If the exchange rate and financial market turmoil caused by Britain's withdrawal from the EU is only a short-term phenomenon, the direct impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on China is not great. Considering China's economic volume and international status, the future trade and investment between Britain and the EU can only be further deepened, and there will be no obvious decline. The only change is that the EU has changed from China's nominal largest trading partner to the second largest trading partner, and the United States has risen to the first largest trading partner, with little other substantial influence.

2. Britain's withdrawal from the EU is not in line with China's original strategic intention.

In the future, there is limited room for China to influence the EU's China policy through its increasingly close relationship with Britain.

With the Asia-Pacific region squeezed by the United States and Japan, China has made great efforts to develop its increasingly close political and economic relations with Britain in recent years, hoping to build it into a primary partner and an important fulcrum within the European Union, thus making breakthroughs in a series of "long-standing" issues such as lifting the ban on arms sales and recognizing China's full market economy status. 20/kloc-in March of 0/5, Britain was the first western country to announce that it would become a founding member of AIIB, and then Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland and other countries followed suit.

It will be difficult for China enterprises and Chinese-funded financial institutions to enter the huge and high-threshold European market with Britain as the bridgehead.

Many China enterprises and Chinese-funded financial institutions invest in the relatively free British economy, trying to use it as a springboard and radiation point to enter the EU market with more than 500 million potential consumers but strict supervision. If Britain leaves the European Union, China's important trade, investment and financial services will be hindered to some extent.

The strategy of accelerating the internationalization of RMB based on London Financial Center may be less than expected.

As a global financial center, London provides an important place for China to promote the internationalization of RMB in Europe and get familiar with the rules of international financial markets. According to the latest SWIFT data, Britain surpassed Singapore in April this year to become the second largest offshore RMB settlement center after China and Hongkong, with a market share of 6.3%. 20 15 10, China people's bank successfully issued 5 billion yuan of central bank bills in London. 2065438+May 2006, the Ministry of Finance of China also chose London to issue offshore RMB bonds outside Hong Kong for the first time. Since 20 13, Chinese-funded institutions such as ICBC and BOC have successively issued RMB bonds in London. After Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, with the scattered distribution of China enterprises and Chinese-funded financial institutions in Europe, it is unknown whether London can continue to be the largest RMB distribution center in Europe.

Turbulent European and global financial markets are not in China's interest.

Before Britain left the EU, the EU was China's largest trading partner. Britain's withdrawal from the EU will weaken and affect Britain and the EU, and bring some uncertainty to China. At the same time, if the impact of Britain's exit from the EU is out of control, it will lead to a deeper crisis, such as long-term turmoil or systemic risks in the global financial market, which will obviously be extremely unfavorable to China's economy, which is undergoing difficult transformation under the background of "three-phase superposition".

3. Britain's withdrawal from the EU may bring new strategic opportunities to China.

Although Britain will be hit after Brexit, it is still one of the five permanent members of the United Nations, an important member of the Group of Seven, and still has an important position and representation in western countries. For China, Britain's exit from the EU also means new strategic opportunities.

First of all, after Britain leaves the EU, Britain, which insists on free competition and pragmatism, will inevitably strengthen its relations with China, India and other emerging powers to make up for the losses caused by Britain's withdrawal from the EU. China and Britain may find opportunities for pragmatic cooperation on many major international political and economic issues, including sharing green emission reduction technologies, promoting a new round of global trade negotiations, and accelerating the reform of the International Monetary Fund.

Second, Britain enjoys greater autonomy in lifting the ban on arms sales and recognizing China's full market economy status, or it may make a breakthrough ahead of schedule.

Third, following Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, Britain will implement more free and open financial supervision measures to cope with the competition of financial centers in continental Europe. At the same time, we will strive for favorable trade, investment and financial policies as much as possible in the negotiations with the EU, and Chinese-funded enterprises and Chinese-funded financial institutions will also benefit from it.

Fourthly, in the future, British enterprises and assets may be hit to some extent, and their prices will drop relatively, which will provide more M&A opportunities for China enterprises and Chinese financial institutions.