In my opinion, China's diplomacy facing the 2 1 century has three basic interests and needs. These three basic interests and needs are: first, development interests and needs, that is, to serve the domestic economic construction goals and strive for a relatively stable external environment conducive to reform and development; Second, the interests and needs of sovereignty, that is, to protect territory, borders and basic sovereignty from infringement and gradually realize national reunification through long-term efforts; Third, the needs and interests of responsibility, that is, to exert positive and leading influence in the Asia-Pacific region and strive to become an influential and recognized constructive country in the world. These three basic needs are not parallel and equal in weight, but in order from inside to outside and from near to far, with different priorities; They are basically mutually beneficial, but they will also produce major contradictions and frictions. Coordination will be difficult and long-term, and we should be fully prepared for it. When examining different needs, we must look at the overall situation and plan the future as a whole.

"Do your own thing well first" is one of the most important admonitions left by Deng Xiaoping, the chief architect of China's reform and opening up, and it is also the most direct and concise expression of "development needs". The history since the founding of New China for half a century has proved that if China's domestic economic construction and people's life are not paid enough attention, its peaceful and independent foreign policy is often empty, at least lacking a strong and sustainable social foundation; With the development of domestic economic undertakings and the improvement of people's living standards, diplomatic work will be firmly rooted and justified. Of course, the success of internal factors depends not entirely on foreign policy, but also on domestic political and economic policies to a great extent; But since what we are talking about here is the role of the external environment, we have to focus on how to maintain a peaceful and stable surrounding environment and atmosphere as much as possible. Although regional and local wars such as the Gulf War and the Kosovo War have occurred from time to time, I believe that peace and development will remain the theme of international relations for a long time to come, and a global war is likely to be avoided. It seems unlikely that there will be a war situation immediately, forcing China to give up the focus of reform, opening up and economic construction that it has been insisting on for the past two decades. This judgment is not based on a "dogmatic official view" or blind optimism about the surrounding situation and the global situation, as criticized by some analysts. On the contrary, we can find that it is based on the theoretical analysis of the overall changes in international relations at the arrival of the new century, and it is a conclusion drawn after carefully comparing the ups and downs of the respective forces of war and peace. Accordingly, the main threat to China's national security is not any foreign invasion or other wars, but whether China itself can maintain a stable, orderly and healthy development.

Russia's "internal weakness" on the Kosovo issue fully proves this point. I think one of the most profound lessons that Russia has taught us is that a country must first do its own thing well, so that it is difficult for any potential or real enemy or opponent to "take advantage of the situation"; A common sense in life is that flies only bite rotten eggs. The most fundamental destructive factor of the demise of a great country is not from external factors, but from deep-seated internal problems; A big country cannot be destroyed, and its decline often starts from the inside and decays from the root; For example, from the germination of national division, or from economic stagnation, or from political melee, or from social disorder; The situation is chaotic and self-defeating. In fact, the Russian stage in the last ten years has just experienced every scene of "national division-economic stagnation-political melee-social disorder". At present, Russia's serious "internal weakness" in resisting NATO's encroachment is essentially caused by the "civil war" without smoke.

Think about the seemingly endless intrigue between Yeltsin and the State Duma, between Yeltsin and the government, the destruction of the political atmosphere by the terrible Chechen war, the loss of Russia's national strength and the shake of its military morale, and the torture of various "shock therapy" programs on Russia's economic sick body! The twists and turns of Russia's current diplomatic strategy and policy are unpredictable, mainly because of the incompetence of Russian diplomats, but because of the changeable and chaotic domestic policies; The helplessness of Russian soldiers in the face of the indiscriminate bombing of Yugoslavia by the United States and NATO, of course, is not because the Russian Ministry of Defense lacks the desire and ability to resist, but mainly because of the serious constraints of Russia's domestic economy, the Ministry of Finance's desire for loans from the International Monetary Fund, and the inherent fear that the already fragile national economy will collapse because of its involvement in the war.

If China can learn something from Russians now, it is easy to draw a simple analogy conclusion: not only can he not be soft on any separatist forces; More importantly, politics can't be fought, society can't be chaotic, economic development can't stop, and self-reform and system construction can't be interrupted. National stability and national strength are the cornerstones of national security, and also the main sources of foreign discourse power and international influence. The fortress was breached from the inside. Without domestic security (including development and stability in all fields), there is no national security, let alone maintaining international security. In the final analysis, the biggest insecurity lies in itself rather than outside, and the most fundamental guarantee is the reform and development of the country.

Here, I want to emphasize that although there has been such a serious negative situation as the Kosovo crisis, it does not mean that the strategic ties between major powers have been completely lifted, nor does it mean that the trend of peaceful development of all countries in the world has been fundamentally reversed by the Kosovo crisis. In fact, the relationship between big countries has become more complex and subtle, and their interaction and dependence (even unequal interdependence) are also increasing. In particular, the process of economic and technological globalization has not slowed down, and global scientific and technological innovation activities are unprecedentedly active. Moreover, the most important thing is that for a long time to come, a world-wide nuclear war or a conventional world war in which all major countries are involved and confront each other may still be avoided, and countries will still seize the time to develop their own economy, science and technology and comprehensive national strength and vigorously improve people's quality of life and infrastructure. This situation is still the mainstream of the world economy and international relations, although it may often be disturbed by sudden crises like the situation in Kosovo. Obviously, it is very different from the environment in the past wars and revolutionary years. At that time, the conditions forced you not to engage in construction and grasp the economy for a long time, and you had to fight against all kinds of enemies for the survival of the nation.

The present situation is much more complicated and changes much faster than in the war years. This is why Deng Xiaoping said that the most important thing now is to do our own thing well, especially to improve our comprehensive national strength, so that we can speak well in international affairs when our strength is enhanced. China's strategists, militarists and diplomats should firmly remember Deng Xiaoping's warning. Think about it. In recent 200 years, most of China has been a period of oppression and humiliation, or a period of intense mobilization of "war and revolution". Only the past 20 years have witnessed the real decent development and construction, but what a great leap these 20 years have brought to China: China has stepped out of the shadow that its economic development momentum is on the verge of exhaustion. Its overall economic scale (GDP) has entered the top ten in the world in terms of exchange rate and surpassed Japan in terms of purchasing power parity, ranking second in the world. China people continue to achieve the biggest economic growth in human history (a country with a population of 6,543.802 billion, the economic scale has expanded at an average annual rate of 8% in the past 20 years)! Looking ahead, it goes without saying that in 100, or even in 20 years, the people of China will be able to maintain the rapid development of the past 20 years and "concentrate on economic construction", so there is every reason to expect that the per capita level will be close to the standards of moderately developed countries, and the total amount (measured by whatever standards) will rank among the "top three" in the world. By then, China will be able to greatly improve people's living standards and devote more resources to national defense modernization. Arrive? Excuse me, baking? Quot It goes without saying that China will have a decisive say in international affairs, and the establishment of a new international political and economic order is more likely to develop in the direction expected by the people of China. Before talking about profound changes in existing international relations or greater contributions to the outside world, the people of China must have a sober assessment of their own conditions and conditions. It is true that after 50 years, especially 20 years of reform and opening-up, China's comprehensive national strength has leapt to a new level, and its international status and influence have also been greatly improved. However, China is still a developing country, and its international ranking is still relatively backward in most fields, and there is still a big gap compared with the most developed countries in the world. This not only refers to "hardware", such as per capita GNP and living standard, developed road traffic, complete educational facilities and modernized information means, labor productivity and product quality of enterprises, and China's proportion in global trade and investment. It also includes the so-called "software" part, such as the innovation ability of various systems, the comprehensive quality of the service industry, the general public's understanding of the outside world and their self-promotion, and the foreign resources (including materials and investment) of the whole country. As a foreign researcher pointed out: "Software strength includes political, social and theoretical strength, and includes the following factors: (1) openness, stability, persistence and absorption of domestic political, social and economic institutional arrangements; (2) Strong cultural, political and moral appeal and cohesion; (3) theoretical guidance; (4) Strategic foresight and diplomatic skills; (5) Effective domestic and international management, including effective mobilization of domestic and international resources (especially non-military resources); (6) People with high educational level and strong cultural awareness; (7) a high standard of living. China still has a long way to go to achieve this kind of software strength. Economic and military strength cannot replace a strong political and social foundation. " Historically, contemporary China no longer has, nor can it have, the calmness of "seemingly invincible, and other mountains are dwarfed under the sky". In the heyday of the Han and Tang Dynasties. Since modern times, it has been and remains a country with close economic, social and political operations; Due to the structural transformation of the economy itself and the transformation of the whole social and political system, the consciousness of opening to the outside world is constantly expanding, and at the same time, the consciousness of nationalism (sometimes stimulated by external events into some extreme emotions) is also growing rapidly. It seems that the whole country is developing rapidly and full of vitality, but there are also many problems and troubles. A large number of new troubles have become new agenda items before the problems left over from the old system are cured, such as enterprise bankruptcy and laid-off workers, the gap between regional economies and education levels, corruption, and the so-called extremely difficult and complicated domestic governance tasks in any case. "It's hard to strike while the iron is hot." China's old saying vividly shows that our own problems have become international? Crispy? ⒏ ⒏? What happened to manganese? Spring? Throw your mother-in-law mother? Cattle? Suffering from taeniasis? ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄ ⒄? Vent? What about drifting away? Why don't you send me for a change? What is the value of squid? What's the matter with you? Do you still resist obesity? Lang Huang Qiang ∫ letter? υ Cong Xinxin? At night? What happened to mother? What happened to her? Potential? Blink? Wave emperor diving rest? What kind of media do you want? Squat shit, tooyl? Huang Huai invaded and vented? 6. Are Fijian Umbrella, Huang Qiaoyi, Fu noisy? Hey? Wave Wei Wen? Why take a shower? /P & gt；

From this measurement, the connotation of "development needs" referred to here is much richer and broader than people's usual understanding and our past propaganda. For example, from the perspective of economic development alone, the people of China have basically achieved a "well-off life". However, compared with more comprehensive standards, China needs to carry out more profound political democratization and legal system construction, and keep pace with the growth of spiritual civilization (beliefs, morality and values, etc.). ) With the promotion of material civilization, the process of social stratification will be more reasonable and smooth, and more China people will have a broader and more generous world vision. Political development, civilized development, social development and value development are all proper meanings in the category of "development". On the premise of taking economic construction as the center, the above-mentioned all-round and three-dimensional development will greatly enhance China's international status and influence in the new century, and the display of China's diplomacy will naturally have a more solid foundation. Therefore, making every effort to ensure the development of China is both the need of internal affairs and the need of diplomacy itself.

Good luck!