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Event: Tesla's 2020 shareholders' meeting will be held on September 22nd Pacific Time. This is the first time Tesla has held a press conference specifically for battery technology.

L Tesla's self-built battery factory Roadrunner project in fremont (construction is nearing completion), and plans to build its own battery factories in the United States, Germany and China in the future;

Roadrunner project part information:

1) At least 400 employees work in shifts, and each shift can accommodate at most 100 workers to produce 24/7 production lines;

2) Ternary battery is the main component; Raw materials include aluminum cobalt lithium nickel oxide (NCA), titanium oxide, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, precursors of NCA or NCMO, cobalt sulfate, lithium hydroxide, manganese sulfate, nickel sulfate, etc.

L battery technology reserves increased, focusing on battery research and development.

By the beginning of 2020, Tesla has applied for more than 3,400 patents, mainly involving electrical systems, power systems, battery structures, temperature control systems, electrode key materials and other fields. Among them, there are about 400 patents for lithium batteries.

Meaning: Dry electrode technology is different from wet electrode technology. Dry electrode technology abandons the organic solvent (NMP) in wet electrode technology, and directly bonds a small amount (5%-8%) of PTFE fine powder binder with positive/negative powder, and forms a thin electrode material strip through an extruder, and then laminates the electrode material strip onto a metal foil current collector to form a finished electrode.

Can effectively reduce the cost, greatly simplify the manufacturing process of the traditional wet electrode and improve the energy density of the battery. Dry electrode technology is the key technology to optimize high nickel anode and silicon carbon cathode; It can provide strong support for the subsequent development of solid-state electrodes;

According to the research results of Professor JeffDahn of Tesla R&D team, the related papers have done detailed performance tests on cobalt-free high-nickel lithium batteries, and proposed that the improvement of the stability and performance of lithium batteries by cobalt can be weakened through the preparation process and the use of other alternative metals, thus putting forward the vision of lithium batteries getting rid of cobalt.

Tesla may use silicon nanowire material (a kind of silicon carbon negative electrode) to improve the energy density of the battery. Or cooperate with Amprius (originally founded by Professor Cui Yi of Stanford University) in the United States and adopt the carbon nanowire materials made by AMPRIUS. At present, Amprius has provided customers in Europe, America and China with high energy density lithium batteries with an energy density of 750Wh/L, and has provided 380Wh/Kg power batteries to the US Department of Energy.

On September 17, according to electrek, the battery size that Tesla may launch may be twice that of the existing 2 1700; This kind of battery is called "BiscuitTin" large cylindrical battery. In May, 2020, a Tesla patent disclosed that the tab structure of the traditional cylindrical battery cell: 1) was cancelled, so as to reduce the internal resistance, reduce the calorific value, prolong the battery life and improve the peak power of charge and discharge. 2) simplify manufacturing and reduce cost;

Like contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., Limited CTP and BYD blade battery, the core idea of this battery design is to reduce the cost, improve the integration efficiency, and improve the volume energy density and weight energy density by adopting large battery mode.

According to Tesla's patent, Jeff Dagen's team is based on NCM ternary lithium battery. The maximum number of cycles of the battery may be close to 5,000, and the mileage of the corresponding vehicle may reach 6,543.8+0,000 miles (about 6,543.8+0.6 million kilometers).

2. What is the impact of Tesla's self-built battery factory on the global competition pattern of power batteries?

Power batteries account for more than 30% of the cost of new energy vehicles; Tesla attaches great importance to and hopes to master the power battery technology. It can be said that it is an inevitable choice to ensure the safety of the supply chain and reduce costs and retain profits by building part of its own production capacity.

As for the impact on the power battery industry, we believe that independent third-party battery suppliers will still occupy the dominant position of power batteries.

1) The technical barrier of power battery is thick. Involving physical and chemical products, R&D, output, process accumulation and practical experience are quite different from vehicle R&D and manufacturing. At present, leading third-party power battery companies, such as CATL, Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung, etc. , has accumulated profound experience in the field of batteries (from consumer batteries to power batteries) and has more than 65,438+00 years of experience in research, development, production and manufacturing;

2) The competition of future power batteries mainly focuses on: product performance+cost. Its self-built batteries need to constantly improve product performance to maintain technological leadership, and at the same time need to be lower in cost than external battery manufacturers. Global lithium battery leaders such as CATL have very strong comprehensive competitiveness in technology, product quality, supply chain management and research and development. After years of rapid development, its continuous technological innovation ability, scale advantage and cost advantage are globally competitive, and it is expected to win the competition with self-built batteries of automobile enterprises.

3) From the perspective of manufacturing cost control, battery factories in China, Japan and South Korea, especially in China, are stronger in cost control. It is not excluded that the battery cost of Tesla's self-built battery factory will be higher than that of China manufacturers in the future, and some production capacity will still be outsourced.

4) The new energy vehicle market is large enough to support the development of third-party independent battery manufacturers in the future.

Third, Tesla lithium battery investment main line and concept stocks

Since the beginning of 2020, the overall PE of the plate has climbed, and in early September, the PE was about 265 times, which was at a historical high. However, from the perspective of PB, it was about 4.6 times in early September, which was in the historical median range.

Main line of investment

1) adopt electrolyte additives to improve the cycle life and capacity of the battery;

The dosage and cost of additives will increase, which is beneficial to enterprises of electrolyte additive technology. Related concept stocks include Tianci Material (6F, new lithium salt), Xinzhoubang (additive) and Shida Shenghua (solvent);

2) adopt carbon nanowire technology to improve the battery capacity;

At present, domestic silicon-carbon anode material technology reserve companies include Betray (Panasonic's core supplier, silicon anode has been shipped in batches) and Putailai (silicon anode is expected to be shipped in batches at the end of the year);

3) Suppliers of other material links:

En Jie (Tesla Maxwell supplier) is expected to become the core supplier of Tesla's self-built battery factory with its technical and cost advantages; Betray (Panasonic NCA cathode supplier, indirectly supplying Tesla); Dang Sheng technology (high nickel anode accounts for a high proportion overseas; Tesla energy storage battery supporting cathode material); Kodali (Shell supplier);

4) Upstream resource end:

Influence of cobalt resources: Low-cobalt or cobalt-free materials are the goal of Tesla technology. Judging from the annual purchase of 6000 tons of cobalt metal signed by Tesla and Glencore, ternary batteries containing cobalt will still be the mainstay in the short term.

5) Lithium battery equipment:

In the initial stage of Tesla's expansion, lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expected to take the lead in benefiting, and related stocks include Pioneer Intelligence (supplier), Wintech, and Hangke Technology.

References:

2020092 1- Zhongtai Securities-Observation on New Energy Week of Power Equipment: Prospect of Tesla Battery Day and Main Line of Investment.

202009 10- huaan securities-performance summary of new energy battery industry in 2020: the turning point of the industry is clear, and the global supply boost performance is leading.

This report is written by Ge Xiaolin (registration number: A07406 19070003), an investment consultant of Q9 Intelligent Investment Co., Ltd. The stocks involved in this report are only case studies and are not used as investment suggestions. Therefore, the operation risk is at your own risk.