1. The deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis has made the recovery of the world economy difficult.
The subprime mortgage crisis continues to develop in depth and is seriously undermining the operating order of the international financial system. How far and when this financial crisis will develop is full of uncertainty. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the real economy continues to spread. Due to the widespread crisis of credit and confidence in the financial sector of developed countries, the scale of direct financing by enterprises from the capital market has shrunk, and commercial banks have generally been reluctant to lend, which has made the real economic activities of industry and commerce lose financial support. The economic growth prospects of the United States, the European Union and Japan are bleak, and the synchronization of global economic cycles caused by economic globalization will amplify the drag of the subprime mortgage crisis on the global real economy. The sharp adjustment of asset prices in the capital market and real estate market has seriously hit economic confidence and may further delay the recovery of the world economy. The world economic recovery lacks new growth points, and the world economic growth rate and trade growth rate in 2009 will be lower than that in 2008. Since August 2008, the global economic cooling has caused the international oil price to fall by more than 30%, which has also led to other international commodity prices falling to varying degrees. Recently, inflation rates in all countries have shown signs of declining. It is predicted that with the further cooling of the world economy in 2009, the inflationary pressure will be weaker than that in 2008.
2. The international economic downturn will further reduce China's external demand.
In 2008, the US economy fell into a downturn after the subprime mortgage crisis, the US dollar depreciated sharply against the RMB, and the growth rate of China's exports to the US slowed down sharply, with an increase of only 10.6% from June to August. However, due to the relatively stable exchange rate of RMB against Euro, the export to EU increased by 26.3% from June to August. The negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has spread from the United States to Europe, Japan and emerging countries, and the European Union and Japan experienced negative economic growth in the second quarter. At the same time, the rebound of the US dollar exchange rate after August accelerated the appreciation of the RMB against the euro and the Japanese yen. In 2009, China's exports to major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan may slow down in an all-round way, and the scale of foreign trade surplus will be further reduced. The downward impact of net exports on economic growth may be more serious than that in 2008, which makes the contradiction of overcapacity in China more prominent.
Supplement to the report respondent. The cooling of investment in real estate development has led to the slowdown of investment in fixed assets in related industries.
From June to August, 2008, the investment in real estate development increased by 29. 1%, accounting for 2 1.4% of the total investment in fixed assets. However, the real estate transaction volume has shrunk sharply, the signs of house price adjustment are obvious, and the capital chain of real estate developers is tight. The market may further develop from "falling volume and price together" to "falling volume and price together". It is preliminarily predicted that the growth rate of real estate development investment will drop below 10% in 2009, and the increase of real estate investment will drop from 680 billion yuan to 320 billion yuan, which will lead to a significant slowdown in fixed assets investment. As real estate is a pillar industry with a long industrial chain and the leading industry in this round of economic expansion, its periodic adjustment will drag down the prosperity of a series of industries, and the investment in fixed assets in steel, building materials and other related industries may slow down. The local government's infrastructure investment funds mainly come from land transfer income. Since 2008, the growth rate of land leasing income has dropped significantly, which will affect the scale of infrastructure construction in 2009.
4. The income growth of urban and rural residents has declined, making it more difficult to maintain the rapid growth of consumer demand.
In 2008, the rapid growth of residents' consumption was an important pillar supporting the steady and rapid economic growth in China. However, there are many factors that restrict farmers' further income increase. The adjustment of the stock market and housing market has shrunk the property income of urban residents. After deducting the price factor, the real income growth of urban and rural residents has decreased compared with previous years. After the "Olympic craze" disappears, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods may gradually slow down. The two major consumption hotspots of cars and houses began to cool down. From June to July, the sales area of commercial housing decreased 10.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 37.2 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of automobile sales slowed down by 1 1.4 percentage points. In August, the national automobile sales decreased by 5.53% month-on-month and 6.34% year-on-year. Real estate and automobile, the two major consumption hotspots, are hard to be replaced by other consumption hotspots in the short term. The nominal growth and real growth of retail sales of social consumer goods in 2009 may be lower than that in 2008.
5. The rising cost and overcapacity "meet", and the enterprise benefits are not optimistic.
In 2008, the negative effects of administrative control on the prices of refined oil, electricity and public utilities became more and more serious, and the normal order of economic operation was greatly affected. In August, the output of thermal power only increased by 1.8%, which restricted the normal growth of industrial production from the supply side. If this prominent contradiction is not resolved in time, the sharp industrial slowdown will threaten the fundamentals of China's steady and rapid economic development. In 2009, it is imperative to reform the price formation mechanism of energy and other factors in China. However, under the background of overcapacity, enterprises will face the pressure of rising costs and difficult to raise sales prices, the benefits will drop sharply, and the fiscal revenue situation will be grim. Report respondents added 2009-06-04 00:00 1. The basic orientation of macro-control is "maintaining growth and promoting transformation"
At present, the pressure of rising prices has not been fundamentally alleviated. However, judging from the price trend of domestic agricultural products, the price trend of international commodities, the trend of international currency liquidity after the subprime mortgage crisis and the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, China's domestic and international environment for controlling excessive price increases is more favorable, and the policy effect of controlling prices will be further manifested in 2009. At the same time, the subprime mortgage crisis is increasingly damaging the real economy of all countries in the world. The growth rate of some regions and industries in China has fallen too fast, and the risk of rapid economic decline is gradually increasing. It is suggested that "maintaining steady and rapid economic development and promoting the transformation and upgrading of economic structure" should be the primary policy goal of macro-control in 2009. The reason why "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" should be listed as the primary policy objectives is because the total contradiction and structural contradiction are equally prominent in China's current economic operation. To solve the current economic difficulties, we not only need to moderately relax the aggregate policy, but more importantly, only through the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure can we rebuild the new vitality of China's economic growth and regain the new international competitiveness of China's economy. Putting "maintaining growth" and "promoting transformation" side by side as the primary policy objectives is conducive to further unifying the thoughts and actions of the whole party and the whole country in dealing with complex situations, better guiding the development enthusiasm of governments and enterprises at all levels to the implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development, and preventing them from taking the old road of extensive development in order to maintain growth.
2. Implement a proactive fiscal policy and give more play to the role of the market in allocating resources.
It is suggested to implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2009. Different from the proactive fiscal policy adopted in response to the Asian financial crisis, this time it is necessary not only to expand the government's investment in construction, but also to allocate resources by the government to concentrate on major events, and more importantly, to promote economic restructuring and upgrading through market allocation of resources. Reduce the cost of enterprises and the burden of residents by reducing taxes and fees, and enhance the enthusiasm of enterprises for investment and consumption. Increase financial support for structural transformation, comprehensively implement the reform of value-added tax transformation throughout the country, and promote the upgrading of enterprise equipment; Establish a stable growth mechanism of financial investment in science and technology, increase support for scientific research in public welfare research institutions and public welfare industries, and support the revitalization of major domestic equipment manufacturing industries and the development of national strategic industries. Carry out pilot projects of venture capital for enterprise innovation to create a good policy environment for enterprise technological innovation.
It is suggested that the issuance scale of long-term construction bonds by the central government should be expanded to 200 billion yuan in 2009, mainly used for industrial development projects such as post-disaster reconstruction, national key infrastructure construction, energy conservation and emission reduction, and structural upgrading, as well as supporting the "three rural" projects, and expanding the driving role of national debt investment through bank support loans and absorbing private funds. Supplementary report to the defendant. Implement a prudent monetary policy.
In 2009, there was great uncertainty about the currency liquidity in China. It is possible that due to the further deterioration of the subprime mortgage crisis, the expectations of domestic financial institutions on the domestic economic situation and corporate profit prospects have deteriorated, and there is a widespread phenomenon of reluctance to lend. At the same time, the massive withdrawal of international hot money has led to a sharp decline in the trading volume of China's credit market, capital market and money market, which has suddenly changed from excess liquidity to insufficient liquidity, resulting in a serious shortage of funds for enterprise production and operation activities; It may also be that China's economic performance is obviously better than that of other countries, so international hot money continues to flow into China in large quantities, continuing the passive money supply situation that has existed in China in recent years, and liquidity in the banking system has a surplus. In the face of uncertainty, it is not appropriate to tighten or expand monetary policy. Therefore, it is suggested to implement a prudent monetary policy in 2009. Monetary authorities should flexibly adjust the statutory deposit reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates according to the actual situation of currency liquidity changes, control the growth rate of broad money supply at 16% ~ 17%, cancel the management of credit line, focus on strengthening the guidance of credit structure, and guide the adjustment of capital structure while attaching importance to loans from small and medium-sized enterprises.
4. Increase government investment in affordable housing and stabilize the real estate market.
In the past few years, the price of real estate rose too fast, which exceeded the affordability of urban residents. Adjustment is inevitable. The regulation of the real estate market should be oriented to improving the supply structure and meeting the demand for self-occupation, which should not only promote the rational return of housing prices, but also prevent the excessive adjustment of the market caused by the superposition of multiple unfavorable factors. Improve the supply structure, increase the supply of low-rent housing, affordable housing and ordinary housing land, and increase the supply of affordable housing and ordinary housing. Large and medium-sized cities should expand government investment in affordable housing and improve the housing security system. Financial institutions should carry out risk assessment on real estate investment projects under construction, ensure normal loans for ordinary housing, affordable housing and other real estate projects, stabilize the scale of real estate investment, ensure the normal construction and completion of real estate investment projects under construction, and prevent large-scale "uncompleted residential flats" due to the break of capital chain. It is necessary to allow listed real estate companies and other high-quality real estate enterprises to raise funds through the corporate bond market and encourage mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry. The residential transaction link tax introduced in the early stage has increased the burden on buyers and should be cancelled in time. Appropriately reduce the interest rate of residents' first home loan, cancel the special loan restriction policy of "second home", and attract residents to enter the market when house prices fall back to a reasonable level.
Report Supplementary Respondents 2009-06-04 00:00 5. Improve the consumption policy and further tap the growth potential of consumption.
To deepen the Party's understanding of the importance of expanding consumption, the new growth point of China's economy in the future will inevitably be the consumption demand of 654.38+300 million people. The most important aspect of economic restructuring is that the demand structure will shift from mainly relying on external demand to mainly relying on consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents. We should do everything possible to increase the income of urban and rural residents from the macro-income distribution, and suggest reducing the personal income tax rate of residents' savings deposit interest to zero, raising the deduction standard of wage income expenditure to 3000 yuan, increasing the actual disposable income of residents and reducing the tax burden of low-income people. Implement a proactive employment policy, expand urban and rural employment, implement the relevant policies of the Regulations on the Implementation of the Labor Contract Law, and raise the minimum wage standards in various places according to changes in the price level. Increase investment in rural commercial and trade circulation system and cultural service facilities, and improve rural consumption environment. Improve the consumption tax system and guide residents to spend reasonably. Vigorously develop tourism, culture, sports and other service consumption, and cultivate new consumption hotspots.
6. Improve foreign trade policies to help export-oriented enterprises tide over the difficulties.
It is suggested to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, weaken the expectation of RMB appreciation, eliminate the exchange rate transmission mechanism of the subprime mortgage crisis to China's exports, and prevent the exchange rate from becoming a policy tool for the United States to pass on the crisis. After the subprime mortgage crisis worsens, there will be more trade barriers in developed countries in the future, trade protection measures will be used more frequently, and trade frictions between China and foreign countries will further increase. Therefore, the government and enterprises in China should take proactive measures to solve possible disputes between China and foreign countries in a pragmatic and effective way. If necessary, it can also unite with other relevant countries to jointly resist the possibility of developed countries transferring the crisis to the international community through trade protection under the WTO framework. It can refine the different technical content and added value content of labor-intensive products, and further improve the export tax rebate rate of textile light industry encouraged products. Focus on supporting the export of independent brand products and high-tech value-added products, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of independent international marketing network and after-sales service system. It is necessary to give certain financial and technical support to small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises and help them tide over the difficulties through technological upgrading. We will continue to strictly control the export of "two high-tech and one capital" products such as grain, fertilizer, steel, coal and coke. Efforts will be made to expand the import of important resources, advanced technology and equipment and key parts.
Supplement of report respondents 2009-06-04 00:00 7. Seize the favorable opportunity to rationalize the price of resources and energy.
At present, the rising pressure of domestic agricultural products prices has gradually eased, and the prices of international commodities such as oil have fallen back in an all-round way, which provides a favorable opportunity for China to straighten out the prices of resources and energy and reform the formation mechanism of resources and energy prices. We should treat both the symptoms and root causes, focus on the root cause, and make up our minds to start the reform of the price formation mechanism of refined oil in a timely manner, accelerate the pace of electricity price reform, and promote the formation of a reasonable electricity price mechanism. We mainly use economic means to solve the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the current prices of electric coal, refined oil and heating, do a good job in ensuring the normal order of production and life from the supply side. It is necessary to further strengthen power demand side management and curb unreasonable demand. Reform the system of resource taxes and fees, improve the system of paid use of resources and the compensation mechanism of ecological environment.
2009-06-04 00:0 1 It is really very difficult to make a more accurate analysis and forecast of China's economic performance in 2009, because the difficulties and uncertainties faced by China's economy in 2009 are no less than those in 2008. However, after analysis, we believe that as long as the macro-control policies are properly handled, as a "big country economy" with relatively good economic fundamentals, China's economy can achieve growth of around 9% in a very difficult and complicated international environment; The increase of consumer price index can also be maintained below 3%.
Judging from the international environment facing China, 2009 can be said to be the worst year since 10. Many analysts believe that "stagflation" may be the keynote of global economy in 2009. However, the author thinks that "stagflation" is likely to be the trend in the next 2-3 years, but not necessarily in 2009.
Regarding economic growth, "stagnation" is a foregone conclusion. For developed countries, what is still controversial is the degree of "stagnation", that is, moderate recession? Or a severe recession? For the global economy, the focus of the debate is how much will the growth rate drop? According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund and relevant international organizations, the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis will drag the world economy into a low growth stage. The economic growth rate of the world economy in 2009 may be around 3%, which is only 2/3 of the average annual growth rate of 4.6% from 2003 to 2007. Among them, the economic growth rates of the United States, the euro zone and Japan are all struggling on the brink of recession, and there is a great possibility of zero growth, and the growth rate will not exceed 1% at most. Economic growth in emerging markets and developing countries will also slow down significantly.
However, "inflation" will not increase in 2009, and the result is likely to be lower than that in 2008. Because, with the global economic slowdown, especially the demand of developed countries for crude oil and other bulk energy and raw materials products will decline, coupled with the excessive depreciation of the US dollar in the previous two years, people's expectations for the US dollar have changed, and the US dollar has begun to rebound or at least stabilize, and the international market price level denominated in US dollars will also decline. We predict that the price of crude oil in the international market in 2009 may be around $90. Therefore, on the whole, the pressure of inflation in 2009 may be temporarily eased.
The report respondents added that the impact of the international economic environment on China's economy will be mainly reflected in two aspects: first, the slowdown of the world economy will lead to a decline in export demand; Second, the emergence of the global financial crisis will have a greater impact on people's psychology, thus making financial institutions more cautious when lending, and investors more cautious when investing. If the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-2008 on China's real economy is still very limited, then the impact in 2009 will become more real and huge. Therefore, when we take the international economic environment as the decision-making background of China's economy, we would rather take it seriously. In this way, once there is a problem, we can deal with it more calmly. Of course, we must also see that as a big country's economy, as a big country's economy with relatively limited opening to the outside world, especially in the financial field, and as well as China's good macroeconomic fundamentals and balance of payments, we can say that we have better conditions and greater room for manoeuvre to cope with and mitigate the adverse effects brought about by international economic shocks. Undoubtedly, we need to take some measures, such as adjusting the export tax rebate policy, to help enterprises make the impact of the decline in export demand as small as possible. However, it should also be noted that as long as the decline of the foreign trade surplus is not too big, this influence will have certain positive significance for China to solve the problem of excessive trade surplus. As for the psychological impact of external shocks, as long as we can clearly explain China's advantages, the government's confidence and the measures to be taken, and gain the public's understanding and trust, we can reduce this impact to a relatively small extent.
From the domestic environment, economic growth and inflation are still the primary relationship that should be balanced in macro-control. "Maintaining growth and preventing inflation" is the correct choice for macro-control, but in 2008, the focus should be on maintaining growth rather than preventing inflation. The main reason for this choice is that in 2008, the increase of consumer price index in China has dropped to a low level. But at the same time, the inflationary pressure facing China's economy does not allow us to maintain growth simply through expansion; The requirements of scientific development do not allow us to maintain growth simply through expansion. Moreover, because the fundamentals of China's economy are still good, the balance of payments is also good, and the basic driving forces for economic development, such as high savings rate and relatively abundant labor force, are still there. Large economies have great ability to cope with international shocks and do not need to overreact to moderate economic growth. At present, a series of fiscal and monetary policies are correct, but we should also pay attention to overcorrection.
Respondents' Supplementary Report 2009-06-04 00:0 1 Inflation can be controlled within 3% if only measured by CPI. The reasons are as follows: first, agriculture continued to get a bumper harvest in 2008; Second, China's consumer goods production capacity is still surplus; Third, the world economic downturn has led to a decline in the prices of bulk commodities such as energy and raw materials in the international market; Fourth, the lagging influence of macro-control in previous years, especially in 2008. According to the current level, the rise of CPI in 2008 is almost zero to the hikes formed in 2009. However, we must not implement excessively loose monetary and fiscal policies, because the economic growth rate of around 9% is not low. No matter in which country, it is impossible for the economy to run in an interval that exceeds the potential economic growth capacity for a long time. Bubbles always burst. Instead of ups and downs and destructive adjustments, it is better to develop step by step and steadily. Moreover, from the perspective of the potential pressure of inflation in China, we need to continue to pay enough attention to preventing inflation. Because in 2008, the price index PPI of industrial products and the price index of upstream products such as raw materials, fuel and power all rose in the high range, ranging from 10% to 16%. After a certain time lag, it will affect the prices of downstream goods and services such as consumer prices in 2009. With the development of economy and the implementation of the new "Labor Contract Law" and its detailed rules, labor costs will still increase at a faster rate. The prices of assets such as real estate are still at a high level. Passive currency issuance caused by trade surplus and capital inflow will continue, and the excess liquidity in previous years has not been fully digested. Supplement to the economic growth report. From the perspective of supply, production capacity is not a problem, mainly depending on the rising degree of production costs and the tightness of credit funds. As the government has realized the seriousness of the problem, the overlapping factors of rising production costs are decreasing from the policy level; Credit policy has also begun to tilt towards the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. So the key to economic growth is the sales volume of products, that is, whether the demand is strong enough. In 2009, external demand will continue to weaken, and the trade surplus can be maintained at around 200 billion US dollars, which is 10% lower than that in 2008. The main reason is that about 40% of China's total import and export trade is still processing trade; During the economic depression, the international competitiveness of China's low-priced and high-quality goods can further play a role. Therefore, the trade surplus will not fall too much. The growth rate of consumer demand will also drop slightly. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the growth rate of residents' personal income is lower than that in 2007, and the weak stock market and housing market lead to the shrinking of residents' asset income; On the other hand, residents' consumption has certain stability, and generally there will be no ups and downs. Moreover, China is in the stage of urbanization and building a well-off society in an all-round way, and the demand for residents to improve their lives is still relatively strong. The above analysis shows that maintaining a certain growth rate of economic growth mainly depends on the investment demand of fixed assets. From a broad perspective, the demand for fixed assets investment is divided into three parts: infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and real estate investment. Among them, the investment in manufacturing industry is affected by the relative overcapacity and the world economic recession, so it is difficult to make a big breakthrough, and the focus should be on structural adjustment such as technological innovation, standard innovation and product innovation. Real estate investment has exceeded the affordability of residents to some extent in the case of rapid rise in real estate prices in previous years. It needs a process of rest and bubble release, and it is difficult to continue to grow at a higher speed as in previous years. In this regard, appropriate policy control and psychological counseling should be taken to keep the real estate price level at a certain growth rate on the basis of a moderate decline. Because, at this stage, it is very necessary and urgent for China residents to improve their living conditions. Moreover, real estate investment is still an important pillar of national economic development. The specific suggestions are to encourage normal housing demand, curb speculative demand and ensure the basic housing demand of low-income groups. In particular, governments at all levels should increase financial investment in the construction of low-rent housing to maintain the growth of real estate investment, improve the living conditions of low-income people and expand consumption. Infrastructure investment is an area where the government should and can make a difference, because many infrastructures, such as transportation and communication, are public goods and should be guided by government organizations to invest. In addition, when economic growth is weak, the government should take some stimulus measures. Moreover, the fiscal revenue has grown rapidly in recent years, and the fiscal balance is good, which can make a difference. To sum up, from the demand point of view, the economic situation faced by China in 2009 is rather grim, which needs to be dealt with seriously in order to better resolve the crisis.