In the next decade, China will still be in the stage of simultaneous acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, GDP and residents' income will continue to increase, and the state will continue to introduce various policies that are conducive to expanding domestic demand. In addition, the demand for automobiles in second-and third-tier cities and rural markets will increase, and it is expected that the automobile consumption market in China will further expand.
According to the Survey Report of China Automobile Engine and Transmission Parts Industry by China Automobile Technology Research Center, by 20 12 to 20 15, China's automobile production and ownership will exceed 25 million, and the ownership will reach1500,000.
20 14 and 1-3 months, the automobile output was 589170,000 vehicles, up 9. 16% year-on-year, among which the growth rate of passenger cars reached 9.48%, higher than that of commercial vehicles.
(2) China will gradually change from a big automobile manufacturing country to a manufacturing power.
In recent years, domestic well-known automobile enterprises with international competitiveness have gradually emerged, and the core technologies and new technologies of automobile production have gradually been mastered by domestic enterprises, and the export scale has expanded year by year. China already has the foundation to transform into a big automobile manufacturing country. In order to realize the goal of transformation, China must first form a group of large-scale and collectivized enterprises, and it is imperative to merge and reorganize, and its own brand will surely become the object of strong support from the government in the future. With the recent introduction of vehicle and auto parts support policies, the future development of the industry will focus on strengthening the technological development of independent brand enterprises; Encourage the improvement of research and development capabilities and technological innovation capabilities; Actively develop products with independent intellectual property rights and implement brand management strategy. In the future, the market share of self-owned brand automobile products is expected to gradually expand, and the technical strength will also be rapidly improved. China's automobile market will gradually change from a big automobile manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country.
③ Energy-saving, environmental protection and new energy vehicles have become the development direction of China automobiles.
In recent years, the number of cars in China has risen sharply, and the demand for resources has increased sharply, resulting in increasingly serious air pollution. Benefiting from the introduction of energy-saving and environmental protection policies, the future energy-saving and environmental protection, new energy vehicles and related parts industries will be new investment growth points and the development direction of the future automobile industry.
Under the background of existing industrial structure and energy structure, encouraging the production and consumption of low-energy and small-displacement vehicles has become an effective way to save energy and reduce emissions in the automobile industry. According to the statistics of the economic operation of the automobile industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, under the promotion policy of energy-saving vehicles, the sales volume of small-displacement passenger cars has increased very rapidly in recent years. From 20 14 to 1-3 months, the sales volume of this type of vehicle reached 3,265,900, up 5.25% year-on-year; It accounts for 67.07% of the passenger car sales market.
2011/in June, the promotion policy of energy-saving vehicles was adjusted, the promotion standard of energy-saving vehicles was increased by 8%, and the fuel consumption of promoted vehicles was adjusted from 6.9 liters per 100 kilometers to an average of 6.3 liters. 20 12 in may, the executive meeting of the State Council discussed and adopted the 12th five-year plan of the national basic public service system, which included 6 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less. The promotion policy of energy-saving vehicles has played a positive role in promoting the continuous progress of energy-saving technologies. The upgrading of automobile products has been accelerated, and low-energy and small-displacement vehicles have become one of the development trends of the industry.
④ The adjustment of industrial structure will be further deepened.
At present, the structural problems of China's automobile industry are outstanding, and the adjustment of industrial structure will be further deepened in the future. We should vigorously promote cross-regional mergers and acquisitions and further adjust the industrial organization structure; It is necessary to increase the proportion of small-displacement vehicles, vigorously develop energy-saving and new-energy vehicles, and further optimize the product structure; It is necessary to greatly increase the localization ratio of core components to further promote the coordinated development of components and vehicles and enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry; It is necessary to further adjust the urban-rural dual structure of automobile consumption and vigorously explore the rural automobile market.
⑤ The export of automobile industry will be further expanded.
With the improvement of the quality of China's automobile products and the diversification of export channels, China's automobile exports will continue to grow in the future, and vehicle exports will become a new growth point for independent brand enterprises; In 20 12 years, Chery, which ranked first in automobile export for 10 years, exported184,800 vehicles, up 16.26% year-on-year.
In 20 10, the cumulative export of automobile products in China exceeded $50 billion for the first time. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in 20 1 1 year, 801400,000 vehicles were exported, up by 49.50% year-on-year, up by 269,000 vehicles year-on-year, reaching a record high, accounting for 60.80% of the automobile growth in the same period, which has become the main force driving the growth of automobile sales this year. In 20 12, China's automobile exports exceeded one million vehicles for the first time, reaching 105.6 1 10,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 29.70%. In 20 13, China exported 872,400 vehicles, down year-on-year, with a total export value of $71309 million, up 5.2% year-on-year. During 20 14 and 1-2 months, China exported130,700 vehicles, down 10.2% year-on-year, and the total export volume was 18 1 1 billion USD. At the same time, with the global industrial transfer, China will become an important spare parts purchasing base for multinational automobile enterprises in the future, and the export of spare parts products will be further expanded.
⑥ China's automobile market is playing an increasingly prominent role in the world.
With the annual growth of automobile production and sales in China, the position of China automobile industry in the global automobile market has changed substantially, and the output of multinational companies in China accounts for an increasing proportion of its total output; China has become an important source and growth place of its profits, which will have a great impact on the strategic decision-making mechanism of multinational companies in China. Multinational companies will inject more China elements into product research and development, and will also develop new automobile products specifically for the China market in the future.
Problems and prospects of automobile industry development;
As a large country with a large population, it is necessary to develop the automobile industry.
On the one hand, this is a technology-intensive and labor-intensive industry. If it develops well, there are many benefits: solving the employment problem; Improve the overall technical level; Drive the all-round development of the automobile industry chain; GDP growth and so on. But how to develop this industry specifically is very complicated. As far as the industrial chain is concerned, technology is very important for the early production of good cars, which requires high government investment and the emergence of a large number of high-end talents.
The first step is raw materials. Including steel, magnesium, aluminum, alloys, plastics and organic materials, all of which involve various basic industries. Only when these are done well can there be something behind.
The second step is to manufacture spare parts, electronic parts and other accessories. These things are difficult. There is a phenomenon that can be used for reference, that is, the problem of domestic production of imported cars. Take Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi as examples. The prices of Mercedes-Benz domestic C and E have not dropped much compared with those imported. The reason is that the domestic rate is not high enough, that is to say, there are not many domestic C-class and E-class cars. Because the quality of domestic parts can not meet the requirements of German headquarters, they can only be imported, and the import tariff of parts is relatively low. However, according to government regulations, once the total value of imported parts exceeds 60% of the value of the whole vehicle (this figure is an impression), the imported parts are taxed according to the import tariff rate of the whole vehicle, and the price of the finally produced domestic car will inevitably not change too much compared with the imported car. Looking at BMW and Audi, A4, A6 and 3 series are imported luxury models with early localization, and the localization rate is relatively high. However, there is a problem. These cars have many minor problems. Taken together, these three brands can easily draw the conclusion that the quality of domestic spare parts can't keep up. Finally, let's look at many foreign brands. The high-tech and high-end products of general enterprises are not made in China. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi's S-Class, 7 Series, A8, all kinds of off-road vehicles and sports cars, including Volvo's S80, can't be made in China. I prefer to produce it in my own country and then ship it out, even at the expense of various expensive taxes and fees in the exporting country. These are all projects that will eat into the company's profits. Will the management of such a large group not understand this? Why? Ensure quality and signs! On the other hand, these successful car companies, which manufacture and sell cars in China, are durable and have first-class quality. One of the important reasons is that they have quality suppliers.
Third, the spare parts are complete, that is, how the automobile manufacturing enterprises build their own cars. What do they rely on for development? Sell cars! The more you sell, the better the development of the enterprise and the more funds you have, and you can build better cars in the future. How can cars sell well? Nothing more than three points: 1, cheap; 2, good performance; 3, complete functions and convenient use; 4. Beautiful appearance. It is not impossible to do all three, but there must be a limit. You can't buy a car that looks like a Lexus, runs like a BMW and is as comfortable as S600 at the price of QQ. The choice of manufacturers must be the best balance of these factors. How can it be cheap? Cost control, including production and manufacturing costs (production process control, multi-step cost increase, but no step is of poor quality; The salary of producers is too expensive, so if there are fewer people, they will quit; ), management expenses (how to do the most with the least number of people, and what kind of salary is the most appropriate ...), sales expenses (how to spend the least money, spend the least time, hire the least salespeople, and get the most sales results ... You can't just put up a billboard on the road and someone will buy a car, can you? What makes a man? He didn't steal the money. Even if he did, it would take time and energy, right? )。 How to build a car and make it run fast? This is a big technical problem. I didn't teach you to swim. Think about why BMW Z4(3.0 displacement) runs faster than Mercedes-Benz SLK350(3.5 displacement). Understand? I don't understand anyway. How many functions are there, easy to use and practical? What car is comfortable to drive? I really don't understand this, but here you are, driving a Fukang and a Mercedes. As for how to do it, we have to ask the technical experts of two manufacturers. How to look good so that you can show off with your friends and family? This is an aesthetic problem, and there are different opinions. I don't know anything about this, but probably no one will think that Alto is better than Audi. Beautiful appearance is designed by excellent designers! What car can I use? Apart from the function, it is estimated that no one wants to go to the repair shop and coffee regularly, right? There are other factors, such as fuel consumption, brand, manufacturer's publicity, etc. These are small problems, but they also play a big role in many cases.
In addition to market factors, the government should also intervene in these things, so I won't say this. Anyway, it's not working well now, I think.
Restriction problem:
From the starting point, the restriction policy is to reduce road congestion and improve air quality, but the government should not be stupid enough to say that this means is used to curb the development of the automobile industry. What kind of tax source is it? How can the tax revenue be reduced if the country wants to build and officials want to be corrupt? ! Now the GDP growth rate is slowing down, the automobile trade is at least five figures, and a sky-high car can have several yachts. 100 Mercedes-Benz is not a billion GDP? How many cars does Mercedes sell in China every year? In addition, there are more Mercedes-Benz cars with 1 10,000 or more. What other brands are there? Therefore, restrictions are not intended to curb the automobile market. Is it actually suppressed? Some people think there is, because they can't make the best use of it, so they simply don't buy it and take a taxi! But I don't think so. The above idea is the idea of people who have no money to buy a car, or who only have money to buy a car. What if you have enough money to buy two cars? Will you buy another car compared with the trivial parking fee? Nowadays, the polarization between the rich and the poor is increasing. People who can't afford a car may never buy a car, even if it is unlimited. People who buy cars must have a certain source of income. They will think: Why not buy a used car? Yes, that's even richer: I have a Mercedes, and now I can't stand it every day. I might as well buy another BMW for fun, because there is plenty of money anyway! -And vice versa! So even if it is restricted, it is estimated that there will be more cars on the street soon, and there will be traffic jams in the end.
Secondly, what about government procurement? Those ghosts drive Audi A6 every day and have a banquet. Are you afraid that they will not drive one day? The country always has a way to solve the "difficulties" for these people!
Most of these two factors can offset the inhibitory effect of the policy.
One more thing, don't forget, the purchase restriction is only in Beijing. Will it be restricted elsewhere? You don't know, I don't know, only the government knows.
In fact, it is a very difficult problem to really see how the automobile market in China will develop. There are too many factors. If there is a clue, we might as well analyze it from the relationship between demand and supply. No matter what kind of things, no matter what price, as long as demand is strong and supply exceeds demand, it is inevitable that the market will compete for development. Even if the market is illegal, we must follow this law. Why do you think the drug trade has been repeatedly banned? What's more, the advantages of automobile industry outweigh the disadvantages? What factors affect demand, how to affect supply, and how to affect supply? The more comprehensive and in-depth consideration, the closer to the truth of the matter, but this truth can only be close and difficult to touch.
If you want to collect papers, I hope my opinion will help you, but you still need a lot of information. If it is purely thinking and discussion, welcome to discuss with * * * *. ★
In addition, most people believe that it is not the car itself that can really inhibit or slow down the development of the automobile industry, but the construction of other public transport facilities, such as the subway. In an extreme case, if you buy a car just for walking, suddenly one day your city subway can take you anywhere you want, will you buy a car? Of course I won't. I have no spare money, and I don't want to buy a car and put it there just for depreciation, endless parking fees and various taxes. But in that case, it will only hurt the fragile domestic automobile industry, and those cars that have been included in luxury brands and the enterprises that own them will still survive.
Say a few last words. If you really like this industry and really have this passion, then go without hesitation. This is an aspect that China needs to revitalize very much. Throughout the world, all countries with large automobile groups are powerful countries. The United States, Germany and Japan are basically a three-legged situation, and these three countries just constitute the world's three major economies or economic centers, among which Germany, BMW and Volkswagen are the strongest. Toyota in Japan has always been the first in the world in terms of group performance, and they also have Honda and Nissan. Although the three major American groups, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, are all at a loss, the US government will not let them go bankrupt easily. The thin camel is bigger than the horse. Before Toyota, GM was the overlord of the global automobile industry, ranking first in the global top 500 industries for many years. Now China's automobile industry has just started. Compared with them, it can be said that there is no technical force at all. When many experts predict that the automobile enterprises in China will undergo a period of adjustment in the future, including mergers and acquisitions between enterprises, which will bring brand and brand integration, and then the integration of production lines. So the future is still very big, but the road of national industry is still very long and far away, and it may be very difficult. I wonder if I can see the pattern of China, Japan, Germany and the United States in my lifetime.
The above is purely a personal opinion, I hope it will help you!
The prospect of the automobile industry is still optimistic.
According to a recent data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the automobile industry continued to maintain the same high growth as last year in the first quarter of this year. Moreover, judging from the listed companies that have published annual reports in the two cities this year, except for Tianjin Automobile, Jinbei Automobile and Shandong Panther, the performance of other listed automobile companies has increased to a certain extent, and what's more, the performance has increased by more than 50%, such as Dongfeng Motor and jiangling motors. However, can we assert that the prospects of the automobile industry are very optimistic? The answer is yes, mainly for the following reasons:
First of all, with the rapid economic growth in China, people's living standards began to enter a well-off level. When household appliances have been fully popularized, the focus of residents' consumption will shift to big houses and cars. It is under this consumption trend that the automobile industry maintained a fairly high growth rate last year and early this year. Moreover, this consumption trend will definitely accelerate in the next few years, which has laid a very good foundation for the development of the automobile industry.
Secondly, national policies encourage and support the development of the automobile industry. At the beginning of last year, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China revealed that the consumption tax on car purchase is expected to be lowered by 30%. In August, many media reported that the automobile scrapping policy would be greatly adjusted. At the beginning of September, the director of the State Planning Commission put the promotion of automobiles and automobile consumption at the top of the five major consumption, and then banks and enterprises launched automobile consumption loans one after another. Looking back now, these benefits have basically begun to be realized. More importantly, the state now vigorously encourages the merger and reorganization of the automobile industry, and clearly puts forward the key support for the development of FAW, SAIC and SAIC. Now there are rumors that Tianjin Automobile is seeking the merger and acquisition of FAW. With the implementation of these policies and the strong alliance and structural optimization of the automobile industry, it is just around the corner for the domestic automobile industry to form economies of scale and strong anti-risk ability.
Finally, the incentive function after joining WTO. Speaking of WTO, it seems that the automobile industry will be the biggest impact after China's entry into WTO, but we don't think so. As for the impact of China's entry into WTO on automobile enterprises, we believe that it will make automobile enterprises develop faster and mature faster, just as China's household appliances enterprises faced the impact of foreign goods more than ten years ago. We can see that last year, in order to cope with the WTO, China automobile enterprises stepped up their efforts in market development and innovation. GM Sail, Tianqi's Li Xia 2000, Volkswagen's Jie Jun, Changan Suzuki's Antelope Century Star, and Shenlong's Picasso appeared one after another. According to statistics, the new models launched by major domestic automobile manufacturers last year were almost the sum of the past, which is the magic of competition. And don't forget, there is a powerful foreign company standing behind any big automobile manufacturer in China. In addition, after joining the WTO, China will be more deeply and quickly integrated into the global economic integration. At the same time, more updated technologies and management concepts will be introduced. Judging from the styles introduced by various enterprises this time, there are many mainstream models in the international market. It can be said with certainty that China's entry into WTO will bring not only challenges but also opportunities to the domestic automobile industry. I believe that with the full activation of the domestic consumer market, the whole industry will face broad development space.
Therefore, we believe that after China's entry into WTO, China's automobile industry will usher in a very fast development period, and the industry prospect can still remain optimistic. You can pay attention to Tianjin Auto, jiangling motors Auto and Shanghai Auto.
Does the automobile industry have a development prospect in the next few years? -There are prospects for development. Reason: 1 The domestic automobile market has great potential, and the passenger car market will continue to expand in the next decade. China will still be in the stage of simultaneous acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, GDP and residents' income will continue to increase, and the state will continue to introduce various policies that are conducive to expanding domestic demand. ...
What is the current situation and development trend of China automobile industry? First, the automobile industry has begun to take shape, with domestic middle and low gears as the mainstay. Since the 1990s, China's automobile output has achieved two breakthroughs, the first one was 1992, which broke through the million-vehicle mark. But since the second half of 1993, it has become the main force to control the flow. ...
What is the development trend of the automobile industry in the next five years? Generally speaking, the development trend of the automobile industry in the next five years should be towards branding, internationalization and collectivization! In the future, the competition between automobile industries will be very fierce! Therefore, as a China native, I support our country's independent automobile brand!
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What is the development trend of the automobile industry today? According to statistics, there should be 15 or 6 car companies last year, and there are 25 or 6 this year, and some of them have not yet started statistics. One market for minivans is small, while the other market is gradually shrinking. The development of minivans is also different, but the change is not great. From the perspective of trucks, the growth of cars now is not monolithic. ...
What is the future development prospect of China automobile industry? Problems and prospects of automobile industry development: As a big country with a large population, it is necessary to develop automobile industry. On the one hand, it is a technology-intensive and labor-intensive industry, which has many benefits when developed well. ...
What is the future development direction of the automobile industry? Hello, the future development direction of the automobile industry is modernization, electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing. I hope it will help you, and I hope it will be adopted!
Will the automobile industry develop smoothly in the next few years? -:Of course. ...
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The changing trend of the automobile industry in the next few years-:Hello: The development trend of the automobile will gradually change people's consumption concept, from the more elegant the better to the more practical the better. With the crazy rise of oil price and the gradual decrease of resources such as steel, the advantages and values of small cars are well known and accepted by more and more people. As the sales volume increases, the demand gradually decreases, and price reduction will be a marketing road that all manufacturers must take. The production and sales rate is running at a high level, and the cooperation between manufacturers presents a win-win situation. In the next few years, we will focus on developing environmentally friendly cars! Participate in Baidu! Wish you success!