Edward lorenz, an American meteorologist, analyzed this influence in the paper 1963 submitted to the New York Academy of Sciences. "A meteorologist mentioned that if this theory is proved to be correct, a seagull flapping its wings is enough to change the weather forever." In his later speeches and papers, he used more poetic butterflies. The most common explanation for this effect is: "A butterfly in the tropical rain forest of the Amazon River basin in South America can cause a tornado in Texas within two weeks with an occasional flap of its wings." The reason is that the movement of butterfly flapping its wings causes changes in the surrounding air system, resulting in weak airflow, which in turn causes corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, causing a chain reaction and eventually leading to great changes in other systems. He called it chaos. Of course, the "butterfly effect" is mainly a metaphor about chaos. It is also the true reaction of the butterfly effect. An insignificant little gesture can cause a series of great reactions.
The source of this sentence is that meteorologists have made a computer program that can simulate climate change and show it with images. Finally, he found that the image was chaotic, very much like a butterfly with open wings, so he explained the figure vividly in the way of "butterfly flapping its wings", so he had the above statement.
Lorenz found that because the error will increase exponentially, in this case, a small error will have great consequences if it continues. Later, Lorenz raised this question in a speech. He believes that in the process of atmospheric movement, even if all kinds of errors and uncertainties are small, it is possible to accumulate the results in the process and gradually enlarge them to form a huge atmospheric movement. So it is impossible to accurately predict the weather for a long time.
So Lorenz decided that he had discovered a new phenomenon: the result of the development of things was extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. He later identified this as "extreme instability to the initial value", namely "chaos", also known as "butterfly effect".
A small butterfly flapping its wings over a certain place disturbs the air, which may cause a storm in a distant place for a long time, which is a metaphor for the unpredictable and serious consequences caused by a small factor in long-term large-scale weather forecast. Small deviations are inevitable, which makes long-term weather forecast unpredictable or inaccurate. Long-term large-scale weather forecast is the observation, calculation, analysis and judgment of the complex system of the earth's atmosphere, which is influenced and restricted by many factors that change at any time and place, so it is difficult to accurately predict its comprehensive effects, and the butterfly effect is inevitable. Our human research objects also involve other complex systems (including "natural systems" and "social systems"), which are also complicated by many factors, and their "corresponding butterfly effect" is inevitable. "Today's butterfly effect" or "generalized butterfly effect" is not limited to the butterfly effect that edward norton lorenz only uses for weather forecasting, but is synonymous or synonymous with all complex systems that are extremely sensitive to initial values, which means that for all complex systems, under certain "threshold conditions", their long-term and large-scale future behaviors are extremely sensitive to small changes or deviations in initial conditions, that is, small changes or deviations in initial values will lead to great differences in future prospects.
Butterfly effect refers to a very small change in initial conditions, which will have a great impact on its future state after continuous amplification. Some small things can be confused, and some small things are very important to an organization and a country if they are amplified by the system, so we can't confuse them.
The "butterfly effect" is chaotic from the beginning, and it is produced in inaccuracy or imprecision, so anything can happen.
Butterfly effect is a concept in chaos theory. It refers to a dependence on the sensitivity of initial conditions: small differences at the input end will be quickly amplified to the output end, and the butterfly effect can be seen everywhere in economic life.
Scientists' definition of chaos is that chaos refers to the seemingly random irregular motion that occurs in a deterministic system, but the behavior of the system described by deterministic theory has the characteristics of uncertainty-unrepeatable and unpredictable, which is the chaotic phenomenon. Further research shows that chaos is an inherent characteristic of nonlinear dynamic systems and a common phenomenon in nonlinear systems. Newton's deterministic theory can handle most linear systems perfectly, and most linear systems are simplified from nonlinear systems. Therefore, chaos is ubiquitous in real life and practical engineering and technical problems. Since Lorenz first discovered chaos, the research on chaos has been concerned by scientists, sociologists and humanists. Studying chaos is actually looking for order in disorder, but there are still too many unpredictable and chaotic things in today's world, and this topic will definitely become a human problem. Here, due to the limited knowledge, we only made a very superficial introduction, hoping that more people can walk into the door of chaos and see the world with deeper eyes. Maybe we can devote ourselves to this research in the future.