Although in the first half of 2007, global cross-border investment reached $5.8/kloc-0.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54%, but since the third quarter, foreign direct investment has fallen sharply. Liang, an economic affairs official of the Division of Investment, Technology and Enterprise Development of the United Nations General Assembly, told reporters that the main reason for this situation is the instability and liquidity crisis of the global capital market caused by the crisis of the US subprime mortgage market.
According to the latest statistics of the United States, it is difficult to say that the subprime mortgage crisis has been alleviated, and the credit crunch and the depreciation of the dollar continue. Except for a few countries such as China, most countries have lowered their economic growth forecasts for 2007 and 2008.
Dollar depreciation effect
According to the statistics of UNCTAD, in 2006, the global foreign direct investment was outstanding. Not only did it grow for the third consecutive year, but the growth rate reached 38%, reaching $654.38+030.6 billion, which was close to the historical record of $ 6543.8+0465.438+065.438+000 billion created in 2000, and included all developed countries, developing countries and transition economies.
However, Liang admitted that part of the increase in statistics came from the depreciation of the US dollar, because all statistics were calculated in US dollars. After the rebound of the US dollar in 2005, the US dollar was in a depreciation trend in 2006, with a depreciation of 1 1.44% against the euro and 13.6% against the British pound, which made the asset prices denominated in US dollars rise.
Another effect of the depreciation of the dollar is to stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment into the United States. In 2006, despite the poor performance of the American economy due to the weak housing market, the United States once again squeezed out Britain and became the country attracting the most foreign investment in the world with US$ 654.38+0754 billion. The EU countries with strong currency performance have become the largest "rich people" in the world, providing almost half of the world's foreign direct investment.
Due to the depreciation of the US dollar and the abundant liquidity of the global economy, the UNCTAD report describes: "The growth of global foreign direct investment flows is partly driven by the increasing corporate profits around the world, which in turn leads to the rise of stock prices, thus increasing the transaction amount of cross-border mergers and acquisitions." One evidence is that in most of M&A's huge cross-border transactions in 2006, most acquirers paid by cash and loans, rather than through the traditional share exchange model.
In 2007, the dollar continued to depreciate, especially after the subprime mortgage crisis. Although US Treasury Secretary Timothy Henry Merritt Paulson expressed support for a strong dollar policy, the exchange rate market and international organizations believe that the dollar will continue to depreciate. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the current US dollar is still overvalued 15% to 35%.
However, unlike last year, the subprime mortgage crisis triggered a credit crunch and liquidity shortage in the United States. According to the latest international capital report released by the US Treasury in August, the capital outflow from the US asset market reached $69.3 billion in August. At the same time, the instability of the capital market may also slow down the pace of multinational companies buying assets.
In the World Investment Report 2007, the sudden change of exchange rate, oil price instability and credit crunch caused by global current account imbalance are listed as the main risks that may affect the world investment trend.
China faces strong competition.
Despite the tightening of global investment, China has performed well. In UNCTAD's "World Investment Prospect Survey", China and India are tied as the most attractive investment destinations.
However, in 2006, the foreign direct investment attracted by China decreased slightly, by 4% to US$ 69 billion, which was the first decline of foreign direct investment in China since 1998.
Liang said that there is no need to worry that the amount of foreign investment attracted by China will decrease. Because this is more from the decline in financial input. In 2005, due to the large state-owned banks preparing to go public and introducing foreign strategic investment, financial mergers and acquisitions in China reached a climax, so the data in 2006 was lower than that in 2005. Despite the pressure of RMB appreciation and rising labor costs, the manufacturing industry, the most important sector to attract foreign investment in China, has been relatively stable.
Qiu Lixin, deputy director of the Foreign Investment Department of the Ministry of Commerce, also expressed optimism about China's attracting foreign investment. She said that from June to September this year, the foreign direct investment attracted by China increased by 10.9% year-on-year, especially in the service industry, with an increase of 56%.
However, the information released by the Ministry of Commerce at the same time shows that from June 5438 to September this year, the number of newly established enterprises invested by the United States in China decreased 16.4 1%, and the actual amount of foreign capital used decreased by 2.88%. The number of newly established enterprises invested in China by pre-EU 15 countries decreased by 7.69% year-on-year, and the actually used foreign capital decreased by 30.93% year-on-year.
Therefore, although China is still the developing country that attracts the most foreign investment in the world, it lags far behind other developing countries in the growth rate. In 2006, China's biggest competitor, India, attracted US$ 654.38+0.7 billion in foreign direct investment, equivalent to the sum of the previous three years. Southeast Europe and CIS countries reached $69 billion, an increase of 68%, of which Russia's increase was almost close to100%; African countries absorbed a total of 36 billion dollars, twice as much as in 2004; The flow of foreign direct investment from West Asia 14 countries also increased by 44%, reaching a record high of 60 billion US dollars.