Source: China Paper Download Center [08-1113: 59: 00] Editor: cw2 1 12549.
Abstract: At present, China's real estate development enterprises generally have the characteristics of "small, scattered and poor". Real estate development only pays attention to project development, not management, and even less to risk management. Weak awareness of risk management, lack of risk management institutions and single means of risk management make many risk factors in real estate projects unable to be effectively controlled, leading to the failure of real estate projects. In order to avoid and reduce the influence of risk factors on the project, the related contents of comprehensive risk management of real estate development projects are seriously discussed in order to provide some references for effectively solving the risks in the operation of real estate development projects. ?
Keywords: comprehensive risk management; Real estate; Development; Project?
China Library Classification Number: C93 Document Identification Number: A Document Number:1672-3198 (2008) 08-0075-02.
1 comprehensive risk management method for real estate development projects?
Total risk management method is a concrete means to implement risk management process, and the establishment of risk management method system is helpful to the concrete implementation of each process. After years of development, the methods of project risk management are more mature and diversified, which makes it possible to comprehensively analyze all risks of real estate development projects. The risk management method system of real estate development projects is like a method library. Summarize the risk management methods in each process, compare the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and find out the scope of application in risk management of real estate development projects. In project risk management, effective methods can be quickly selected for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis according to the characteristics of each stage. ?
In the framework of comprehensive risk management, the target system is the core, and all personnel, processes and methods must be formulated and implemented around the target of risk management; Organizational system is the foundation, which ensures the smooth progress of risk management from the organizational system and cultivates the atmosphere of risk management for all staff; Process system is the key. Risks in the whole process of real estate development projects should be identified, analyzed, handled and monitored according to the risk management process. Methodology system is a means to promote all risk management. The four systems complement each other, forming a relatively complete comprehensive risk management system for real estate projects. The specific relationship of each system (as shown in figure 1). ?
2. What is the overall risk management process of real estate development projects?
2. 1 Risk identification of real estate development projects?
Risk identification of real estate development projects is the basis of risk management. It is mainly used to determine the source of risk and the process of risk classification. Risk identification is based on the work breakdown of real estate development projects, that is, risk identification is carried out for different stages of real estate development projects. The risk factors in different stages are different, and the basis of risk classification and grouping is also different. ?
2.2 Risk assessment of real estate development projects?
Risk assessment of real estate development projects is a process of estimating the probability and possible consequences of risks in real estate development projects through qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks, ranking risks according to high, medium and low risks, compiling a risk list, and finally conducting special risk research according to the degree of risks. It is worth noting that the risk analysis scope of real estate development project schedule, cost and quality is wider than that of construction projects, so the possible risks should be analyzed from the characteristics of project feasibility study, project planning and design, construction and operation. ?
2.3 Real estate development project risk monitoring?
Risk monitoring of real estate development projects is the process of revising and perfecting the implementation of risk response plan, and it is also the guarantee for the effective implementation of risk management of real estate development projects. Risk monitoring should not only take risk response measures according to the risk response plan, but also revise the results of risk identification and evaluation and the risk response plan with the deepening of the project, that is, the cyclical process of risk identification, evaluation, response, monitoring and re-identification. ?
3. How to deal with the overall risk of real estate development projects?
3. 1 risk aversion?
Risk avoidance is a measure to abandon, suspend or change the conditions of development projects according to risk prediction and evaluation, and fundamentally eliminate potential risks. Usually, when the possibility of potential threats is too great, or the possible loss consequences are too serious, and there are no other risk management measures available, risk avoidance is often taken. Risk aversion can be roughly divided into two ways: one is to give up or terminate an activity that may cause risk loss; The other is to change the activity plan or change the way of working. It can be seen that avoiding risks is a negative preventive measure, and some of them are forced. Because avoiding risks can avoid losses, but at the same time it also loses the opportunity to make profits. Therefore, when choosing risk response measures, it is best to use risk avoidance as a preventive measure carefully. ?
3.2 Risk control?
Risk control refers to measures taken to reduce the probability and degree of risk loss before, during and after risk events. According to the purpose of risk control, risk control can be divided into risk prevention and risk suppression. The former aims to reduce the probability of risk loss; The latter aims to reduce the degree of risk loss. Risk control begins with taking preventive measures to eliminate and reduce potential risks and reduce the frequency and degree of losses. Therefore, this is a positive risk management measure. Because of the low cost and good benefit of risk control measures, there will be no adverse sequelae. Therefore, risk control measures should be given priority to all kinds of risks in the process of real estate development. 3.3 Risk transfer?
Risk transfer refers to the measures taken by developers to consciously transfer the risks they cannot or are unwilling to bear to other economic units during the development process. Risk transfer is different from risk avoidance. It is not to give up or stop project development, but to transfer the legal responsibility for possible losses caused by risks in development activities to others. Risk transfer is also different from risk control. Different from risk control, it does not directly adjust risk factors to reduce the probability and degree of risk loss, but indirectly reduces its own loss by shifting the wind surface. ?
The main ways of risk transfer are contract, guarantee, futures and insurance. Contract forms include fixed lump sum contract, cost-reward contract, unit price contract, etc. Insurance includes property insurance, liability insurance and personal insurance. Various contracts have different effects on the risks of developers and contractors. Developers can adopt appropriate contract forms according to the project situation and transfer risks reasonably, as shown in Table 1. ?
Risk transfer is generally adopted in the following situations: (1) The loss between the transferor and the transferee (risk receiver) of the risk can be clearly calculated and divided, otherwise the risk transfer between the two parties cannot be carried out; (2) The transferee is able and willing to take appropriate risks; (3) The cost of risk transfer is lower than other risk management measures. ?
3.4 Risk retention?
Risk retention is the loss caused by real estate developers taking risks themselves. In real estate development, for some inevitable risks that are difficult to control and transfer, or may gain greater benefits from taking risks, risk retention measures are often taken without affecting the fundamental interests and overall interests of developers. Risk retention can be divided into two categories: planned risk retention and unplanned risk retention. Planned risk retention is active risk retention, and its specific measures are: (l) self-protection; (2) exclusive insurance; (3) loss amortization; (4) loan compensation; (5) deductible insurance. Unplanned detention is passive detention, which is handled by risk emergency reserve. Risk retention measures should be combined with risk control measures. When implementing risk retention measures, we should try our best to ensure that major project risks have been insured or risk control plans have been implemented. We should also compare the risk retention strategy with the insurance strategy in order to make decisions that are more conducive to saving risk management costs. ?
3.5 Risk utilization?
Risk utilization refers to the behavior that developers take advantage of people's fear of risk and pursuit of safety to participate in development activities with real risks, rely on their own solid risk management work, foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, and seek to maximize their own interests. Risk utilization is a higher level of risk management, which requires higher management level of risk managers. They must have rich project experience, skilled skills and high adaptability to emergencies in order to analyze the availability and value of risks and make effective use of them. For example, under the current conditions of land marketization, business land must be obtained by bidding, auction and hanging. However, some shrewd real estate developers have found another way, starting with the first-level development of land, and laying the foundation for obtaining the second-level development right by striving for the development right of a certain piece of land. Because if the first-level land development is carried out, the relevant information of the land will be known in advance to a certain extent. There are inherent advantages in listing and trading in the secondary land market, and the probability of obtaining secondary development rights is greater. The so-called "curve land acquisition" is to make good use of policy risks. ?
4. What problems should be paid attention to in the overall risk response of real estate development projects?
4. 1 Should the risk response plan be targeted?
The formulation of risk response plan is the key link of risk management. Due to the uniqueness and uniqueness of the project, the existing model cannot be copied when formulating countermeasures. We must put forward targeted solutions according to the project's own conditions and the results of project risk identification and evaluation. At the same time, we must overcome the fluky psychology when formulating the response plan, and do not take effective preventive measures against risks in order to reduce expenses. ?
4.2 Pay attention to the combination of management methods?
Whether it is risk control, risk transfer or risk retention, each risk response measure has its limitations. In the face of complex and changeable risks, we should pay attention to the combination of various methods, formulate various schemes according to the specific conditions of the project, and sort them by priority to avoid being caught off guard because of the ineffectiveness of a single scheme. ?
4.3 Pay attention to the economy of management?
In order to avoid or reduce risks and get higher returns, we must pay a certain price. However, based on the principle of economy, it is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness and economy of the measures. For example, when dealing with unpredictable risks, insurance or risk retention can often be adopted, but which method is more?
Economical and effective, we can compare the cost of insurance with the expenditure of risk reserve, so as to choose more economical and effective measures. ?
Reference materials?
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〔2〕? Chen, Zhang Xin. Total risk management of real estate development projects [J]. Journal of Southwest University of Science and Technology, 2006, (3).
〔3〕? Chen zu Analysis on the management difficulties of real estate development projects [J]. Sichuan Building Materials, 2006, (2).
〔4〕? Deng Tiansheng, Xu. Design of Risk Management System for Real Estate Development Project [J]. Enterprise Technology Development, 2006, (1 1)