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How will Sino-US military relations develop in the future?
Therefore, what kind of military relationship will emerge between China and the United States, or how the military relationship between China and the United States will develop, will undoubtedly have a great impact on the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and even the world. With China's Defense Minister Chang Wanquan's visit to the United States, people's attention to the development of Sino-US military relations has soared. People like me who always have nothing to do with Sino-US relations want to have a glimpse of the future of Sino-US military relations. Experts and scholars are optimistic about the opinions seen in the mainstream media. To sum up, there are three opinions at present: one is "good momentum", the other is "steady progress" and the third is "healthy development". The three statements are different in degree, but there is no essential difference. In short, they are all optimistic about the relations between the Chinese and American armed forces. They believe that the high-level exchanges between the two armies have continued, and the mutual trust between China and the United States has been actively enhanced, and the cooperation between the two armies in various fields has been strengthened, and a series of understandings have been reached, so the future is bright. We say that this is not so much a strategic judgment as a subjective wish. It is true that in today's China, a large number of people are eager to see Sino-US relations getting better and better, and Sino-US military relations getting better and better. They are eagerly looking forward to the day when the generals of the Chinese and American armed forces can fight side by side and live in harmony, the warships of the two countries can keep pace, and the fighter planes of the two countries can rival Qi Fei. What a touching and beautiful scene it is! However, the facts are ruthless. Contrary to optimism, the military relationship between China and the United States in reality is quite cold. This is mainly manifested in two points: First, frequent mutual visits and hidden dangers. Just as China and the United States have frequent exchanges in the political, economic and cultural fields, China and the United States also have close exchanges in the military field. Both sides are polite, modest and courteous, but this is only a superficial phenomenon. The reality is that the Chinese and American armed forces are each other's biggest imaginary enemies in the war. For example, at present, China's army is mainly against the United States, and all military training, military exercises and war plans are aimed at the United States. The same is true in America. In addition to the US Army, the US Navy and Air Force are now busy planning the future Western Pacific War, with the goal of China. Some experts and scholars call this phenomenon "mutual suspicion". This is an understatement. This is not "mutual suspicion" at all, but sharpening the knife openly and hiding the murder in the dark. Everyone wants to kill each other and win the first world war. This is the essence of Sino-US military relations. Because of this, the Chinese and American armed forces are now facing a serious confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region. No matter how they communicate and conduct joint exercises, this basic nature cannot be changed. Second, they often turn against each other. The basic nature determines the basic trend, and so does Sino-US military relations. Over the years, China and the United States have been in constant conflict in the military field, drawing swords against each other many times, obliterating countless "good momentum." 1996, the Taiwan Strait crisis, the bombing of the embassy in Yugoslavia, the plane collision in the South China Sea, arms sales to Taiwan, etc ... In short, it is normal for Sino-US military relations to turn against each other frequently. Third, there will be no substantive progress. There is a fundamental contradiction between the strategic interests of China and the United States, and there is no room for reconciliation between China's powerful hegemony and the ravages of China. This fundamental contradiction is now reflected in various strategic points such as Taiwan Province Province, Korean Peninsula, Diaoyu Island and South China Sea Islands, or in other words, the specific conflict between China and the United States on the above points is not accidental and isolated, but a concrete reflection and actual performance under the overall strategic contradiction, so it is also irreconcilable and difficult to eliminate. This is the basis and premise of Sino-US military relations. With such a foundation and premise, it is decided that no matter how busy the top military officials of China and the United States are, there will actually be no meaningful progress, let alone an open agreement or even a private tacit understanding. Unless China gives in and exercises restraint, they can only play some ostentatious tricks. What is particularly alarming is that the United States has been using this kind of flicker to disintegrate the other camp. This is the strategic advantage of the United States and its consistent trick.