The "5-Day War" had a far-reaching impact.
The military conflict between Russia and Georgia is an important sign that the geopolitical game in Europe has intensified and entered a relatively unstable period. On the whole, this conflict is the result of the interaction and all-round "fermentation" of various contradictions under the background of fierce confrontation between Russia and the United States and Europe around the new round of NATO's eastward expansion, Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, the deployment of anti-missile systems and the establishment of military bases in Eastern Europe by the United States, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO's eastward expansion has compressed Russia's strategic space twice in a row, and Russia has lost a large strategic buffer zone and middle zone in Central and Eastern Europe. The NATO summit in April this year decided to carry out a new round of eastward expansion. The first goal is to consolidate and strengthen control over the Balkans by admitting Albania and Croatia into NATO and recognizing Kosovo's independence. The second is to win over Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO, push the defense front to the Black Sea and Caucasus, and continue to squeeze Russia's strategic space. Ukraine and Georgia are the existing strategic buffer zones and barriers between Russia and NATO in the west and southwest. Without this region, Russia has no danger to defend and no barrier to stop, so Russia has designated this region as NATO's "insurmountable red line."
Faced with the strategic containment of NATO led by the United States, Russia has had enough and cannot retreat. After the national strength recovered to a certain extent, Russia made a strategic counterattack and sent troops to "punish" Georgia, which was precisely the "blocking war" of Russia's aggressive offensive against the United States and Europe. It not only severely warned Ukraine, Georgia and other CIS countries that took refuge in the West, but also showed Russia's determination to safeguard the country's core security interests to the United States and Europe.
The consequences of the "5-day war" between Russia and Georgia directly led to the deterioration of US-Russian relations, the tension between Europe and Russia, and the "freezing" of relations between Russia and NATO. While condemning Russia's "excessive use of force", the United States, Europe and NATO increased their economic and military assistance to Georgia and supported Georgia to continue its confrontation with Russia. After the conflict, the United States and Canada accelerated the deployment of anti-missile systems and quickly reached an agreement with Poland. The EU suspended negotiations on the new EU- Russia strategic partnership and cooperation agreement and put pressure on Russia; NATO has frozen its relations with Russia and established the NATO-Georgia Committee to help Georgia rebuild its army. Russia not only recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and established diplomatic relations with them, but also decided to establish military bases and deploy troops in these two regions. Russia has also announced that it will deploy iskander missiles in Kaliningrad to counter the US anti-missile system. The cloud of confrontation hangs over Europe.
However, neither Russia nor the United States and Europe want to see the relationship between the two sides continue to be tense or deteriorate, and "fighting without breaking" is still the basic law. The first is Europe and Russia. Maintaining normal relations is in line with the strategic interests of both sides. While actively mediating the conflict between Russia and Georgia, the EU decided to resume negotiations with Russia on June 5438+065438+ 10 and hold a Russia-Europe summit. The two sides agreed to hold a Pan-European Security Conference in the middle of next year to discuss how to establish a new European security system. The "old European" countries in NATO are unwilling to excessively stimulate Russia on the issue of NATO's eastward expansion, and the qualifications of Ukraine and Georgia to participate in NATO's "Member Action Plan" have been put on hold again. The United States and Russia are also looking for ways to ease relations.
The crux of the problem is to what extent the United States and Europe can make concessions to Russia. Russia pinned its hopes for improving Russia-US relations on President-elect Obama, hoping that the United States would abandon its anti-missile plan in Eastern Europe and stop NATO's eastward expansion. Obviously, as long as the United States and Europe do not give up the containment policy against Russia, the fundamental contradiction between Russia and the United States and Europe will be difficult to eliminate. (The author is Zhang Zhengdong, a researcher at the World Research Center of Xinhua News Agency)
Special feature: Foreign media commented on the war between Georgia and Russia, saying that Russia has three major failures.
The Georgian-Russian war shows that the Russian army is still strong, but it still has defects.
Although the Russian army has won a great victory, it also has many weaknesses.
In this Georgian-Russian war, Russian soldiers sat on the top of armored personnel carriers and went into battle. This is not a bluff, but because in the memory of the Russian army, foot attacks are often more dangerous.
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