After decades of development in processing speed, storage capacity, networking and software refinement, computers have penetrated into the fields of science, commerce and culture in an unimaginable way, and intelligent engineering will make them change from quantitative to qualitative. Computing functions are increasingly becoming simulation and execution. In the field of science, computing can simulate climate change and decode human genes; In the commercial field, low-cost computing, Internet and digital communication are changing the global economy. In the cultural field, computing products such as iPod, YouTube and computer animation are everywhere. In September 2006, the Computer Science and Communication Committee of the United States held a seminar in Washington called "20 16", with the theme of how computers will develop in the future. Representatives of the conference came from academia and industry. Topics include: the impact of social networks, digital images, online media and computers on work and employment. The discussion mainly focuses on two aspects: the influence of calculation will penetrate into natural science in depth and enter social science in breadth; Policy issues are prominent, and the function of computing technology will be more powerful and omnipotent. The profound influence of computers on scientific research is mainly high-speed supercomputers. Although the functions of multiple computers can be connected by software through grid group computing to achieve high-speed operation comparable to that of supercomputers, it is still necessary to rely on a single supercomputer to solve the most complicated dynamic problems, especially those involving national security. Computing, which can widely influence the public, has changed from a desktop to a handheld multifunctional product integrating computing, entertainment and communication. First, the development target speed of supercomputers is as important for supercomputers in scientific computing as it is for fighters on the battlefield. The High Productivity Computing System (HPCS) plan formulated by the Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the US Department of Defense requires supercomputers with 1000 trillion floating-point operations per second to enter the market 20 10 years ago and equip weapons laboratories and scientific research centers in the United States. DARPA regards this supercomputer as a key technology for developing advanced aircraft, weapons, planning and execution of military operations, maintenance of US nuclear reserves, research on security systems, image processing and password decoding. Harold, director of DARPA in charge of the project, said that this is "a key technology to meet the needs of national security and economic competitiveness." In June 2006, 165438+ 10, Cray introduced a new XT4 supercomputer, which is a system consisting of 30,000 opteton processors. Cray claims that the stable running speed of its new system during the test period is 65,438+00 trillion floating-point operations per second, which can reach 54 trillion operations per second at present and is expected to reach 250 trillion operations per second by the end of 2005. XT4' s new architecture can be easily upgraded to the highest speed of 1000 trillion floating-point operations per second. The key technology of XT4 is Cray's SeaStar2 connection chip. Each processor in the system has such a connection chip, instead of using a communication interface for all processors like other supercomputers. This technology makes a large number of parallel processing systems not slow down because of data transmission between them. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Energy Science Computing Center and Finnish IT Science Center all ordered XT4. The company's vice president in charge of government planning said that this type of computer is especially suitable for aerodynamic problems and other aerospace designs. For example, researchers from the US Air Force have been using the XT3 of the previous generation to simulate the design and evaluation of new antennas. In June, 2006, DARPA signed a contract with Cray Company worth $250 million to develop its latest hybrid architecture supercomputer. This is one of the projects in the third phase of the high productivity computing system plan, which Cray Company calls an adaptive supercomputer. So far, supercomputers have only used one processor. The hybrid structure of Cray's supercomputer is to integrate two different types of processors, scalar and vector, and add two other processors to make processors and tasks most suitable for caching, so as to achieve the highest efficiency and maximum utilization. IBM also signed a supercomputer contract worth $244 million for the third phase of the HPCS project. The goal is to develop real-time applications at 1000 trillion times per second; In the 28th list of the world's top 500 supercomputers published in June, 2006, 165438+ 10, IBM's Gene/L system topped the list. The system was developed by the company for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy, with an operation speed of 280.6 trillion times per second, which is about 20/kloc required by DARPA. Cray's Red Storm supercomputer running in Sandia National Laboratory is 10 1.4 trillion times per second, second only to IBM's Gene/L. Second, desktop computers have gradually become network multimedia entertainment tools, and desktop computers have finally entered the field of mobile communication. This trend can be seen from the surge of data in optical fiber communication. More and more computer users receive MySpaee and ESPN websites through mobile phones to process files and text messages. Pana Grossi, a senior mobile operating system developer and vice president of Symbian, said: "We have seen the gradual evolution of screens, from movies, TV and computer screens to the fourth-generation smartphone screens today." The latest screen shows many functions of desktop computers, and the next generation screen will include various forms of integration, including audio-visual communication, e-mail, SMS and other functions. To this end, Apple Computer Company has changed its name to Apple, and the upcoming iPhone represents the company's latest strategy, that is, to enter the new field of Internet data processing handheld devices. This handheld device close to a desktop computer can easily handle music, images, entertainment, production tasks and communicate through optical fiber and other wireless networks. Apple's move seems to have triggered a nuclear war, and both Nokia and Motorola will respond. However, in this field, Apple is only a latecomer, and its rivals are: Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Microsoft and other business giants, all of which have entered the field of entertainment electronics. There are also powerful Internet companies such as Google that are about to enter this field. They can't stand the temptation of the benefit transfer of desktop computer users. Pseudo-competition between mobile phones and desktop computers has also produced new composite devices. Both Nokia and Sony have recently introduced new products with innovative physical design and various communication functions. These products are smaller and easier to read than handheld devices. Software development of wireless data communication is also an important commercial field. Apple's advantage is that it can develop both hardware and software in the wireless data communication market. This is its new iPhone, which is novel and eye-catching. Third, the impact of computing on science and social economy Why does computing have a major impact on science, social networks and people's cultural life? In terms of the influence of computers on science, Karp, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, put forward the concept of algorithmic nature of scientific theory after long-term exploration. The core concept of mathematics and computer science is algorithm. Algorithm, in short, is to solve the calculation step by step. It is good at describing dynamic processes, while scientific formulas or equations are suitable for static phenomena. Scientific research is increasingly exploring dynamic processes, and computer science is a systematic study of algorithms. Computer application is particularly prominent in the fastest growing biological field at present. Karp's research in recent years has gone beyond the field of computer science and entered the field of microbiology. He believes that biology has been regarded as information science now. Scientists try to use algorithms to describe biological processes, such as the generation of protein, which is "naturally an algorithm." In terms of social networks, social scientists have been analyzing them for decades before the emergence of technical networks. With the emergence of the Internet, social networks and technical networks are inevitably linked, and social networks may develop to an unprecedented scale. The new social technology network includes e-mail, shopping recommendations from commercial websites (such as Amazon), short messages or small posts from communication websites (such as MySpace and Facebook), as well as news, opinions, fashion, urban myths, online goods and services, etc. At present, people are exploring whether algorithms can be used to analyze why some online communities are booming while others are shrinking or disappearing. Using computing technology to study social networks is a great wealth for sociologists, economists, anthropologists, psychologists and educators, and it is also useful for marketers and politicians. Professor Kleinberg of Cornell University said: "This is the most important way to apply calculation and algorithm to social science and practice, and it is still in its infancy." Future trends in computer images and storage may be used by individuals. The main events in a person's life can be recorded by assembling digital devices with microwave transmission, miniature phones and cameras. This is of great significance to communication, media and personal life. Raschid, a computer scientist and director of the Microsoft research laboratory, said that he would like to see how his son took the first step and listen to the conversation with his father who died a few years ago. "I want to see the past, which is possible in the future." However, the wide application of any technology has both positive and negative effects. Having new tools to track the online behavior of groups and individuals can also lead to serious privacy problems. In the summer of 2006, AOL inadvertently leaked the online search logs of 650,000 users, which obviously exposed this problem. It may become a tool to monitor society. Rashid said: "We have this ability, but it is society, not scientists, that decides how to use it."