Solve the global resource crisis by developing renewable resources! The century has passed. Great changes have taken place in science and technology, social structure and global population in the past 100 years. It can be predicted that these changes will still have a great impact on all aspects of society in the 2 1 century. Although the world economy experienced many depressions, booms, crises and recoveries in the 20th century, it made great progress. The developed countries have sustained economic development, and many newly industrialized countries and regions, especially developing countries, have shown sustained and rapid economic development momentum. The world economy in 2 1 century, especially in the next 20-25 years, will continue to develop at a high speed. In the future economic development, mankind will face severe challenges of limited resources and protection of the ecological environment. In the next 25 years, the world population may reach 654.38+0 billion, and such a huge population needs food and necessary materials. At the same time, we should provide corresponding energy, transportation, housing, schools and various machines. The exponential growth of demand and limited resources have formed a sharp contradiction. Looking back on the development of the 20th century, especially since 1930s, is the history of oil and gas economic development. The main resources come from fossil resources (coal, oil and natural gas), and many countries believe that fossil resources are the basis for ensuring the supply of energy and raw materials. Since the 1920s, it has provided the needs of economic development and even reached today's living standard. According to statistics, the share of bio-based resources is very small, less than 1% in energy and less than 5% in raw materials. Although hydrocarbons have made great contributions to economic development, the limited resources are worrying, and the ecological and environmental problems brought by various chemical products are becoming more and more serious. Therefore, the strategy of sustainable development has become global knowledge and has been widely accepted and implemented. In the implementation of sustainable development, it plays an important role in maintaining the balance between economic development and ecological environment, sustained economic growth, continuous improvement of people's living and health standards, national security and stability, and ensuring the supply of resources. Therefore, many governments and industries call for the development and utilization of renewable resources to supplement and replace the non-renewable and decreasing fossil fuel resources that are too dependent at present. As early as 1996, the U.S. government organized experts from relevant trade associations, academic groups, industries and education and scientific research departments to give lectures on the development and utilization of renewable resources, and after 1998, it put forward a proposal entitled "Renewable Resources Based on Plants/Crops in 2020 —— Assumption on Strengthening American Economic Security through the Utilization of Renewable Plants/Crops Resources" (hereinafter referred to as ") After the idea was published, the US Department of Agriculture and the Department of Energy supported the National Corn Growers Association to organize a cross-industry research lecture to discuss the implementation of the idea. After a long lecture, the industry, the industry and government departments have a * * * understanding of the realization of the envisaged goals, existing problems and implementation steps, and put forward a technical guide entitled "Implementing the Renewable Resources Plan Based on Plants/Crops in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the "Technical Guide"). These two reports are detailed, focused, logical and clear in implementation steps, and many viewpoints, technical topics and measures are enlightening. From these two reports, we can not only understand the connotation of renewable resources, the necessity and possibility of development and utilization, but also provide implementation ways for how to develop and promote the development and utilization of renewable resources. It also clearly expounds the economic and technological status, existing obstacles and misunderstandings of the development and utilization of renewable resources. Although these two reports are aimed at the situation in the United States, their scientific and forward-looking nature and many technical connotations are still of great reference value to us. "Hypothesis" is a strategy to develop renewable resources industry based on plants/crops. After lectures and research, 63 experts and scholars from American agriculture, forestry and chemical industries (including various American companies), non-profit organizations, trade associations and academic departments, as well as all walks of life, first put forward their ideas for the future development of this emerging industry. 1996 65438+In February, the National Corn Growers Association of the United States organized a strategic vision seminar to draft an industrial vision, so that renewable materials based on plants/crops can be used as a supplementary source of raw materials currently used to meet people's growing demand for chemicals, materials and other products. This "vision" broadly plans how this industry will move from the current family-based industry to the national-scale core manufacturing industry. The purpose of making this "idea" public is to attract more readers' attention, put forward suggestions and jointly develop it to make it a realistic technical implementation plan. There have been two different views on whether the world resources can support the rapid economic expansion that has occurred at present: one is pessimistic that the world resources can hardly meet the exponential economic growth. If the existing technology cannot be further developed and the non-renewable resources are limited, this pessimistic view is indeed a realistic evaluation; On the other hand, the current technology is breaking through and has unlimited potential, so we are optimistic about the future. History teaches people that only by putting forward clear ideas through coordination can we guide people to solve major problems related to future development. In the past, we have been talking about how to solve the problem of feeding more than 654.38 billion people in the world in the next 25 years. Getting food is only the need of human survival, and there are other exponential growth needs of energy, transportation, housing, schools, machinery, computers, etc. We should consider where the resources to meet these needs come from. Drilling more and deeper oil and gas wells can supply more hydrocarbon raw materials, but the oil and gas reserves are limited after all. The effective utilization rate of existing hydrocarbons will continue to increase, but it has little effect. Nanotechnology may promote miniaturization, thus saving materials, but some objects cannot be shrunk. The problem is that resources are drying up, and it doesn't matter when they are dried up. It is important to explore a new resource model and gradually transform it. The preface of Hypothesis points out that no matter how the applicable technology is applied, it is in line with the direction of sustainable development and the requirements of environment and ecology to transform existing resources into renewable resources. Therefore, the application of plant/crop resources is optimistic. With the development of applicability research and development, people can find many economically feasible schemes to meet the needs of the whole planet. The "Vision" determines the direction and corresponding planning, and takes measures to establish a renewable resource base using energy and carbon sources in the plant system. The challenges are severe, but the opportunities are incalculable. Humans can adapt to changes, but they must accept the challenges they face. The preface further clarifies the background of "hypothesis" from two aspects: 1. Definition Plant/crop-based resources Plant/crop-based (sometimes bio-based) resources refer to plants from a certain range of systems, mainly crops, forest products and by-products of industrial processing such as food, feed and fiber. They can be regenerated in a short time through annual crops and tree species, perennial plants and short-term rotation tree species. Petrochemical products were originally based on plants, and their basic molecules were hydrocarbons. At present, a large number of basic molecules used in renewable resources based on plants/crops are carbohydrates, lignin and vegetable oil. There are also some molecules with low content and high value from plant secondary metabolism. Another major difference is that hydrocarbons and their extraction systems have been developed and processed to produce the raw materials they need, while plant-based renewable resources have been recognized to some extent, but some plants will contain some resources, and what will be left after processing is not fully understood. The latest progress of biotechnology can change the extraction system of plant components and enzymes, which provides new economic opportunities for the production of chemical products and new intermediates and products that are needed now. According to statistics, the area of forest, cultivated land and pasture in the United States is about 2.246 billion acres (1 acre =0.405 hectare, the same below), of which 424 million acres are planted with major crops, which can produce a large number of plant/crop resources. In the past 50 years, these resources were mainly concentrated in food, feed and fiber production. 2. Hydrocarbon Economy In the late 20th century, the world economy developed rapidly, and the output growth rate greatly increased, especially in developed countries and some developing countries. Oil and gas economy plays an important role in the process of successful growth and development. Since the 1920s, the adoption and utilization of fossil fuels have provided people with economic benefits and living standards. Many countries rely on this resource to meet the needs of energy and raw materials. In the past 50 years, a lot of research and development have created many technical processes, which can greatly increase the value in energy production and basic product manufacturing. Market economy is obviously driven by people's willingness to improve their living standards, thus creating a variety of products. The amount of biological resources (mainly plant resources) is very small. According to statistics, it is less than 1% in energy and less than 5% in raw materials. 1 96 The output of corn, soybean and millet in the United States was about 690 billion pounds (1pound =0.4536 kg, the same below) for food and feed. Economically, it can't catch up with industrial raw materials, but the economy based on hydrocarbons is prosperous. Although hydrocarbons will continue to play a very effective platform role for economic development, there are still some problems to be solved in its future application. First of all, the application environment of petrochemical products has been paid more and more attention, and many related problems have appeared. Fossil fuel is a decreasing raw material resource. The application of plant/crop resources as a supplement, because they are renewable, creates opportunities for the orderly transformation of the economy to sustainable development. By investigating the energy situation, we can see the necessity of renewable resources as a supplement Oil and gas resources are limited. Many experts suggest that the world's recoverable and proven reserves can only be provided for 50- 100 years according to the current consumption level. An important assumption here is that the "current consumption level" remains unchanged, but considering the world population growth and changes in living standards, this assumption is unreasonable. At present, the per capita energy consumption level in the world varies greatly, as shown in table 1. Many developing countries will increase energy consumption. The future energy supply problem is multifaceted, because developing countries have a large population. For example, the per capita energy consumption of China is equivalent to 1/3 of that of the United States, and the amount of energy to be increased is equivalent to the total energy consumption of the United States in the whole year.