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Attachment: Summary of my thesis.
abstract
In the process of economic growth, factor input plays a fundamental role. It can be said that there is a close relationship between economic growth and factor input in Shandong Province. By studying the input of factors in the process of economic growth in Shandong Province, this paper summarizes the real reasons of economic growth in Shandong Province, and puts forward scientific suggestions for future economic development, which is of great practical significance for Shandong Province to change the mode of economic growth, choose a reasonable combination of input of factors, use limited resources to achieve maximum economic growth, and then achieve sustainable economic development.
This paper takes the factor input in the process of economic growth as the research object. First of all, based on the theory of new economic growth and the related theories of new institutional economics, this paper summarizes various factors that affect economic growth. Then, according to the general form of Cobb-Douglas production function, combined with economic theory, it is improved to get the economic growth model of regional factors input; Then, according to the economic growth model of regional factor input, the contribution of each factor input is calculated by using the relevant data of factor input in Shandong Province in recent years for modeling and parameter estimation. Finally, according to the calculation results, draw a conclusion, summarize the reasons of economic growth in Shandong Province, clarify the existing problems of economic growth, and give reasonable suggestions to accelerate economic growth in Shandong Province.
The main results are as follows:
1. According to the relevant theories of economics and calculus, the economic growth model of Shandong Province is established, which includes five factors: labor input, material capital input, foreign investment, human capital input and institutional factors. The selection of factors not only combines the basic theory of economics, but also considers the reality of Shandong Province, which can truly reflect the reality of economic growth in Shandong Province.
2. Use statistical methods to estimate the parameters of the model, that is, the output elasticity of each factor, and calculate the contribution rate of each factor to economic growth. According to the calculation results, (1) Shandong's economic growth is driven by capital, and the contribution rate of material capital to economic growth has increased in recent years. Although the contribution rate of physical capital investment is large, its output elasticity is relatively small, only 0.3662, which shows that the contribution of physical capital investment to economic growth in Shandong Province is realized through large investment, and the output efficiency of physical capital is not high; (2) The contribution rate of labor input in Shandong Province decreased. In the early days of reform and opening up, the economic growth of Shandong Province mainly depended on labor input. In the later period of economic growth, the contribution of labor input decreased year by year, from the initial 24.96% to 10.52% during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. (3) Foreign capital has not yet played its due role. The output elasticity of foreign capital is 0.0376, which is the smallest among several factors considered. The growth rate of foreign investment is relatively large. In several stages we considered, except the growth rate of physical capital during 1997-2000, the growth rate of foreign investment in other years was the highest, and it also reached a high growth rate of 40.42% between 199 1- 1997. However, due to the small output elasticity of foreign capital, the contribution of foreign capital has been very small; (4) The contribution rate of human capital investment is not commensurate with its elasticity coefficient. The output elasticity of human capital is second only to labor input in several factors, but the final calculated contribution rate is often very small. After careful study, it is not difficult to find that the growth rate of human capital investment in Shandong Province has been relatively slow for many years, resulting in a small contribution rate of human capital; (5) The output elasticity of institutional elements is 0.776 1, which is second only to the output elasticity of labor input and human capital input. Moreover, the contribution rate of institutional factors has been relatively stable, and it contributed a lot to economic growth in the early stage of reform and opening up, with a small contribution from 1998 to 2000, and remained stable at around 10% in other years.
3. According to the results of statistical analysis, summarize the characteristics of economic growth in Shandong Province, and put forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions from reality: gradually change the economic growth mode that relies too much on capital investment and improve the capital investment structure; Pay attention to the development of human resources, improve the quality of workers, and solve the transfer of rural surplus labor; Make full use of the contribution of foreign capital to economic growth, rationally guide the flow of foreign capital, adjust the structure of introducing foreign capital, and strengthen the supervision of foreign capital; Seize the favorable opportunity of system innovation, deepen reform and improve market mechanism; Attach importance to technological progress and accelerate technological innovation.
The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) The Cobb-Douglas production function is improved appropriately, and besides the basic labor and capital input, combined with various economic theories and the reality of Shandong Province, variables such as human capital input, foreign capital input and institutional factors are added, and the influence of various factor inputs on the economic growth of Shandong Province is considered more comprehensively; (2) Using principal component analysis and ridge regression estimation to estimate the model parameters. Considering the multiple * * * linearity between variables, at the expense of giving up unbiased least square method and certain accuracy, we seek a regression process with less influence but more practical results.
Keywords: economic growth factor input Cobb-Douglas production function factor contribution