Compared with March 20 14, the total reduction of pigs in pig farms decreased by 10438+0%. The number of sows in February decreased by10.9% compared with that in June, and decreased by 15.5% year-on-year. From March 2065438 to March 2005, the sow survey decreased by 1.7% compared with last month and 15.3% compared with the same period last year. Still in February, 800,000 sows disappeared, and the number of sows in the country further decreased by 700,000 in March.
From 2065438 to 2005 10, the total number of dead sows in the whole country was 1 10,000, and 2.5 million pigs died in the first quarter. Since April 20 14 (12 months ago), 7.52 million sows have been slaughtered and flogged in China.
At that time, the stock of sows was the lowest level in more than four years. Poor shopping center prices led anxious farmers to sell their stocks. 15.3% sow reduction is more than the total number of sows in the United States (the second largest pig-raising country in the world) and Canada combined.
Some pig farms are now in deep financial difficulties, and the tide of closure of large pig farms has begun to appear. Some large pig farms have been closed or acquired by larger companies. However, with the decrease in the output value of fertile sows and the decline in the supply of product pigs, the price of pork has risen steadily since April.
After April, and in the following months, producers of product pigs should see the price continue to rebound at 20 15. The highest point this year should exceed 17 yuan/kg (1.25 USD/lb).
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP increased by 7.4% in 20 14, the lowest growth rate in -24 years. The sales of agricultural products was 5.8332 trillion yuan (or 942.054 trillion US dollars), an increase of 4. 1% from the previous month. In 20 14 years, the total output of product pigs was 735 1 100 million, an increase of 2.7% over the previous year. In 20 14, the number of live pigs was 465.83 million, an increase of 1.7% over 20 13. The output value of pork was 567 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year.
In 2065.438+04, large-scale designated slaughterhouses slaughtered 236.533 million heads, up 65.438+0.45% year-on-year. The slaughter peak is always near the New Year. In June 20 14, these slaughterhouses slaughtered 23.87 million heads, and in February 20 14, the slaughter volume was also very large. The lowest slaughter quantity is usually after the New Year (only 1392000 head in February of 20 14). In addition, the slaughter in summer may be very low.
In 20 14, China slaughtered 7351000000 head. Slaughters in large slaughterhouses account for about 1/3. The national government is promoting the improvement of the slaughter capacity of large slaughterhouses, while canceling small, poorly regulated activities or designating slaughterhouses.
China Meat Association reported that in the first year of 2065,438+04, there were 3,786 large slaughtering and meat processing enterprises in China. One slaughterhouse ***35 1(9.3%) closed down or lost money this year. All large companies account for 20% of all animals (pigs, poultry and cattle, etc.) slaughtered. It is necessary for these slaughterhouses to compete with small companies, which are local and adapt to small producers because of their low fixed costs and usually weak supervision.
Recently, Romania was allowed to export frozen pork to China, so it became the16th country to export pork to China. Smithfield Group has a large pig farm in Romania, which belongs to Wanzhou Group (a part of China Shuanghui Group). This pig farm is allowed to export frozen pork.
In 20 14, the domestic grain output value reached 600 million tons, and the corn output value reached 2156.73 million tons (the second largest output value on record). In this situation, China's carry-over corn inventory is surplus, with 24.89 million tons carried over in 20 13 years; 39.76 million tons in 20 14, and it is expected to reach 29.5 million tons in 20 15.
In the week of April 17, the national corn price scale was from the high point of 2653 yuan/ton to the low point of 2 15 1 yuan/ton; The national wheat price scale is 2460 yuan/ton to 1.500 yuan/ton, and the national soybean meal price scale is 3773-2820 yuan/ton.
According to the recent statement issued by the Dutch cooperative bank, in the first quarter of 20 15, the statement believed that the global pork price dropped sharply. The supply of the United States, Russia and Brazil has increased, exceeding the demand. In March, the price of pork in China bottomed out (so far this year) and is now rising. Exports to China will increase rapidly in the second half of the year. German, Dutch, Danish and Spanish EU countries and Brazil are now ready to take advantage of China's demand. The United States and Canada believe that China's exports may increase.
The price of pork in China has been falling for the past eight months, but it has increased in the past six weeks. Growth is relatively weak (about 6%), but farmers in China are optimistic about further growth in the second quarter.
Harbin Vico Biotechnology Company launched the first PED virus vaccine in China. This vaccine can also protect TGE (infectious gastroenteritis) virus and G rotavirus. Last year, the American pig industry suffered huge losses, and 76% of American pig farms were infected with PED virus. China often suffers from the loss of PED virus formation. Under the leadership of Dr. Li Feng, Harbin Veterinary Research Institute developed a new vaccine last year (2014) 20438+June 2002. The institute introduced great-grandfather sows and boars from Jiayu Company for scientific research purposes. The domestic pig industry is cautious and philosophical about the newly released vaccine.
Consumer price index (CPE) is still the focus of the national government. CPI consumption basket products accounted for 3 1.8%. Pork accounts for13 of the food basket, in other words, it accounts for about 10% of the whole CPI. In the first quarter of 20 15, the CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, which was the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2009. This is a sign of deflation, reflecting the weak demand in all our countries. This may lead the government to further relax its policies while economic activities are weak.
The inflation rate in March was the same as that in February, 1.4%, which was better than the market expectation (0.8% in June, 5438+0.4%, the lowest in five years). Food prices (including pork) were obviously weak after the New Year, falling by 4.5%. At that time, the price of pork lowered the CPI, and now it has started to rise sharply, which will probably last until the middle of this year, causing anxiety of the national government. As a goal, we should add CPI when adding pig price.