The first view holds that the main factors affecting China's economic security include: (1) financial risk. First of all, it comes from the financial security problems of state-owned commercial banks, state-owned enterprises and stock markets. (2) Debt risk. In recent years, the financial debt burden caused by China's active fiscal policy deserves attention. (3) Employment and social security pressure. It is mainly the growth of working-age population, the reemployment of laid-off workers from state-owned enterprises, the transfer of rural surplus labor force and the diversion of institutional reform personnel in state-owned enterprises and institutions. (4) External influences. Economic globalization and joining WTO make us face severe challenges. (5) Shortage of important strategic materials.
The second view holds that the main challenge that China's economic security still faces is: (1) industrial security. The deepening of opening to the outside world has had an impact on some industrial sectors in China. (2) Financial guarantee. The trend of financial liberalization and internationalization threatens China's economic security. (3) Human resource protection. The outflow of senior professional and technical personnel to foreign-funded enterprises and developed countries is serious. (4) Network security.
The third view holds that the economic security faced by China mainly includes: (1) the economic security problems faced by the development of open economy; (2) The economic security problems faced by the development of Internet economy; (3) The economic security problems faced by China after its entry into the World Trade Organization; (4) the economic security problems faced by operating in accordance with international practices.
The fourth view holds that China's entry into WTO poses a severe challenge to China's national economic security: (1) economic integration challenges the independence of national economic sovereignty; (2) The economic invasion of developed countries challenges national resources and market security; (3) Challenge the rapid growth of the national economy; (4) Brain drain and potential financial risks challenge the stability of the national financial system; (5) Green trade barriers in developed countries challenge the national environmental protection stage.
The fifth view holds that the main problems facing China's economic security are: (1) financial security. After joining WTO, the frequency of capital and foreign exchange flows is accelerated, and the probability of financial risks is increased. (2) Energy security. Energy is not only the foundation of economic development, but also a strategic resource. (3) Food security. After joining WTO, the competitiveness of agricultural products will face a severe test. At the same time, the international grain market and grain prices are easily controlled by a few developed countries.
The sixth view holds that China's entry into WTO has a great impact on China's economic security: (1) the service industry is most directly affected, and the service industry has the greatest impact on financial security; (2) Industrial safety. The impact of changes in the import and export trade system on existing industries; China's current unbalanced industrial structure contradiction will be more prominent; Economic globalization makes Chinese agriculture face the risk of dependent development and marginalization in the world system.
(3) Views on how to maintain national economic security under open conditions.
The first view holds that the following effective countermeasures should be taken: (1) establish the basic principles for formulating national economic security strategy: national interests, comprehensive security, relative balance and cooperation and coordination; (2) Formulating and implementing an effective national economic security strategy; (3) Establish national economic security evaluation index system and monitoring system; (4) improve the quality of the national economy and enhance the economic safety factor; (5) handle the relationship between opening to the outside world and maintaining national economic security.
The second view holds that the idea and train of thought of national economic security are: (1) reconstructing the idea of national economic security; (2) Establish a security strategy of "integration of domestic and foreign trade"; (3) continue to promote the strategy of "great economy and trade" and "great balance"; (4) From the overall situation of the national economy, build a national economic security mechanism; (5) Constructing national economic security mechanism from the perspective of regional economic alliance.
The third view holds that the way to maintain China's economic security is (1) to grasp such a huge national economic security system from a strategic perspective; (2) Prevention is the key to maintaining national economic security; (3) To maintain national economic security, we must use the concept of system and grasp the key personnel as a whole.
The fourth view is: (1) Facing the problems and disadvantages brought by economic globalization, we should seriously study and take corresponding countermeasures; (2) Attach importance to participating in international economic cooperation and formulate rules of international economic games.
The fifth view holds that the following measures should be taken to meet the challenges faced by China's national economic security after China's entry into WTO; (1) Establish an early warning index system for China's national economic security; (2) Transforming the government's economic adjustment function; (3) Establish measures and systems to prevent and avoid financial risks; (4) Improve the economic benefits and international competitiveness of industrial scale; (5) Avoiding the risk of WTO entry.
With China's entry into WTO and the advancement of economic globalization, China's dependence on the international market is getting higher and higher, but the protection of its own economic security needs to be strengthened, and the importance and urgency of national economic security issues are becoming increasingly prominent.
In the discussion of this issue in the theoretical circle, there are many arguments and viewpoints because of the different understanding of the concept and the different angles of analyzing the problem. However, the concept of national economic security has been roughly outlined: the domestic and international environment faced by the survival and development of the national economy and the overall security of a country's economy; The problems existing in national economic security are: industrial security, financial security, information security, strategic material security and economic growth security; The countermeasures are: concept, prevention, response and national strength. This is also the harvest and significance of discussing this issue.
Generally speaking, compared with foreign related research, China's research on national economic security is still in the basic research stage. Most of the concerns in theoretical circles are related to financial security. Although the research on national economic information security is involved, it is not deep enough, and the research on raising the national industrial development to the height of national economic security is rare, especially the results of systematic research on the contents or factors that endanger China's national economic security at present are even less. This is also an urgent problem to be discussed in future research.
Financial security under the background of China's entry into WTO
First, the inevitability of financial security problems
There are many forms of financial security problems, some of which are local risks and some are global risks. Generally speaking, financial risks are manifested as currency crisis, banking crisis, debt crisis, economic crisis and even social crisis. The occurrence of financial security problems is often caused by domestic economic foundation and policy mistakes, and financial opening is only a catalyst for the financial crisis and accelerates its formation. With the entry of foreign financial institutions, the expansion of capital flow scale and the acceleration of its flow speed, the financial market will have a "leader" effect. When the price of financial assets is more influenced by expected factors, the fierce competition between domestic and foreign financial institutions will lead to the pressure of "overbought" and "oversold" in the financial market. For example, in the international foreign exchange market, influenced by speculative forces and international capital flows, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar often fluctuates greatly due to the influence of international capital flows. During the period of 1995- 1997, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fluctuated by more than 50%. If this large-scale currency exchange rate change occurs in an open country with a small economic scale, it is easy to have a currency crisis or a financial crisis. During the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the currencies of some countries were hit by international hot money, and the depreciation rate was as high as 70% in just a few months, which eventually led to the financial crisis and economic recession. China has just joined the WTO, which will increase the fragility of the financial system and make it more prone to financial security problems.
Second, the main hidden dangers affecting China's financial security
The main problems facing China's financial security are: serious hidden risks, weak microeconomic foundation, weak internal control of financial institutions, poor quality of financial assets and poor solvency of financial institutions. Generally speaking, the causes of financial security problems may come from the real economy, enterprises evading debts, lack of internal control, market failure, ineffective supervision, lax rule of law, and the impact of international hot money, which are specifically manifested in the following aspects:
First, from the perspective of the real economy, the overall efficiency of enterprises in China is poor. In the process of state-owned enterprise system reform, in order to establish a mechanism for enterprises to withdraw from the market and improve operating efficiency, the bankruptcy and closure of large and medium-sized state-owned loss-making enterprises have been intensified. Since 1998, 17 18 corporate merger and bankruptcy projects have been approved nationwide. Correspondingly, the increasing number of laid-off workers and the greater pressure of re-employment have become an important difficulty for enterprises to further reform. However, the increase in business losses will eventually increase the bad debts of banks and become the main source of potential risks in the financial industry.
Second, from the social environment of financial operation, the social credit foundation is weak. For a long time, influenced by the planned economic system, many enterprises' bad credit has become the main difficulty for the financial system to guard against risks. Therefore, banks are reluctant to increase loans and the work of resolving non-performing loans is very slow. Some financial institutions even have payment crisis and credit crisis. The social credit foundation is poor, which is manifested in: enterprises evade bank debts seriously, some enterprises refuse to repay the principal and interest, and even use mergers or bankruptcies to "suspend" the debts owed to banks. This not only increases the potential risks of the financial system, but also hinders the implementation of measures to resolve financial risks.
Third, from the perspective of internal management of financial institutions, the lack of internal control system has become a hidden danger affecting financial security. Mainly manifested in: the risk prevention mechanism of commercial banks is not perfect, and the loan quality cannot be dynamically tracked and checked; In the implementation of "three checks (pre-loan investigation, in-loan review and post-loan inspection)", the post-loan inspection situation is poor, the tendency of "paying more attention to loans than management" is more prominent, the internal risk control of commercial banks is relatively weak, and the capital adequacy ratio of most banks is far below the international standard of 8%, and the hidden dangers of bank crisis are more serious.
Fourth, from the perspective of financial market development, the money market and the capital market are "openly blocked and secretly connected" and lack effective risk prevention measures. Because the main financing channel of enterprises is bank loans, enterprises have insufficient self-owned capital and high debt ratio, once in trouble, it is easy to make the financial system fall into crisis.
Fifth, from the perspective of financial supervision, there is a trend that external supervision replaces internal supervision, and the efficiency of financial supervision is poor. For a long time, the planned economy of China's financial supervision is prominent, the securities market is not standardized, and the management mode of "examination and approval system" is mainly adopted, which implies certain market risks; There is disorderly competition in the insurance market and serious violations. Therefore, there is still a lot of work to be done to improve the securities market and insurance market. In addition, the mechanism of self-discipline and self-management of financial institutions has not been established, and the financial regulatory authorities lack dynamic supervision of financial risks and an effective risk early warning system. In particular, the timeliness and transparency of off-site supervision information are poor, and potential financial risks cannot be monitored in time and effectively prevented.
Sixth, from the perspective of managing money according to law, it is common to violate financial rules and regulations. In the process of business management, some financial institutions' staff operate beyond their authority, violate the financial accounting system, operate outside the account, and have a lax review. In addition, in the financial business, the fraudulent means of corruption, bribery and internal and external collusion are high-tech and professional, and these factors are likely to become major hidden dangers of local financial security issues.
Finally, from the external factors, international hot money can enter the domestic financial market more and more freely. When a large amount of foreign capital flows in, the price of domestic financial assets will rise sharply and even bubble; Once a large number of foreign capitals flee, the prices of related financial assets will drop sharply, which may lead to potential financial risks and even pose a potential threat to financial security. Under the condition of financial openness, with the promotion of domestic financial market innovation and the wide use of new financial instruments (securities investment, futures and options trading), the chances of international hot money speculation to obtain spreads increase, and the "big advance" of hot money may bring potential threats to China's financial security.
Three. Challenges and Countermeasures for China after China's Entry into WTO
China's financial industry is the weak link of reform. If China's financial market is fully opened, it will inevitably face the following financial shocks:
First, although many branches in the state-owned commercial bank system have not yet entered the enterprise operation, they can't compete with the powerful big banks in developed countries in terms of service quality, work efficiency, operating ability and technical conditions. Once a large number of foreign banks enter and liberalize the RMB and foreign currency savings business, the four major state-owned commercial banks will face a serious problem of the loss of depositors.
Therefore, focusing on wholly state-owned commercial banks, we strive to meet the standards of advanced countries in terms of property rights structure, technological innovation, asset quality, restraint and incentive mechanism, and service efficiency. The four wholly state-owned commercial banks occupy an overwhelming proportion in the allocation of monetary resources in the whole society. Only when the appearance of these four banks changes fundamentally can China's banking system adapt to the banking competition under the open conditions.
Second, the premise of capital market opening is the free convertibility of RMB under capital account. We should adjust our thinking as soon as possible, cultivate China's capital market according to the laws of market economy, and promote the adjustment of China's real economic structure and financial structure with effective capital market.
Third, at present, the insurance market has been opened, and it has been completely opened according to the requirements of GATS. The urgent problem facing China is how to use reinsurance and reinsurance institutions to solve the problem of safe operation of the economic and financial system, and how to make clear the market commitment and government commitment of China's social security system before introducing foreign insurance investment on a large scale. It has become an inevitable trend to move from separate management to mixed management and unified supervision.
Fourthly, regulated interest rate and managed floating exchange rate are the two pillars of China's current financial system, and the pace of interest rate marketization should be accelerated.
Fifth, transparency and liberalization are two rules of the game that every country applying to join the WTO must follow, and these two rules are also the premise and essence of financial openness. It is particularly important to improve the transparency of financial operation and rebuild the social credit foundation.
Fourth, ways to ensure financial security.
In recent years, China has made great progress in financial reform. However, China's financial problems are still very serious. For example, according to the data of the People's Bank of China, the non-performing loan ratio in China was close to 30% the year before last. Financial authorities should always pay attention to financial hidden dangers and guard against financial risks. The most important thing is to strengthen financial supervision. Specific measures to strengthen financial supervision:
First of all, strengthening the independence of the central bank is not only the content of strengthening supervision, but also one of the prerequisites for strengthening supervision.
Second, it is required to improve the level of financial supervision in an all-round way from the aspects of perfecting regulatory laws and regulations, strict regulatory system, improving regulatory methods, strengthening regulatory means and improving regulatory system.
Third, enrich the supervision power of banks, securities, insurance and other regulatory agencies, change the concept of supervision, and shift the focus of work from approval to supervision of financial enterprises and financial markets.
Fourth, strengthen social supervision and supervision by public opinion. In the process of financial opening up, we should pay attention to preventing and resolving financial risks, take a sound financial system as the guarantee, manage finance according to law as the means, and steadily promote financial reform as the step to maintain stable financial operation. Specifically, we should do a good job in the following aspects:
First, promote financial opening step by step, and earnestly grasp the degree and order of opening up.
First, we should adhere to the principle of gradual progress in the policy arrangement of financial opening. According to the present situation of the development of domestic financial industry, we should choose the appropriate opening period and degree, make long-term planning and gradually promote it.
Second, opening to the outside world should take into account the weak competitive strength of domestic financial institutions and pay attention to cultivating the competitive strength of domestic financial institutions. We should gradually push domestic financial institutions to the international market and reverse the absolute weakness of domestic financial institutions in international competition.
Third, opening up to the outside world should pay attention to the possible impact of international hot money and formulate effective measures to prevent international hot money from "going in and out". We should choose a moderately open financial policy, especially on the opening of capital projects, and adopt a cautious attitude.
Second, steadily push forward the reform of the financial system and give play to the role of the market mechanism.
On the surface, the financial crisis is manifested as currency crisis, banking crisis, debt crisis, debt repayment crisis and economic crisis. In fact, the financial crisis is often endogenous to the financial system, which is caused by the imperfection of the financial system and the result of the potential risk of the imperfection of the financial system.
A perfect financial system is an important institutional basis to resist the transmission of international hot money and financial crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an efficient financial system with self-restraint mechanism and high transparency. To promote the reform of the financial system, we should gradually establish a market-oriented financial system, with the focus on establishing a modern financial enterprise system with corporate governance structure. At the same time, in terms of macroeconomic policies, we should gradually promote the marketization of interest rates, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, prevent the market imbalance between controlled interest rates and fixed exchange rates, and resolve potential financial risks.
Third, improve the financial monitoring system and establish a security early warning network.
The lack of internal risk control measures in the financial system will lead to the asymmetry of risks and benefits between financial services of different financial entities, and lead to the transformation of risk neutrals or risk evaders into risk preferences, which will aggravate the accumulation of financial risks. Once the market mechanism makes the benefits and risks symmetrical, the accumulated risks will be exposed and eventually lead to the financial crisis. In order to maintain financial security, we should establish a sensitive and efficient financial crisis early warning mechanism and rescue measures, and build a defense line to prevent financial risks and curb excessive speculation. By monitoring major macroeconomic indicators, we should take timely measures to prevent financial risks, prevent the accumulation of financial risks, and maintain the basic stability of foreign economy and finance.
Fourth, firmly establish a sense of crisis and speed up the process of legal construction.
The occurrence of financial crisis is often closely related to the formulation and implementation of financial laws and regulations. In the process of market-oriented reform, China lacks an effective supervision system, especially in data statistics, information disclosure and external supervision, and there may be gaps in laws and regulations. In order to guard against financial risks, it is necessary to adjust relevant legal systems in time and improve financial legal arrangements. To guard against financial risks and ensure financial security, we should solve institutional risks through legislation and emphasize financial supervision according to law to meet the needs of continuous development and change of financial innovation. We should do a good job in three aspects: first, adapt to the requirements of financial opening to the outside world, sort out, modify and improve relevant legal systems, and establish a financial legal system that meets the trend of international legal system construction and the needs of China's financial industry development; The second is to govern finance according to law, strengthen financial law enforcement, and ensure the effective implementation of relevant financial laws and regulations from the aspects of market access, professional qualifications, information disclosure and risk control. Third, straighten out the relationship between government, enterprises and financial institutions, strengthen market rules and related management systems, protect the interests of financial institutions according to law, and make financial governance according to law enter a virtuous circle.
Fifth, strengthen international coordination and cooperation and establish a global financial security network.
The financial security problem is global, and the financial security problem of one country often has a conduction effect on other countries. The financial crisis in Southeast Asia shows that the current international financial system and international cooperation mechanism cannot meet the needs of economic globalization. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a new international financial system, guard against financial risks, safeguard financial security and promote the healthy development of the global economy.
Realizing "paying equal attention to safety and efficiency" is the consistent goal of China's financial reform and opening up. The experience and lessons of the international financial crisis in recent years make it necessary for us to improve efficiency through reform and opening up, at the same time, always take into account financial security issues and put "safety" before "efficiency". Especially in the transitional period when China has just joined WTO, it is extremely urgent to strengthen financial security.