 500 kinds of vehicle and road toll items in China, which are significantly higher than those in foreign countries. In Europe and America, the lowest car purchase tax is in the United States, and some States do not charge purchase tax, and the most is only 6%; In European countries, car purchases generally only need to pay VAT. The tax rate in Germany is 15%, Italy is 20%, Britain is 17.5%, and France is 20.6%.

The variety of tax and fee items will inevitably lead to complicated procedures for car purchase and car use. Not only should there be various certification reports, seals of the competent unit or street, financial seals, etc. In the process of purchase, but in the process of driving, in addition to driver's license, vehicle and vessel use tax certificate, vehicle purchase tax certificate, vehicle certificate, environmental protection guarantee, vehicle inspection certificate, there are nearly ten kinds of documents that must be brought. According to the "Family Car Survey" of China Consumers Association, 22.6% people think that "the additional cost of cars is high" and 17.8% people think that "the maintenance cost is high", which adds up to 40.4%. The phrase "can afford it, can't afford it, can't afford it" can best reflect residents' dissatisfaction with this consumption system.

Fourth, the public transport system.

China's public transport system was introduced from the Soviet Union and came into being from the supply system in the early days of liberation. At that time, the allocation of cars by cadres was strictly controlled. In the 1980s, jeeps below the county level and cars above the bureau level were only allocated to ministers and executive vice-ministers over 65 years old. 1984 Cancel this regulation and bid for the bus immediately. During the Eighth Five-Year Plan period, the annual growth rate was 26.99% and 16.2%. 1998, 820,000 buses were added nationwide, and the purchase amount was as high as 100 billion yuan. Together with the driver's salary, fuel, insurance, maintenance, road maintenance and other expenses, the annual expenditure is nearly 200 billion yuan, equivalent to twice the national defense expenditure of that year.

Under the framework of the bus system, buying a car with public funds has formed a unique consumption feature.

(1) Standard car purchase. A large part of the public car purchase is the car of the leader, which is linked to the administrative level of the leader. It is an administrative treatment to equip the bus. The standard of treatment is divided by the displacement of the car. As long as it meets the national regulations on displacement, the higher the grade of buying a car, the better, and the second is the price.

(2) Public car purchase is a policy market. The passenger car market in China is greatly influenced by the national macro-economy. Its market fluctuation is completely consistent with the macroeconomic cycle and has not formed its own development law, so it is an immature market.

(3) Buses are means of production, not consumer goods. The purchase restriction policy still affects the demand of the automobile market.

(4) The car purchase cost is separated from the use cost. Under the current management mode, the purchase and use of buses are divided into two expenses. The bus purchase cost is put into fixed assets as the means of production, and the later use cost is spread into the management cost by the management cost. Since purchase and use are two accounts, there is no need to consider the issue of "affordability" when buying a car with public funds.

(5) There is convergence in buying a car with public funds. Because the treatment of car use is linked to the administrative level, it is necessary to consider the balance of all levels when buying a car with public funds, and it is best to find some "reference objects" to avoid violating the policy and causing colleagues' comments or superiors' dissatisfaction. This kind of "convergence psychology" is relatively simple in the demand for car varieties. Even the color of cars should try to avoid "fancy" and choose black, because its solemnity can easily be widely recognized.

The existence of public transport system not only affects the product structure of automobiles, maintains the high system cost in automobile consumption, but also directly reduces the number of private car buyers.

(1) directly reduced the number of people buying residential cars. Because bus passengers are the head or backbone of the unit, they are the most likely to buy private cars. Because there is a bus to take, naturally I won't buy a private car. In addition, people who fail to get on the bus but are likely to take the bus will also wait for the bus; Besides, those who have difficulty in using buses will not buy private cars even if they can afford them. These three blocks directly reduce the number of potential consumers who are most likely to buy private cars.

(2) Snobbish effect reduces the number of car buyers. Because the bus is purchased by public funds, it is natural to try to buy a good car and a high-priced car, which gives an invisible pressure to those who can't take the bus but may buy a private car. Under the influence of vanity, watching colleagues and friends take high-class buses, if you buy an economy car, you might as well not buy it, so as not to be looked down upon. As a result, the number of people buying private cars has also decreased.

Five, the lag of consumer credit

In western developed countries, in order to cultivate the consumer market of bulk durable goods, banks generally provide loans, accounting for 70% of the payment. A large part of new car sales are realized by installment payment, and car manufacturers sometimes take discount measures to sell cars at preferential prices.

China's banks only carried out automobile consumption credit business from 1998 to 10, accounting for less than 10% of the total automobile sales. China Construction Bank, which was the first to launch automobile consumption credit, issued 2.67 billion yuan of automobile consumption credit by the end of 1999, and China Agricultural Bank was 8 10/00000 yuan. All these indicate that automobile consumption credit has just started in China, and the development of automobile consumption credit is lagging behind.

The main reasons why consumers are unwilling to choose the credit car purchase method are: (1) The loan procedure is complicated; The down payment is too high and the repayment time is too short; High additional cost; There are too few ways to guarantee.

Therefore, consumers can't use their cars as collateral, but only apply for loans in the form of securities, real estate or third-party guarantees, which makes it difficult for ordinary consumers to meet the requirements. Financial institutions are also not suitable for large-scale consumer credit to ordinary consumers. Under the condition of planned economy, the credit management mode of commercial banks mainly supports production, and the focus of loans is industrial and commercial enterprises. The emphasis on personal consumption credit and the preparation of implementation conditions are not sufficient. Therefore, the loan conditions are strict and the procedures are complicated, and there is still a big gap between the loan period, interest rate and scope and the needs of consumers.

From the demand point of view, automobile consumption credit actually transforms the future consumption of automobile consumers into the present consumption, which is equivalent to increasing the current income of consumers. Therefore, the lag of automobile consumption credit makes these future buyers unable to buy at present, reducing the current number of car purchases.

Uncertainty expectation of intransitive verbs

Due to the advancement of the reform process, the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China has produced some uncertain expectations. For example, due to the cancellation of the free medical care system, people's awareness of medical insurance has suddenly increased, and after solving the housing problem, they still need to spend a lot of money on medical insurance; Due to the sudden implementation of education reform, parents are forced to save some money for their children's education or buy education insurance; Finally, some people leave some money for their old age. Because these reforms have just been implemented, people have no idea about the final expenditure. Therefore, with the increase of income, they did not show the impulse to buy a car, which affected the effective supply of automobile consumption to some extent.

With China's formal entry into the WTO in February, 200 11,automobile tariffs are constantly lowered, and domestic cars will inevitably reduce their prices under the impact of imported cars; In addition, with the cancellation of the automobile production access system, a large number of new automobile manufacturers will enter, and the automobile industry will move from administrative monopoly to competition, and the price of automobiles will naturally fall. Under this expectation of price reduction, residents who are not in a hurry to buy a car will naturally choose to wait, which also affects the process of cars entering the family to some extent.