201February 13 07: 56, "20 1 1 English: English Paper: Five Predictable Characteristics of Freezing Injury of Blizzard in Hunan [1]" was written by liuxue86.com English.

1968-1970 In July, the flu broke out in Hong Kong.

1975- 1977 disaster chain:1975 in may-1976 in February, a strong La Nina event with intensity of 5 1 occurred; 65438+June 0976-65438+March 0977, a strong El Nino event with intensity of 57 occurred; 1976 severe chilling injury occurred in the northeast; 1977 65438+1October 2 1 day, the rainy and snowy days in Hunan lasted 10 day. The invasion of cold air brought by strong cold wave not only brought heavy snow, but also caused the temperature to plummet. The lowest temperature in all places is extremely low, dropping to-10℃ to-18℃, and Wuhan's-18. 1℃ is the lowest in history, and the record has been maintained so far. Influenza broke out in Russia in May, 1977.

1954, 1957, 1969, 1972 and 1976 are the years of severe cold damage in northeast China [9], 1954 and1. The sunspot valley year (m) or m+ 1 occurring in the cold period of la madre is the same feature of snow disaster and freezing injury in Hunan.

According to the data of 1890-2004, we obtained six climatic characteristics of the epidemic influenza: being in the cold period of Ramade and its boundary; The previous year or two was a La Nina year with moderate intensity or above; The 1950s and 1970s were also the years of strong sandstorms in China. The year before and after is the year of Leng Xia in Northeast China (both 1950s and 1970s were years of severe low temperature damage); That year was an El Nino year with moderate intensity or above; That year is the year of sunspot valley m or peak m, m- 1, m+ 1 or M+ 1. 5 1- paper net 1889- 1890, 1900,1918-19,/. The seventh feature is that the year was an abnormal year of strong tidal oscillation in winter or summer [3], and the eighth feature is the world influenza epidemic in 1-4 years after freezing injury in Hunan. The last three world influenza outbreaks all meet these two characteristics. The freezing injury in Hunan is a precursor to the world influenza epidemic.

According to the law of the disaster chain in the cold phase of la madre in the early stage, if the influenza broke out in 2008 (m+ 1), its intensity would be weak (similar to1977); If the influenza outbreak occurs at 20 1 1 year (m), its intensity is strong (similar to 1957 and 1968). 2008 and 20 1 1 are both possible El Ni? o years, and the accurate prediction of El Ni? o events in 2006 and La Ni? a events in 2007 provides reliable prediction methods [3-5, 10].

According to the disaster chain law of la madre in cold season [11-kloc-0/4], I pointed out in September 2007 that La Nina will bring autumn flood, freezing damage and influenza [14]. In June 5438+1October1and June 5438+02, 2008, I continuously pointed out that the strong cold air activity and strong earthquakes in June 5438+0 were concentrated in the combination of strong tides A, B, C and D, and the natural disasters caused by combination A have been confirmed, so we should guard against the combination of strong tides B-. The cold air activity in China gradually increased from 10 to 13, and 19-22 reached its climax. We should be prepared for natural disasters such as strong winds, snowstorms, earthquakes and low temperature freezing [15, 16]. This prediction was confirmed by the freezing damage caused by the strongest snowstorm in southern China in the past 50 years [1].

According to the five characteristics, during the cold phase of la madre from 2000 to 2035, the possible low-value years of low-temperature freezing injury in Hunan are sunspot 20 18 and 2029, and it is predicted that it will be 20 16-20 17 La Nina year and 20 18 El Ni? o year [3-8

refer to

1. Jiang guocheng Director of Meteorology: Abnormal atmospheric circulation and snowstorm caused by La Nina event [EB/OL]. February 3, 2008 2 1:53 Xinhuanet.

2. Fang Xuanchang, Chen Xiao. The reason for the blizzard. The financial world. China Newsweek.

3. Yang Donghong, Yang Xuexiang. Climatic characteristics of influenza in the world. Meteorology of desert and oasis. 2007, 1(3): 1-8。

4. Yang Xuexiang. Cause and Verification of El Nino Event [J]. Journal of Nature.2004,26 (3):151-155.

5. Yang Donghong, Yang Xuexiang, Liu Cai. 65438+Indonesian earthquake and tsunami on February 26th, 2004 and global low temperature [J]. Progress in geophysics. 2006,2 1(3): 1023- 1027

6. Wei Influence of El Nino Event on Low Temperature Flood Disaster in Heilongjiang Province and Its Prediction [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters.2001,10 (3): 79-86.

7. Yu, people. 1954, 1964,1977-We overcame snowstorms and freezing injuries many times that year [EB/OL]. Date: 2008-0 1-3 1. Source:.

8. Kang Dujuan. Wang Huijun. Interdecadal change of sandstorm climate situation in northern China [J].5 1- Paper Net China Science Series D, 2005,35 (11):1096-102.

9. Week, week, week. Characteristics and prediction of circulation in cold damage years in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University, 200 1, 32 (1): 22-25

10. Lin Zhenshan, Zhao, Zhao. Solar eclipse-El Nino coefficient and its application [J]. Journal of Geophysics,1999,42 (6): 732-7