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65438+1October 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic and population data of 202 1.

In 20021year, the gross domestic product reached 1 14.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 8. 1% at constant prices over the previous year, and an average increase of 5. 1% in two years.

According to the average annual exchange rate of 6.45, China's GDP in 202 1 year reached 17.7 trillion US dollars, exceeding 3/4 of that of the United States and reaching a record high.

Compared with the economy, the population situation is not optimistic. The birth population is approaching the10 million mark, and the population growth pattern may be reversed.

According to the data, at the end of 2002120,000, the national population was14120,000, an increase of 480,000 over the end of last year.

The annual birth population was 6.5438+0.062 million, with a birth rate of 7.52 ‰. Death population 1.0 1.4 million, population mortality rate 7.1.8 ‰; The natural population growth rate is 0.34‰.

Compared with 2020, the birth population in China has dropped from120,000 to 10.62 million, a decrease of about10.40 million. Compared with 20 1617.86 million after the release of the two children, it has decreased by more than 7 million.

At the same time, the birth rate dropped from 8.52‰ to 7.52‰, down by 1‰.

Compared with the stage high of 20 12 years 14.57‰, it is close to the waist.

Kaifeng's new book, National Economic Strategy, is produced by Tsinghua University Publishing House. Click the picture to view it.

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Due to the superposition of declining birthrate and aging, the national population growth situation may be reversed.

According to the data, in 20021year, the national population only increased by 480,000 people, compared with 2.04 million people in the previous year, and the growth in 20 12 years nine years ago exceeded100,000 people.

Behind this, the continuous decline in the natural population growth rate is the main reason.

The natural population growth rate is equal to the birth rate-death rate.

The birth rate continues to decline, and the mortality rate remains high, which naturally drives the population growth rate to decline.

The data shows that in 20021year, the natural population growth rate of the whole country was only 0.34‰, compared with 1.45‰ in the previous year and as high as 7.43‰ in the previous year.

According to the National Statistical Yearbook, in recent years 10, the national normal mortality rate was above 7‰, that is to say, if the birth rate drops below 7‰, negative population growth will come.

Experts generally predict that before 2025, the national population may face negative growth.

Judging from the current situation, this time may be earlier.

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Why is the birth rate declining?

The reason behind this is well known. Economic growth, change of ideas, improvement of women's status and improvement of social security ... have all changed people's understanding of fertility, and the traditional thinking of four generations living under one roof, carrying on the family line and raising children to prevent old age has gradually lost its market.

Of course, the existence of parenting education costs such as housing prices and school districts is also the crux behind it.

When young people run out of "six wallets" in big cities, it is difficult to buy a house they just need. When many families have to accept the results of speculation in school districts for their children's study, the demand for childbirth will naturally be affected.

These are long-term factors. The problem is that in recent years, the birth policy has been continuously loosened, and the comprehensive two-child and three-child policies have been implemented one after another. Why can't we reverse the birth situation?

An intuitive reason is that the influence of COVID-19 epidemic and the popularization of vaccination have affected the marriage rate and birth rate to some extent.

The existence of occasional epidemics, the popularization of vaccines and needles have made many young people postpone marriage and family planning.

It can be expected that once the epidemic is over and the comprehensive three-child effect is superimposed, the birth rate may rebound slightly, but it is difficult to reverse it.

Whatever the reason, from the international experience, once the fertility situation is reversed, it is more difficult to reverse the past.

The central bank's working paper that broke out last year has a very accurate discussion on this:

To realize that the demographic situation has changed, we must realize that the demographic dividend was used comfortably at that time and was a debt to be repaid afterwards.

We should realize that population inertia is a great power across generations, and its reaction will lead to population changes in the opposite direction; It is necessary to realize that education and scientific and technological progress can hardly make up for the decline in population.

This means that encouraging fertility is not only as simple as relaxing the population policy, but also involves a series of problems such as high housing prices and education.

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How big is the impact of the decline in birth population?

Population is the long-term spear of assets. A large population is not a good thing, and a small population is not a good thing. The key to all this lies in the demographic structure.

This can be seen intuitively through the "population pyramid".

There are many young people and few old people, which is an ideal population structure. If the declining birthrate and aging coexist, the impact will be far-reaching.

First, population is not a burden, but a resource. Once the labor supply is reduced, it will inevitably drag down economic growth.

Secondly, the problem of declining birthrate is quite serious, but what is more serious is that the trend of declining birthrate and aging overlaps, which will bring double problems.

The pension in China adopts the "pay-as-you-go" model, and the pension paid by young people has been used for providing for the aged. Once there is a gap in the future pension income and expenditure, how to solve the future pension of this generation of young people has become a difficult problem.

Third, the birth population is decreasing. Once the population grows negatively, it will inevitably drag down asset prices, and there will not be enough "takers" in the future.

The data shows that the post-80s population in China is as high as 223 million, and the post-90s population is 65.438+0.67 billion, while the post-00s and post-00s populations are 65.438+0.58 billion and 65.438+0.68 billion respectively.

This means that the population after 00 and 10 is 60 million less than that after 80 and 90.

In the next 20 years, the population may decrease further.

You know, young people are not only creators, but also important supports of real estate. The decline in intergenerational population, especially the decline in the proportion of young people, will become the biggest black swan in real estate.

Of course, in this case, the impact of population inflow in big cities is not obvious, but ordinary cities may face the pressure of basic population.

By then, third-and fourth-tier cities and shrinking cities without siphon capacity will face new challenges.