First, the current situation and characteristics of world energy consumption
1. Affected by economic development and population growth, the world's primary energy consumption is increasing.
With the continuous expansion of the world economy, the world energy consumption continues to grow. 1990 The world GDP was 26.5 trillion US dollars (calculated at constant prices of 1995), and reached 34.3 trillion US dollars in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. According to BP energy statistics in 2004, the world's primary energy consumption was only 5.73 billion tons of oil equivalent in 1973, and reached 9.74 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2003. In the past 30 years, the average annual growth rate of world energy consumption is about 1.8%.
2. The world energy consumption presents different growth patterns, and the growth rate of developed countries is obviously lower than that of developing countries.
In the past 30 years, the total energy consumption of six regions, including North America, Central and South America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific, has increased, but the growth rate of North America and Europe, which are relatively developed in economy, science and technology and society, is very slow, and the proportion of their consumption in the world's total consumption has also decreased year by year, from 35. 1% in North America to 28.0% in 2003. The proportion of energy consumption of OECD countries in the world decreased from 68.0% in 1973 to 55.4% in 2003. The main reasons are: first, the economic development of developed countries has entered the post-industrial stage, and the economy has developed into an industrial structure with low energy consumption and high output, and the manufacturing industry with high energy consumption has gradually turned to developing countries; Second, developed countries attach great importance to energy conservation and improve energy efficiency.
3. The world energy consumption structure tends to be high-quality, but the regional differences are still great.
Since the industrial revolution in 1970s in 19, the consumption of fossil fuels has increased dramatically. At first it was mainly coal. After entering the 20th century, especially since the Second World War, the production and consumption of oil and natural gas have continued to rise. In 1960s, oil surpassed coal for the first time and became the dominant position of primary energy. Although the world experienced two oil crises in 1970s, the world oil consumption did not show any downward trend. Since then, the proportion of oil and coal has decreased slowly, while the proportion of natural gas has increased. At the same time, other forms of new energy, such as nuclear energy, wind energy, hydropower and geothermal energy, have been gradually developed and utilized, forming an energy structure pattern with fossil fuels as the mainstay and renewable energy and new energy coexisting. By the end of 2003, fossil energy is still the main energy source in the world, accounting for about 87.7% of the world's primary energy supply, of which oil accounts for 37.3%, coal accounts for 26.5% and natural gas accounts for 23.9%. Although non-fossil energy and renewable energy have increased rapidly, they still maintain a low proportion, about 12.3%.
Because the Middle East is the richest in oil and gas resources and the exploitation cost is extremely low, about 97% of the energy consumption in the Middle East is oil and natural gas, which is significantly higher than the world average and ranks first in the world. In the Asia-Pacific region, China, Indian and other countries are rich in coal resources, and coal accounts for a high proportion in the energy consumption structure. Among them, the proportion of coal in China's energy structure is as high as 68%, so the proportion of oil and natural gas in the energy structure in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively low (about 47%), which is obviously lower than the world average. Except for the Asia-Pacific region, the proportion of oil and natural gas in other regions is higher than 60%.
The world is still rich in energy resources, but the pressure of energy trade and transportation is increasing.
According to BP World Energy Statistics 2004, by the end of 2003, the proven recoverable reserves of remaining oil in the world were 654.38+056.58 billion tons, including 63.3% in the Middle East, 5.5% in North America, 8.9% in Central and South America, 9.2% in Europe, 8.9% in Africa and 4.2% in Asia-Pacific. In 2003, the world oil output was 3.697 billion tons, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. Comparing the oil production and consumption in different regions, we can find that the Middle East needs to export about 880 million tons, and the oil production in Africa and Central and South America is also greater than the consumption, while the production and consumption gaps in Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe are 670 million tons, 420 million tons and 65.438+0.2 billion tons respectively.
The distribution of coal resources is also greatly unbalanced. By the end of 2003, the remaining recoverable reserves of coal in the world were 984.45 billion tons, and the reserve-production ratio was as high as 192 (year). Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific region are the main distribution areas of coal in the world, accounting for about 92% of the world total. In the same period, the remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas 175.78 trillion cubic meters, and the reserve-production ratio reached 67. The Middle East and Europe are the regions with the richest natural gas resources in the world, accounting for 75.5% of the world total, while the share of other regions is only 5%~7% respectively. With the relative depletion of energy resources in some parts of the world, the volume of energy trade between regions and countries in the world will further increase, and the demand for energy transportation will also increase accordingly. Energy storage and transportation facilities and energy supply security will be paid more and more attention.
Second, the world energy supply and consumption trends
According to the latest forecast of us energy information administration (EIA), with the development of world economy and society, the world energy demand will continue to increase in the future. It is predicted that the world energy demand will reach 10599 million tons of oil equivalent in 2065, 4.38+02889 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020 and136.5 million tons of oil equivalent in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2%. The proportion of energy consumption in Europe and North America will continue to decline, while Asia, the Middle East, Central and South America and other regions will maintain the growth trend. With the increasing concentration of energy reserves in the world, the competition for energy resources will become increasingly fierce and the way of competition will become more complicated. The possibility of conflict or war caused by energy competition still exists.
With the increase of energy consumption in the world, the emissions of environmental pollutants such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and dust particles are increasing year by year, and the impact of fossil energy on the environment and global climate will become increasingly serious. According to EIA statistics, the global carbon dioxide emission in 1990 is about 210.56 billion tons, and it will reach 23.90 billion tons in 200010. It is estimated that it will be 27.72 billion tons in 20 10, and 3710.20 billion tons in 2025.
Facing the above challenges, the future world energy supply and consumption will be diversified, clean, efficient, global and market-oriented.
1. diversification
The world's energy structure has experienced an era in which wood is dominant, coal is dominant and oil is dominant, and now it is changing to natural gas. At the same time, hydropower, nuclear energy, wind energy and solar energy are also being more widely used. Sustainable development, environmental protection, energy supply cost and structural changes of available energy determine the pattern of global energy diversification. Natural gas consumption will increase steadily, and in some areas, gas-fired power stations will replace coal-fired power stations. In the future, while developing conventional energy, we will pay attention to new energy and renewable energy. In the EU's 20 10 renewable energy development plan, wind power should reach 40 million kilowatts, and hydropower should reach1050,000 kilowatts. At the beginning of 2003, the white paper on energy published by the British government defined a new energy strategy. By 20 10, the proportion of renewable energy generation in Britain will increase from the current 3% to 10%, and reach 20% by 2020.
clear
With the progress of new energy technology and the increasingly strict environmental protection standards in the world, the world energy will further develop in the direction of cleanliness in the future. Not only should the energy production process be clean, but the energy industry should continuously produce more and better clean energy, and the proportion of clean energy in the total energy consumption will gradually increase. In the world energy consumption structure, the proportion of coal will drop from the current 26.47% to 2 1.72% in 2025, while the proportion of natural gas will rise from the current 23.94% to 28.40% in 2025, and the proportion of oil will remain at the level of 37.60%~37.90%. At the same time, the utilization of coal and traditional energy sources, such as firewood, straw and manure, which were considered as "dirty" energy sources in the past, will develop in a clean direction, and clean coal technologies (such as coal liquefaction technology, coal gasification technology, coal desulfurization and dust removal technology), biogas technology and biodiesel technology will make breakthroughs and be widely used. Some countries, such as France, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands, closed all domestic coal mines and developed nuclear power. They believe that nuclear power is an efficient and clean energy source, which can solve the problem of greenhouse gas emission.
high-efficiency
There are great differences in energy processing and consumption efficiency among countries in the world, and there is great potential to improve energy utilization efficiency. With the progress of new energy technology in the world, the efficiency of energy utilization in the world will increase day by day, and the energy intensity will gradually decrease. For example, at the constant price of US$ 65,438+0,997, the world energy intensity was US$ 65,438+0 tons of oil equivalent/1 0,000 in 65,438+0 years, and it had dropped to 0.365,438+0,265 in 2006,5438+0 years.
However, the energy intensity varies greatly in different parts of the world. For example, in 200 1 year, the energy intensity of developed countries is only 0.2 109 ton oil equivalent/thousand dollars, and in 200 1~2025, the energy intensity of developing countries is expected to be 2.3~3.2 times that of developed countries, which shows that the global energy saving potential is huge.
4. Globalization
Due to the uneven distribution of energy resources and demand in the world, it is increasingly difficult for countries and regions in the world to rely on their own resources to meet domestic demand, and it is increasingly necessary to rely on the supply of resources from other countries or regions in the world. The world trade volume will be bigger and bigger, and the trade volume will increase gradually. Taking oil trade as an example, the world oil trade volume increased from10.22 billion tons in 1985 to 210.20 billion tons in 2000 and 210.80 billion tons in 2002, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.46%, which exceeded the average annual growth rate of world oil consumption/kloc-. In the foreseeable future, the world's net oil imports will gradually increase, with an average annual growth rate of 2.96%. It is estimated that it will reach 29.3 million barrels per day in 20 10, 40.8 million barrels per day in 2020 and 48.5 million barrels per day in 2025. The globalization process of world energy supply and consumption will be accelerated, and the world's major energy producers and consumers will actively participate in the globalization process of energy supply and demand market.
5. Marketization
Because marketization is the best means to realize the optimal allocation and utilization of international energy resources, with the development of the world economy, especially the acceleration of the marketization reform process in various countries around the world, the marketization degree of world energy utilization is getting higher and higher, and the direct intervention of governments around the world in energy utilization will be less and less, while the role of governments in serving the energy market will increase accordingly, especially in improving energy laws and regulations in various countries and regions and providing a good energy market environment. At present, Russia, Kazakhstan, Libya and other countries rich in energy resources are constantly improving their energy investment policies and administrative measures. The marketization and standardization of energy production in these countries will be improved, which is conducive to foreign investors' investment.
Three. Enlightenment and suggestions
1. Rely on scientific and technological progress and policy guidance to improve energy efficiency and take the road of efficient and clean energy utilization.
China has its own national conditions. The characteristics of China's energy resources reserve structure and China's economic structure determine that the energy structure dominated by coal in China is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, and the difference between China's energy consumption structure and the world's energy consumption structure will continue to exist, which requires China's energy policy, including energy infrastructure construction, energy exploration and production, energy utilization, environmental pollution control and overseas energy utilization, to be different from other countries. In view of China's large population, limited energy resources, especially high-quality energy resources, and being in the process of industrialization, we should pay special attention to relying on scientific and technological progress and policy guidance to improve energy efficiency, seek clean utilization of energy, and actively advocate the sustainable development of energy, environment and economy.
2. Actively learn from international advanced experience to establish and improve China's energy security system.
In order to ensure energy security, on the one hand, China should learn from international advanced experience, improve energy laws and regulations, establish an energy market information statistics system, establish an early warning mechanism, an energy reserve mechanism and an energy crisis emergency mechanism, actively advocate the diversification of energy supply in sources, varieties, trade and transportation, and improve the degree of marketization; On the other hand, we should strengthen dialogue with major energy producers and consumers, expand the energy supply network, and realize the globalization of energy production, transportation, procurement, trade and utilization. Produced by me-czh.