[Keywords:] social security; Consumer demand growth; Granger causality test; Regression analysis
[China Library Classification Number] F047 [Document Identification Number] A [Document Number]1672-2426 (2012) 08-0062-03
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the contribution rate of China's net exports to GDP growth has dropped from 18. 1% in 2007 to 9.2% in 20 10. Therefore, many domestic scholars have shifted the main driving force of economic growth from exports to consumer demand. However, the consumption rate in China is declining, from 62.3% in 2000 to 47.4% in 20 10, far below the average level of most countries in the world. Therefore, promoting the growth of consumer demand is not only related to the transformation of China's economic growth mode, but also related to social harmony and people's livelihood stability.
In Keynes's consumption function, income is the most important factor affecting consumption. Consumption is first affected by income. The more income, the more consumption, the less income and the less consumption, and the two show the same changing relationship. Keynes pointed out that due to subjective and objective factors, the marginal propensity to consume is usually less than 1. In other words, when a person earns 1 yuan more, he will spend part of it and save the other part. Therefore, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in income. Keynes further asserted that with the increase of income, the average propensity to consume also showed a downward trend. In fact, in addition to the income factor, the social security system gradually improved with the economic development is also an important factor to promote the growth of consumer demand. A sound social security system can effectively eliminate the worries of residents' consumption. This paper uses empirical analysis to illustrate the relationship among consumer demand, income and social security.
I. Description of variables and data
Considering the availability of data, the data selected in this paper are all from China Statistical Yearbook, and the data from 1995 to 20 10 are selected as sample data. This paper adopts "per capita annual consumption expenditure" as the consumption index, which is expressed by CC. Use "average disposable income per person per year" as the income index, expressed by YY; In terms of social security, in view of the fact that it is impossible to obtain the data of residents' social security expenditure, and medical expenditure is the most important expenditure in social security expenditure, which has the most direct impact on residents, we use "medical care expenditure" to replace social security expenditure, which is expressed in mm.
Second, the empirical analysis results
According to the above indicators, the influence of income and social security on consumer demand is analyzed by multiple linear regression.
1. Variable unit root test
Because the data are all time series, it is necessary to test the unit root of the time series. Stationarity test can avoid false regression between multiple non-stationary time series, so before analyzing variables, ADF test is used to test the unit roots of the above five variables.
After unit root test, the above three variables are non-stationary time series. After second-order difference, the original hypothesis is rejected at 5% significance level, and all five variables are second-order unary series. Therefore, the relationship between the three variables can be analyzed in the long run.
2. Granger causality test
In order to test whether there is a causal relationship between consumption CC and income YY and social security expenditure MM, Granger causality tests are conducted on consumption and income, consumption and social security expenditure respectively. The lag order is 2, and the test results are shown in Table 2.
As can be seen from Table 2, the hypothesis that YY is not the Granger cause of CC is rejected, and the hypothesis that CC is not the Granger cause of YY is accepted. It denies the hypothesis that "MM is not the Granger cause of CC" and accepts the hypothesis that "CC is not the Granger cause of MM". Therefore, income and social security expenditure are both factors that lead to changes in consumer demand, that is, the increase of income and the improvement of social security system can promote the growth of consumer demand.
3. Regression analysis
After Granger causality test, income and social security expenditure are both factors that cause changes in consumer demand. Therefore, the following regression model is established:
Using EVIEWS software, the following least square estimation results are obtained:
The figures in brackets are the values of t statistics, and all regression coefficients pass the significance test at 5% significance level. The value of DW indicates that the residual sequence has no autocorrelation, and the value of R2 indicates that the goodness of fit of the model is very high.
Judging from the regression results, disposable income is still the main factor affecting the consumption demand of urban residents. The disposable income increased by 1 unit, and the consumption demand increased by 0.603 unit, which was in line with the theory of consumption demand. Regression analysis shows that the most important factor affecting consumer demand is social security expenditure, which has exceeded disposable income. Every additional unit of social security expenditure (MMt) will lead to an increase in consumer demand by 1.277 units, and there is a significant positive correlation between them.
Through Granger causality test and regression analysis of consumer demand, disposable income and social security expenditure, we can draw a conclusion that disposable income and social security expenditure have a one-way causal relationship with consumer demand, that is, the improvement of income level will help promote the growth of consumer demand, and the improvement of social security system will also expand consumer demand. From the results of regression analysis, we can see that the perfect social security system plays a greater role in expanding consumer demand than income, and the construction of social security system is the most important factor affecting consumer demand.
Three. conclusion and suggestion
1. Conclusion
From the above analysis, we can see that the improvement of social security system is the most important factor affecting consumer demand, and there is an obvious positive correlation between them. According to traditional theory, income, the most important factor affecting consumer demand, ranks second in this regression analysis, and its influence on consumer demand is only half that of social security. Therefore, to expand domestic demand and promote the growth of consumer demand, we should not only greatly increase residents' income, but also establish a sound social security system. It can be said that a perfect social security system is the key to build a long-term mechanism to expand domestic demand.
2. Relevant suggestions
(1) Establish and improve the legal system of social security. At present, there is no social security law in China, which leads to the lack of compulsion and stability in the construction of social security system in China. A comprehensive social security law should cover all the contents of social security systems such as social insurance, social assistance and social welfare, and also embody the concept and basic principles of social security system construction.
(2) Improve the social security system. First, medical insurance coverage should be further expanded. This includes two meanings: first, let the whole people participate in medical insurance; The second is to increase the scope of medical insurance reimbursement, so that sick people can afford to see the disease without worrying about medical expenses. Secondly, the coverage of unemployment insurance should be expanded. Not only urban workers should join unemployment insurance, but also migrant workers who meet certain conditions should be included in the scope of unemployment insurance, and the compensation standard of unemployment insurance should be gradually improved. Secondly, further promote and popularize endowment insurance. At present, urban residents have basically participated in the old-age insurance, while most of the rural population has not been covered by the public pension system. Therefore, we should continue to popularize old-age insurance in rural areas, so that everyone who reaches retirement age has a sense of security and protection. Finally, improve the minimum living security system and special assistance. The minimum living guarantee is of great practical significance for solving the basic living problems of urban and rural low-income groups. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the living conditions of low-income families, increase financial support for social assistance from governments at all levels, increase special subsidies and social assistance to needy groups, and gradually improve the level of social assistance to ensure their basic livelihood.
(3) Promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and raise the income level of low-and middle-income people. The essence of social security is to provide a system for members of society to avoid social risks. However, under the condition that China's social security system is not perfect, family is the main form to provide security for members of society. At present, the basis of family security in China is personal income. Increasing residents' income can not only improve the level of social security with family as the basic unit, but also effectively promote demand, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone. Therefore, the government should actively promote the reform of fiscal and taxation system and improve the income level of residents. The backbone of social consumption in China is the middle and low income class, which happens to be a group with relatively low social security level and is also a taxpayer of personal income tax. The tax burden has seriously curbed the consumption of this group. Therefore, we must first adjust the personal income tax. The State Council has made a decision to raise the threshold of personal income tax from 2,000 yuan to 3,500 yuan from September 201/year, which has alleviated the tax burden of low-and middle-income people to a certain extent, but it is still far from enough, and the deduction standard of personal income tax needs to be adjusted. The deduction standard of personal income tax should fully consider the specific affordability of different families and allow the deduction of costs and living expenses. And the deduction standard should be adjusted once a year with the change of price level. Use the adjustment of personal income tax deduction standard to increase the disposable income of low-and middle-income people and let them really play the role of the backbone of social consumption. The problem of high income in some industries or departments can be solved by reforming the current profit sharing system of state-owned enterprises and introducing competition.
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Editor Wei Yanan