This is a general consensus, that is, NPC and CPPCC will set the economic growth target of 20 15 at 7% in their government work reports next year. For ordinary investors, it is of little significance to stick to the decimal fluctuation of GDP. Just to be clear: the economy will maintain a certain growth rate next year, which is not only to ensure employment, but also to stabilize the economic system. The preparatory work for government investment planning has been done sufficiently, and it is unlikely that accidents will occur.

The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference has made it clear that the three strategic priorities of investment and construction next year are: "Belt and Road", coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Large-scale infrastructure is still the highlight, and railway construction and interconnection are the biggest highlights.

Investment in fixed assets is estimated to be equivalent to this year's scale, and there is no need to raise prices. By the second quarter of next year, the downward trend of real estate investment will slow down, because the base of this year has also dropped sharply since the second quarter. The biggest uncertainty of economic growth this year will be greatly weakened next year.

2. The house price will be the most tangled next year.

20 14 house prices are not entangled, one-sided and bearish. Of course, the core reason is that the Federal Reserve has gradually withdrawn from quantitative easing, which has changed domestic housing price expectations.

This expectation will change after this year 10. In that month, the Federal Reserve stopped buying bonds, while the RMB exchange rate remained quite stable and there was no expected capital outflow. The atmosphere in the real estate market has eased.

The biggest uncertainty of China real estate 20 15 is the interest rate increase of the US dollar. To be sure, it is inevitable that hot money will flow back to the United States, but what is uncertain is the quantity, speed and impact on domestic assets.

What will happen in a high probability: housing prices in first-tier cities are stable, second-tier cities are weak, and housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will fall seriously.

In the coming year, a considerable number of small and medium-sized developers will be dumped, and real estate enterprises will conduct major mergers and acquisitions. Merger and acquisition will be the main means to resolve the risks in the real estate industry in the coming year.

The real estate policy will move from completely loosening to rescuing the market, depending on the severity of the real estate decline. Relief measures include financial means and administrative means, with financial means as the main means and administrative means as the supplement.

The rescue measures at the national level are based on the absence of economic systemic risks. To be sure, the country has reserved enough policy tools, and the situation of real estate collapse is basically impossible.

There is no suspense in the stock market.

With the economic transformation of China, as a leading indicator, that is, confidence in the success of China's economic transformation, the slow bull in the stock market can be expected.

The understanding of slow cattle needs to be viewed from a larger macro depth: in 2007, the stock market fell from the high point of 6 100, which is a normal adjustment. However, the financial crisis in the United States changed the process of this adjustment, and the distorted operation taken by the China administration in response to the financial crisis prolonged the length of the bear market. Now, the US economy is recovering strongly, the US dollar monetary policy is normalized, and China's distortion operation is terminated. When the stock market enters a recovery, it will make up for the gains it should have in the past seven years. How much will this increase be? Some refer to small and medium-sized board and growth enterprise market.

20 14 is the year of slow cattle awakening, and 20 15 will continue this trend. The pace of issuing new shares will be faster, and the IPO registration system will be liberalized sometime in the second half of next year. It is not ruled out that due to the passion of funds, slow cattle will become mad cattle, and increasing the supply of new shares will be an important tool to prevent mad cattle from appearing.

There are only three situations that will kill the slow cow: first, unpredictable changes in the international situation; 2. The RMB unexpectedly depreciated sharply against the US dollar; Third, the slow cow becomes a mad cow, the market will be completed quickly, and then it will enter a big shock. The first two cases are small probability and not easy to happen. The latter situation is more likely to happen.

4. The funds will be more relaxed.

Next year's funds will definitely be looser than this year's, just as this year is looser than last year's, and loose funds are the trend.

The completion of US dollar interest rate hike and RMB appreciation has given the Bank of China the conditions to loosen the currency. There is no question of reducing interest rates and RRR next year, only the question of how many times.

Squeeze shadow banking, break the rigid redemption of wealth management products and trust products, and drive funds into risky assets. There is this momentum in policy, but how is it actually done? It's hard to say.

On the positive side, the clearing of local debts will be completed next year, and the bottomless black hole for local governments to absorb gold will be blocked. The government belongs to the government and the market belongs to the market. However, the scale of government investment is still huge next year, and there are many PPP projects in local governments, and the overall crowding-out effect on funds still exists.

Therefore, it is not necessarily realistic to expect a sharp drop in risk-free returns next year. Can only say that it is better than this year.

It is estimated that the financing difficulties of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises will not be solved in a short time, and we can only hope that the IPO registration system can be partially alleviated.

After this year's big cleaning, speculation in gold has been basically eliminated. Because the advantages of real estate no longer exist, the large-scale money speculation movement has lost its basic conditions and can only honestly return to private lending grassroots finance, which is beneficial to the development of Internet finance.

5. RMB will not depreciate.

Remember one thing: RMB depreciation, real estate crash, financial system collapse and hyperinflation are not only economic issues, but also political issues. If they can't show up, they will be dangerous.

With reference to the recent devaluation of the Russian ruble, is it just an economic problem? Of course not. All major economic issues are political issues.

The next step of RMB depreciation is real estate collapse, and the next step of real estate collapse is financial system collapse, which is economic logic. Therefore, the stability of RMB exchange rate is the premise of China's economic stability, which should not be taken lightly.

The RMB appreciates by 5% every year. If we want to depreciate, 5% must be the limit. After this limit, the central bank will definitely intervene. It is not ruled out that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate violently at a certain point, but there is no pressure to depreciate sharply.

Not much to say, just think about this: China's economy still has a growth rate of 7%, and the domestic RMB interest rate still maintains a considerable advantage compared with other currencies. In other words, overseas funds can still make money in China, and earn much more than their own countries. Why did you run away?

Moreover, China still has a surplus with developed countries in Europe and America. As for emerging economies, especially neighboring countries, don't pursue trade surplus, which is not in line with the internationalization strategy of RMB. It is impossible to export commodities and currency to them at the same time. This is the new normal of our foreign trade. Moreover, these smaller economies have nothing to do with the ambition of a strong RMB.

6. Foreign trade has entered a new normal.

If you think that China needs to continue the old road of the past 30 years and promote export growth through RMB depreciation, it means that the old thinking software is too old and needs to be uninstalled and reinstalled.

Look at the description of the new normal of foreign trade by the Central Economic Work Conference not long ago: the low-cost comparative advantage has passed, the driving force of factor scale has weakened, economic growth will rely more on the quality of human capital and technological progress, and new comparative advantages must be cultivated. "High-level introduction and large-scale going out happen at the same time."

Why do some enterprises always want to set up factories in China and recruit some cheap labor to produce cheap goods for export? If you can't recruit cheap labor in China, can't you set up these factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and India?

The most difficult thing for China at present is not employment, but high-quality growth. It's only a matter of time before you export RMB overseas to make money. It's better to leave early than late. Don't always look at the poor export of the United States, you have to look at how other people's capital in the world makes money. China has come this far, which is the new situation of China's foreign trade.

Therefore, don't think that the central government has set up a number of "free trade zones" to radiate to the surrounding areas through the "Belt and Road" just for infrastructure. This understanding is too low-end The "Belt and Road Free Trade Zone" is a national strategy under the new situation of foreign trade, a new type of opening up and active foreign trade, and its significance cannot be underestimated.

Next year is the first year of the construction of the "Free Trade Zone" and the "Belt and Road", and there will definitely be some wonderful things.

7. The focus of urbanization has quietly shifted.

There is only urbanization in the world, and there is no so-called urbanization. China emphasized that urbanization is to solve the disease of big cities through planning. However, urbanization is a natural historical process and cannot be completely planned by the government. Planning can also be done, it must conform to economic laws, and leaders can't come whenever they want. Building houses everywhere in the name of urbanization in recent years can be said to be a waste of resources, and urbanization has taken a detour.

The three major strategies to be implemented next year are the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the "Belt and Road" construction. What is this concept? This is the concept of urban agglomeration: the urban agglomeration around Beijing and Tianjin, the urban agglomeration along the Yangtze River with Shanghai as the leader, and the construction of key cities along the "Belt and Road" line. It is unrealistic and uneconomical to build a city by overwhelming flowers and spreading cakes. China's per capita resources are not much.

Only by understanding the key points of urbanization in the future can we see clearly where the future industry and commerce will be concentrated, where the population will flow, where the opportunities will be, and where the real estate demand will be concentrated. Do real estate investment or general investment, do not understand this general trend, is it aimless?

8. The US dollar interest rate hike stirs up the world.

At the just-concluded FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in June 5438+February, the forward-looking guidelines have been revised, and the monetary policy stance has changed from maintaining low interest rates for a long time to "patient" normalization. The position has changed, and there is no dispute about the US dollar raising interest rates. Just the difference between the second quarter and the third quarter of next year.

As expected, it triggered a large position in global asset allocation, and the decline of gold and emerging market currencies began last year. Recently, major currencies such as crude oil, industrial products, euro and Japanese yen, and currencies of emerging economies such as the ruble have all ushered in a new round of decline.

The expectation of the appreciation of the US dollar is strengthened by the continuous return of the US dollar from the world. The return of these currencies to the United States has brought abundant liquidity to the United States, made its economy stronger and further pushed up its inflation level. A new round of asset bubbles in the United States has entered the starting line, especially the real estate that triggered the last round of financial crisis. In this way, the US dollar interest rate hike will not be completed at one time, but will enter an interest rate increase channel.

There is no doubt that gold and oil have only a short chance for some time. But other resources need to be reconsidered, and the key factor is China.

Where US dollar capital is withdrawn, especially from resource-based products and resource-based countries, strong RMB capital must enter. You may have seen China on the page. This is a strategic opportunity period for RMB internationalization, and it is also a strategic opportunity period for RMB to compete for the right to speak on commodities.

Don't ask, "Can you win?" If you can't win, you must win. Sooner or later, you have to do this!