Keywords interest rate marketization; Commercial banks; Coping strategy
In fact, according to the idea that money market interest rate and bond market interest rate should be marketized first, and then deposit and loan interest rate should be marketized step by step, China's interest rate marketization reform has gone through a long process and made breakthrough progress. Especially in recent years, the central bank has taken a series of measures to promote the reform of interest rate marketization, such as liberalizing the interest rate of interbank deposits of financial institutions, allowing financial institutions to determine their own interest settlement rules for other types of deposits except demand deposits and fixed-term lump-sum deposits, and launching pilot interest rate swaps. These measures undoubtedly provide more space for commercial banks to set their own prices.
But at the same time, with the gradual approach of interest rate marketization, state-owned commercial banks will also face more risks. For example, the People's Bank of China clearly stated in its monetary policy implementation report in the fourth quarter of 2005 that a number of reforms will be implemented in 2006 to steadily promote the marketization of interest rates, of which the two most important ones include: the marketization of long-term large deposit interest rates, and the establishment and implementation of a dynamic adjustment and rediscount interest rate mechanism. This will have a great impact on enterprise financing and bank capital utilization: the dilemma of high capital cost and low operating income of state-owned commercial banks may be aggravated. This undoubtedly poses a new challenge to the risk control ability of commercial banks. How to calmly deal with the situation of interest rate marketization, improve the level of interest rate risk management, and be invincible in the increasingly open economic environment has become an important content of asset management of commercial banks in China today.
First, an overview of contemporary interest rate policy theory
Interest rate marketization needs a certain theoretical basis as a guide. The long-term debate among classical interest rate theory, neoclassical interest rate theory, Keynes and neoclassical comprehensive interest rate determination theory has discussed "What determines the interest rate?" This fundamental problem. Mckinnon, Xiao and New Institutional Finance also demonstrated the objective requirements of interest rate marketization from their own perspectives. The demonstration and regression of many theories have demonstrated a core point, that is, interest rate marketization is an objective law. This also provides a theoretical basis for interest rate marketization in developed countries and even China. Compared with this, the theoretical research of China's interest rate market is still lagging behind, but through the unremitting efforts of a group of scholars, a set of academic theories with "China characteristics" is finally explored, which guides the process of interest rate marketization in China.
1. The meaning of interest rate
What is the interest rate? This is a problem that we must first understand before studying the theory of interest rate marketization. In fact, it is difficult for us to give a clear definition of interest rate because it contains too many categories. Microscopically, interest rate is the price of loan funds and the rate of return of financial assets. From a macro perspective, interest rate is an important means to adjust the allocation of resources (funds), a hub for the transmission of monetary policy, and an important tool for the government to carry out macro-control. Here, we define interest rate as the ratio of interest paid to the principal of financial debt (credit, creditor's rights, etc.). ), which is an index to measure the interest level, is also a concrete embodiment of the time value of money. It is precisely because of the complex economic relations hidden in interest rates that interest rates have always been an economic field explored and studied by economists and an important tool for the government to regulate economic development.
2. Interest rate determination theory
Interest rate marketization needs a certain theoretical basis as a guide. Classical interest rate theory, neoclassical interest rate theory, Keynes and neoclassical comprehensive interest rate determination theory have been arguing for a long time, discussing "what determines interest rate?" This question.
The theoretical core of the classical interest rate theory is that both savings and investment determine the real interest rate, and the interest rate can spontaneously adjust the economic imbalance. It can be seen that its essence is a market-oriented interest rate determination theory and the embryonic form of interest rate marketization theory in the modern sense. However, in the world economic crisis that broke out in 1930s, this view was greatly challenged. At the same time, Keynes put forward his liquidity preference theory.
Keynes's liquidity preference interest rate theory holds that interest is compensation for people to give up liquidity and pursue profit, and interest rate is an index to measure people's liquidity preference. Interest rate is a pure monetary phenomenon, which is determined when the amount of money people want to hold is equal to the actual money stock, that is, the money demand is equal to the money supply. The imbalance of interest rate level will be adjusted by people's choice of currency and bonds. Based on the analysis of Keynes's viewpoint, some scholars think that Keynes emphasized that interest rates are determined by money demand, and money demand is manipulated by the government. The government can expand investment through fiscal deficit or monetary expansion (liberalizing currency issuance), which will affect interest rates and keep them at a low level. Therefore, for quite some time, Keynes's interest rate determination theory has become the theoretical source of interest rate control in various countries, and all countries in the world have taken this as the guiding ideology to strictly control the economy and finance. But at the same time, he regarded interest rate as a purely monetary phenomenon and was criticized by many people.
After Keynes, his student D.H.Roberson and others put forward loanable funds's interest rate theory, which regarded interest as the price of borrowing funds. Therefore, the interest rate should be determined by the supply and demand of funds available for borrowing. Loanable funds's demand mainly includes investment and money storage, while its supply mainly comes from savings and the increase of money supply. When the supply and demand in the loanable funds market reach a balance, the equilibrium interest rate level will be determined accordingly. Its essence also emphasizes that the interest rate is determined by the supply and demand of the whole society in loanable funds, that is, the interest rate is determined by the market. However, at the same time, he ignored the respective equilibrium of commodity market and money market.
In order to make up for the above shortcomings, many scholars have made useful attempts, among which Hicks and Hansen's IS-LM model analysis is the most successful one. The IS-LM model holds that the equilibrium between commodity market and money market should be comprehensively investigated based on investment demand function, savings function, liquidity preference function and money supply, and the mutual determining relationship between income and interest rate should be investigated by using the interest rate theory of liquidity preference and loanable funds's interest rate theory for reference. It emphasizes that interest rates are determined by the market, and it also requires controlling the upper limit of interest rates for the central bank to control.
The above-mentioned traditional interest rate determination theory runs through different stages of capitalist economic development, and its background is the degree of capitalist economic development in different stages, which comes from contradictions and problems in different stages of development. Although the interest rate is ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand, thus realizing the marketization of interest rates. Although the above theory is based on developed capitalist countries, it also has certain reference value for the interest rate marketization reform in China.
3. Mckinnon and Xiao's theory of interest rate suppression and interest rate marketization.
Mckinnon and Xiao were the first economists to pay attention to the financial development of developing countries. In their book 1973, they pointed out that financial repression is a typical feature of the economic development strategy of developing countries. Among them, interest rate suppression 2 is an important means of financial suppression. In the environment of financial repression, on the one hand, the low deposit interest rate inhibits people's desire to save, resulting in insufficient supply of funds. On the other hand, due to the limitation of loan interest rate, borrowers can get loans at very low or even negative interest rates. But it also reduces the ability of financial institutions to invest their savings. Mckinnon and Xiao believe that in order to stimulate financial growth, financial reform measures of interest rate marketization should be implemented. In their view, interest rate liberalization has improved the return of domestic private sector savings and will have more opportunities to diversify domestic financial assets. The increase of savings rate has expanded the scale of financial institutions and provided financial support for more material capital investors.
4. Herman and Stiglitz's financial restraint and interest rate control.
In 1990s, the achievements of information economics were widely used in various fields. Many economists have analyzed "moral hazard" and "adverse selection" in the financial field on the premise of incomplete information. Herman, Stiglitz and others put forward the theory of financial constraint 3 in 1998. The theory of financial repression and the theory of financial liberalization are tit for tat, which mainly emphasize the necessity and rationality of the government's proper control of the interest rate ceiling from the perspective of information asymmetry and supervision. It believes that due to information asymmetry and externalities, financial markets are most prone to market failures. A certain degree of policy intervention can not only make the market play a better role, but also help to improve the economic performance of various departments.
5. Theoretical research on interest rate marketization in China.
The systematic study of interest rate marketization in China started late, but it has formed a set of relatively complete academic theories at the macro level, thus guiding the development of China's marketization process.
(1) Definition of interest rate marketization
Because interest rate is a complex system, the reform of interest rate marketization is naturally a quite complex system engineering. Li Yang believes that the interest rate marketization reform at least includes the following four points: ① The essence of interest rate marketization is to change the risk of financing activities; ② Because of the diversity of financing activities, it is difficult to find a "one-step plan", so it is inevitable that interest rates will coexist in two tracks for a long time. Promoting the formation of benchmark interest rate by promoting the development of money market is one of the important contents of reform. ④ The interest rate level determined by the laissez-faire market cannot automatically guarantee the stable growth and full employment of the national economy. Therefore, the monetary authorities must always keep control of interest rates. Under the condition of marketization, it is mainly manifested in having sufficient and effective market means to influence the interest rate trend through open market operations.
(2) The timing and conditions of interest rate liberalization in China.
Most scholars do not agree with the radical reform path of interest rate marketization, and the gradual interest rate marketization is considered to be a more secure plan. The radical way is not desirable, Qian believes, 5. This is because the complete liberalization of interest rates may have the following three effects: ① Due to the long-standing funding gap, speculative factors and their effects will promote the demand for funds, thus increasing the funding gap. (2) The interest rate fluctuates greatly, which leads to the requirement of maintaining the value of financial assets and the emergence of financial derivatives, thus leading to the emergence of speculation, which further aggravates the fluctuation of interest rates. Rising interest rates will bring difficulties to the operation of state-owned enterprises, and social funds may flow from the production field to the circulation field or the virtual field.
Some scholars believe that interest rate marketization should follow a specific order. ① Marketization of interest rate in interbank lending market; ② Marketization of national debt interest rate; ③ Establish a market-oriented benchmark interest rate of the central bank; (4) Liberalize the loan interest rate, and then liberalize the deposit interest rate.
Second, the practice of interest rate marketization.
The marketization of interest rate is the objective need of economic and financial development to a certain extent. Since the late 1970s and early 1980s, most western countries have shown the trend of interest rate marketization, and the interest rate in financial markets is more determined by the market, forming the trend of international interest rate marketization. With the deepening of China's economic marketization and financial reform, interest rate has gradually become an important financial lever, and the pace of interest rate marketization has obviously accelerated. The implementation of interest rate marketization in different market economy countries has produced different effects, but the interest rate management system in both developed and developing countries is developing in the direction of increasingly relaxing state management, deepening the scope and degree of market freedom and liberalizing interest rates.
1. Interest rate difference between developed and developing countries in the process of marketization.
Interest rate marketization exists in both developed and developing countries, but there are considerable differences in the implementation process. In developed countries, the market mechanism is relatively sound, and interest rates and finance are regulated for some specific reasons. Under the new historical conditions, interest rate control and control over financial institutions should be relaxed, which is a natural thing and there is no big obstacle. The main problem it faces is the timing of opening up. For example, the interest rate marketization reform in the United States took a long time, from 1970 to 1986, but it played a positive role in restraining "financial disintermediation", enhancing interest rate sensitivity and inter-bank competition. The interest rate liberalization in these countries has little impact on the overall economy, and the mature market can absorb the negative effects of interest rate liberalization more quickly, making the positive effects of interest rate liberalization more prominent.
In developing countries, the situation is more complicated. After interest rate marketization, the real interest rate level and the real rate of return of money will be greatly improved, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of capital use. However, because other supporting reform measures may not be fully in place, it is difficult to further implement financial liberalization and bring about overall economic instability. Therefore, in developing countries, before interest rate marketization, we should first cultivate the preconditions of interest rate marketization, and pay attention to preventing risks and macroeconomic instability in the process of interest rate marketization.
2. China interest rate marketization reform process and reform ideas.
The marketization of interest rate is a major change in China's financial system, and it is also the need to establish and improve the socialist market economic system. According to the spirit of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the goal of China's interest rate marketization reform is to establish an interest rate formation mechanism that determines the deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions by market supply and demand. The central bank uses monetary policy tools to regulate and guide the market interest rate, so that the market mechanism plays a leading role in the allocation of financial resources. The principle of its reform is to correctly handle the relationship between interest rate marketization reform, financial market stability and healthy development of the financial industry, correctly handle the coordination relationship between local and foreign currency interest rate policies, and gradually dilute the financial functions undertaken by interest rate policies. Determine that the reform idea is foreign currency first, then local currency; Loan first, then deposit; Long-term, big, short-term, small 7.
By combing the relevant policies issued by the central bank for decades, we can draw the conclusion that China has made long and sufficient preparations for the interest rate marketization reform:
1June, 1996, China liberalized the interbank lending market interest rate, and realized that both borrowers and borrowers could independently determine the lending rate according to the supply and demand of market funds, which opened the prelude to the interest rate marketization reform. Since then, China's interest rate control has gradually relaxed, and interest rate marketization reform measures have been introduced one after another.
Following 1997, China has successively liberalized the bond market interest rate and the issuance interest rate of government bonds and policy financial bonds in the inter-bank market; Liberalize the interest rates of domestic foreign currency loans and large foreign currency deposits; Pilot RMB long-term large-sum agreement deposits; Gradually expand the floating range of RMB loan interest rate.
On June 2004, 65438+ 10 1, the central bank once again expanded the floating range of loan interest rates of financial institutions; On March 25, the floating interest rate system for refinancing was implemented; 10 year10.29, the upper limit of loan interest rate of commercial banks was released, the upper limit of floating loan interest rate of urban and rural credit cooperatives was expanded to 2.3 times of the benchmark interest rate, and the RMB deposit interest rate was lowered, thus achieving the phased goal of "controlling the lower limit of loan interest rate and the upper limit of deposit interest rate".
On June 365438+1October 3 1 day, 2005, the central bank issued the Report on Steadily Promoting the Marketization of Interest Rates. On March 16 of the same year, the central bank sharply lowered the interest rate of excess reserve deposits again and fully liberalized the interest rate of interbank deposits of financial institutions. Interest settlement rules allow financial institutions to decide on their own deposit types other than current and fixed-term lump-sum deposits.
On February 2 1 2006, the People's Bank of China pointed out in the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2005 that in 2006, the central bank will, as always, follow the principle of gradual progress and take a series of measures to continue to promote interest rate marketization. Specifically, it includes: appropriately simplifying the term grade of the benchmark loan interest rate and promoting the marketization of long-term large deposit interest rates; Research and launch interest rate derivatives; Perfecting the interest rate system of the central bank; Improve the interest rate pricing ability of commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives.
On the other hand, we can also see that from June 65438 to1October 24, 2006, the central bank allowed domestic commercial banks to carry out RMB interest rate swap transactions in order to speed up the process of interest rate marketization; On April 27th of the same year, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate of 1 year loan from 5.58% to 5.85% for the first time in the past 0 years, which not only consolidated the macro-control achievements, but also improved the operating environment of commercial banks in the process of market-oriented reform. Lenovo, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, publicly admitted that the interest rate marketization reform in China was slower than other reforms. The central bank hopes that this process will go faster and is actively promoting commercial banks to develop in this direction; At present, the conditions of interest rate marketization in China are becoming more and more mature, and commercial banks should further learn to decide the deposit and loan prices independently. We should have reason to believe that the interest rate marketization in China is gradually approaching.
Third, the impact of interest rate liberalization on China commercial banks.
In China's WTO accession agreement, it is promised to gradually open interest rates within three years and open all markets to foreign banks within five years. The marketization of interest rate will become an irreversible historical trend. For China's commercial banks, both interest rate liberalization and market access of foreign banks will face more intense and severe competition and challenges. In this sense, the interest rate marketization reform in China will not only improve the market system, but also reshape the banking industry in China.
1. The marketization of interest rates has created good development opportunities for China's commercial banks.
The interest rate marketization reform can create a good business environment for Chinese commercial banks, expand their operational autonomy, promote the transformation of commercial banks from extensive business model to intensive business model, reduce financial risks and promote financial innovation, thus enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese commercial banks.
(1) interest rate marketization creates a standardized operating environment for commercial banks.
The process of interest rate marketization is essentially the process of cultivating the transformation of financial market from low level to high level, and the experience of foreign reform also tells us that the rapid development and improvement of financial market benefits from financial liberalization, in which interest rate marketization is indispensable. In February, 2006, in order to speed up the process of interest rate marketization, the central bank carried out the pilot project of interest rate swap, which provided a tool for commercial banks to manage interest rate risk and met the needs of loan customers for interest rate risk management. Feng, executive vice mayor of Shanghai, said that the construction of Shanghai financial derivatives trading market will strive to break through nine in 2006. The marketization of interest rate in China will eventually promote the formation of a perfect financial market: the financing instruments are complete in variety and reasonable in structure; The information disclosure system is adequate; Having a supervision system with legal and economic means; The main body of financial market is fully competitive. All these will create a good environment for the operation of commercial banks in China.
(2) Marketization of interest rate can promote the change of business behavior of commercial banks.
The marketization of interest rates has changed the soft constraints of commercial banks' budgets under the conditions of interest rate control in the past, which is conducive to the implementation of commercial banks' operational autonomy, further establishing the independent operating status of banks, and truly achieving "independent operation, self-risk, self-financing and self-restraint". At the same time, the marketization of interest rates will make the competition between banks and even the financial industry more intense. Only when banks have strong budget constraints, sound internal risk and cost control systems, and scientific and reasonable pricing can they adapt to interest rate marketization, which will promote fundamental changes in the bank's operating mechanism.
(3) Marketization of interest rates is conducive to reducing financial risks.
Under the condition of interest rate marketization, commercial banks can control the interest rate level and adjust it in time by predicting market trends, establishing debt portfolio and increasing the proportion of active liabilities, so as to obtain more profits through differential pricing and risk compensation mechanism; We can also use the price lever of interest rate to make some inefficient projects retreat, thus reducing financial risks.
(4) Marketization of interest rate is conducive to improving the international competitiveness of commercial banks.
The marketization of interest rates improves the competition among banks, which is conducive to promoting financial innovation and commercial banks to introduce new financial tools, products and services. In the process of interest rate marketization in China, commercial banks can gradually adapt to the new financial environment. Reducing the impact of the influx of foreign financial institutions on China's commercial banks caused by a large number of new business methods and tools in the money market and capital market is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of China's commercial banks.
2. The challenges brought by interest rate marketization to China's commercial banks.
After China's entry into WTO, the transition period left for Chinese banks will be exhausted, and whether the bank funds can operate in the market is one of the important factors for Chinese banks to win in the future. Interest rate marketization is like a "double-edged sword". It not only brings development opportunities to China's commercial banks, but also increases the risks faced by commercial banks and brings challenges to China's commercial banks.
(1) Market-oriented reform leads to interest rate risk and makes interest rate management more difficult.
Interest rate risk is the most direct problem brought by marketization to commercial banks, which refers to the possibility of net interest income loss to commercial banks due to the change of interest rate and the mismatch of assets and liabilities in a certain period of time. At present, the interest rate risks faced by commercial banks are mainly as follows: interest rate sensitivity gap risk, interest rate structure risk and customer choice interest rate risk.
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