In the 20th century, especially in the 50 years after World War II, the social and economic conditions of capitalist countries have changed. A series of new situations, new phenomena and new features have emerged. Some western scholars call it "new capitalism". Many people at home and abroad are puzzled that in the 100 years after Marx, capitalism not only did not die out, but also did not "die out" as Lenin said, and gained new development. The development of developed capitalism in productivity and science and technology in the past 50 years has exceeded the sum of the development of capitalism in the past hundreds of years. It shows that it still has the vitality to continue to exist and develop. We must face and affirm this historical fact. In the face of this fact, we need to study: what are the new situations and new features of capitalist countries, and how are they formed; Whether the nature and internal contradictions of capitalism have changed; Whether the historical law that capitalism will eventually turn to socialism still exists; Whether we should affirm the basic principles and scientific conclusions of Marxism about the emergence, development and demise of capitalism.

The New Changes of Contemporary Capitalism and Its Roots

The new changes in capitalist countries are mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, unlike the spontaneous development of capitalist economy in the past, the bourgeoisie and its government constantly and consciously adjust themselves in the development of productive forces, economic system and operation, upgrading of industrial structure and development of production relations. This is not only to meet the needs of the development of productive forces, but also to maximize profits. Under the pressure of the emergence and development of the socialist system and the competition with capitalism, in order to maintain their own survival and development, they have to make some improvements and improvements, including learning from some effective practices of socialism.

Second, under the trend of accelerating the development of productivity and science and technology, the developed capitalist countries have seen an unprecedented new scientific and technological revolution on the basis of their existing high productivity and scientific and technological development, and their productivity and labor productivity have been greatly improved. From the different stages of capitalist development, in the era of free competition capitalism, the average annual growth rate of industry is about 2%. During the period of 100 after entering monopoly capitalism, the average annual growth rate of industry was about 3%. In the 1950s and 1960s under state monopoly capitalism, the average annual growth rate reached 6%. During the period of 1953- 1972, the GDP of developed capitalist countries increased by nearly 5% annually. With the improvement of productivity and labor productivity, the social wealth of developed capitalist countries has also increased rapidly.

Third, the industrial structure is constantly changing and upgrading to adapt to the progress of science and technology and the change of demand structure, especially the high-tech industrial sector is developing rapidly. Marx's scientific prediction that the long-term backwardness of agriculture in capitalist countries will be fundamentally reversed has become a reality. During the period of 1950- 1977, the agricultural labor productivity in the United States increased at an average annual rate of 5? 6%, exceeding the processing industry. It is precisely because of the substantial increase in agricultural labor productivity that the proportion of agricultural labor in developed countries such as the United States and Britain has dropped to 3%. The proportion of industrial and agricultural material production departments in the national economy has decreased to only 1/3. The increasing proportion of finance, commerce and service industry is the result and performance of the substantial increase of labor productivity in industrial and agricultural sectors. At present, the industrial structure has changed to informationization and high technology. In line with this, the scientific and technological knowledge and cultural level of workers have been greatly improved, and they have developed into mental workers, knowledge workers and white-collar workers.

Fourth, the economic system and operation are different from the spontaneous development and operation in the era of free market economy. Instead, we should learn from some socialist practices, introduce planning factors (referring to social unified planning) into the market economy, implement government regulation, and combine market regulation with planned regulation. That is, combine the invisible hand with the visible hand, and guide the invisible hand with the visible hand. Government is no longer just a "night watchman". The government mainly uses financial, financial and other economic means to regulate the operation of capitalist economy, so that the capitalist economic crisis tends to ease.

Fifth, with the development of productive forces, the continuous improvement of labor productivity and the huge growth of social wealth, capitalist countries have material conditions, which can shorten the working hours of workers, improve their material and cultural living standards and improve people's living environment while increasing profits, thus alleviating class contradictions. Capitalist countries also attach importance to the relationship between efficiency and fairness, establish a universal and relatively perfect social security system, and levy excessive progressive taxes and high-rate inheritance taxes. The social and political status of the working class has improved. Some capitalist countries absorb workers to participate in management. Some also expressly stipulate that the board of directors and the board of supervisors of joint-stock companies should have a certain proportion of employee representatives to participate. Under this historical and social background, the labor movement, which flourished in the19th century, gradually fell into a low tide after World War II.

Sixth, general monopoly capitalism develops into state monopoly capitalism and then into international monopoly capitalism. The continuous expansion of the international market has opened up a wide range of international trade space. Monopoly capital crosses national boundaries, invests in all parts of the world and establishes multinational companies. Economic internationalization has reached a new stage, showing the trend of economic globalization. The emergence and development of new changes and new features of capitalism have their roots and objective laws.

Historical trend of capitalist development

Judging from the historical process of the development of human society, it is impossible to replace the old social form with a new one in a short time. Moreover, the more backward the productive forces are, the longer the transition will take. From primitive society to slave society, it has gone through a transitional period of thousands or even tens of thousands of years. Judging from the process of feudalism in western Europe, the transition from slavery to feudalism began around the first century A.D. and was not completed until around the 10 century A.D.. It has gone through a period of about 1000 years. If we count the initial stage of the Roman Empire's demise and its entry into feudal society in the fifth century, it also experienced a transition period of 500 years. Capitalist factors originated in the Mediterranean coast in the14th century, and16th century changed from a feudal society to a capitalist society, which also experienced a transitional period of more than 200 years. If the British bourgeois revolution was completed in the17th century, it would take about 300 years.

It will also take a long historical period for the major capitalist countries in the world to turn to socialism. The new changes and development of capitalism do not mean that capitalism will always be revived and young. It just means that a more solid material and social foundation is being prepared for the transition to socialism. At present, although capitalism has a new look, its essence has not fundamentally changed. The foundation of capitalist economic system is still private ownership, although a new model has emerged in the realization form of private ownership; The relationship between capital rule and exploitation of wage labor is still the most basic relationship, although the contradiction between labor and capital has eased; The essence of capitalist production is still surplus value production, although the working hours of workers have been shortened and working conditions have improved; The basic contradiction of capitalism still exists, and the periodic economic crisis still breaks out many times, but the manifestations are different and the degree of damage is weakened. However, the collapse of the American stock market 1987, known as "Black Monday", and a series of financial storms and crises since the 1990s also shocked capitalism. The polarization between the rich and the poor in capitalist countries is still serious. The law of unbalanced development of capitalism is still at work. Don't talk about capitalism, only see a few developed countries. There are over 180 capitalist countries and regions in the world, most of which are backward and poor. Some capitalist countries in Africa, such as Congo and Zaire, have been trapped in poverty and backwardness for a long time. Contradictions between developed capitalist countries and backward countries and between developed capitalist countries have not been eliminated, and there are often struggles and struggles.

Because the essence and internal contradictions of capitalism, including its basic contradictions, have not fundamentally changed, with the continuous development of production socialization, the objective requirements and trends of changing capitalist economic relations will continue to play a role. At present, the new phenomena and characteristics in the development of capitalism should be investigated from two levels. First, to meet the needs of highly developed productive forces and highly socialized production, it is necessary and inevitable to adjust and develop the realization form and institutional model of capitalist production relations accordingly; Second, in the self-adjustment and development of capitalism, some new economic factors that sublate and deny capitalism itself are also developing. It is the change and development of these two levels that provide a new space and stage for the further development of productive forces. Judging from the historical trend of capitalist development, these two levels of change are not alienated from socialism, but close to socialism. This can be discussed from two aspects. On the one hand, some new forms of realization of capitalist relations of production and new forms of capital organization, such as the new development of joint-stock companies, monopoly capital organizations, state monopoly capitalism and multinational corporations. , is the economic factor of "sublating" capitalism. This is a favorable ladder to socialism. Marx saw the development of joint-stock system in capitalist society and pointed out that joint-stock company is the sublation of capital as private property within the scope of capitalist mode of production itself. It should be regarded as a transitional form from capitalist mode of production to joint mode of production (referring to socialist mode of production-leader). In the 100 years after Marx, joint-stock companies have made new development and new forms of capital organization have emerged constantly. They are all "transitional forms" of turning to socialism. Because it is much more convenient and easier for large joint-stock companies and monopoly capital, especially state monopoly capital, to turn to social ownership than the 10,000 petty bourgeoisie in Qian Qian, Marx regarded joint-stock companies as a "passive sublation" of capitalist private property, because as a new form of capital organization, it would not directly touch the capitalist system itself. However, the transformation of private capital into social capital provides social and economic conditions for socialism.

On the other hand, Marx paid special attention to the emergence and development of new socio-economic factors in the capitalist mode of production. Mainly refers to the emergence of the workers' cooperative factory he saw. He called this new economic factor to prove that workers can set up their own factories without the participation of capitalists and "actively sublate" capitalism. Active sublation means that the negative factors of the capitalist system itself are playing a role. Marx pointed out: "The workers' own cooperative factory is the first gap in the old form. "

In the 20th century, especially in the last 50 years, the economic factors of negative sublation and positive sublation in the capitalist mode of production have developed greatly. From the positive aspect, not only the factory of workers' cooperatives has been further developed and expanded, but also the farmers' cooperatives have been developed rapidly. In addition, the universal implementation and continuous improvement of social security system and welfare system, and the collection of high-rate progressive tax and inheritance tax are the restrictions on the expansion of private capital and private property, and also a sublation of capitalist private possession-negative or positive sublation. The emergence and development of new economic factors also have a dual role. First, it is conducive to easing its internal contradictions, including class contradictions; The second is to definitely deny private capitalism. Marx once clearly pointed out: "I summarize the historical trend of production as follows: it' produces its own negation by controlling the inevitability of natural change'; It itself has created a new economic system factor ... In fact, capitalist ownership based on collective production can only be transformed into social ownership. "

In the new 100 year of the 2 1 century, developed capitalism will adapt to the needs of new productive forces and highly socialized production, and there will be new changes and characteristics in economic relations, economic systems and operations. The "new economic system factor" will continue to develop and expand. Will continue to sublate and weaken capitalist private ownership itself. When the factors of the new economic system have accumulated to a certain scale, there are two ways to turn to socialism: one is to gain political power through the working class revolution and establish a socialist system by using the factors of the new economic system. Second, after a long period of natural development and the continuous accumulation of local qualitative changes, it gradually turned to socialism. Just like the changes and replacement of social and economic systems in the past.

Today, drastic changes have taken place in the former socialist countries of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and the socialist movement has suffered great setbacks. Some people have a "crisis of faith" and do not believe or doubt that socialism will eventually replace the historical law of capitalism. Some western works put forward the proposition of the transition from socialism to capitalism. However, some knowledgeable scholars in the west continue to put forward and study the historical fate of capitalism. Lester Thurlow, a professor of economics at MIT and a famous contemporary economist, devoted a lot of space to studying and attacking the serious defects of contemporary capitalism in the book The Future of Capitalism published by 1996. He pointed out: "The business cycle is intrinsic to capitalism, just as earthquakes are to the geology of the earth. Capitalism has always had a business cycle phenomenon, and there will be one in the future. " He predicted that capitalism "will sooner or later make the global financial market experience a big crash similar to the Japanese stock market crash in the 1990s or equivalent to the American stock market crash in the 1930s." He believes that capitalist recession "is a part of capitalism, and they cannot be eliminated". When discussing the disadvantages of capitalism, the author also pointed out: "This is not surprising. These problems have existed since capitalism was born. They are part of the system. They have led to the emergence of socialism, capitalism and the social welfare state system. " Thurlow did not discuss the problem of capitalism turning to socialism from the perspective of historical materialism and the law of social development, but from the perspective that the inherent contradictions and disadvantages of capitalism would lead to socialism and * * * productism. He was not a supporter of socialism. This is the limitation of his theory. But he saw that capitalism is not a beautiful and eternal system, but will lead to a new social system. This understanding of the historical trend of capitalist development is worthy of recognition.

(Author: China Renmin University)

In the 20th century, especially in the 50 years after World War II, the social and economic conditions of capitalist countries have changed. A series of new situations, new phenomena and new features have emerged. Some western scholars call it "new capitalism". Many people at home and abroad are puzzled that in the 100 years after Marx, capitalism not only did not die out, but also did not "die out" as Lenin said, and gained new development. The development of developed capitalism in productivity and science and technology in the past 50 years has exceeded the sum of the development of capitalism in the past hundreds of years. It shows that it still has the vitality to continue to exist and develop. We must face and affirm this historical fact. In the face of this fact, we need to study: what are the new situations and new features of capitalist countries, and how are they formed; Whether the nature and internal contradictions of capitalism have changed; Whether the historical law that capitalism will eventually turn to socialism still exists; Whether we should affirm the basic principles and scientific conclusions of Marxism about the emergence, development and demise of capitalism.

The New Changes of Contemporary Capitalism and Its Roots

The new changes in capitalist countries are mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, unlike the spontaneous development of capitalist economy in the past, the bourgeoisie and its government constantly and consciously adjust themselves in the development of productive forces, economic system and operation, upgrading of industrial structure and development of production relations. This is not only to meet the needs of the development of productive forces, but also to maximize profits. Under the pressure of the emergence and development of the socialist system and the competition with capitalism, in order to maintain their own survival and development, they have to make some improvements and improvements, including learning from some effective practices of socialism.

Second, under the trend of accelerating the development of productivity and science and technology, the developed capitalist countries have seen an unprecedented new scientific and technological revolution on the basis of their existing high productivity and scientific and technological development, and their productivity and labor productivity have been greatly improved. From the different stages of capitalist development, in the era of free competition capitalism, the average annual growth rate of industry is about 2%. During the period of 100 after entering monopoly capitalism, the average annual growth rate of industry was about 3%. In the 1950s and 1960s under state monopoly capitalism, the average annual growth rate reached 6%. During the period of 1953- 1972, the GDP of developed capitalist countries increased by nearly 5% annually. With the improvement of productivity and labor productivity, the social wealth of developed capitalist countries has also increased rapidly.

Third, the industrial structure is constantly changing and upgrading to adapt to the progress of science and technology and the change of demand structure, especially the high-tech industrial sector is developing rapidly. Marx's scientific prediction that the long-term backwardness of agriculture in capitalist countries will be fundamentally reversed has become a reality. During the period of 1950- 1977, the agricultural labor productivity in the United States increased at an average annual rate of 5? 6%, exceeding the processing industry. It is precisely because of the substantial increase in agricultural labor productivity that the proportion of agricultural labor in developed countries such as the United States and Britain has dropped to 3%. The proportion of industrial and agricultural material production departments in the national economy has decreased to only 1/3. The increasing proportion of finance, commerce and service industry is the result and performance of the substantial increase of labor productivity in industrial and agricultural sectors. At present, the industrial structure has changed to informationization and high technology. In line with this, the scientific and technological knowledge and cultural level of workers have been greatly improved, and they have developed into mental workers, knowledge workers and white-collar workers.

Fourth, the economic system and operation are different from the spontaneous development and operation in the era of free market economy. Instead, we should learn from some socialist practices, introduce planning factors (referring to social unified planning) into the market economy, implement government regulation, and combine market regulation with planned regulation. That is, combine the invisible hand with the visible hand, and guide the invisible hand with the visible hand. Government is no longer just a "night watchman". The government mainly uses financial, financial and other economic means to regulate the operation of capitalist economy, so that the capitalist economic crisis tends to ease.

Fifth, with the development of productive forces, the continuous improvement of labor productivity and the huge growth of social wealth, capitalist countries have material conditions, which can shorten the working hours of workers, improve their material and cultural living standards and improve people's living environment while increasing profits, thus alleviating class contradictions. Capitalist countries also attach importance to the relationship between efficiency and fairness, establish a universal and relatively perfect social security system, and levy excessive progressive taxes and high-rate inheritance taxes. The social and political status of the working class has improved. Some capitalist countries absorb workers to participate in management. Some also expressly stipulate that the board of directors and the board of supervisors of joint-stock companies should have a certain proportion of employee representatives to participate. Under this historical and social background, the labor movement, which flourished in the19th century, gradually fell into a low tide after World War II.

Sixth, general monopoly capitalism develops into state monopoly capitalism and then into international monopoly capitalism. The continuous expansion of the international market has opened up a wide range of international trade space. Monopoly capital crosses national boundaries, invests in all parts of the world and establishes multinational companies. Economic internationalization has reached a new stage, showing the trend of economic globalization. The emergence and development of new changes and new features of capitalism have their roots and objective laws.

Historical trend of capitalist development

Judging from the historical process of the development of human society, it is impossible to replace the old social form with a new one in a short time. Moreover, the more backward the productive forces are, the longer the transition will take. From primitive society to slave society, it has gone through a transitional period of thousands or even tens of thousands of years. Judging from the process of feudalism in western Europe, the transition from slavery to feudalism began around the first century A.D. and was not completed until around the 10 century A.D.. It has gone through a period of about 1000 years. If we count the initial stage of the Roman Empire's demise and its entry into feudal society in the fifth century, it also experienced a transition period of 500 years. Capitalist factors originated in the Mediterranean coast in the14th century, and16th century changed from a feudal society to a capitalist society, which also experienced a transitional period of more than 200 years. If the British bourgeois revolution was completed in the17th century, it would take about 300 years.

It will also take a long historical period for the major capitalist countries in the world to turn to socialism. The new changes and development of capitalism do not mean that capitalism will always be revived and young. It just means that a more solid material and social foundation is being prepared for the transition to socialism. At present, although capitalism has a new look, its essence has not fundamentally changed. The foundation of capitalist economic system is still private ownership, although a new model has emerged in the realization form of private ownership; The relationship between capital rule and exploitation of wage labor is still the most basic relationship, although the contradiction between labor and capital has eased; The essence of capitalist production is still surplus value production, although the working hours of workers have been shortened and working conditions have improved; The basic contradiction of capitalism still exists, and the periodic economic crisis still breaks out many times, but the manifestations are different and the degree of damage is weakened. However, the collapse of the American stock market 1987, known as "Black Monday", and a series of financial storms and crises since the 1990s also shocked capitalism. The polarization between the rich and the poor in capitalist countries is still serious. The law of unbalanced development of capitalism is still at work. Don't talk about capitalism, only see a few developed countries. There are over 180 capitalist countries and regions in the world, most of which are backward and poor. Some capitalist countries in Africa, such as Congo and Zaire, have been trapped in poverty and backwardness for a long time. Contradictions between developed capitalist countries and backward countries and between developed capitalist countries have not been eliminated, and there are often struggles and struggles.

Because the essence and internal contradictions of capitalism, including its basic contradictions, have not fundamentally changed, with the continuous development of production socialization, the objective requirements and trends of changing capitalist economic relations will continue to play a role. At present, the new phenomena and characteristics in the development of capitalism should be investigated from two levels. First, to meet the needs of highly developed productive forces and highly socialized production, it is necessary and inevitable to adjust and develop the realization form and institutional model of capitalist production relations accordingly; Second, in the self-adjustment and development of capitalism, some new economic factors that sublate and deny capitalism itself are also developing. It is the change and development of these two levels that provide a new space and stage for the further development of productive forces. Judging from the historical trend of capitalist development, these two levels of change are not alienated from socialism, but close to socialism. This can be discussed from two aspects. On the one hand, some new forms of realization of capitalist relations of production and new forms of capital organization, such as the new development of joint-stock companies, monopoly capital organizations, state monopoly capitalism and multinational corporations. , is the economic factor of "sublating" capitalism. This is a favorable ladder to socialism. Marx saw the development of joint-stock system in capitalist society and pointed out that joint-stock company is the sublation of capital as private property within the scope of capitalist mode of production itself. It should be regarded as a transitional form from capitalist mode of production to joint mode of production (referring to socialist mode of production-leader). In the 100 years after Marx, joint-stock companies have made new development and new forms of capital organization have emerged constantly. They are all "transitional forms" of turning to socialism. Because it is much more convenient and easier for large joint-stock companies and monopoly capital, especially state monopoly capital, to turn to social ownership than the 10,000 petty bourgeoisie in Qian Qian, Marx regarded joint-stock companies as a "passive sublation" of capitalist private property, because as a new form of capital organization, it would not directly touch the capitalist system itself. However, the transformation of private capital into social capital provides social and economic conditions for socialism.

On the other hand, Marx paid special attention to the emergence and development of new socio-economic factors in the capitalist mode of production. Mainly refers to the emergence of the workers' cooperative factory he saw. He called this new economic factor to prove that workers can set up their own factories without the participation of capitalists and "actively sublate" capitalism. Active sublation means that the negative factors of the capitalist system itself are playing a role. Marx pointed out: "The workers' own cooperative factory is the first gap in the old form. "

In the 20th century, especially in the last 50 years, the economic factors of negative sublation and positive sublation in the capitalist mode of production have developed greatly. From the positive aspect, not only the factory of workers' cooperatives has been further developed and expanded, but also the farmers' cooperatives have been developed rapidly. In addition, the universal implementation and continuous improvement of social security system and welfare system, and the collection of high-rate progressive tax and inheritance tax are the restrictions on the expansion of private capital and private property, and also a sublation of capitalist private possession-negative or positive sublation. The emergence and development of new economic factors also have a dual role. First, it is conducive to easing its internal contradictions, including class contradictions; The second is to definitely deny private capitalism. Marx once clearly pointed out: "I summarize the historical trend of production as follows: it' produces its own negation by controlling the inevitability of natural change'; It itself has created a new economic system factor ... In fact, capitalist ownership based on collective production can only be transformed into social ownership. "

In the new 100 year of the 2 1 century, developed capitalism will adapt to the needs of new productive forces and highly socialized production, and there will be new changes and characteristics in economic relations, economic systems and operations. The "new economic system factor" will continue to develop and expand. Will continue to sublate and weaken capitalist private ownership itself. When the factors of the new economic system have accumulated to a certain scale, there are two ways to turn to socialism: one is to gain political power through the working class revolution and establish a socialist system by using the factors of the new economic system. Second, after a long period of natural development and the continuous accumulation of local qualitative changes, it gradually turned to socialism. Just like the changes and replacement of social and economic systems in the past.

Today, drastic changes have taken place in the former socialist countries of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and the socialist movement has suffered great setbacks. Some people have a "crisis of faith" and do not believe or doubt that socialism will eventually replace the historical law of capitalism. Some western works put forward the proposition of the transition from socialism to capitalism. However, some knowledgeable scholars in the west continue to put forward and study the historical fate of capitalism. Lester Thurlow, a professor of economics at MIT and a famous contemporary economist, devoted a lot of space to studying and attacking the serious defects of contemporary capitalism in the book The Future of Capitalism published by 1996. He pointed out: "The business cycle is intrinsic to capitalism, just as earthquakes are to the geology of the earth. Capitalism has always had a business cycle phenomenon, and there will be one in the future. " He predicted that capitalism "will sooner or later make the global financial market experience a big crash similar to the Japanese stock market crash in the 1990s or equivalent to the American stock market crash in the 1930s." He believes that capitalist recession "is a part of capitalism, and they cannot be eliminated". When discussing the disadvantages of capitalism, the author also pointed out: "This is not surprising. These problems have existed since capitalism was born. They are part of the system. They have led to the emergence of socialism, capitalism and the social welfare state system. " Thurlow did not discuss the problem of capitalism turning to socialism from the perspective of historical materialism and the law of social development, but from the perspective that the inherent contradictions and disadvantages of capitalism would lead to socialism and * * * productism. He was not a supporter of socialism. This is the limitation of his theory. But he saw that capitalism is not a beautiful and eternal system, but will lead to a new social system. This understanding of the historical trend of capitalist development is worthy of recognition.