Author: Liu Zhensheng [column]

Mediaandu (www.mediaundo.com) June 5438+1October 21June 5438+0: 12, 2007.

According to the news released by the Media Management Institute of Renmin University of China after sampling statistics of local newspapers and newspaper groups, the turnover of domestic newspaper groups fell sharply in the first half of this year, and the actual advertising revenue mostly fell 10%-30%, many of which fell by more than 40%, with an average decline of more than15%; A number of newspaper groups and newspapers that used to operate well suffered losses, and the situation was extremely grim. Faced with such a difficult situation, did the boss in the front line of the newspaper really feel the real crisis? What do they think of this, what measures have been taken or are they going to take, and have they considered major strategic changes? The author recently visited Wu Haimin, president of Jinghua Times. Wu Haimin earlier put forward the view that "the winter of metropolis daily has arrived ahead of schedule", which was confirmed by the facts of the past few months. This time, he further judged that the winter of the newspaper industry would be quite long.

Is the winter of newspaper industry really coming?

On August 26th, Beiqing Media announced its half-year results as of the end of June this year. The net profit in the first half of this year was only 6.5438+0.7 million yuan, down 99.7% from 66.309 million yuan in the same period last year. Operating income totaled 368.3 million yuan, down 28.32% from 5,654.380+38 million yuan in the same period last year. At the same time, the stock price has been falling all the way, and Beiqing Media, which has just successfully listed, has fallen to the bottom without warning. The decline in the performance of Beiqing Media is not a case. According to the monitoring of HC Media Research Center, after March this year, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of domestic newspaper advertisements decreased month by month, and the growth rate in June was less than 3%. In the first half of the year, the national newspaper advertising volume only increased by 7.08% on average; In previous years, the average growth rate of advertising revenue of newspapers and magazines was as high as 30%. Worryingly, this downward trend has been widely reflected in several most influential newspapers in China, such as Guangzhou Daily and Xinmin Evening News. Professor Yu Guoming, director of the Institute of Public Opinion of Renmin University of China, said that only one or two of the top ten newspapers in the past were exceptions, and the others all experienced negative growth. The newspaper industry in China has encountered a difficult situation that has never been encountered in the past twenty years. The general reaction of people in the industry is that the winter of newspaper industry has really arrived ahead of schedule.

Jinghua Times: Concerns behind "Prominence"

When many old newspapers encounter serious business difficulties, what is the business situation of Jinghua Times, which is located in the same city as Beijing Youth Daily and belongs to Morning Post and Metropolis Daily? The evaluation of insiders is "excellent". President Wu Haimin of Jinghua Times said that he had heard such words.

In the highly competitive Beijing newspaper market, the main competitors of Jinghua Times are Beijing Youth Daily and Beijing Evening News. Since its publication in May, 20001,this newspaper has maintained a sustained high-speed growth, and it has still achieved a "rise against the market" in the current newspaper crisis. Especially when Beijing Youth Daily began to decline and Beijing Evening News was weak, the market performance of Jinghua Times was quite eye-catching, and it was really "outstanding". In 2004, Jinghua Times achieved an advertising turnover of 780 million yuan and a profit after tax of more than 20 million yuan. The annual advertising turnover in 2005 is expected to exceed 654.38 billion yuan. In the first half of this year, the advertising revenue of Jinghua Times increased by more than 20% year-on-year, increased by more than 30% in 6543810-April, decreased in May-June, and began to increase substantially in July-August-September. In August, the advertising business amount was 7,654,380 yuan+0,980 yuan; In September, the monthly advertising turnover exceeded 654.38 billion yuan, setting a new record of advertising revenue in a single month since the founding of Jinghua Times. When the national paper media are "falling", how to explain the "rising against the market" of Jinghua Times? Wu Haimin believes that the Beijing Times is an example and does not represent the vitality of the newspaper market. Instead, it reflects the decline of the whole market. Because of "depression", it can be described as "against the market" and because of "cold winter", it can be described as "outstanding" Therefore, don't be blindly optimistic about this "anti-market". There is actually a profound market crisis behind "One Branch". In fact, compared with the rapid development in previous years, the growth rate of Jinghua Times has also been slowed down by the market. The market structure of newspaper industry has changed greatly. The market has shrunk, the increment has decreased, and the "cake" has become smaller.

However, Wu Haimin pointed out that although the "cake" of newspaper advertisements has generally shrunk, the share of newspapers will not decrease in the same proportion; The smaller the "cake", the greater the income gap, some more, some less. This is the inevitable result of market supply and demand change, product substitution and Matthew effect. In the past, advertising was like spreading "pepper noodles" to take care of newspapers. Things are different now. Advertisers pay more and more attention to the effect of advertising, pay attention to accurate media selection, pay attention to accurate advertising, and pay attention to less but better. They will only put advertisements in the most powerful media and newspapers with the largest circulation. In this way, it is inevitable that "the poorer the poor, the richer the rich."

Why do advertisers send more advertisements to Jinghua Times? Wu Haimin specifically analyzed that, first, Jinghua Times has the largest circulation in the morning post market, which not only has absolute advantages in retail, but also has a considerable subscription ratio; Second, advertising works best. Compared with the evening paper, it is ahead in publishing time and has more young readers. Third, advertising is cost-effective. Compared with Beijing Youth Daily and Beijing Evening News, the advertising price of Jinghua Times is relatively cheap. Three years ago, Wu Haimin judged that there would be two kinds of mainstream newspapers in a stage of Beijing newspaper market, and this trend was very obvious. Except for real estate advertisements, which are still relatively concentrated in Beijing Youth Daily, other advertisers basically put in one morning and one night. Beijing Times is strong in the morning and Beijing Evening News is strong in the evening. The two major media shared a large part of this "cake" sooner or later.

Wu Haimin believes that the current situation proves that the development strategy of Jinghua Times is correct and successful. In recent years, Jinghua Times insists on sustained high-speed growth, financial "micro-win" policy and increasing investment, striving for and occupying a larger market share, and striving to become the strategic goal of the first newspaper market in Beijing, firmly believing that the winner is the king, and one company dominates the competition of urban newspapers. In addition, there are two variables in the market: first, the Beijing Youth Daily has fallen too fast, which makes the advantage of Jinghua Times in the morning post market more obvious; Second, the legal evening news has a strong impact on Beijing Evening News, weakening its traditional advantages in the newspaper market. This situation will help Jinghua Times achieve the strategic goal of being the first in Beijing market.

2005: A Strong Signal of Newspaper Decline

Wu Haimin analyzed that this year's domestic newspaper business crisis, including the serious decline in the benefits of several traditional strong paper media, has two major reasons-direct reasons and deep reasons. People often only see the direct reasons, that is, the state has issued a series of macro-control policies, cleaned up medical advertisements, rectified the real estate industry, declined pillar industries such as automobiles and communications, the weak and indifferent macroeconomic situation, and the decline in economic benefits and consumption index, which led to the continuous shrinking of advertising "cakes" invested by traditional media. However, this is definitely not the whole problem, not the essence of the problem. It is worth pondering that the total amount of advertisements nationwide has not decreased, and it is even increasing at a rate of 10% or more. Why has the paper advertisement shrunk? In fact, the most profound and fundamental reason for the decrease in print media advertising volume is that the new media represented by the Internet has caused a serious impact on traditional media. Wu Haimin threw this sentence as a boss in the front line of the media.

In the second quarter of 2005, the financial report showed that the advertising revenues of Sina, Netease and Sohu all showed sustained and substantial growth. Among them, Netease's advertising service revenue in the second quarter was 6.5 million US dollars (53.4 million yuan), which was 30.8% higher than that of 4.9 million US dollars (40.9 million yuan) in the same period last year and 5.5 million US dollars (45.3 million yuan) in the previous quarter. ; Sina's advertising revenue in the second quarter increased by 365,438+0% compared with the same period of last year, reaching $20.4 million; Sohu's advertising revenue was $6.5438+0.7 million, an increase of 27% over the same period of last year and an increase of 654.38+0.4% over the previous quarter. Compared with the same period of last year, the advertising revenue of the three major portals increased by about 30%, which is comparable to the scene when the paper media was most prosperous. In sharp contrast to the triumphant online media, many paper media are experiencing an unprecedented ice age at this time.

Wu Haimin believes that the new media phalanx with the network as the main force and outdoor advertisements, mobile TV, building advertisements, city broadcasting and elevator advertisements have risen rapidly. It has carved up and eroded the advertising share of traditional media, posing a severe challenge to traditional media. This is the most profound and fundamental reason why traditional media advertisements have plunged sharply.

In recent years, the popularity of new media represented by the Internet has attracted a large number of young people and robbed a large number of readers with high quality, high consumption power and potential. According to the 16th Statistical Report on Internet Development in China released by China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) on July 2 1, as of June 30 this year, the total number of Internet users in China exceeded 1 billion, reaching 1.3 billion, an increase of 1.4% over the same period last year. From 1994 to 2005, after years of development and accumulation, the new media network finally reached its "critical point" in 2005. Correspondingly, the traditional media such as paper media also appeared the opposite historical "inflection point" at this time, sending out a strong fading signal. The winter of newspaper industry, or the ice age of newspaper industry, will be very long, even forever. Wu Haimin told reporters his most important judgment on the current media market structure. He believes that the prospect of the newspaper industry is not optimistic, and any luck and sitcom are naive and naive. It is ignorant and ridiculous for anyone to sit back and relax about the rise of new media and turn a blind eye to its influence.

Wu Haimin pointed out that in fact, the newspaper industry has sent out five fading signals in the past decade, and these signals are all related to the rapid development of online media in this decade:

The first signal: the decline of national newspapers is mainly manifested in the sharp decline in the circulation of national newspapers. This happens just when a number of portals begin to be established and compete for the audience's attention. The massive information of portal websites has replaced the news of national newspapers.

The second signal: all kinds of industry newspapers and professional newspapers are going downhill. This will also happen when various service websites are established and the professional information of portal websites is increasingly rich.

The third signal: the evening newspapers in various places are weak, and most of them are published in the morning. This situation has to be said to be related to the timely release of online news and the accelerated pace of audience reading news. In front of the internet, any evening news seems so late.

The fourth signal: A large number of cutting-edge newspapers have been frustrated, and there have been cases of applauding, such as Shanghai Oriental Morning Post and China Business News, Guangdong Southern Sports, Beijing Beijing News and Bao Jing. The news concept of these newspapers is not advanced, and the quality of the newspapers is not excellent. However, at this stage, due to the rise of new media such as the Internet and the massive loss of audiences, the market capacity of traditional newspapers began to shrink, and the market increment even decreased.

The fifth signal: Metropolis Daily has also begun to enter the winter.

The development of new media has changed from slow to fast, the lineup of new media has changed from small to large, the structure of media market has changed from quantitative to qualitative, and various factors have come together, which makes the signal of the decline of this traditional newspaper industry in 2005 so strong that many journalists are caught off guard.

"Spring" of New Media

An important sign of the decline of traditional media is the loss of a large number of young readers. Wu Haimin pointed out that more and more young people don't read newspapers or even watch TV. Even middle-aged readers began to spend much less time reading newspapers than surfing the Internet. If a generation of young people no longer rely on newspapers for news, it is hard to imagine that their next generation will return to newspapers. This is a worldwide topic, and it is also the reason for the decline of the traditional newspaper industry in the world. Wu Haimin admits that he spends half an hour reading more than a dozen newspapers every day, and often spends more than three hours using the Internet.

Why is the network showing such great charm more and more? Wu Haimin believes that this is determined by the characteristics of this new media: first, at any time; Second, anywhere; 3. Any equipment; 4. Any service. Newspapers can only be published once a day, while online news is published 24 hours a day; As long as you have a laptop, you can view real-time news and needed information anywhere. Desktop computers, notebook computers, mobile phones and other devices can surf the Internet freely; The network can also meet all aspects of service needs, and can deeply participate, interact and provide personalized services. With the development of the second generation network 2.0 technology, it provides a broad display platform for blogs and podcasts. Now, there is a blog every second. Every blog can publish works, comments and provide information through blogs. If it is a podcast, it still provides audio and video programs and information. In the Internet age, the distribution and acquisition of information is no longer so single, and the collection of information is no longer so monopolized. Everyone is the receiver of information, and everyone can be the collector and publisher of information. New media has immediacy in time and infinity in space, which is incomparable to traditional media.

Based on the tracking and deep understanding of new technologies and new media represented by the Internet, Wu Haimin believes that there are several key years that should attract the attention of journalists.

1.2006. There will be several major moves in the development of new media next year, one is the listing of 3G mobile phones, the other is the promotion of network TV, the third is the launch of digital TV, and the fourth is the emergence of more blogs and podcasts. This will be a year in which China's network communication technology is more mature, communication means are more abundant and communication equipment is more popular. In particular, the introduction of 3G mobile phones represents the popularity of network terminal equipment and the convenience of information sending and receiving, which is subversive to the traditional way of information dissemination, and the appearance of blogs and podcasts is also subversive to the way of information collection of traditional media.

2. In 2008. 2008 will be a year in which online media will completely dominate. There are two important reasons for this. First, on the technical level, after 2-3 years of accumulation and promotion, some new network technologies and devices will be more mature and popular in 2008, and the number of blogs and podcasts will increase exponentially. Secondly, in terms of timing, the 2008 Olympic Games was held in Beijing, which provided a rare opportunity for the use and display of new media such as the Internet. At least, there will be a fundamental change in the way sports news is disseminated and received. People will no longer be satisfied with getting news from newspapers and TV, nor will they be satisfied with understanding what happened the day before by reading newspapers the next day. No longer satisfied with just watching TV sports news programs to understand the real situation of the game; Nor will they be satisfied with the subjective, sloppy and one-sided sports reports of just a few hundred journalists who have obtained interview certificates. People will get the latest reports from journalists all over the world through the Internet, and people will also get three-dimensional and all-round game information in time, instantly and at any time through blogs and podcasts. There will also be thousands of bloggers and podcasts uploading what they have seen, heard, felt and thought on the field through multimedia mobile phones. Therefore, 2008 is definitely a landmark year for traditional media and emerging media in China. The result of this game and contest is not difficult to imagine. Therefore, 2008 will be a year for readers to stay away from traditional media, and it will also be a year for readers to find the great charm of new media and get satisfaction after staying away from traditional media.

3. In 2009. Wu Haimin pointed out in particular that from the obvious advantages and great influence of new media in the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, from the natural decline of Beijing's urban economy and the natural decline of advertisements after the Olympic Games, by 2009, traditional media will fall into a deep trough. By then, there will be more advertising selection networks and a large number of traditional media closed down. We don't care whether Wu Haimin's judgment on the development trend of new media and several historical turning points is accurate, but the impact of the rapid development of new media on traditional newspaper industry deserves deep consideration by all traditional media people, so as to study and come up with strategic solutions as soon as possible in the long run.

"Three Steps" of Jinghua Times and Media Innovation

As the media boss, since you have realized the severe challenges and bright prospects of new media, have you taken or will take countermeasures? Wu Haimin said that the Beijing Times has not made any substantive arrangements for network development at present, but he revealed to reporters the strategic development goals set by the Beijing Times. He said that the strategic development goal of Jinghua Times will be divided into three steps:

1, main business: bigger and stronger Jinghua Times, bigger market share, better brand;

2. Expand business: acquire some newspapers to form a strong position of content providers;

3. Emerging business in the future: cross-media development, mainly new media such as the Internet.

Wu Haimin believes that when the newspaper industry shrinks, it is also the time for the Jinghua Times to become bigger and stronger rapidly. This is not inconsistent with the judgment that new media will eventually replace traditional media. The decline of the newspaper industry must be a process of accelerating the reshuffle of the market, accelerating the integration of the newspaper industry, and eliminating the fittest, so that the originally very scattered newspaper resources can be quickly concentrated in a few powerful newspapers. Although the distribution market and advertising market are smaller, the market share of Jinghua Times has expanded. Only when other media are declining or weakening, the Beijing Times will have a chance to stand out faster. Only by decentralizing newspaper resources can Jinghua Times become bigger and stronger quickly. Therefore, this is a rare opportunity for the Beijing Times. Only when Jinghua Times becomes bigger and stronger can it have sufficient financial strength, content advantages and brand value, transform into new media, connect with new media and realize cross-media development. In a few years, Jinghua Times will definitely not do this again, and it will definitely survive digitally and even be "fragmented". However, the powerful information collection and dissemination platform of Jinghua Times is still there, and the brand influence of Jinghua Times is still there. We can continue to produce and disseminate news through the Internet, mobile phones, electronic newspapers, personalized materials and other carriers, not just relying on a single paper media. The enrichment of information resources and the diversification of communication means will be the goal pursued by Jinghua Times in the network age. In fact, before entering the printing process, the information of paper media has been completely digitized, so the transformation will be natural.

Wu Haimin believes that a series of major changes will inevitably take place in the traditional newspaper industry in winter. First, the relationship between market supply and demand will undergo major changes. The reader market, advertising market and distribution market of newspapers will continue to shrink. The current situation is oversupply and overproduction. Second, the business model and management model of newspapers will undergo major changes. At present, it is difficult to cope with market fluctuations only by advertising revenue, and it is also difficult to change the situation of average profit decline by extensive management. Third, the investment structure and governance structure of newspapers will undergo major changes. The current enterprise management can't adapt to the increasingly fierce competition at all, and the task of cultivating market competitors is arduous and urgent. Fourth, the position of newspapers in various media market structures will undergo major changes. Newspapers have become cheap workers of new online media. If we can't find feasible countermeasures in content appreciation, and if there is no collective awakening of newspapers in this regard, newspapers will become more and more marginalized. All this is the general trend, and it is a law that does not depend on human will. A newspaper with a history of 400 years, as a product of the industrial age, will bid farewell to its former glory. At the same time, the new media has stepped onto the historical stage with an irresistible trend. Today's media people will be witnesses to this great change.

Facing the general trend of the times, newspaper operators should keep a clear head and not hope for a miracle of rebound next year. For some newspapers with serious losses, the business burden will be heavier next year. Wu Haimin firmly thinks so. Even a newspaper that can barely survive for a period of time should consider strategic transformation as soon as possible, plan and prepare early, and find a way to survive in the historical tide. He who has no long-term worries will have near worries. We must grasp the "current situation." "Time" means "time" and "potential" means "potential". Do your own thing at the intersection of time and potential.

Wu Haimin believes that traditional media must carry out revolutionary innovation. Instead of letting others change their lives, it is better to get up and change their lives and actively find a way out in the future. He said, first of all, we must innovate in ideas and thoughts. Ideas always precede actions, just as lightning always precedes thunder. In addition, products, marketing, systems and other aspects need innovation. One door closes and the other opens. The transformation of traditional media needs some pioneers and thinkers, and the times are calling for such innovative media.

Wu Haimin particularly emphasized the great impetus of the scientific and technological revolution to the development and reform of the media. Technology has changed the course of history. With the radio, there is broadcasting; With bit technology, there is the Internet. The development promoted by technological revolution and innovation is irresistible, and it is also irresistible to be eliminated because of backward technology and outdated production methods. Some people think that readers have reading habits and rely on newspapers, so the life of newspapers will be very long. Actually, it is not. People used to rely on small records and phonographs, but did they survive? So, people rely on audio and video tapes, but does this dependence exist? Later, people only became dependent on CDs, but MP3 became the favorite of young people. Facing the rapid development of new technology and new media, the future of traditional media, especially newspapers, is not optimistic. Some people abroad predict that newspapers will die out in 2040. Furthermore, it is predicted that new york Times will close on March 9th, 20th13rd. Of course, this is not necessarily the case. However, anything is possible. A year ago, if people heard these statements, they would scoff and think they were crazy, jump to conclusions and lie, but today people have openly and frankly talked about such topics. He asserted that the winter of traditional newspaper industry will be quite long; Only by grasping the current situation and vigorously innovating can we find a way to survive in the future and usher in a new spring for the newspaper industry. (Author: Beijing Daily Newspaper Group)

New media new thinking

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