First of all, affected by the financial crisis, the demand of the three major trading partners of the United States, Japan and Europe dropped sharply, and the international market shrank. According to statistics in recent years, the markets of the United States, Japan and Europe account for more than 60% of China's export share. However, due to the economic downturn in the United States, Japan and Europe caused by the financial crisis, demand will inevitably decrease. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2009, the global economic growth rate will continue to decrease by 1.5 percentage points, the US economy will decrease by 0.7%, the euro zone economy will decrease by 0.5%, Japan will decrease by 0.2%, and emerging and developing economies will increase by 5%. In addition, according to the IMF's preliminary forecast, world trade will increase by 2. 1% in 2009, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the previous year's 4.6%. The import and export trade of developed economies has fallen sharply, and imports will drop by 0. 1% compared with 2008, down by 1.9 percentage points compared with the previous year. The export growth rate will reach 1.2%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous year; Imports from emerging markets and developing countries increased by 5.2%, and the growth rate dropped by 5.7 percentage points over the previous year; Exports increased by 5.3%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. In this context, China's exports will be greatly affected.
Secondly, trade protectionism is rampant and trade friction will intensify. Trade friction has a great relationship with the development of global or national economy, but when the economy develops well, trade friction will decrease, and when the economic development weakens, trade friction will intensify. In 2008, affected by the financial crisis, China encountered a large number of trade barriers, and trade frictions intensified. Take the trade remedy investigation as an example. In 2008, the United States launched five joint anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on China's stainless steel pressure pipes, pipe materials, citric acid, trailing lawn maintenance equipment, kitchen racks, clothes hangers and other products, involving a sum of 5 1 10,000 US dollars. At the same time, the United States initiated five anti-dumping investigations on China products such as bed inner spring covers, involving a total amount of 280 million US dollars. In addition, the United States initiated a 1 anti-circumvention investigation on China's cut-to-length carbon steel plates. In 2008, the EU initiated six anti-dumping investigations on cold-rolled stainless steel plates, candles, stranded wires, wires, seamless steel pipes and aluminum foils in China. In addition, the EU initiated four anti-dumping sunset reviews on China's steel pipes, leather shoes and boots, furfuryl alcohol and loose-leaf rings. In addition, China also encountered foreign technical barriers to trade. According to statistics, in recent years, due to foreign technical barriers to trade, China has lost at least tens of billions of dollars every year. The five countries and regions that encounter the most technical barriers to trade are the United States, the European Union, Japan, ASEAN and Russia. The main trading partners' technical trade measures affecting China's industrial products export focus on six aspects: certification requirements, technical standards requirements, product personal safety requirements, environmental protection requirements, toxic and harmful substances limits and packaging materials requirements. The types of technical trade measures that affect the export of agricultural products are concentrated in five aspects: requirements for pesticide and veterinary drug residues in food, requirements for health indicators such as bacteria, requirements for the limit of harmful substances such as heavy metals, requirements for the registration of processing plants and warehouses, and requirements for food labels. The top five industries affected by foreign technical trade measures are mechanical and electrical instruments, rubber and plastic leather, agricultural products and food, textile shoes and hats and chemical metals. The top five provinces affected by foreign technical trade measures are Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Henan. In 2009, affected by the financial crisis, China will suffer more trade frictions, making it more difficult to export.
Finally, China's exports will also be affected by rising production costs, financing difficulties and rising financing costs of export enterprises, uncertainty of export policy adjustment and pressure of RMB appreciation. Most of the above impacts are external to the enterprise. At the same time, the difficulties encountered by export enterprises are also related to the problems of the enterprise or the industry itself, such as lack of self-discipline in the industry and vicious competition among enterprises; Insufficient investment in research and development, technology and equipment, most of which are labor-intensive products; Lack of integrity, do not pay attention to the image of the enterprise itself. These factors also affect the export of enterprise products to a certain extent.
Affected by the financial crisis, export enterprises are facing the above difficulties, such as sales difficulties, reduced profitability or even losses, reduced operating rate, suspension of production or closure, and unemployment of workers. At the same time, export enterprises are facing the risk of payment recovery. Due to the economic recession in importing countries, the ability of enterprises and individuals to pay has declined, and credit has decreased, making payment difficult. After the products are exported, the payment cannot be recovered in time or at all. In this situation, in order to cope with the export dilemma under the financial crisis, the government and enterprises should do the following work:
First, take a number of measures to expand domestic demand. At present, expanding domestic demand is imminent. Only by increasing domestic demand can we digest the excess domestic production capacity, thus eliminating the root cause of the huge foreign trade surplus. The key to expanding domestic demand is to promote market-oriented reforms in modern service industries such as finance, education, transportation and environment, that is, to expand domestic demand by increasing effective supply.
Second, continue to increase export promotion policies. Promote the introduction of policies to increase the export tax rebate rate of some products, promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, support the development of key regions of processing trade in the central and western regions, and promote the gradient transfer of processing trade. Coordinate the financial sector to improve the export financial environment, increase credit support for enterprises, improve the financing guarantee conditions of enterprises, and improve the export credit risk guarantee mechanism.
Third, explore new markets. On the one hand, China's export enterprises should adjust the export market structure in time, strive to find new export markets, develop diversified markets and adopt market diversification strategies. For example, enterprises should strive to explore the export markets of emerging economies and developing countries such as South Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, South America and Eastern Europe.
Fourth, change the mode of economic growth, promote structural upgrading and optimize the structure of export commodities. Pay attention to the development of high-tech and environmental protection products, promote the export of self-owned brand products and large machinery, complete sets of equipment, superior agricultural products and labor-intensive products, and increase support for technological innovation and participation in international competition of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Fifth, vigorously develop export-oriented service trade. Improve the service trade promotion policy and support the export of services in key areas such as software, culture and Chinese medicine. In advantageous industries such as aviation, transportation, finance and tourism, we will cultivate a number of internationally competitive service trade enterprises, encourage small and medium-sized service enterprises to carry out foreign exchanges and cooperation, and cultivate service trade brands.
Sixthly, in order to prevent the risk of export payment recovery, Zhejiang enterprises should pay attention to the collection and evaluation of importers' credit standing, pay attention to export credit insurance, and improve enterprise financial system and risk control system.
Seventh, Zhejiang enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, should pay attention to introducing and cultivating financial talents to guard against exchange rate risks. In the global financial crisis and the world economic recession, countries are affected differently, and exchange rate changes are inevitable. If the RMB appreciates, the foreign exchange received by exports will depreciate, causing actual losses to exporters. Only by introducing financial talents can enterprises avoid unnecessary losses caused by exchange rate changes.
Respondent: aaalu 5200-5 level manager 2-24 14:48
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The financial crisis has a great influence on Zhejiang's foreign economic relations.
Source: Website has been created and published: 2008-1-14 8: 25: 00 Click: 76.
At present, the financial turmoil originated from the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has intensified and started to spread rapidly to the real economy. The shadow of the economic crisis hangs over major economies, and the decline of global economic growth is a foregone conclusion.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth rate will drop sharply from 5.0% in 2007 to 3.9% in 2008, and continue to drop to 3.0% in 2009, among which the economic growth rate of western developed countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany and France will be close to zero or negative in 2009.
Judging from the major developed economies such as the United States, Japan and the European Union, the signs of economic recession are particularly obvious. According to preliminary data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. gross domestic product decreased by 0.3% at an annual rate in the third quarter, and the U.S. economy grew by 0.9% and 2.8% at an annual rate in the first two quarters of this year, which indicates that the U.S. economy is on the verge of recession. In September, the US manufacturing activity index was only 43.5, the lowest since 200 1 and 10. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor 10 10, the unemployment rate in September was 6. 1%, which was the same as last month and the highest level since September 2003. 6543810-September, the number of employed people in the United States decreased by 760,000, and the increase in unemployment directly led to the contraction of consumer spending and the decrease in imports. With the spread of the financial turmoil in the United States, the economic growth of other economies in the world has also begun to slow down significantly. France, Germany, Britain, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and other countries have lowered their GDP growth expectations. The initial GDP of euro zone 15 countries in the second quarter increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, showing the first negative growth since 1995 was recorded. Japan's GDP in the second quarter decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, which was the first contraction in a year. Due to the sharp increase in imports and weak export growth, Japan experienced its first monthly trade deficit in 26 years in August. Traditional net exporters such as Japan have deficits, which shows that the economic slowdown in the United States has a great impact on global economic and trade growth.
Entrepreneurs and consumers are also very pessimistic about the economic prospects. According to GFK's survey, the German consumer confidence index in September was only 1.5, far below market expectations. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline this year, the lowest level since June 2003. The economic confidence index of the euro zone in September dropped from 88.5 last month to 87.7, the lowest level since the end of 200/kloc-0. Japan's household consumer confidence index in September was 3 1.2, the lowest since 1.982.
At the same time, the economic growth rate of emerging market economies such as India, Brazil and ASEAN, which have made outstanding foreign trade performance in China this year, has also dropped from a high level. According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the economic growth of emerging market economies and developing economies will continue to slow down, and the annual growth rate will drop from 8% in 2007 to 6.9%, and further slow down to 6. 1% in 2009, and the inflationary pressure will increase obviously. Vietnam's economy is in chaos. Vietnam's stock market fell by 60%, the property market fell by half, the Vietnamese dong depreciated by 30% against the US dollar, and the inflation rate reached 28.3% in August, the highest level since 17. In July, Thailand's inflation rate also reached 9.2%, hitting a new high of 10. Latin America reached 8.9%, Singapore and Russia were 6.45% and 14.7% respectively. South Korea's PPI increased by 12.5% year-on-year in July, hitting a new high since 1998. India, the Philippines and other countries also have similar problems, with high inflation and a substantial increase in some trade deficits.
China's economy is inevitably affected, and its economic growth rate slows down. According to the Autumn Report 2008 issued by China Academy of Social Sciences, the GDP growth rate of China in 2008 was about 10. 1%, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than last year. From June to September, China's total import and export volume increased by 25.2%, of which exports increased by 22.3%, which was 4.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From the perspective of Zhejiang Province, the downward trend of economic growth is also obvious. In the first quarter, Zhejiang's GDP increased by 1 1.8% compared with the same period of last year, and fell back to 1 1.4% in the first half of the year, and increased by 1.6% in the third quarter compared with the same period of last year, down by 4. 1 percentage point.
Foreign economy, especially foreign trade, has always been one of the main driving forces for Zhejiang's economic growth. In 2007, Zhejiang's foreign trade dependence (the ratio of total import and export value to Zhejiang's GDP) and export dependence (the ratio of total export value to Zhejiang's GDP) reached 7 1.6% and 5 1.9% respectively, which were 69.5 and 49.9 percentage points higher than 1.980 respectively. Especially since joining the WTO in 200 1, Zhejiang's foreign trade has grown rapidly for six consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 32.4%, which is 5.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate in the same period, of which exports have increased by 33.2%, which is 5.2 percentage points higher than the national average. It is more than 10 percentage points higher than the average annual growth rate of 210 in the previous 20 years. This rapid growth benefits from the historical high growth rate of the world economy and the relatively relaxed domestic policy environment. At present, the world economy is declining or even declining, and the superposition effect of domestic macro-control policies and the frequent changes of "three rates and two prices" (tax rebate rate, exchange rate, interest rate, raw material price and labor price) have great influence on Zhejiang's foreign economic development.
Changes in the international situation have had a certain impact on all aspects of Zhejiang's foreign economy:
1. The growth rate of exports dropped significantly. From June 5438 to September, the total export volume of Zhejiang Province was1178.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The growth rate is 2 percentage points higher than that of the whole country, but it is 4.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year and 0.8 percentage points lower than that of/kloc-0 in June-June. If the appreciation of the US dollar is deducted, the total export value in RMB from June 5438 to September only increased by 13.3%, down by 10.4 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year, and the decline was 2.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.
The decline in export growth has also had a great impact on the production and sales of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province. From June 5438 to September, the sales output value of export delivery value, an industrial enterprise above designated size in Zhejiang Province, dropped by 3.2 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year, which affected the sales output value to drop by nearly 40%. Some industries with high export dependence, such as clothing, leather, furniture, communication equipment, etc. Under the influence of export slowdown, production dropped sharply, and the growth rate of added value dropped by 4.5 and 4. 1 respectively compared with the same period of last year.
2. Weak utilization of foreign capital. 10-September, 65,438 foreign direct investment enterprises were newly established in Zhejiang province, with contracted foreign investment of109.8 billion US dollars, down by 40.6% and 16.6% respectively. The growth rate of actual utilization of foreign capital shows a downward trend month by month. From June to September, the actually utilized foreign capital in Zhejiang Province was US$ 7.93 billion, up by 1 1.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, and dropped by 3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. In particular, the investment of developed economies such as the United States and the European Union in Zhejiang Province has fallen sharply. On the basis of a steep dive in 2007, the utilization of US capital continued to decline (in 2007, the contracted and actually utilized US capital in Zhejiang Province decreased by 53.6% and 23.6% respectively, while the contracted and actually utilized foreign capital in Zhejiang Province increased by 6.8% and 16.6% respectively), and the actually utilized US capital from June to September in 438 was US$ 330 million.
3. Due to the high dependence on the markets of the United States and the European Union, compared with other domestic provinces and cities, the economic recession of the United States and the European Union and the contraction of import demand have a greater impact on Zhejiang's exports. In 2007, the export concentration of Zhejiang Province to the United States and the European Union reached 45.8%, which was 6.6 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. From 2000 to 2007, the average proportion of Zhejiang's exports to the United States reached 20%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points over the previous 20 years. In 2007, Zhejiang's total exports to the United States accounted for 10% of Zhejiang's GDP, which was 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. The dependence on EU exports is as high as 13.8%, which is 5.3 percentage points higher than that of the whole country. From June 5438 to September, Zhejiang's exports to the European Union were US$ 32.62 billion and US$ 20 1 billion, respectively, which remained the first and second largest export markets in Zhejiang Province, increasing by 28.5% and 8.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rates dropped by 8.2 and 6.2 percentage points, respectively, which were three times higher than the national level and 1.6 percentage points respectively. Among them, exports to the United States have been running at a low level since the second half of last year, with single-digit growth in most months and even negative growth in some months. In fact, if the appreciation of the US dollar is deducted, the RMB-denominated exports to the United States have experienced negative growth from June 5438 to September. According to estimates, due to the weak US market in the first three quarters, Zhejiang's exports increased by nearly 4 percentage points. Since the beginning of this year, the export to Japan, another major market in Zhejiang Province, has continued its weak growth trend, with the growth rates of 9.2% and 7.7% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, and the export has rebounded slightly this year. From June to September, Zhejiang's exports to Japan increased by 13.5%, an increase of 7.2 percentage points over the same period last year.
4. The export growth rate of all kinds of commodities has declined to varying degrees, especially traditional bulk export commodities. From June 5438 to September, the export of mechanical and electrical products, clothing and clothing accessories, furniture and its parts, footwear, lamps and lighting devices, travel goods and luggage increased by 26.8%, 15.3%, 27.6%, 10.5% and 15.6% respectively. As the export markets of Motorola (mainly producing telephones) and Toshiba (mainly producing notebook computers) are still depressed, the export of telephone and automatic data processing equipment and components in Zhejiang Province has declined again. The decline of telephone export increased from 19.5% in the same period of last year to 5 1.8%, and the export of automatic data processing equipment and parts decreased from 5. 1% in the same period of last year to 65438.
Many enterprises have reduced their export scale or even suspended their export. Since the beginning of this year, many private export enterprises have faced unprecedented operational difficulties due to the weakening of international market demand, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the tight supply of factors and the increase of costs. From the data point of view, the export growth rate of private enterprises has shown a downward trend since the second half of last year, and the exports of those enterprises with competitive prices, low technology content and single market have dropped significantly or even declined. From June 5438 to September, among more than 2 1000 private enterprises in Zhejiang Province (accounting for 70% of all export enterprises), about half of the enterprises' exports decreased year-on-year, and nearly 1900 private enterprises stopped their own export business.
6. Enterprises are pessimistic about export prospects. According to the questionnaire survey of 69 key export-related enterprises, only 22.4% enterprises think that exports will increase in the next quarter, and 32.8% enterprises think that exports will decrease. The export boom index was 89.6, down 10.4 points from the first quarter. Among them, the prosperity indexes of major export markets such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, Hong Kong and ASEAN are all in the recession range, and only the export prosperity indexes of Russia and India are above the critical point of prosperity.
7. The growth rate of the tourism market has slowed down. Tourism, known as "sunrise industry", is extremely sensitive to changes in economic fluctuations. From June 5438 to September, Zhejiang received 4010.4 million inbound tourists, up 7.2% year-on-year. The foreign exchange income from tourism was USD 229,000, up by 13.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 12.9 and 8.7 percentage points respectively. 10-September, 65,438,199,000 American tourists came to Zhejiang Province, and the growth rate dropped sharply from 25.2% in the same period last year to 1.2%, among which 75,000 American tourists were received in the third quarter, down 4.4% year-on-year.
Positive changes in the current foreign economic operation
Since the second half of the year, the state's macro-control has shifted from "double prevention" to "one insurance and one prevention". Recently, the state has introduced policies such as lowering the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, and temporarily exempting the interest income tax on savings deposits, which shows that the tight macro-control policies have been moderately relaxed, the CPI index has fallen, and the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable. Compared with the same period of last year, the RMB not only failed to beat the euro and the yen within 1-9 months. Internationally, a large-scale government rescue plan is being vigorously launched. Although the effect needs further verification, it shows the determination and strength of the governments of major economies to curb the deepening of the crisis. Zhejiang's foreign economy, especially foreign trade, has also undergone some positive changes:
From June 5438 to September, exports rebounded slightly, increasing by 24. 1% in that month, 4. 1 percentage point higher than that in the previous month and 3.7 percentage points higher than that in July, which was the highest monthly increase of exports since the second half of the year. Among them, the export to the United States in September was 2.58 billion US dollars, which was the best level of export to the United States in a single month in history, with a monthly increase of 19.3%, and also the best performance of 1 month since the second half of this year.
2. Export enterprises have the trend that the stronger the strong, the weaker the weak, the survival of the fittest. From June 5438 to September, the export of private enterprises in Zhejiang Province was US$ 60.49 billion, accounting for 5 1.3% of Zhejiang's export, up 32.5% year-on-year, which was higher than the average growth rate of Zhejiang Province by 8.2 percentage points, and also faster than the export growth rate of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises by 12.5 and 24.4 percentage points. Although about half of the enterprises with competitive prices, low technology content and single market showed obvious decline or even negative growth, the exports of enterprises with high technology content and strong market development ability increased significantly. Many enterprises actively explore the international market, seek benefits from technology and management, and still maintain rapid growth. In the first three quarters, about one-third of private enterprises' exports increased by more than 50% year-on-year, which greatly boosted the export growth of Zhejiang Province. The stronger the export enterprises are, the more obvious the trend of survival of the fittest will be.