China's economy is expected to accelerate and take the lead in recovery.

The effect of the stimulus policy is gradually emerging, and the macro economy is on the rise.

Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has initially curbed the rapid decline of growth rate under the effect of the national stimulus policy package, showing a trend of stabilization and recovery, especially in the second quarter, China's GDP increased by 7.9% year-on-year, reversing the trend of deceleration for seven consecutive quarters. The stimulus of a package of policies and favorable factors for China's medium-and long-term development will push the economy to continue to pick up in the next stage, and the annual GDP growth is expected to be around 8%.

Since the end of last year, the state has issued a package of stimulus policies such as the 4 trillion investment plan, the ten major industrial revitalization plans, improving people's livelihood and stabilizing exports, which have played a positive role in curbing the rapid economic decline and stabilizing the confidence of investors and consumers. China's macro-economy shows a trend of stabilization and recovery.

Macro-economy has stabilized and rebounded, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, the macroeconomic growth rate has stabilized and rebounded. In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 1.39862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7. 1%, an increase of 654.38+0 percentage points over the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6. 1%, reaching a quarterly low of 10. In the second quarter, it rebounded strongly, increasing by 7.9% year-on-year, reversing the slowdown for seven consecutive quarters.

Second, the role of the policy made the economy hit bottom three months ahead of schedule. According to the analysis of "China Macroeconomic Prosperity Monitoring and Early Warning System" developed by the National Information Center, the leading comprehensive index representing the future trend of the macro economy has bottomed out in June+10, 2008, and has been steadily rising for seven consecutive months. The consistent composite index representing the synchronous performance of macro-economy bottomed out in February 2009 and rose for four consecutive months from March to June. Generally speaking, it can be judged that the downward trend of China's macro-economy has been contained and started to stabilize and rebound. Under normal circumstances, the bottom of the consensus composite index generally lags behind the bottom of the previous composite index by about 6 months, but under the strong policy stimulus, the lag period is shortened to 3 months, and the macro economy bottomed out 3 months ahead of schedule.

Third, domestic demand has become the main driving force for economic growth, while external demand has obviously dragged down the economy. In the first half of the year, among the three major demands of GDP growth, the contribution rate of total capital formation (including fixed asset investment and inventory) to economic growth was 87.6%, which boosted GDP growth by 6.2 percentage points; The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is 53.4%, which drives GDP growth by 3.8 percentage points; The contribution rate of net export (external demand) to economic growth was -4 1%, and GDP increased by 2.9 percentage points.

Economic growth will continue to accelerate in the second half of the year.

The economy has successfully bottomed out, but the current economic recovery is mainly based on the short-term rebound of inventory adjustment, which is not the same as the trend economic recovery. The material basis of economic recovery is that enterprises start a new round of large-scale investment in fixed equipment renewal, provided that the capacity utilization rate returns to normal level.

In the next stage, China's economy will face the severe challenge of digesting excess capacity and further digesting real estate inventory. The global economic downturn and global overcapacity will make China's "de-capacity" process a long way to go. In this regard, we should not only see that the policy effect of China's package plan to deal with the international financial crisis has been further manifested and the fundamentals of China's medium and long-term development have not changed, but also see that the complicated and changeable domestic and international environment and the long-standing institutional and structural problems in China have adversely affected the economy in the second half of the year. Among them, there are six factors that affect China's economic operation in the second half of the year.

First, the growth rate of industrial production will continue to rise steadily. In the first half of 2009, industrial production basically completed the task of "destocking", and the inventory of some products fell more than the actual needs. In the second half of the year, with the expected improvement of macro-economy and market demand, industrial enterprises will enter the stage of moderately replenishing inventory.

In the second half of the year, under the influence of the economic stabilization of major developed countries such as the United States and Europe, the accelerated decline of China's foreign exports will be restrained, and the expected decline will be slightly narrowed, which is conducive to the gradual recovery of industrial export delivery value and the steady recovery of industrial production in the next step. In addition, PMI, the leading index of industrial production, has been rising for six consecutive months and has been above the contraction-expansion boundary since March. The higher leading index shows that industrial growth will increase steadily in the second half of the year.

Based on comprehensive analysis, it is preliminarily estimated that the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by about 8.5% in 2009, which is 65,438 0.5 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. However, this level is still lower than the lowest level in recent 20 years (the growth rate of industrial added value is 8.9% from 65438 to 0999).

Second, the growth rate of investment declined slightly in the second half of the year, but it will still maintain rapid growth. As the effect of the economic stimulus policy will continue to show, the recovery of the land market will improve the matching ability of local governments' income and funds, and the recent notice issued by the State Council on adjusting the capital ratio of fixed assets investment projects and the rising volume and price of the real estate market, the factors driving investment growth will remain relatively strong in the second half of the year, and investment will continue to maintain a high operating trend; However, the surge in new loans is unsustainable, and the benefits of enterprises are still declining. Weak external demand and overcapacity will inhibit investment growth, and the investment growth rate has dropped from the first half of the year.

It is preliminarily estimated that the annual growth rate of urban fixed assets investment is about 30%, and the annual growth rate of social investment is about 3 1%. As the adjustment of inventory investment mainly occurs in the first quarter, it is expected that the contribution rate of investment demand to economic growth will increase quarter by quarter, and investment will remain the most important driving force for economic growth.

Third, the policy of expanding consumption was further strengthened, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods continued to grow steadily. First, the stable income of residents will promote consumption to continue to heat up. Under the influence of the steady growth of income of urban and rural residents, it is expected that the retail scale of social consumer goods will continue to expand in the second half of the year.

Second, policies promote the formation of new consumption hotspots. Home appliances and other products will become a new consumption hotspot after housing cars. On the one hand, in the second half of the year, with the expansion of the types and improvement of the quality of home appliances going to the countryside, the sales of rural home appliances will increase at a faster speed. On the other hand, the State Council's "trade-in" policy subsidy measures will promote the consumption of urban household appliances market. In addition, due to the increasing expectations of future inflation from all walks of life, the consumption of precious commodities will also grow rapidly.

Third, the consumption situation in leading markets such as real estate and automobiles has improved. Among them, housing consumption is expected to continue to pick up. Because the current housing demand is mainly improvement and investment demand, buyers have strong economic strength and ability to pay, and stable purchasing power will promote the rapid growth of housing consumption in the second half of the year; Automobile consumption will increase steadily. The continuous improvement of automobile consumption policies such as encouraging automobile scrapping, expanding the scope of subsidies for automobiles going to the countryside, and supporting farmers to buy light trucks directly will promote the sustained and rapid growth of automobile consumption in China. It is predicted that the upgrading trend of China's automobile consumption structure will gradually expand from big cities to second-and third-tier cities and rural areas in the second half of the year, and the sales of automobiles with low prices and low fuel consumption will continue to grow.

Generally speaking, in the second half of the year, with the economic stabilization and recovery, consumer demand will continue to grow steadily, driven by policy effects and long-term factors. However, employment pressure will greatly affect the income growth of residents, and consumer confidence will remain at a historical low, thus affecting the consumption level. It is preliminarily estimated that the retail sales of social consumer goods will reach12,476 billion yuan in 2009, with a nominal increase of 15.0%.

Fourth, the decline in foreign trade exports is expected to gradually narrow, and the trade surplus will decline. Under the influence of external demand recovery, effective policies and rising prices, it is expected that the decline of China's foreign trade import and export will narrow in the second half of the year.

First, the deterioration of external demand is expected to ease. In May, the retail sales of goods in the United States increased by 0.5%, the largest increase in four months, and the manufacturing prosperity index reached the highest value since September 2008. Some leading economic indexes in the euro zone and Japan have also shown an upward trend for several months, which indicates that the continuous deterioration of economic operation will be alleviated. The economic stabilization of major trading partners in the second half of the year will help improve the external demand environment in China, and it is expected that the decline in exports will be narrowed. At the same time, with the stabilization and recovery of China's economy, the decline in imports in the second half of the year is expected to be significantly narrowed.

Second, the effect of foreign trade support policies will be further revealed. First of all, measures such as raising the export tax rebate rate seven times, relaxing the restricted catalogue of processing trade, and changing the reserve for processing trade account from real to virtual will reduce the cost of export enterprises and enhance their export capacity; Secondly, implementing cross-border RMB settlement and expanding the scope of RMB swap agreements will help enterprises avoid exchange rate risks and increase their willingness to import and export; Thirdly, increasing the export credit line and expanding the coverage of export insurance can promote the increase of overseas market share of export products in the future.

Third, the rebound in import and export prices will slow down the decline in nominal growth. On the one hand, some international commodity prices have recently shown signs of bottoming out. It is predicted that in the context of the stabilization of the world economy, oil, grain, non-ferrous metals and other commodities will continue to fluctuate upward in the second half of the year, driving the price index of China's import and export commodities to rebound. On the other hand, China's import and export commodity price index reached its peak in the third quarter of last year, and then quickly fell back. Affected by the price factors in the same period last year, it is expected that China's import and export commodity price index will rise steadily in the second half of the year. Therefore, the downward trend of nominal growth of imports and exports will be alleviated by price factors, and the nominal growth rate of imports and exports, especially imports, will gradually approach the actual growth rate.

To sum up, the decline of China's foreign trade exports slowed down in the second half of the year, and it is estimated that the annual decline will be about17.5%; The decline in imports was significantly lower than that in the first half of the year, and the annual decline was16%; The annual trade surplus has dropped to about $220 billion.

Fifth, the downward cycle of prices is coming to an end, and CPI is expected to turn from negative to positive during the year. In the first half of the year, new loans amounted to 6.37 trillion yuan, three times that of the same period last year, far exceeding the regulation target of 5 trillion yuan for the whole year. We can't ignore the influence of the rapid growth of money and credit on the future price increase. In addition, the sharp increase in liquidity and extremely loose monetary policy have made inflation expectations gradually strong.

According to another calculation, in the second half of this year, the hikes of CPI decreased from-1.5% in the first half of this year to -0.9%, and reached zero in 65438+February. Therefore, the influence of the cardinal factor on the price will gradually weaken. However, the transmission effect of rising prices of primary products such as oil and gas, the impact of rising prices of public products such as water, and the rebound of international commodity prices have gradually increased the new price increase factors. Of course, overcapacity will curb the rise in prices. Summer grain production has increased for six consecutive years, and sufficient food supply will greatly curb the rise in consumer prices.

Overall, CPI and PPI will still show negative growth in the third quarter, and the decline of PPI may even increase. Considering the gradual recovery of market demand, the mitigation of the influence of hikes and the enhancement of import prices and liquidity, it is expected that CPI will have a positive growth before the end of the year, while PPI growth will be difficult to return to normal during the year. It is estimated that CPI will decrease by about 0.5% and PPI by about 5% year-on-year.

Sixth, some industries have a serious overcapacity and it is difficult to cultivate new growth points. First, the problem of overcapacity in some industries is outstanding. At present, overcapacity in some industries in China is serious: on the one hand, China's economy continued to grow at an average rate of 1 1% during the five years from 2003 to 2007, resulting in a large amount of production capacity; On the other hand, the serious shortage of external demand leads to overcapacity in some export-oriented industries. In addition, the current problem of overcapacity is global and complex. Not only backward overcapacity, but also some advanced overcapacity, increasing the difficulty of "de-capacity".

Second, the progress of "restructuring" is slow, and it is difficult to cultivate new growth points. With the gradual confirmation of the bottom of economic operation, macro-control policies should gradually shift from "fully ensuring growth" to "paying more attention to structural adjustment and cultivating new growth points". Of course, the task of adjusting the economic structure and cultivating new economic growth points is even more arduous.

Third, there are problems with the matching funds of local governments. The low rate of local matching funds makes it impossible for some projects to start in time as planned, and some projects that have already started progress slowly. If this situation continues to spread, it will not only affect the scheduled implementation of investment projects, but also "slow down" the central economic stimulus plan and hinder the overall recovery of China's economy.

Fourth, monetary policy faces a dilemma. At present, despite the large scale of new loans, some funds have not entered the real economy, but entered the stock market and housing market, which may lead to new asset bubbles, especially in the case of rising inflation expectations. If the financial management department tightens credit, it may affect some enterprises that need credit funds, which may further inhibit economic recovery. If credit continues to relax, it may lead to excess liquidity and asset bubbles. In addition, after some local governments try their best to win the central investment projects, it is difficult to keep up with the matching funds, and some local projects are even more difficult to break even. These projects can only rely on loans, especially after the project is launched, it faces the problem of lack of follow-up funds. If the central bank tightens monetary policy, some projects may not be promoted, resulting in unrecoverable investment and new bad debts; If you continue to give loans, you may face pressure such as too many new loans. Therefore, in the next stage, monetary policy is faced with the dilemma of how to grasp the strength.

Considering the total social supply and demand and the base of last year, the economic growth rate will pick up quarter by quarter in 2009, and the annual GDP will increase by about 8% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of primary industry increased by 3.5%, the added value of secondary industry increased by 8.5%, and the added value of tertiary industry increased by 8.6%.

International factors: Some leading indicators are on the rise.

The international financial crisis basically bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year, and the deterioration trend of the world real economy is being curbed. At present, some leading indicators of the world economy are rising.

First, the US economy is expected to bottom out. Macroeconomic data show that the adjusted GDP in the first quarter of the United States decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year; In June, the retail sales of commodities increased by 0.6%, 0. 1 percentage point faster than that in May, the largest increase in five months. In terms of leading indicators, the Lei composite index rose for two consecutive months from April to May, and the purchasing managers' index PMI rose for six consecutive months in the first half of the year; In the real estate market, in June, 582,000 houses were sold, up 3.6% from the previous month, and 563,000 new houses were started, up 8.7% from the previous month, the biggest increase since 65,438+February last year. At present, from the observation of various economic indicators except the unemployment rate (the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic growth), it can basically be judged that the US economy is expected to bottom out after the second quarter and gradually show a trend of stabilization and recovery. In addition, the leading indicators of European and Japanese economies have also rebounded to some extent. On the whole, the positive factors of the world economy are increasing. It is expected that in the second half of the year, driven by the stabilization of the American economy, the economies of Europe and Japan will also end their deep adjustment, and global economic growth will recover slowly.

Second, all developed countries in the world have inventory replenishment needs. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, many enterprises in developed countries such as the United States and the European Union have generally experienced a rapid and substantial inventory reduction process. At present, the inventory of American manufacturing industry is close to the level at the end of 2006, and the speed of commercial inventory reduction has also begun to slow down. In the second half of the year, with the gradual stabilization of the world economy and the expected improvement of market demand, it is expected that most enterprises in developed countries, represented by the United States, will enter the stage of moderately replenishing inventory. Driven by restocking in various countries, international demand will show a staged recovery trend, and the external demand environment facing China's exports will also be improved.

Third, international commodity prices rebounded. Affected by factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, improved demand and inflation expectations, international commodity prices such as oil prices and grain fluctuated and rebounded during the year. Among them, the international crude oil price rose to 70 dollars per barrel in the first half of the year; New york commodity exchange gold futures price once approached $0/000 per ounce; Since March, the price of tin has increased by 40%; Futures prices of agricultural products such as corn, soybeans and wheat all hit eight-month highs. As the world economy is expected to improve as a whole, it is expected that the prices of bulk commodities such as oil, grain and non-ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate upward in the second half of the year, which will drive the price index of China's import and export commodities to rebound.

Fourth, the tendency of trade protectionism has been strengthened. In order to reduce the pressure on the domestic market and protect the sales of domestic products, countries have generally adopted measures such as raising tariffs and abusing remedies, and the tendency of international trade protectionism has increased. Figures show that from June 5438 to April, * * 13 countries (regions) initiated 38 investigations on China products, with the number of cases increasing by 26.7% year-on-year, and the export volume involving China increased by 1.9 times year-on-year. In addition, international trade barriers have been further strengthened.

Fifth, influenza A1N1continues to spread. Since the outbreak of influenza A (H 1N 1) this year, it has been spreading all over the world. On June 1 1, the World Health Organization raised the influenza alert level to the highest alert level of 6, and international logistics, consumption, shipping and other activities were hit. In the future, some transnational business activities will still be cancelled due to the flu, and some trade exchanges will be postponed, which will bring greater impact and pressure to the already depressed world trade.

Domestic factors: the favorable factors supporting the recovery of foreign trade are stronger.

As far as the fundamentals and policies of domestic macroeconomic operation are concerned, although there are a few unfavorable factors in the second half of the year, the favorable factors supporting the recovery of foreign trade are stronger, and it is expected that the sharp decline of China's imports and exports will be controlled.

First, the macroeconomic operation is better than expected. Driven by the government's economic stimulus plan, China's GDP growth rate reached 7.9% in the second quarter, and some regions and industries showed signs of stabilization and recovery. Investment grew rapidly, consumption remained stable, and industrial growth rate gradually picked up. With the continuous improvement of China's macroeconomic situation, the domestic market demand will gradually recover, and the international demand for energy resources products, strategic reserve products and equipment manufacturing products will increase accordingly, which will play a positive role in stopping the decline and stabilizing the import growth rate.

Second, the effect of foreign trade support policies has gradually emerged. In view of the sharp decline in the international economic situation and the obvious decline in China's foreign trade exports, the state has issued a series of regulatory policies to support export development and determined six measures to continue to stabilize external demand in the next step. In the second half of the year, with the implementation of various foreign trade encouragement policies, the financial shortage of foreign trade enterprises will be alleviated, the related export expenses will be reduced, and foreign trade confidence will be boosted. The role of policy will resist the shrinking external demand to a certain extent and promote the increase of overseas market share of export products in the future.

Third, the export leading index rebounded slightly. In May, the PMI index of China's new export orders rose to the expansion range, and stood above the critical value for the first time in 10 months. In June, the value continued to rise, reaching the highest value of 13 months. In May and June, the PMI export index reached 50. 1 and 5 1.4 respectively. At the same time, orders from clothing, furniture, electronics, communication equipment and other industries rebounded significantly. The rebound of export leading index indicates that the export situation will tend to improve in the future.

Fourth, there is pressure for RMB to appreciate. On the one hand, under the background of economic recession in developed countries and deterioration of emerging economies, China's current economic growth is better than other countries, and there is upward pressure on the real effective exchange rate of RMB. On the other hand, the international community generally believes that China will take the lead in recovering from this economic crisis, and the China market has become one of the preferred markets for overseas capital investment, which has put some pressure on RMB appreciation. If the exchange rate rises in the future, it may hinder the recovery of exports.

Trend Outlook: The decline of China's foreign trade import and export will be narrowed in the second half of the year.

Under the influence of stabilizing external demand, effective policies and rising prices, it is expected that the decline of China's foreign trade import and export will narrow in the second half of the year.

1, the decline in exports decreased. This sharp drop in exports is essentially due to the sharp drop in global demand caused by the world economic recession, rather than the loss of comparative advantages such as price and quality of China's export products. In the second half of the year, the US economy is expected to bottom out, driving the world economy out of the trough and the international market demand will recover. Although there are still short-term factors that restrain export growth, the serious shrinking of external demand in China will be improved to some extent. In addition, the effect of China's export support policy is gradually emerging. It is expected that the export decline will gradually slow down in the second half of the year, and the export slowdown of mechanical and electrical products with greater demand elasticity is expected to decrease.

2. Import demand has improved. The effect of the national policy of expanding domestic demand in the early stage has gradually appeared, the macro-economy has bottomed out, the government procurement has intensified, and the stabilization of domestic demand will be conducive to the rebound of imports. In addition, the price index of China's imported goods reached its peak in the third quarter of last year, and then quickly fell back. Due to the influence of price factors in the same period last year, it is expected that the price index of China's imported goods will rise steadily in the second half of the year, and the downward trend of nominal import growth rate affected by price factors will be alleviated, and the nominal growth rate will gradually approach the actual growth rate.

To sum up, the decline of China's foreign trade exports will slow down in the second half of the year, and it is estimated that the annual decline will be about17.5%; The decline in imports was significantly lower than that in the first half of the year, and the annual decline was16%; The size of the trade surplus remained at around $220 billion.

Six countermeasures and suggestions

(1) Actively implement the foreign trade policies that have been promulgated.

Under the current economic situation, the focus of foreign trade policy can be on "giving full play to, implementing and implementing the previous preferential policies" to help export enterprises tide over the difficulties and maintain the stable operation of foreign trade.

(2) Promoting the institutionalization of export tax rebates.

China's export tax rebate policy has been adjusted many times, and most products are close to full tax rebate except "two high-tech and one capital" products. It is suggested that the next step is to subdivide the tax number of export products, and implement full tax refund for all goods except "two high-tech and one capital" products according to the principle of structural optimization. Second, learn from the beneficial institutional arrangements of developed countries in export tax rebate, transform the export tax rebate policy into a fixed system through legal means, and gradually establish and improve the export tax rebate system with China characteristics. Finally, through the arrangement of the export tax rebate system, the export cost of enterprises can be reduced for a long time, which can help enterprises improve their efficiency and enhance the competitiveness of China products in the international market.

(3) Continue to expand the scale of export credit.

First, we will continue to increase the policy of providing RMB export buyer's credit to importing enterprises in developing countries with repayment ability and good reputation. The second is to expand the credit coverage of domestic export sellers, increase the proportion of export credit in general trade, and focus on supporting large-scale electromechanical complete equipment export projects and equipment manufacturing products export projects promoted by the state.

(D) enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate mechanism

First, to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, we can consider adjusting the weight of major currencies in the current currency basket according to domestic and international economic, financial and exchange rate fluctuations, increasing the proportion of world currencies such as euro and Japanese yen, gradually changing the current situation that the actual trend of RMB is pegged to the US dollar, and alleviating the pressure of RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation. Second, in order to further enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate, it is suggested to expand the floating range of the middle price on the existing basis and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a more reasonable and balanced level. Third, strengthen intra-regional trade and monetary cooperation and expand the scale and scope of application of bilateral currency swap.

(5) Resolutely implement the strategy of foreign trade diversification.

First, strengthen regional trade cooperation and accelerate the construction of a bilateral free trade agreement system. In the future, we can consider further strengthening unilateral and multilateral trade cooperation with neighboring countries and regions such as Russia, India and ASEAN. Establish a mechanism for regional trade interaction and stability, establish an intra-regional financial cooperation system, promote the construction of East Asia's currency-foreign reserves-financial system, and enhance the cohesion of the 10+3 framework. The second is to encourage enterprises to expand into emerging markets such as South America and Africa. Take advantage of the opportunity of foreign-funded enterprises to shrink their business due to the financial crisis, and seize market segments as soon as possible in combination with the competitive advantages of China enterprises. The third is to promote mutually beneficial bilateral trade activities with countries rich in resources and energy reserves.

(6) Actively respond to international trade protectionism.

First, China's attitude towards trade protectionism is firm and clear, and it opposes any country obstructing the process of trade liberalization in any form. At the same time, it will deter and warn countries that implement trade protection, so that they will have scruples in the process of implementing relevant trade protection behaviors. Second, consider taking retaliatory measures against other countries that directly or in disguised form prohibit, restrict and impose tariffs without authorization, which affects China's normal export trade, and other countries that import goods into China through dumping, such as imposing retaliatory tariffs, restricting the import of related products in this country, and controlling import quotas. Third, it advocates that relevant international institutions reform the world trade system, with special emphasis on strengthening the supervision of the WTO on trade protection policies of developed countries. At the same time, we should make full use of WTO rules, take the principle of "strengthening international exchanges and resisting trade barriers" and use anti-dumping and countervailing policy tools to crack down on trade protection in some countries.