Since the beginning of this year, China's economic development has made new achievements, manifested in the acceleration of growth, initially showing a good development momentum of the unity of speed and structure, quality and efficiency. At the same time, the enthusiasm for accelerating development in various regions is high, and many indicators have reached new highs in recent years. However, some new situations and problems have emerged in the economic operation. In addition to the phenomenon of blind investment and low-level redundant construction in some industries, there are some one-sided understandings and practices. If some areas have high enthusiasm for accelerating economic development, but are not alert to the possible overheating of the economy; There is much research on increasing investment and little consideration on starting consumer demand; There are many countermeasures to develop urban economy, but few measures to solve the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers; Pay more attention to increasing the economic aggregate and less attention to adjusting the economic structure; Fully understand the positive effect of economic development trend and underestimate the possible negative lag effect. These new situations and ideological problems should be highly vigilant.

First, judging from the situation in the past few months, China's economy has several obvious characteristics:

1, the growth accelerated, and the GDP in the first quarter increased by 9.9%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, which is also the fastest growth since 1997.

2. Structural optimization, accelerated adjustment of agricultural planting structure, rapid development of high technology, and good development momentum of telecommunications, logistics, consulting, community services and other service industries.

3. Efficiency has been improved. In the first three months, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 94% year on year, and the national fiscal revenue increased by 37%.

4. The price rebounded. In the first quarter, the overall consumer price level rose by 0.5% year-on-year. In particular, some leading price indexes rose significantly, and the ex-factory price of production materials even rose by 5.5%.

This year's good situation is hard-won, so we should cherish it. At the same time, we must attach great importance to the new situation and new problems in economic operation.

1, "SARS" has brought a huge impact on tourism, aviation, catering, foreign trade and utilization of foreign capital, and its impact on normal domestic production and business activities and people's lives is increasingly exposed. If it lasts for a long time, it will seriously affect the stable growth of the national economy.

2. There are signs of overheated investment in some industries. For example, real estate investment is growing rapidly and its structure is unreasonable. In the first quarter, the investment in real estate development increased by 34.9% year-on-year, much higher than the growth of 2 1.9% last year. Another example is that the development of metallurgy, building materials, textiles, automobiles and other industries continues to heat up, driving up the prices of raw materials and fuels. The growth rate of some heavy industrial products, especially high-energy products, is obviously extraordinary, which intensifies the contradiction of tight power supply in some places. On the basis of high-speed growth last year, the investment in the steel industry soared by 153.7% in the first quarter of this year, and a considerable part of the new capacity was low-grade, heavily polluted and energy-intensive. The expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity seriously exceeds the market demand; Vertical kiln cement banned by the state has revived in some places; Investment in the textile industry increased by 65.8%; Automobile production has increased by 54%. Some places blindly develop automobile projects under the protection of the government, and the contradiction between small scale, scattered layout and weak independent development ability of the automobile industry is prominent. Because over-investment in some industries mostly depends on bank loans, once the market demand changes, it will inevitably increase financial risks.

3. The problem of redundant construction is still very serious and presents some new features:

First, the resurgence of repeated construction in some industries. In some places, a number of projects such as steel, cement, glass, ferroalloy and electrolytic aluminum have been built regardless of the national ban and market supply and demand. Small coal mines, small steel, small cement, small glass and other enterprises that some countries have made great efforts to shut down have revived, and some surplus production capacity that has been eliminated and compressed has been put into production again.

Second, high-tech industries, mainly information industries, have experienced the problem of redundant construction. It is understood that many cities have invested or plan to invest tens of billions of yuan to produce semiconductor materials. After the completion of these projects, the production capacity will greatly exceed the current domestic market demand and possible export volume. The construction of optical cable in the whole country, especially in the eastern region, has also been seriously repeated, and a large number of national public communication network resources have been idle.

Third, repeated and advanced infrastructure construction. In some areas, airports are too dense to be fully utilized after completion. Large-scale deep-water berths newly built and expanded along the coast and along the river have become the wind, and the throughput capacity is seriously idle. Some economically backward places have spent a lot of money to build expressways, and the traffic volume is very small, so it is difficult to make full use of them. If this situation is left unchecked, it will further aggravate the contradiction of overcapacity in the general processing industry and delay the process of structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.

4. Consumption growth is still slow. In the first quarter, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 27.8% year-on-year. However, the growth of consumer demand is not satisfactory. Compared with the substantial growth of various economic indicators, the growth of consumer demand is slightly slow. From June 65438 to March this year, the retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.2%. Although it is higher than the same period of last year, it is 0.8 percentage points lower than that of June 65438+ 10, 0.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate of GDP, 18.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of investment and 24.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate of export. In the first three months of this year, the consumer confidence index showed a downward trend. In March, the consumer confidence index decreased by 0. 1 percentage point compared with1October. From this perspective, consumer demand has not kept pace with economic development.

5. The contradiction between supply and demand of some production factors has further intensified. For example, power supply in some areas is tight. In recent years, the growth rate of power demand has continued to rise. After 9.2% growth in 200 1, it increased by1.7% in 2002 and further increased by 16% in the first quarter of this year.

At present, many areas have been blacked out. It is expected that the contradiction between power supply and demand will be more prominent in summer. Another example is that most areas north of the Yellow River are facing serious water shortage, and the dependence on imports of some major mineral raw materials is further increased due to domestic shortage.

6. The pressure of employment and re-employment has increased. At present, China has entered the peak period of labor force growth, the transfer of rural surplus labor force has accelerated, there are more laid-off and unemployed people, college graduates have increased more than the previous year, and the contradiction between employment and re-employment has become more prominent. In order to consolidate and develop the good situation of China's economy, we should first unify our understanding. We should not only see the good results of economic development, but also be blindly optimistic; We should not only maintain rapid economic growth, but also guard against overheating in some industries. Especially the negative impact of SARS on the economy, must not be underestimated. At the same time, effective measures should be taken to focus on the following work:

Second, focus on the following tasks: 1. To win these two tough battles resolutely, we must properly handle the relationship between SARS prevention and economic work, persist in grasping the major event of SARS prevention and control on the one hand, and unswervingly grasp economic construction on the other. At present, efforts should be made to control the spread of the epidemic, prevent the spread and rebound, and make full mental preparations and work preparations for the arduousness, complexity and repetitiveness of SARS prevention and control work, and we should not be careless and take it lightly. This is one aspect. On the other hand, we should estimate the adverse impact of SARS on the economy more seriously, make full preparations, do solid work, and do everything possible to reduce the losses caused by SARS to a minimum. 2. Adhering to the policy of expanding domestic demand is the basic foothold and long-term strategic policy of China's economic development. We can't relax just because the economic situation has improved in the past few months. Now we must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of the policies, and the strength of the policies cannot be weakened. At the same time, in view of the new situation and new problems in the economic operation, we should take measures to further stimulate consumer demand, especially in rural areas, and do everything possible to increase farmers' income. 3. We should adopt the method of development, mainly adopting economic means, distinguishing situations, making timely fine adjustments, solving outstanding contradictions and problems in economic life, guiding, protecting and giving full play to the enthusiasm of all parties to speed up development, and preventing major economic fluctuations. Among them, it is necessary to properly control the land supply in the "overheated" areas of real estate, adjust the supply structure of high-grade commercial housing and ordinary housing, and strictly control the construction of high-grade housing such as villas. It is necessary to strengthen the binding force of urban planning and give full play to the regulatory role of monetary policy. For other industries with overheated investment, it is necessary to plan and adjust the development of the industry to curb its excessive growth. In short, we should fully understand the current economic situation, firmly establish the courage and confidence to overcome all kinds of difficulties, solve the contradictions and problems in economic operation in time, and strive to maintain the good momentum of China's economic development through solid work.