The economy has entered a new normal
20 14 Central Economic Work Conference profoundly expounded the characteristics of the new economic normal from nine aspects: consumption demand, investment demand, export and balance of payments, production capacity and industrial organization mode, relative advantages of production factors, market competition characteristics, resource and environment constraints, accumulation and resolution of economic risks, resource allocation mode and macro-control mode.
Liu Yuanchun (Executive Dean, National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China): The old normal of China's economy is what we often call high speed, which is supported by two "highs", one is high investment and the other is high export. These two highs lead to high investment, high energy consumption and high pollution, so they add up to the "six highs" characteristics of China's economic growth miracle in the past 30 years, forming the old normal.
Now the old normal of "six high models" is unsustainable. First, the basis of growth has changed, especially high exports, which are gradually restricted by global economic turmoil; Second, the basis of high investment has changed, and some long-term changes have taken place in the basis of demographic dividend and high savings. We have entered an aging society, and the savings rate has not continued to rise. Since 2008, the savings rate has declined. More importantly, there are some problems in the foundation on which traditional growth depends. The so-called "new normal" is to shift from the traditional growth model to the sustainable growth model. In this process, it is very important to change the speed, structure, policy basis, dynamic mechanism and source of growth.
Long Yongtu (former Vice Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation): I very much agree with President Liu's speech. We should look at this new normal positively.
A very important feature of the new normal is the slowdown in growth. The double-digit growth that I have been used to for more than 30 years has gradually become accustomed to slowing down, that is, the growth rate of 7% or 8%, so it gives people the impression that the growth rate has slowed down. I think it is still necessary to enhance confidence, have strategic thinking, and look at the new normal with a positive eye.
The second feature is that the economic transformation has also accelerated. Many people ask what transformation means. Now, we regard it as a basket and put everything in it. We think it is mainly from pursuing the quantity of economic growth to pursuing the quality of economic development. The most important performance is that after economic growth, the people get benefits, people's livelihood is improved, and society is more fair.
The third feature is to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure. We are eliminating and withdrawing some surplus industries and creating some new industries, such as new energy vehicles and new materials. There is also accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
It is different from the new normal of other countries.
Compared with countries such as Europe and America, our new normal is obviously different. One is from the bottom and the other is from the top. Although they are all called the new normal, they have different meanings.
Liu Yuanchun: For the United States, the "new normal" mainly refers to the governance and adjustment after the financial crisis. One of the most important themes is deleveraging. Through a large number of asset acquisitions and a large number of currency issues, the economy has returned to a relatively stable recovery state. It should be said that the new normal of the United States is relatively short-lived. Since March 20 14, many financial indicators and economic parameters in the United States, including real estate parameters, have returned to the pre-crisis level. According to the Fed's thinking, its unconventional policies may end in the middle of this year.
But relatively speaking, we have some more important changes, that is, our basic parameters have changed, the total working-age population has begun to decline, the total married working-age population has also declined since last year, and the demographic dividend has changed a little. The reform dividend built over the past 30 years of reform and opening up has gradually decreased, and we are looking for the second round of reform dividend. The second is that there are some variations in basic parameters, which leads to the adjustment of growth trajectory and mode. Third, the institutional foundation, from the primary market economy established by reform and opening up to a more advanced socialist market economy. The superposition of these three factors forms the basis of China's new normal.
Long Yongtu: In fact, our new normal is obviously different from that of Europe, America and other countries, because what the United States said is that after the global financial crisis, the economy hit the bottom and then returned to a relative growth trend, which is such a recovery. We have returned from the highest growth rate to a moderate sustainable development that pays attention to quality. So one comes from the bottom and the other from the top. Although they are all called the new normal, they have different meanings.
Rational interpretation of consumption and investment
In fact, investment and consumption are not contradictory. At present, China cannot do without investment. The key is who invests and how the income is. If there is a large amount of private investment, the foundation of our development will be very solid.
Liu Yuanchun: In the short term, there is no doubt that if a society invests too much and consumes too little, it will lead to structural problems. But in the medium and long term, we generally believe that consumption does not constitute the core of growth. If consumption is the core of growth, then we can spend money desperately. In fact, in the medium term, the core of a big country like China is not consumption, but innovation, or the improvement of national quality, and the quality of our overall capital formation. This is its core.
What will the second one see? That is, there is no contradiction between investment and consumption, but there is a problem behind it, that is, there is a problem with our income distribution structure and national savings structure, and the people lack the basis and system of consumption. Therefore, we should adjust the labor relations and build a normal and sustainable labor relations. This is a key point of reform.
Long Yongtu: When it comes to economic growth and mode change, investment seems to be a bad thing. In fact, in our developing country, we will still play the role of investing in this carriage for a long time. Investment is not necessarily a bad thing, the key is to have an effect.
Liu Yuanchun: Investment is not a question of high or low, but a question of who will invest and what. For example, India indicated that it would learn from China to invest, especially in infrastructure and basic education. We often find that public opinion is like a pendulum, and we seem to be abandoning what other emerging countries want to learn from us. We should reflect on this and not go from one extreme to the other.
Long Yongtu: At this stage, China cannot do without investment. The key is who invests and how the income is. If there is a lot of private investment, ordinary people will invest their money in cultural industries, medical care and education, then the foundation of our development will be very solid.
Su Peike (Financial Commentator): To make people spend, there are several problems that must be solved.
First of all, he needs money to spend. What we need to solve is the problem of income distribution. Compared with the government and enterprises, the growth rate of personal savings is slowing down. In this situation, it is necessary to reform the income distribution system so that ordinary people can have money in their pockets.
The second is to dare to consume. If we improve the social security system and solve a series of problems including medical care and old-age care through financial input, then ordinary people will definitely dare to spend.
Liu Yuanchun: Let's talk about the relationship between economic growth and employment. Under the new normal, we need to pay attention to several typical facts. First, GDP growth slowed down, but there was no obvious deflation. Second, although the GDP growth rate has declined, there has been no large-scale unemployment. On the contrary, there is a shortage of migrant workers, it is difficult to recruit workers, and wage income continues to grow. Why is there such a change? The subtext behind it is that every GDP growth of China 1% will lead to changes in employment, which can also be said to be changes in industrial structure.
Long Yongtu: Why did the economic growth slow down, but the employment increased? Because the development speed of service industry exceeds that of manufacturing industry, the GDP of the same unit and the jobs created by service industry are 30% more than that of manufacturing industry and real estate industry. Although our GDP growth rate has slowed down in the past two years, the employment rate has increased, and the task of creating more than10 million jobs every year has been overfulfilled, which is very important.
How does the government act?
In a sense, a series of measures to comprehensively deepen reform is to digest some problems that existed and accumulated in the past. Only by solving these problems can we start from a new starting point and develop healthily and sustainably.
Liu Yuanchun: We emphasize that interval control has several considerations. The first consideration is to make people's income level develop and reform in the process of continuous improvement, which requires maintaining a certain speed. Second, employment is the biggest livelihood. To maintain the employment level of around130,000, according to our calculation, the GDP growth rate should be around 7.5%. In fact, the growth rate of 7. 1% can ensure that the number of new employees is100000.
Long Yongtu: If the service industry accounts for an increasing proportion, even if the growth rate is 7% or even 6.5%, it will create100000 to130000 jobs one day.
Zhu Xu (media observer): The new normal is a brand-new topic and a new challenge for China. This involves the relationship between the government and the market, that is, in the positioning of the government, is it the dominant positioning or the service positioning? Is it a means of actively throwing money, or is it prudent? Is the goal driven by political achievements or something else?
Liu Yuanchun: The overall goal of comprehensively deepening reform is to improve and develop the Socialism with Chinese characteristics system and promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. Through a series of measures such as simple administration and decentralization, the government has given the market room for expansion, giving the market room for innovation and self-allocation of resources. This is the core project of economic reform or modernization of economic governance. After the completion of this project, a new foundation will be established for economic growth.
At present, special emphasis is placed on the transformation of government functions, and at the same time, we should clearly realize that the transformation of functions will not lead to the complete withdrawal of the government from the market. If the government's power is properly used and exercised completely within the legal framework and under the supervision of the sun, I think this is a good thing for the whole economic development. We believe that the goal of reform can be summarized in three sentences. The first is a fair and unified big market; The second is a strong central government with a promising government ruled by law, rather than simply saying that it is not this logic that we make the market bigger and the government smaller; The third is low level and extensive welfare. These three are our medium and long-term goals, and they are unified with each other.
Long Yongtu: Now we must digest some problems brought by the rapid development in the past. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward a series of measures to comprehensively deepen the reform, which, in a sense, is to digest some problems existing and accumulated in the past. Only by solving these problems can we start from a new starting point and develop healthily and sustainably. Therefore, while seeing the achievements, it is very important to solve the existing problems, so that China's economy can maintain the new normal growth.
Liu Yuanchun: Where does the system reform begin? Now that the top-level design has been basically completed, the problem has begun to be solved, which is the anti-corruption we are concerned about. It is a very important stage to break the traditional interest structure through anti-corruption and form the vitality and understanding of reform. Of course, the goal of the current comprehensive reform is to modernize the national governance system and governance capacity, and one of the most important cores is the rule of law, which is the first breakthrough I talked about. The second important breakthrough point is the adjustment of the state-owned system, and the next step is the adjustment of the governance structure of state-owned enterprises. In addition, there are several other key points in the economic field, such as financial system reform and fiscal and taxation system reform.
Growth opportunities of enterprises
Under the new normal, enterprises have many opportunities. The consumption-oriented service industry will grow very fast, innovation is still the core of enterprises, and the fulcrum between service and innovation is producer service industry, which is an important growth foundation for us in the future.
Liu Yuanchun: There are many opportunities for enterprises. Looking at the future development trend, the trend of structural adjustment and the foundation of new growth momentum, we will find that: first, the service industry with consumption as the theme is growing very fast. In fact, except for 2009, the growth rate in other years is basically 2%, prices have been rising, and the performance of listed companies in service industry is still good. Secondly, innovation remains the core of China's future growth. Our country has established a lot of industrial funds, paid a lot of taxes and provided various kinds of support, and we have become the second largest patent applicant after the United States. Third, the fulcrum between service and innovation is producer service industry, which is an important growth foundation for us in the future. So you will see that Alibaba is the embodiment of one or several innovations, and we will look for the next Alibaba-like enterprise in the future. If innovative enterprises blossom everywhere in China, I think the second golden growth period of our country is just around the corner.
Long Yongtu: There are many opportunities for enterprises. For example, people pay more and more attention to the quality of food, air, life, eating, drinking and sleeping, and pursue higher standards, which brings many opportunities to enterprises. In particular, China's traditional manufacturing industry is facing a big upgrade. What is the core problem to be solved? It is the service industry. From upstream to downstream, many high-end producer services can be developed around the manufacturing industry. On the one hand, a large number of jobs have been created and many new forms of employment have been created. On the other hand, the traditional manufacturing industry on which we depend can be upgraded. In addition, the demand of ordinary people is increasing, and the consumption of culture, health and education is also increasing. In the economic transformation of China, these new fields will bring many development opportunities to enterprises. ?