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I saw the American presidential election.
After the world-famous American presidential election turned into a farce, mocking voices actually poured out from all directions. Can the potential and luck of the United States in all aspects maintain its advantages for another half to a century? The elites of all mankind, including the elites of the United States, have repeatedly raised this question and are trying their best to find its answer. Because it is very simple, the fate of the United States, whether it is active or sinking, global participation or isolationism, affects the policy direction of important and secondary countries in the world.

Of course, the common people of all mankind also care about America. They want to know the exchange rate between the US dollar and the domestic currency, the exchange rate between the US dollar and other western currencies, what kind of currency they should hold, what is the ratio and what is the trend. How to preserve value? How to speculate? They usually read Dow Jones Review Index, Standard & Poor's Index, Nasdaq Index, Moody's Credit Rating, Businessweek, Fortune, Forbes Magazine, and care about how their little assets increase in value. How to operate?

The fuel consumption of American drivers is related to the oil prices in the Middle East and Norway, to the national budgets of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Brunei, and to whether Zhenhai Petrochemical in China should eat a batch of crude oil futures. Americans' preference for beverages is related to the income of coffee plantations in Colombia, tea farmers in Sri Lanka and cocoa in West African countries. The fashion of American clothing is related to Italian fashion designers, China textile mills and Pakistani cotton prices. American children's toy hobbies and American women's umbrellas have always attracted the attention of designers in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The new version of American computer software has aroused the interest of all computer enthusiasts from Iceland, India to China. TOEFL, GRE and American MBA have become the goals of Asian middle school students and college students. Harvard, Princeton, Stanford and MIT are just a few treasures to countless intellectuals.

I have met some Americans, including businessmen and intellectuals. They only care about whether others have the strength or potential to surpass the United States in some way, and never think that the United States will become poor, turbulent, divided or disintegrated. I have also talked with scholars from Japan and Germany, and found that they attach great importance to the United States, and almost none of them have studied in the United States or given lectures. Many of my friends have been going to the United States since the early 1980s, coming and going between the United States and China. They never mentioned how America would "collapse". From the perspective of oriental culture, no one has ever studied the dreams of the Roman Empire and Levi, Gibbon and Machiavelli about the distant disappearing Western Empire. Some scholars and citizens in Taiwan Province Province simply tied their lives to the United States, which is more important than his father, and the aircraft carrier of the US Navy is much more important than their rifles.

This is America.

Understanding the economic structure and operation of the United States has made people confused, and the truth and illusion overlap; To understand American politics, which supports and helps the economy, is like walking into a maze of twists and turns, and often even Americans themselves don't understand it. After the Vietnam War, many Americans thought that the essence of politicians was to deceive people, and they were bored and alienated from politics. The turnout rate in every presidential election was always below 50%. The operation of American political power is becoming more and more complicated, and people don't want to know or understand the operating mechanism of American politics. Finally, we should change the American presidential election into a simple formula, and whoever comes to power will benefit our own interest groups or our own country. (

Historically and realistically, American politics can be called "democratic politics".

However, this kind of "democracy" is not or at all understood by most China people or Asians according to their own cultural traditions. Or give everyone freedom of speech; Or direct presidential elections; Or the separation of legislative, judicial and administrative powers; Or the army is dominated by civilian personnel; Or the system of the Senate and the House of Representatives; Or interest groups and lobby groups, and so on, as advertised in the US Constitution and advocated by American politicians and ideological elites.

Even if you don't understand, you might as well listen to what those democracy advocates say about democracy.

According to Schumpeter, an American political theorist, there are at least three Democrats with vague boundaries-they are idealists based on ideology, classicists based on structure, and empiricists based on pragmatism. They have different understandings and interpretations of the basic concepts of democracy, such as humanitarianism, equality, individual freedom and rights, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly and political activities, freedom of speech, publication and criticism of the government, care for public interests, protection of minority rights, power to make decisions on issues, real power of the legislature over the administrative organs, two-party or multi-party system, and free and fair election of officials.

This makes us more confused about democratic politics.

However, we are deeply impressed by the enormous and modern economic and military power that American democracy can mobilize and possess, which forces us to understand, even superficially.

I think I can only do my best.

The pragmatist Schumpeter strongly criticized the classical democrats and the ideal democrats. He thinks that the public interest is the most important purpose of classicism, and he doesn't agree with this. He sneered: whose interest is the so-called public interest?

He believes that the role of politics is nothing more than accurately judging whose interests are public interests; In a society, each group has different interests, so whose interests are the main ones? Political struggle is to convince some groups that their interests are not really more important than other interests.

It can be said that political struggle can be used as a rude force to subdue one group and subordinate its interests to those of another group.

That's really naked

Of course, as another aspect of politics, we can see that it also includes bargaining and compromise. But people without special training simply can't figure out a lot of democratic clues, and they can't get their share of the benefits.

As a result, American politicians and political theorists have reached a consensus that a simpler and better solution is to keep the word democratic country, but explain it according to practical experience.

The reality of the United States is roughly that its self-proclaimed democratic country is an organizational form of political decision-making. In this form, individuals win people's votes through competition, thus gaining power. In this way, what the people do is not to directly decide major issues, but to choose a government from individuals who compete with each other and voluntarily become leaders of the people. Once these people are elected, this is the decision made by the government. However, the election and operation of the government are far more complicated, contradictory and struggling than publicly indicated, and consensus, bargaining, alliance and mutual compromise are reached. The so-called democratic policy politics may not be the noblest invention of mankind, but it is probably one of the most attractive games invented by mankind.

It is this system that formed the United States in the 20th century and profoundly influenced the country, government and people in the 20th century.

Today, with the development of commodity economy and the pervasiveness of advertisements, people are accustomed not to what they hear, but to what they have done and what the results and effects are.

From the formation of the early political system in the United States, we can see what kind of genes are branded in the United States today.

/kloc-in the 0 th and 8 th centuries, North American colonists began to realize that they had the characteristics and character of Americans and were no longer Americans. But it is far from the nationalism that people talk about today. The former colonial countries had loose relations. In 13, there was no government at all except a beggar who cheated money. In other words, the political entity after the independence of North America is not a "country" at all, but a state. Congress, a distracted advisory and deliberative body, was able to defeat the determined United States, which surprised many people. It can be seen that the strength of the United States is rooted in the people.

By 1786, some elites, such as alexander hamilton and Benjamin Franklin, realized that there must be a strong government and the United States at home and abroad as a big country, rather than a Dutch-style "joint province". At the same time, people feel that loose confederacy clauses can't solve practical problems and are not good for them. At that time, people's hopes and anxieties were intertwined, and turmoil and chaos appeared repeatedly. The Xie Si Uprising broke the long-delayed status quo, and Congress voted to hold a constitutional convention in Philadelphia.

Among the 55 delegates attending the Constituent Assembly, Washington and Franklin are international celebrities, and the rest are highly respected and influential local celebrities. 24 of them are well received in all 13 states. More than half of them are from superior families or close to superior families. Only a few people come from the lower classes, and the rest have decent family backgrounds.

Judging from the economic situation, 10 people are very rich, and 10 people are also very rich, and the rest can be called rich people to some extent. Only a few people can be considered poor. Most of the rich own land or slaves, and more than 10 people own urban real estate. The other 65,438+00 people own land in the west and can engage in speculation. More than 20 people own farmland, less than 10 people own securities, 6 people own boats, and 3 people have investments in manufacturing.

10 people are mainly plantation owners or large farmers, and 12 people are mainly lawyers. 12 state government officials mainly rely on salaries. Two are doctors, 1 is Franklin, the printer. Although he mainly engaged in scientific research for several years, he also served as a colonial diplomat in London.

Almost half of the delegates have received college education. At that time, higher education was very unusual, and this figure was really amazing. Almost all the representatives belong to a sect in name; It seems that no one is a fanatical religious person. They are down-to-earth people. For them, although religion occupies a certain position, it does not occupy the main position.

The youngest representative is Jonathan Dayton, who is only 26 years old. He has excellent qualifications:/kloc-graduated from Princeton University at the age of 0/6 and joined the Continental Army. /kloc-promoted to captain at the age of 0/9 and has been serving in the army. The oldest representative is Franklin, 8 1 year. The average age of the delegates is 43.

More than half of the 55 delegates served in the army during the revolutionary period, and almost all of them participated in the revolution in one way or another. What is more striking is that people who have participated in rural development account for a large proportion, not only among the framers, but also among those who are in favor of approving the constitution. As an authoritative research report pointed out: "If there is any characteristic that unites the leaders who later supported the Constitution, it is that they had the same experience in the mainland army during the revolutionary period."

Therefore, it can be said that the delegates attending the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention have a superior social background than ordinary citizens: they are better educated, richer and have greater influence in their respective regions. In an emerging country struggling for survival, it is natural to elect representatives to attend the meeting and put forward a plan for governing the country, and to elect such an important citizen as a representative. However, in addition, there are practical political reasons for recommending celebrities. Members of the state legislature who supported the Philadelphia Conference and appointed delegates agreed that it was of great significance to appoint some important people in the region as delegates. Otherwise, their works will have little chance of being recognized.

How representative were these representatives to the 3.5 million residents of the US 13 state at that time?

Some historians think that they are not representative, because they are all celebrities, and they are elected by the state legislature rather than directly by the people. However, the procedure for the legislature to appoint representatives was the practice at that time. Before 19 13, members of the US Congress were elected through this procedure. We should remember that the legislature with appointed representatives is elected through the most "democratic" elections in the world. Here, "democracy" means the percentage of people with voting rights. Slaves and women have no right to vote. Generally speaking, the right to vote is limited to property owners. It was the same in Europe at that time, but in the United States, it was much easier to get land. Recent research shows that the right to vote is actually very extensive in the United States. It is estimated that 80% of adult white men in Massachusetts have the right to vote. New Jersey is clearly more than half, and Virginia is slightly less than 50%.

Delegates often say that they represent the "American people", which may be correct. Of course, they can't represent conservatives loyal to the king of England, and no one expects a group of revolutionaries to invite people who supported their former rulers to participate in drafting the new constitution of the government (in fact, a large number of pro-British elements have already fled to Britain and Canada). When we think of the French Revolution, we always think that it is bloodier and more vindictive than the American Revolution. But during the French Revolution, only five thousandths of people immigrated; During the American Revolution, the number of immigrants to foreign countries reached 24 per thousand. There is another difference from the French Revolution: once the American policy is formulated, it will move forward in light of the actual situation, instead of taking a retrogressive approach.

These representatives are politicians who have extensive contacts with civilians and powerful people. They supported the revolution in the army and local areas, and they deeply understood the revolution and its essence as well as various ideological trends at that time. At that time, there were 30 stable political factions in 13 state, and all factions except 6 factions were represented at the meeting. Entrusted by the local elders, they must safeguard the interests of the local people. They are familiar with these things and are good at politics, debates, tricks, manipulation of public opinion and compromise. There are both radical idealists and smooth businessmen among them; Some people talk about human ideal governance, political philosophy, legal rights, civil rights, and the structure and form of the country; Some people actually protect southerners' investment in slaves, protect the freedom of western land speculators to make money and the freedom of shipping groups.

They voted to establish a national central government above the states. It consists of three parts: the highest legislature, the executive and the judiciary.

They formulated the constitution of the United States and the procedures for amending it.

They debated for more than a month and made numerous compromises and votes. I worked hard for the birth of this system that is neither like Rome nor like England. Finally, it laid a political and legal foundation for their country that no one expected in the future.

It is this cornerstone that seems strange, complicated, ambiguous and vague, but it ensures that a superpower grows out of shape step by step, defeats many former and emerging rivals, and finally laughs at the world.

American political tradition has two sources:

Roman,

And the British.

The foundation of Roman Empire's expansion and stability lies in its legal protection of citizens' long-term interests in agriculture.

The basis of the expansion and stability of the British Empire lies in its determination of the division and distribution of interests and the supervision system of mutual checks and balances, thus ensuring the stability and continuous expansion of the local industrial, commercial and financial systems.

If a system invented by human beings is extensible, it can be expanded into an empire.

If it is inclusive, stable and flexible, it is likely to make the empire stable and powerful for a long time.

Finding an extended, stable, flexible and inclusive system and planting it on the most suitable land and sea requires a lot of human efforts.

When you see an empire, you should think of the system that produced it.

The expansion, stability, flexibility and longevity of the empire also depend on the system and vitality, tension and endurance.

In addition, there are factors such as time, location, and people.

Which individuals and groups have power, or influence the power decision-making of the US government?

President, an official appointed by the president; Members of the Senate and the House of Representatives and their committees and speakers; The American judicial system headed by the Supreme Court: the Court of Appeal, the Claims Court, the Circuit Court of Appeal for the District of Columbia, the Military Court of Appeal, the Customs Court, the Tax Court, the quasi-judicial institutions and the state judicial system; Institutions subordinate to the President; White House, various committees-administration, economy, environmental protection, wages and prices, international economic policy, internal affairs, energy committee, national security committee, trade special representative (China people are most familiar with their names, Jakala Hills, Basevski); The State Council and ministries: finance, national defense, justice, internal affairs, agriculture, commerce, labor, health, education and welfare, housing and urban development, transportation and energy; There are committees with various names ..... Diplomatic agencies, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the National Security Agency, the military-including the familiar air force, army, navy and marine corps, and the National Guard-all of these institutions and individuals belong to the direct decision makers and executors.

Their operation and performance are often formal and superficial. Between the most direct decision makers and voters, there are also powerful secondary people and groups, who also participate in and influence the formulation of policies. People outside the United States are not familiar with their faces and hide from them.

Generally speaking, it is interest groups and out-of-hospital groups.

There are also two powerful forces in the second circle, which can exert a direct influence on the policy direction of the United States. One is the state and local governments; The second is political parties. Some people regard them as a part of the government and an "intermediate structure".

Interest groups are also called pressure groups. The concept of lobbying groups is vague. Many groups do employ a group of lobbyists, and they do dredge activities for members outside Congress. But some are not. Extracurricular activities refer more to the strategies adopted by many interest groups. Only interest groups are not controversial. 1989 After the summer, Sino-US relations were tense, and the United States mobilized a large and complex variety of forces to attack and contain the blockade of China. China has done its utmost to counter and tilt this blockade. In this process, many people in China want to find out who is in charge and who is in charge in the United States. Going around is even more confusing.

Interest groups, including enterprises, trade unions, state and local governments, deal with a certain aspect of federal politics.

It is estimated that Americans belong to 654.38 million associations, clubs and private organizations.

Generally speaking, people in underdeveloped agricultural countries can reflect their demands through the representation of geographical regions. However, a huge modern industrial country, relying only on geographical representation is not enough to reflect different and extensive interests. These tens of millions of organized interest groups are divided into several different types. The most common is often divided by commodities, and members of this group organize to seek a stronger economic position. To put it bluntly, the state must pay for my group speech legislation, otherwise this country will have my share. They cover a wide range, such as walnut growers association, national fertilizer association, tobacco association, international ice cream manufacturers association, national drug retailers association, dairy owners association and so on.

There is also a kind of economic interest groups, which represent larger and broader economic interests, such as the American Agricultural Society and Farmers' Federation, the American Chamber of Commerce, and the National Manufacturers' Association.

Organizations such as the American Medical Association, the American Bar Association, the American Association of University Professors, the Film Actors Association, the American Institute of Architects, and the American Writers' Union are economic interest groups divided by occupation. The American Veterans Organization is composed of veterans, and it has great influence in fighting for pensions and bonuses for veterans. The American Association of Retired Persons also falls into this category; Organizations such as the National Association of Colored People fight for racial equality and rights for blacks, and the National Congress of American Indians fights for the same rights for Indians. The national women's organization actively stood up to speak for women; At first, the National Rifle Association was just a fraternity of amateur shooters. Later, it became anti-gun legislation with more than 20 million members, and the Rifle Association played a great role.

No ordinary American will doubt that large enterprises and group companies have formidable power in society. In countries that advocate money, basic commercial production enterprises are the pillars of the national economy. 500 large companies in the United States-control three-quarters of the country's industrial assets, accounting for more than half of the national economy. They certainly have great political influence. The United States has tried several times to impose trade sanctions and cancel MFN status on China according to Article 30 1. They actively mediate because they have investment interests in China, but because they are familiar with the country, they try their best to get to the point, and finally there is no danger.

Trade unions are capitalist American forms of socialism. AFL-CIO in the United States is one of the important forces in American society, but in recent years, with the development of service industry and information industry, Americans are widely employed, and the power of trade unions is weakening.

There are various interest groups, and there are various forms of organization and struggle.

The following examples can illustrate how they act for their own interests.

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Why is the competition in this US presidential election so fierce? I think the benefits behind it are too great, not only great, but also the accumulation of benefits is too fast.

So what are the benefits? After the failure of the Vietnam War, the Reagan administration promoted the little-known supply-side theory and released the American financial demon. After giving up some jobs, the manufacturing industry in the United States began to shift to high technology; The financial system of the United States has gradually formed a three-point world of banks, securities and various funds, making the investment sources more diversified and flexible; The trend of company merger, merger, asset reorganization and small and medium-sized enterprises' entrepreneurship is higher for a while, and more and more legal persons and natural persons are involved in the economic torrent of the new era. Today, when we look at American democracy, it seems to be a kind of political and institutional democracy. In fact, it is just a representation, and the foundation is mercantilist economic democracy.

During the 20 years from 1970s to 1990s, most American financial institutions were non-banks. The concentration and merger of the banking industry are also intensifying. In the second half of 1980s, there were more than 3,000 merged banks in the United States. In addition to M&A activities, the rule that large commercial banks are not allowed to cross continents stipulated in 1927 law has been gradually broken. 1In June, 1985, the agreement of local banks to set up correspondent banks and branches through bilateral or multilateral agreements was ruled as legal by the High Court.

If the success of the United States is due to high technology and entrepreneurship, then chips and software are superficial, and the real cutting-edge work is concentrated in finance. For example, in 199 1 year, the US military and multinational forces spent $60 billion, nearly 1 10,000 troops, dropped more than 200,000 tons of bombs, killed and injured 200,000 Iraqi soldiers and civilians, destroyed thousands of Iraqi tanks and drove Saddam's troops out of Kuwait. However, it has been 10 years, and it still can't catch up with Saddam. In the meantime, I don't know how many tricks I thought, and even the people watching were impatient. As for Soros, he gave orders out of sight, and several young traders pressed the keyboard and mouse a few times, crushing the whole Southeast Asian countries, Japan, South Korea and Russia. Today, the world is still in a state of panic, and financial aftershocks occur frequently.

1before the advent of the euro in June 1999, the only medium of economic globalization was the dollar. On the surface, the mark and the yen are also used for foreign exchange reserves and settlement, but in the final analysis, the dollar has the final say. Dependence on the dollar has created a kind of power and status for financial and monetary policy experts in Washington, which has increasingly led them to deprive other countries of their interests. In the dark battle around financial dominance, it is the exchange rate that judges power. And the US dollar interest rate policy that harms others and benefits others is constantly creating huge benefits. The foreign exchange market is definitely running at the pace of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Allen Greenspan. Experts can do nothing about this phenomenon, which just shows that their theory ignores the activities of people with dollar power interests in the world financial network.